Drew Gordon
Dallas at PHILADELPHIA +2'
42-26-3 roll L71 Free Plays (10-3 L13), incl. the Cavaliers over the Lakers last night! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Mavs/76ers match up.
This is an intriguing match up for a variety of reasons, but let's start by looking at each team's recent play. True, there isn't much to cheer about in Philly, BUT I was impressed by recent covers against New Orleans and Sacramento. Its interesting that bettors seem to recognize Philly's inconsistency, but aren't willing to take the same look at Dallas. Guys, I know they beat the Celtics a couple days (one of my recent 200K Top Play winners), but they also got smashed at Toronto and barely beat Washington in their two other road games this trip!
From a match up standpoint, bettors seem to have forgotten their last meeting. A razor close, 104-102 Dallas SU win, but Philly cover as a 12-point road dog! True, Brand was still contributing for the 76ers back then, but overall I see a Philly team that CAN match up with a disinterested Dallas team in this one. Young and Iguodala both were solid, and with Iverson and Williams playing decent ball in the backcourt, I can see Terry and Kidd having some trouble.
Finally, with almost 90% of the betting public on the Mavericks, explain to me why this line is shrinking? It opened at -3 and is now down to -2', which is unusual with so much of the public riding Dallas (reverse line movement, albeit a small move). This points to some sharp money flowing in on the home dog here. In the end, people who bet the NBA know anything can happen on any given night, and while I know its not easy to back a team like Philly, its the right play here.
Take Philadelphia plus the points over Dallas in this NBA match up.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA
Chris Jordan
Portland at BOSTON -10
Perfect timing for The Big Ticket. The Celtics could use their big man back, as they’ve gone 4-6 since Kevin Garnett has been sidelined, and have allowed 99.4 points per game, a huge jump from the league-best 91.9 points they allowed before his right knee injury. Overall, they’ve been mired in a 4-8 slump since he’s been hampered by it, a far cry from how the Celtics looked without him last season, when they went 18-7 while he was on the shelf.
Nonetheless, Boston’s huge boost couldn’t come at a better time. There won’t be a lot of pressure on him tonight, as the Blazers have once again become a perimeter-oriented team since Greg oden and Joel Przybilla have been lost for the season. Portland ranks last in the league in points in the paint with 34.2 per game, so Garnett won’t necessarily have a physical chore tonight. That should keep on the floor long enough to be effective on the offensive end.
Overall, Boston should be able to manhandle the similarly short-handed Trail Blazers, who will be without Brandon Roy, who reinjured his hamstring Wednesday night at Philadelphia. That won’t bode well, as Portland has lost five straight in Boston.
The Celtics are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 meetings with Portland, while they’ve covered five of their last six meetings with Northwest Division teams. I like the chalk here, as it’s the perfect opportunity for the Celtics to take advantage of a West coast team that will be playing its third road game in five nights.
5♦ BOSTON CELTICS
Stephen Nover
Oklahoma City at MEMPHIS -3'
Perhaps no teams have improved as much this season as Oklahoma City and Memphis. But circumstances make the Grizzlies the choice to cover this small number.
Memphis has won its last nine home contests. The Grizzlies are 13-6-1 ATS at home this season. They are 12-4 in their last 16 overall games.
The Grizzlies have only been on the road once since Jan. 9, while the Thunder is playing its third road game in five days. The Thunder has a big game on Saturday against the Cavaliers.
The Grizzlies will be extremely motivated in this matchup, not just to protect their home winning streak but to gain revenge. The Thunder upset them as two-point road underdogs, 102-94, last month.
Memphis had an off-night in that loss making just 4-of-18 shots from 3-point range and hitting only 58 percent of their free throws. Zach Randolph, O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay shot a combined 20-for-60 from the field in that contest. Those three are all playing at a very high level right now.
3♦ MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Brett Atkins
Scored the easy free winner on Thursday as the Nuggets crushed the Clippers in Denver. Tonight I've got a strong college hoops winner as I lay the small chalk with Iona as the Gaels visit Manhattan.
Nothing has really slowed down Iona lately and don’t expect Manhattan to put up much resistance today. The Gaels have won four straight and eight of 10 and they’ve been getting it done in blowout fashion.
Iona crushed Rider last time out 72-59, cashing as an eight-point home favorite. But the Gaels have also been rock solid on the highway, winning four of six while they were becoming road warriors on a six-game trip that went from Dec. 23 to Jan. 11. They won their last two on the road with ease, crushing Rider and Loyola-Maryland.
For the Gaels, Scott Machado can play, putting in 20 points and grabbing six rebounds for Iona against Rider. He get’s great support from Alejo Rodriguez and Kyle Smyth, with Rodriguez doing the dirty work of banging inside and scratching out his points.
Manhattan heavily slants to one player – Rico Pickett. He chucked up 19 shots and 26 points in an 83-68 road loss at Siena.
The home team in this series came out unharmed in last year’s season clashes, with Iona getting a 71-51 home win on Jan. 24 and then on Feb. 9, going to Manhattan and falling 52-39 as a one-point favorite.
