Nelly
Suns -3.5
The Suns are 15-6 at home this season but Phoenix is still not being respected like a quality team in the Western Conference. The Suns are basically being valued as an equal team to the 20-21 Wizards as just a slight home favorite. Washington has been playing well with wins in four of the last six games and the Wizards have proven capable of beating top teams. Washington enters this game off an overtime loss and this will be the first road game in almost two weeks. Phoenix has won nine of the last 12 home games with at least 101 points scored in all but one of those games and the Suns have covered in nearly 68 percent of their games this season. Washington’s scoring takes a big dip in road games though the Wizards have shaken off the ugly road numbers of the past two seasons. Washington is a losing ATS team against winning teams however and the Suns are 5-1 ATS this season as a favorite of less than five points. Phoenix strongly out-rates Washington in efficiency on offense and the numbers are pretty similar on defense even with the Suns allowing 101 points per game on the season. Washington allows 46 percent shooting and has struggled defending the 3-point shot.
SPORTS WAGERS
Nashville +102 over CALGARY
OT included. Calgary is coming off a 3-2 victory over the Coyotes but that was a rare win for this franchise and a rare outburst of goals. Calgary’s 114 goals scored are the worst in the West and only ahead of the Sabres in the East. Prior to scoring three on Mike Smith, the Flames had scored two goals or less in nine straight games. From December 27 until January 9, a string of seven games, Calgary was shut out in five of those seven games. The Flames bring a strong work ethic almost every night but their lack of offense and talent makes them an instant fade when they are the chalk against a team that plays as sound defensively as the Predators.
The Preds won in Vancouver last night and that victory would mean zilch if they lost here. Nashville has now won two in a row and four of its last five contests. Prior to last night’s 2-1 victory over the Canucks, the Predators scored four goals or more in four straight. Playing the tail-end of back-to-backs is not an issue either, as Nashville is 4-4 in those situations and they’re playing as good right now as they have been all year. With a surplus of quality forwards, the Preds can balance their four lines equally and withstand back-to-backs or three in four as well as any team in the business. Aside from Pekka Rinne being out, the Predators roster is full of healthy skaters with nobody else on the rack. Devan Dubnyk’s .895 save percentage and 3.36 GAA is misleading. He played behind an atrocious defense in Edmonton that was constantly leaving him hung out to dry for years. No goaltender could thrive under those circumstances for an extended period of time but all those difficult saves and bombardment of shots is very likely going to serve this talented goaltender well. Preds coach Barry Trotz openly stated that Dubnyk picked up a lot of “bad habits” in Edmonton but goaltending guru coach Mitch Korn has been working extensively with Dubnyk over the past few days and he should be raring to go for this one. The Predators front office seldom makes a bad move and picking up an undervalued Dubnyk could pay big dividends. The formula now becomes: goalie who is much better than his numbers + traditionally strong defensive team + serious motivation from everyone to win = profit. The Predators are 4-0 in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record and that number figures to climb here.
SPORTS WAGERS
ORLANDO -1½ over L.A. Lakers
Give the Lakers credit for a game effort last night in a nationally televised showdown in Miami. The Lakers played their hearts out, battled back and just fell short. That was L.A.’s fifth straight on the road. This will be its sixth straight and they will conclude its seven-game road trip Sunday afternoon in New York in another nationally televised game. This game is sandwiched between Miami and New York. Additionally, the Lakers stock is high with five road covers in a row while the Magic are a team that nobody wants a part of right now. That’s usually the best time to step in.
Orlando is on the verge of snapping out of its horrendous funk. Playing its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs, the Magic had a one point lead and the ball with 30 seconds remaining in the game on Wednesday against Atlanta. They ended up losing that game but they rallied from 19 down to take the lead and it’s something they can build off of. With just one victory over its last 13 games, Orlando is among the most undervalued teams in the Association. This now becomes an outstanding buy low opportunity in an extremely favorable spot. Orlando’s starting five is too good to be losing games at this pace. With Victor Oladipo continually stuffing the stat sheet (in the triple-OT loss against the Bulls, Oladipo finished with 35 points, eight assists, four rebounds, three steals and one block in 57 minutes) and a healthy cast around him (Arron Afflalo, Jameer Nelson, Glen Davis, Tobias Harris), the Magic figure to leave nothing on the table in this extremely winnable contest.
Washington +143 over PHOENIX
The Suns' last five losses have come by five points or fewer but they've managed a respectable 5-6 record since losing Eric Bledsoe to knee surgery. On Sunday, Phoenix beat Denver for the third time this season and moved within two victories of matching last season's win total. They followed that victory with a resounding 124-100 win over Indiana on Wednesday to move within one victory of last year’s win total. What the Suns have accomplished this season is nothing short of remarkable but this is a letdown spot right before embarking on a four-game trip that begins Sunday in Cleveland. The Suns are a big public play tonight after whacking the Pacers and that’s not the best time to be backing a public favorite.
