LT Profits
Manhattan vs Iona
We think that there is a surprise in store when the 7-11 Manhattan Jaspers host the 13-6 Iona Gaels in Friday night MAAC action on ESPNU.
Yes, Manhattan has lost three straight games to fall to 2-6 in the conference, but they covered the spread in two of those losses, both on the road with one being at conference kingpin Siena, and the only home loss during this streak was in overtime. The Jaspers have been cashing tickets, going 3-1 ATS in their last four games, and they are outscoring their Division I home opponents by a nice average of +8.3 points this season.
What we like about this matchup is that Iona relies on its defense and Manhattan simply does not turn the ball over. In fact, according to the Pomeroy Ratings, the Jaspers only turn the ball over on 16.0 percent of their possessions, which is amazingly eighth best in the entire country.
When Iona is not turning people over, they become a rather ordinary basketball team. Sure, they are averaging a respectable 68.6 points per game vs. DI foes, but many of those points have come off of steals and turnovers. The fact of the matter is that Iona has an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 1.016 points per possession, which ranks just 156 in the country.
Also, with this being a rare nationally televised game for these teams, it should be a great Friday night atmosphere here in the Big Apple, and that should only boost the performance of the home club even more. Speaking of home teams, they are 12-5-1 in this head-to-head series, including a 52-39 Jaspers win here last season.
Look for that home dominance in this series to continue for at least one more game tonight.
Pick: Manhattan +3
Tom Freese
Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks are in first place in the NBA Soutwest Division with 27-14 record. In fact every team in their Division has a winning record. The Mavericks are led by future Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki and his 25.5 points a game. Dirk also grabs 8 rebounds a night. Shooting guard Jason Terry scores 16.5 points a game. Strong forward Josh Howard puts up 12.5 points a night. Forward Josh Howard puts up 12.5 points a night and forward Shawn Marion scores 11.6 points a game and he grabs 6.5 rebounds a night. Point guard Jason Kidd scores 8.9 points a game and he 9.2 assists a game. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of under 40%. Philadelphia is 13-27 on the year despite having 7 double digit scorers. They are led in scoring by Andre Iguodala and his 18 points a game. Guard Lou Williams scores 15.2 points a game. Thaddeus Young puts up 14.1 points a night. Elton Brand and Marreese Speights score 14.1 and 13.7 points a game. The Sixers downfall is their defense as they allow 101 points a game. Philadelphia is 0-7 ATS their last 7 games as home underdogs. PLAY ON DALLAS -
Scott Rickenbach
Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs
PICK: San Antonio Spurs -6
The Rockets hung on for an overtime win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday afternoon but they previously had won just two of their first seven games in the month of January. The time off now, Tuesday through Thursday, won’t exactly help the “flow” for a Rockets team that has defeated the three subpar teams it’s faced (MIL, MIN, NY) but lost every other game this month. Against Phoenix, the Lakers, New Orleans, Miami, and Charlotte the Rockets came out on the wrong end of the scoreboard. Now the Rockets must deal with a Spurs team that was 16-6 their last 22 entering Wednesday’s home against the Jazz. Even though facing Utah is a big game for the Spurs, the fact that they were at home for that game and will be at home for all their games the rest of this month, is absolutely a big positive.
Coming up short against the Jazz Wednesday makes this game versus Houston have even more emphasis for the Spurs. Until the Rockets prove they can rise up and beat a winning team again they must be faded. Without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady this team is a shell of it’s former self. Also, they now have a 6’6 starting center in Chuck Hayes. Though we respect Hayes we also know that he’s going to have his hands full with the Spurs frontcourt in this match-up. When these teams met in November Hayes was held scoreless and went 0-8 from the field and grabbed just six rebounds. Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess combined for 36 points and 26 rebounds in that game and the Spurs rolled to the 8 point win. This time around, look for the Spurs to dominate by an even bigger margin. Consider a small play on San Antonio in the NBA on Friday night.