Iona is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games and 4-0 ATS overall. Manhattan is just 12-29-1 ATS in its last 42 games after a straight-up loss. Iona is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and they’ll improve to 5-1 after tonight.
5♦ IONA
Jay McNeil
I came up short Thursday backing Washington against UCLA with my free play, dropping my record to 17-13 over the last 30 days. But I've got an NBA play today that will give me a quick bounce back!
Now I'm not saying the Bobcats are going to win in Atlanta today, but I definitely like them to give the Hawks a good fight in this one, and it actually wouldn't surprise me if Charlotte did pull of an upset.
The Bobcats might be the hottest team in the NBA right now, having won six straight games, including a 104-65 home rout of Miami in their last game.
Charlotte is 9-1 overall in 2010, and Stephen Jackson is a big reason why, as he is averaging 23 ppg during the team's six-game winning streak.
The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Atlanta, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the teams. Charlotte is also on ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 6-2 in road games, 4-1 as an underdog and 6-2 as a road 'dog. Take the Bobcats to stay close tonight and cover the points.
2♦ CHARLOTTE
Joel Tyson
Roy doubtful, Garnett probable = inflated line on Friday in Boston.
Portland has been hanging tough despite numerous injuries this season, and they are above .500 against the spread on the road this year at 11-9.
Boston has been burning money for their backers on the parquet floor this season, as the Celtics are just 6-12 against the spread at home this season.
Going to take the generous spot, and back the Blazers to come through with the cover.
1♦ PORTLAND
Pete Angelo
Chicago at Phoenix
Phoenix might be coming off a huge win Wednesday night, but I am not easily impressed - or trapped - when I see a team win by 24 over the worst entry in the league.
The Nets aren't competition, but the Bulls will be.
Chicago, despite its road woes, has won and covered two straight meetings while it is on a 4-2 ATS run when these two get together.
This should be a competitive game, and given the fact Phoenix has lost four of five overall and five of seven to the books, I'll take the points with the smart plays here.
2♦ CHICAGO BULLS
Chuck O'Brien
Take the Rockets plus the points at the Spurs in Friday’s NBA action.
Can’t trust San Antonio to cover this kind of number with the way its offense is struggling right now. The Spurs have tallied 76, 86, 97 and 98 points in their last four contests, losing three of the four both SU and ATS. As for the Rockets, they’ve gone over 100 points in five of their last six games, averaging 106 ppg during this span.
Yes, Houston has had trouble on the road recently, losing five in a row and six out of seven, failing to cash in all seven games. But only twice in those seven non-covers were the Rockets not competitive (102-87 loss at Orlando; 108-83 loss at Cleveland). Another reason to like the Rockets is they come into this contest well-rested, as they’ve been on the court just once since last Friday (and that was Monday’s 101-98 overtime win over the Bucks). By the same token, the aging Spurs are playing their fifth game since last Friday (and as previously noted, they’ve lost three of the first four).
The visitor has taken three straight meetings in this divisional rivalry (all in upset fashion), and Houston has cashed in six of its last eight trips to San Antonio.
3♦ HOUSTON ROCKETS
Jeff Benton
My six-day free-play winning streak was snapped Thursday with Arkansas coming up short against Florida. I’ll get back on track Friday in the NBA by backing the Thunder plus the points at Memphis.
How freakin’ good is Kevin Durant? The third-year pro has already established himself as one of the top-five scorers in the league, right there with guys like Kobe, LeBron, D-Wade and Nowitzki. He comes into this game having scored – get this! – at least 25 points in 16 consecutive games, going for 30 or more 12 times (including in six of the last seven).
It’s not just about Durant, though. With guys like forward Jeff Green (drafted with Durant) and second-year point guard Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City has one of the most dynamic young trios in basketball – hence the reason the Thunder (24-18) have already matched last year’s victory total.
True, their opponent tonight is red hot. The Grizzlies, who are coming off a heartbreaking two-second loss at New Orleans, are 12-4 SU and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games, and have won nine straight at home (and are 15-5 and 13-6-1 ATS in their building this year). That said, Durant and the Thunder have proven to be a nightmare matchup for the Grizzlies, who have lost three straight and five of six in this rivalry (both SU and ATS). During this six-game stretch, Oklahoma City has sprung three outright upsets in Memphis, including a 102-94 win as a two-point road ‘dog in the season’s first meeting on Dec. 11.
Finally, while the Thunder did come up short against the number in Wednesday’s victory at Minnesota (94-92 as a seven-point road favorite), they’ve failed to cover in consecutive games just twice this season (which is now halfway finished). They’ve also cashed in 10 of their last 13 road games, and have played 10 straight on the highway without losing by more than six points.
7♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Stan Lisowski
Oklahoma City
The Thunder have beaten Memphis 3 straight trips here. The underdog is 7-3 ATS the past 10 Oklahoma City games. In fact, 4 of their last 5 games have been decided by 3 points or less. Thunder go 12-5 as an away dog.
