John MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Thunder / Kings Over 209FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The last two meetings in this series between the Sacramento Kings and Oklahoma City Thunder have been very high scoring. I look for this game to play out the same way as they combine for 210-plus points with ease. Oklahoma City beat Sacramento 118-110 for 228 combined points on April 24th before also topping the Kings 113-103 for 216 combined points on December 14th in their lone meeting this season. The OVER is 13-3-1 in Kings last 17 home games. Sacramento is 8-1 to the OVER versus good 3 point shooting teams that make at least 36% of their attempts this season. The Kings are 9-1 to the OVER in home games versus good offensive teams that score at least 99 points/game over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings in Sacramento.
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Carolina +131 over BUFFALOFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Sabres are 2-1 on the year but could easily be 0-3, as they were trailing in their opener after two periods against Philadelphia and Ryan Miller bailed them out in Toronto. Last night in Carolina the roof caved in and the Sabres dropped a 6-3 decision. The venue switches tonight but the same result is likely.
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The 'Canes seemingly slow start has them undervalued so jump on now because it's not going to last long. Carolina is loaded. They're 1-2 on the year but pay no attention to that, as they ran into a couple of hot goaltenders. No team in the NHL has created more scoring chances than the Hurricanes and they finally resulted in goals last night. The flood gates may have been opened. Alexander Semin looks completely rejuvenated in his new digs. Jordan Staal is a huge talent that can only make this team better. A team that ranked 25th in the league in goals allowed last year figures to be much better with solid performers like former U.S. Olympian Tim Gleason, veteran Joni Pitkanen and perhaps the best of them all, Justin Faulk. Faulk is quickly turning into a cornerstone defender. He was a member of the NHL's all-rookie team last season and played well during the lockout for the 'Canes' AHL affiliate in Charlotte, where he was among the league-leaders among defensemen in point production. Top to bottom and including goal, this solid team has our attention, as does this price.
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NEW JERSEY -½ +113 over WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. As mentioned, fading the Capitals is paying off like a broken slot machine and last night's 4-1 loss to the Canadiens suggests it will continue. Washington is now 0-3 and each loss was worse than the last. The Caps have now allowed 15 goals while scoring just six. Therir lone and meaningless goal by Joey Crabb came with two minutes left in the game. With just one player overseas during the lockout and perhaps less pure producers (we count two) than any team in the NHL, it's no surprise that this team is so lame.
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By contrast, the Devils are playing with fire in their bellies. They're sticking to their strong defensive style, they're scoring timely goals and they continue to win. It's just two games in but New Jersey is 2-0 with wins over the Islanders and Flyers. They've scored five times while allowing just one goal. Ilya Kovalchuk is playing as well or better than any player in the league and that's been ongoing since last January. Frankly, it's hard to envision the experienced and solid Devils not going in for the kill against this wounded, hated and very beatable rival.
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Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland CavaliersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The (22-18) Milwaukee Bucks of the Eastern Conference Central division will take on the (11-32) Cleveland Cavaliers also of the Eastern Conference Atlantic division in 2013 NBA action. The teams have met twice this season and have split, with both games going under the total. Milwaukee is on a 3 game winning streak both straight up and Against The Spread. Cleveland is 2-1 ATS their last 3 at home. Cleveland gets the home cover.
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Minnesota + over WashingtonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Wizards have played better ball of late with five wins in the last eight games, including beating winning teams with wins over Oklahoma City, Atlanta, Denver, and Portland. This is the first game back home after a long five-game west coast trip however and this will be the biggest favorite spread for the Wizards all season long. Injuries have destroyed a once promising season for Minnesota and this is a Wolves team that has lost seven of the last eight games. The schedule has been exceptionally tough in that span however. Minnesota has just a 6-15 road record on the year but Washington only has six home wins all season long. Minnesota is 6-3 ATS this season as an underdog between 6-10 points and Washington is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, now facing a pretty solid defensive team that rebounds well. Washington is connecting on less than 42 percent of its shots this season and the sterling ATS numbers for Washington in recent weeks have caught up with the team with a greatly inflated number at home Friday night. The first game back home after long travel can generally be a bad spot for teams and Minnesota should bounce back after consecutive narrow losses against quality teams.