Washington is an erratic squad but they have proven numerous times that when focused they can defeat anyone. Just last week the Wizards defeated the Heat once and the Bulls twice before losing to Detroit and Boston. That said, everything here points to a Phoenix win. The Suns continue to be much more potent offensively at home, where they've won four of five and are 15-6 on the season. They average 109.2 points while shooting 39.5 percent from 3-point range at US Airways Center and are coming off a game in which they shot 54 % and went 11 of 16 from 3-point range against the league’s best defense. Why then, are the Suns just a 3½-point choice against a middle of the pack East team? In many cases the line dictates the play. In this case, the small line strongly suggests that the Suns are in a difficult spot and one the Wizards can take advantage of.
Pass CBB
Teddy Covers
San Antonio vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta
The Spurs have a host of under-the-radar injuries that leave them vulnerable in the road favorite’s role tonight. Danny Green won’t affect a pointspread by even a half point, but when he’s not available, the Spurs three point shooting takes a big hit.
Tiago Splitter doesn’t affect a pointspread either, but when he’s not healthy, the Spurs really miss their best low post player off the bench. And Kawhi Leonard’s absence doesn’t affect the pointspread in any meaningful way, but when he’s out, the Spurs really miss his defense and passing abilities.
All three guys are out for San Antonio tonight. And point guard Tony Parker isn’t healthy either, dealing with the lingering effects of a badly bruised shin. That’s bad news against the Hawks, a team the Spurs have struggled to beat in recent meetings. In fact each of the last two meetings between these two teams – including one last month – have been decided by a single basket.
Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer was Greg Popovich’s lead assistant last year, a guy who really knows the strengths and weaknesses for San Antonio. And Budenholzer’s team is in excellent current form winning four of their last six including outright upsets over the Pacers, Heat and Rockets. They’re live for the outright upset here as well!
Nelly
Toronto Raptors - over Philadelphia 76ers
Laying points on the road can be risky but the 76ers enter this home test coming off a big win at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday. Philadelphia has only won 14 games all season and just two games in the last nine games. Philadelphia is 8-12 at home on the season but four of those wins have come in overtime as the record easily could be even worse for the 76ers. These teams have played twice this season with Toronto winning by 10 and 8 respectively. Only five times all season has Philadelphia held an opponent to fewer than 100 points as the 76ers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, allowing 110 points per game on average. Toronto has actually moved into the top six in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Philadelphia is just 7-13 ATS at home this season and the 76ers are 7-19 ATS when dogged by less than nine points. Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS at home against winning teams and Toronto has taken care of business against lesser teams going 12-7 ATS against below .500 squads while also going 14-7 ATS on the road this season.
Erin Rynning
Dallas at Brooklyn
Play: Brooklyn -2
Brooklyn continues to hit its stride winning and covering the pointspread in 8 of its last 9 games. Defense has been the catalyst for the Nets as over the nine games they’ve held the opposition to 42.6% shooting, and 92 points per game. In comparison the Nets started the campaign 10-21, while allowing 46% shooting and 102.4 points per game. In addition, they just got back All-Star point guard Deron Williams who missed the prior five games. Williams has looked strong coming off the bench, while giving the Nets a dose of energy. Realistically, the Nets really only need to break into the top six of the Eastern Conference for playoff positioning in order to avoid Miami and Indiana in the first round. Meanwhile, the Mavericks continue to boast a solid 25-19 record, as they’ve largely tred to outscore the opposition on a nightly basis. As a result they are a bottom 10 defensive team with the majority of their roster is littered with average defensive players. In their last five games, the Mavericks allowed a whopping 127 and 129 points which shouts to their shortcomings. As we approach the All-Star break finding the fresher team can provide the extra value when it comes to winning and losing. The Mavericks have played a packed schedule in 2014 with 13 games already, while the Nets have played just nine. Look for the fresher Nets to win with defense tonight.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Vermont/Stony Brook Under 129.5: Both of these teams come into this game playing lockdown defense and that should lead to a low scoring game. Vermont Comes in allowing 64.3 ppg on the year, but in their last 7 games they have allowed just 47.2 ppg, while not allowing more than 59 points in any of those games. Stony Brook has allowed 67.7 ppg on the year, but on just 40.2% shooting and they have allowed just 58.4 ppg on 38.7% shooting in their last 5 games. These teams are used to low scoring games as 7 of the last 8 meetings have produced no more than 124 points. I see this one coming in right around 120 at best.