Larry Ness
Chicago Bulls @ Phoenix Suns
PICK: Phoenix Suns -6.5
The Bulls are 4-15 SU (7-12 ATS) on the road this year and tonight continue their season-high, seven-game road trip in Phoenix against the Suns. The Bulls average just 94.5 PPG (27th) on the season and that number drops to 92.6 PPG on the road. Meanwhile, the Suns are the NBA's highest scoring team (109.9 PPG) and its best shooting team (48.9 percent). Phoenix features six double-digit scorers, its five starters, led by Stoudemire (21.0-8.7) and Nash (18.6-11.2 APG), plus sixth-man Barbosa (10.8). The Suns have been awful away from home after an excellent start (Phoenix has lost 11 of its last 12 on the road!) but they are 16-4 SU (12-8 ATS) at home, failing to score 100 points just once while averaging 114.0 PPG. Head coach Alvin Gentry has used Robin Lopez at center in place of Channing Frye and Barbosa in Jason Richardson’s spot the last two games but who knows how long that will last. I'm not sure it makes much of a difference, especially against the Bulls, who after winning at Sacramento in their first road game vs a Western Conference opponent, have gone 0-6 SU and ATS since, losing on average by 16.8 PPG! Lay the points with the Suns.
Sam Martin
Portland Trail Blazers at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers
Despite Bostons poor play of late, the Celtics continue to be listed as huge favorites. Theyve lost four of their last five, with all four losses coming in the favorite role. Portland hasnt been playing awful, and this is just too many points to be giving up to a struggling Boston team. Well take the points and watch Portland battle all night with the SU winner being decided in the game?s final minutes. Play on Portland.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Celtics -10
I expect the return of Kevin Garnett to give the Celtics a big lift tonight against a Blazers team that will be without Brandon Roy. Boston has lost 3 in a row so it will be extremely motivated as well. The Trail Blazers are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Celtics and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Boston. The last time Portland visited the Garden, we saw the Celtics post a 93-78 win. I expect a similar result tonight as Portland will have a difficult time scoring without their star against a solid Boston defense. Lay the number.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Phoenix Suns -6
Bottom Line: The Suns have certainly cooled off since their fast start, but that is mostly because they have played a large amount of road contests. They remain a dominant 16-4 at home on the season, winning by an average of 9.5 points in those games. The Bulls have started to play better ball, but they still don't have things figured out on the road where they are just 4-15 on the season, losing by an average of 9.2 points. The problem is Chicago's anemic offense which is only averaging 92.6 ppg on the road. I just don't think the Bulls have enough fire power to hang with a Suns team putting up 114 ppg at home this season. The Bulls are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Suns.
Joseph D'Amico
Indiana Pacers vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons -3½
Over the last few weeks, Detroit has had a surge, winning 4 of their L5 both SU and ATS. They have been doing it because of rebounds. The Piston's have out-rebounded opponenets 230-155 in their L5 outings. They have owned the glass. Playing alot of their games with 2 Centers and 1 Forward has payed off for Detroit. They face an ailing Indiana squad that has dropped 3 in a row. The Pacer's have had alot of issues TY, particularly on the road where they are a dismal 4-18 SU and are being outscored by 10.1 PPG. The Pacer's have 2 players in Guard Luther Head and Forward Tyler Hansbrough listed as doubful today. As far as I can see, Indiana's only edge in this matchup is their bench. Without Head and Hansbrough 100%, they can't match up with the striding Detroit team in any category. The favorite in this series is 7-3 ATS their L10 meetings. The Pacer's are 0-5 ATS their L5 vs. the NBA Central and 3-14 ATS their L17 as a 'dog of .5-4.5 points. Detroit wins and covers.
Nelly
Memphis – over Oklahoma City
This is an intriguing match-up between two of the rising teams in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is coming off three consecutive narrow wins, including winning on the road the last two games by a combined total of five points. This makes for a third consecutive road games and fourth road game in a week for the Thunder. The favorite has covered in nine of the last twelve meetings between these teams and although the Thunder has been a viable road team this is a situation that any team would struggle in. Memphis has been playing great ball but the Grizzlies enter this game off a tough loss in New Orleans Wednesday night. Memphis has won nine consecutive home games and for the year Memphis is 13-6-1 ATS at home. Memphis is on a 16-5-1 ATS run overall and the Grizzlies are a team that continues to be doubted despite proving they are playoff ready with several big recent wins.