Rocketman
Iona @ Manhattan
Play: Iona -3
Iona is 13-6 overall this year while Manhattan comes in with a 7-11 overall record on the season. Iona is allowing only 63.6 points per game overall this year and 64.2 points per game on the road this season. Iona is 4-1 SU last 5 while Manhattan is 1-4 SU their last 5 games overall. Iona is 3-1 SU and ATS overall vs Manhattan the past 3 years. Gaels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Metro Atlantic Athletic. Gaels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Jaspers are 12-29-1 ATS in their last 42 games following a SU loss. We'll recommend a small play on Iona tonight!
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW YORK +5½ over L.A. Lakers
No doubt this one will attract a lot of attention both in terms of interest and wagering. Not that the Knicks are so interesting but a game between New York and L.A. at the Garden is always exciting and when the Lakers are involved in any game they attract a lot of betting interest indeed. Which now brings us to the line that the oddsmakers have set, which opened at –5 and now stands at Lakers –5½. Everyone and their brother is going to lay it and that already started as soon as the number came out. These teams need no introductions, as the Lakers are the Lakers, a perennial powerhouse, while the Knicks expectations coming into the year were low and they haven’t got much higher. The Lakers are also coming off another loss to the Cav’s and one has to figure them to take out its frustrations on this seemingly easy target. That may be true and they may just do exactly that, however, wagering on the NBA is very much 2.12 units to win 2). like wagering on the NFL, in that the books are extremely sharp and they know heavy action was forthcoming on the Lakers at this price. Believe what you want but we’ve seen it over and over and over, whereas a game looks too easy and it turns out the exact opposite. With that in mind, the play is the Knicks for no other reason than the oddsmakers are enticing us to lay the road points. No thanks. You might want to wait til very late to play this, as this line can only go one way and I’ll update this about 7:00 PM to post the line that we played it at. Play: New York +5½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Chicago +6½ over PHOENIX
The Suns are all offense and no defense and that’s not a good recipe for success when you’re playing one of the better defensive teams in the league. Besides, what have the Suns done lately to warrant being this price over the Bulls? The Suns have one win over its last five games and that win in its latest against the Nets. Incidentally, the Nets were hanging around until late in the third quarter. Now the Suns will play its second game back after that long trip and they sure won’t be playing with as much desperation as they showed during the unimpressive win over the Nets. The Bulls were heating up and playing well before they got hit by the flu bug just prior to its game against Golden State this past Monday. The Bulls offense was playing so much better and they even won in Boston as a 6½-point pooch, not to mention a 120-point effort in a win at the Palace. For the Suns to win and cover they have to have a great shooting night because they simply cannot defend anyone and against this strong defensive club it’s not worth the risk. I’m calling the Bulls outright but must accept these points. Play: Chicago +6½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
BOSTON –10½ over Portland
Wow, this sure looks like a lot of points to be a spotting a quality team like the Blazers, does it not? Well, that’s exactly what the oddsmakers want you to think but this line suggests a blowout. Boston has lost three in a row and it was capped by a loss in Detroit against “that” team. Detroit had been getting hammered almost every game and you can be damn sure the Celtics will respond tonight. KG back in the line-up may not help that much on the floor due to possible limited minutes but his presence in uniform will spark both the players and crowd. Furthermore, the Blazers have been playing undermanned for a while now yet they’ve won three of four so they’ll be no panic in their game. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise to see the Celtics put away this shorthanded team very early and cruise to an easy win. Play: Boston –10½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Indiana +1.42 over DETROIT
It’s hard to understand why this Pacer team struggles so badly. Here’s a team that has a lot of talent, a great player in Danny Granger, a solid big man in the middle, some terrific shooters and at the very least they should be a .500 team in the East. Sure, they’ve had to endure some injuries early but a 30-point recent loss to the Heat is inexcusable. The Pacers followed that up with an 11-point loss in Orlando but that score is flattering to Indiana, as they were down 20 after the first quarter and the fourth quarter was garbage time for the Magic. After those two humiliations you can expect a strong effort tonight against one of the most beatable teams in the league. The Pistons are coming off a win over the Celtics and that makes this one a perfect letdown spot for the home side. Even at their best the Pistons are a bad team and at their very best they still might not be able to beat this guest. This one is all about playing on the Pacers after two horrible efforts. Play: Indiana +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
EDMONTON +1.04 over Dallas
Two things are certain here. First, the Oilers will win another game this year and secondly, this is its best chance to do that in a long, long time. The Stars have not won on the road since Dec 11, a span that covers 10 games. They played last night in Vancouver, lost again and will go right back at it tonight. The Stars goaltending situation is about as unstable as the Oilers. Marty Turco is having a brutal year and looks completely off when he plays and Alex Auld will never be anything more than a backup. Auld played last night so it’s likely Turco gets the call tonight. Meanwhile, the Oilers are finished for the year in terms of making the playoffs. That’s a forgone conclusion but they still want to win and they want to win badly. They’re coming off a pretty decent game against the Canucks that went into OT and they have to know they have a great chance to snap that ugly funk tonight. The Oilers last nine games (since they last won) have come against Vancouver, Colorado, San Jose, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Columbus, Phoenix, San Jose and Calgary. That’s a very tough stretch of games indeed and now they’re in a great spot to beat perhaps the ripest team to get beat on the road in the league. Play: Edmonton +1.04 (Risking 2 units).