Harry Bondi
CHARLOTTE (+4) over NY Knicks
Knicks have dropped 5 in a row and are sniping at each other again. New Yorkers have been lousy all season but particularly at home where they are 7-15 both straight up and ATS. Bobcats have won two in a row over Toronto and the Los Angeles Clippers and have finally gotten big man Al Jefferson into the mix. He is averaging 21 points and 11 rebounds in 12 January games and should have his way down low against a weak Knicks front line. Dissension has once again crept into the New York locker room this time in the person of J.R. Smith who told reporters after the Knicks last game "We're playing better on the road than we are at home, ain't nobody looking forward to playing at home". Even usually stoic New York center Tyson Chandler spoke up after the last game openly questioning why the Knicks don't play better defense. "We got a lot of things wrong defensively," Chandler told the New York Post. "I think we should've maybe been more aggressive. It seems like we don't want to play." What! Chrlotte always plays the Knicks tough going 5-1 ATS their last six meetings so let's take the Bobcats for the outright win!
OC Dooley
Wizards +3.5
The intangible surrounds host Phoenix who is in a classic emotional “letdown” position on the heels of a rare national ESPN appearance back on Wednesday when in front of the home fans they drilled an opponent with the league’s best record (Indiana) in a 124-100 blowout. In that stunning result the Suns were led by the same Gerald Green (23 points) who used to wear a Pacers uniform. Following a horrible campaign that resulted in 57 different losses Phoenix entered this campaign with very low expectations as most prognosticators picked them to finish at the bottom of the Western Conference. Despite a roster that does NOT include one All-Star performer the Suns have been one of several surprise teams out west and currently hold the #7 overall position in what is a stacked conference. The ODDSMAKERS have made a loud statement casting Phoenix as a relatively small home favorite tonight even though visiting Washington has a below .500 overall record and just lost at home versus an lowly opponent (Boston). In addition the Wizards have recently been a costly investment (2-6 current “spread” slide including four in a row). But in a Wednesday home loss Wizards young star John Wall (28 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists) for the third time in his career pulled off a TRIPLE-DOUBLE in what was a spectacular performance. For those into percentages here is an UNDEFEATED season-long angle which has seen Washington go an unscathed “9-0” ATS/ROAD if their prior outing was in front of their own fans.
The Duke's Sports
Lakers +2.5
I realize the Lakers are injury riddled and unrested going into this one; however, their bench, led by Nick Young, is producing. And Gasol and Jodie Meeks are holding up well at the shooting end to keep them in games; as a result, they've covered six straight, including two outright road wins and took Chicago into OT at Chicago. Moreover, they hung with Miami yesterday. We'll look for this patchwork Lakers team to give Orlando trouble. The Magic are equally poor defensively in the bottom tier of the league, and even worse offensively in scoring while weak on the boards. Without Vucevic (concussion), the Magic have gone 1-8 and we'll look for that void in the middle to remain a problem for Orlando tonight. Magic just 12-25 ATS at home vs under .500 road teams and they're 6-13 ATS at home. Lakers are 5-2 ATS on 0 days rest, 4-0 ATS off a SU loss and covered five straight on road. Lakers the call.
Andy Iskoe
Stony Brook/Vermont Under 129.5
Analysis: These teams are tied atop the American East Conference with perfect 5-0 records. Vermont's 5 conference games have produced an average of just 112.4 total points with 4 of the games producing between 97 and 120 total points and the fifth falling on 129, a total that would win or push tonight's total. The results are almost as impressive for Stony Brook wose 5 conference games have produced an average of 126.0 total points with 3 of the 5 ranging from 114 to 123. Both teams are comfortable in playing at a more deliberate pace in conference play than during non-conference play and with this game being for the conference lead it is reasonable to expect that tactic to be preferred by both coaches.
NHL Predictions
Colorado Avalanche -114
The Colorado Avalanche are 31-13-5 in a tough Western Conference and a solid 14-6-2 on the road. The Panthers are sitting 20-23-7 in the East and 10-10-4 at home. Colorado is coming off a 5-2 loss vs Toronto, but had won 4 straight games prior to that loss. The Panthers have won two straight vs Pittsburgh and Buffalo, although they were out played in both games including being out shot 35-22 against a weak Buffalo team. Semyon Varlamov is confirmed for the start tonight and he is 24-9-5 on the season with a 2.39 GAA and .925 SV%. The Avs are 25-10 in their last 35 vs Eastern Conference opponents, 4-1 in their last 5 on 2 days rest, and 4-0 in their last 4 games following a home loss of 3+ goals. Colorado is also 5-2 in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record. The Panthers are just 16-41 in their last 57 vs a team with a winning % above .600, 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win, and 6-20 in their last 26 home games vs a team with a road winning % of .600 or higher. Florida will be out matched here tonight and the Avs have responded well after being embarrassed on home ice, so I expect a big effort and win by the Avs on the road.