Bryan Leonard
Oklahoma City at Memphis
Both teams have been play on squads as of late rewarding their backers on a regular basis. But we would much rather trust the home team in a revenge situation. When young teams start to find themselves the first step to success is at home where they feel more comfortable. That's why many teams who are not used to success struggle on the road. Both these teams have proven themselves in their own backyard as of late especially the Grizzlies who are becoming a force in this building. With the line rather cheap and win and cover situation is a likely scenario.
PLAY MEMPHIS
GoodFella
MIN +4 vs NOH
Minnesota is coming off a tough 2 pt loss AT HOME to the Thunder on Wednesday as 7 pt dogs, and the Hornets are coming off a 2 pt HOME win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday & tonight is their 1st game of a 4 game West Coast roadie. New Orleans plays AT Denver tomorrow night--so this is a bit of a look ahead game here for the Hornets. The TWolves also have in season double revenge for tonights game--as they lost to New Orleans twice last month--including a one pt HOME LOSS to them as 3 pt favs back on Dec 9th. New Orleans is just (6-15 SU) on the road this season & they are (1-4 ATS L/5) games as a road favorite. Minnesota is (8-2 ATS L/10) games as a home underdog & I think this is another great spot for the TWolves in this role tonight. Grab the points with Minnesota tonight & look for the outright win.
Lenny Del Genio
MIA -3 vs WAS
The Heat come off an ugly 104-69 loss in Charlotte Wednesday night and hits the road tonight to play division rival Washington. Historically, Miami has performed well on the road when coming off a loss by 20 or more, going 20-7 ATS since '96. The Wizards have been a terrible bet in division play the last two seasons, going 5-18 ATS. They have been particularly horrible against the Heat at the Verizon Center, going 2-14-1 ATS since 2003-04 and 5-23 ATS since '96! Miami has a revenge for a 10-point home loss in November. Take Miami.
Scott Delaney
Miami at Washington
Coming off a humiliating 104-65 loss in Charlotte on Wednesday, the Heat will rebound to take this one in D.C. This is the perfect spot for a bounce back, that’s for sure, as the Heat have won six of seven against the Wizards, and are averaging 101.7 points on 49.6 percent shooting during their three-game road winning streak in this Southeast Division rivalry.
And not only are the Heat looking to avenge Wednesday’s setback, but they’re also looking for revenge after they had their six-game winning streak in the series come to an end with a 94-84 setback on November 27 at American Airlines Arena. Not only has Miami won three straight in Washington, but it has won 10 of its last 13 trips to DC.
At the window, the Heat has also covered seven of the last eight meetings, while the road team is on a 23-6 spread streak. They’re on additional ATS runs of 8-1 when visiting teams with a losing home record, 4-1 after a straight-up loss and 8-3 when playing on one day’s rest. Conversely, the Wizards are on ATS slides of 9-23 after an ATS cover, 6-20 in intradivision play and 2-9 when hosting teams with a losing road record. Lay the chalk.
2♦ MIAMI HEAT
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the Dallas Mavericks. This is a fickle bunch, but a bunch I trust a lot more on the road than I do at home. The Mavs are in the midst of an East Coast roadie that has seen them win two of their first three including an impressive nine-point win over Boston. For the season, the Mavs have won 15 of 22 games away from home and giving just a small number on the road is just what the doctor ordered tonight. After a sub-par one-point win at Washington Wednesday night, the Mavs look to turn it around in Philly against a Sixers team that has beaten Dallas just two times in the last 10 tries and haven't beaten the Mavs since early 2008. These two teams are clearly headed in opposite directions and the Mavs will come out more focused tonight than they did in Washington Wednesday. Philly just doesn't have an answer for Dirk Nowitzki and I see him scoring at least 30 again tonight. It's all Mavs.
3♦ DALLAS
Michael Cannon
Dallas -2' at PHILADELPHIA
I am now 68-49-3 with my last 120 free plays.
Take the Mavs as the small road chalk over the 76ers.
Normally I would be inclined to go against Dallas in this spot. This marks the fourth road game in six days for the Mavs, so fatigue will be an issue.
But Philly is so terrible I just can’t take them at this short of a price.
The 76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Friday games and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 at home.
Dallas has actually played better on the road this year (15-7 SU) than at home (13-7 SU).
Take the Mavericks minus the small number as they grab the road win and cover.
3♦ DALLAS