Wunderdog
San Antonio at Dallas
Pick: San Antonio
Things have picked up for the Dallas Mavericks now that Dirk Nowitzki has his sea-legs back under him. The Mavericks have won five of their last six. The problem is that they are facing a better San Antonio team that is even hotter than they are, having put their last six in the win column and stand at 34-11 on the season. The Spurs may be doing it differently from the past, as they can still man-up on "D," but the offense is much better, and despite the absence of Tim Duncan there are a lot of answers on the floor. The Spurs own a 40-19-4 ATS mark following a win, and the Mavs have had few answers against them, as San Antonio is 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Dallas. Take San Antonio.
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Brooklyn at Memphis
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The The simulator shows a high probability that there will be fewer than 175 points scored in this matchup. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-18 mark for 72% winners since 1996. Play UNDER with all teams where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games and in a game involving two good teams sporting win percentages between 60% to 75%. Brooklyn is a solid 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in road games facing good teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points per game over the last 2 seasons; 26-13 UNDER (+11.7 Units) facing good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons; 15-6 UNDER (+8.4 Units) facing solid ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers per game this season. Memphis is a solid 22-7 UNDER (+14.3 Units) after playing a game as favorite this season and are 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite this season. Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA square off in this matchup. Both teams? winning success has started with strong suffocating defense that feeds into the offense. Memphis ranks second allowing 89.5 PPG and Brooklyn fifth allowing 94.1 PPG. No doubt in my mind this game will take a slow grinding style adn that every shot will be contested. Take the UNDER.
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Atlanta Hawks -5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Atlanta Hawks were embarrassed back on 1/14 against Chicago when they only scored 58 points in a 39 point loss. Since then this team has rebounded to play pretty well, they won at home over Brooklyn then played the Nets tough the next time out on the road. They lost a close game to the Spurs, but beat Minnesota handily and followed that out by blowing out the Bobcats in Charlotte. Not only is Boston struggling but they are in a bad rest position here tonight. The Celtics are coming off a loss to the Knicks at home last night and have to fly down to Atlanta to face the Hawks. Boston is playing their third game in four nights and 7th in 11 days. Since they have lost five straight both ATS and straight up, this team needs some time to practice. Unfortunately they also have a home date with Miami on Sunday, so they aren't going to get it anytime soon. I think the Celtics lose a sixth straight here in Atlanta.
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Green Bay vs. Wis.-Milwaukee
Pick:UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Packers vs. Brewers? Nope, wrong sports. In hoops, however, this has not been an easy campaign for Milwaukee HC Rob Jeter, whose Panthers are languishing in an unaccustomed spot near the foot of the Horizon League table, and having covered the spread in only 6 of 18 previous games this season. Milwaukee's problem is simple...it can't shoot the ball, reflected in very subpar 37.6% field goal and 29.6% 3-point shooting. Prefer Green Bay's scoring options, especially with 7'1 C Alec Brown finally stirring (32 points last two games) and the Fighting Phoenix bench going 9 or 10-deep. But noting the nature of this intense in-state rivalry, and a not-so-insignificant impost that must be cleared by visiting Green Bay, we suspect that an expected slower pace, due in part to Milwaukee's offensive limitations, makes the "under" a more appealing recommendation tonight.
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Boston +5 over ATLANTAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Celtics have dropped five in a row. They lost at Cleveland and they lost at home to New Orleans during this mini-funk. They also lost all five against the number and as we often suggest, the best time to jump on a team is when everyone else is jumping off. That applies here. Boston is very capable of beating a lot of teams and the Hawks are among that group. They came in here on January 5th and won by eight in the midst of a six-game winning streak. They match up well against this team, as their five wins and covers in the last six meetings here will attest to.
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The Hawks were in a funk of their own before two successive wins. However, they came against the Bobcats and a very beaten up T-Wolves team. They didn't look sharp in either and have many internal issues as well. With just four wins in its last 14 games, Atlanta is not the right team to be backing when spotting some points against Boston, a team that gives them nothing but misery.
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Loyola Maryland -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is an interesting match up of the two teams picked to finished 1st and 2nd in the MAAC. I like MD who was picked to finish first to win this game for a few different reasons despite Manhattan playing better of late. First things first, Manhattan Jaspers rely too much on the three point game shooting over 40% of their shots from there. Loyola MD is really good in 3 point defense allowing 28.8% on the season. Manhattan has also had a problem getting defensive rebounds which has cost them games because they are leading to a lot of fouls. Loyola MD will give them issues here as they are ranked 14th in the nation with a 38.8% rebound rate. They are also getting to the FT line more than their opponents while Manhattan is -10 FTA per game and has allowed their opponents to get to the FT line 35.7 times per game in their last 5 games combined.
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Washington Wizards -6FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington has been playing like a completely different team since they welcomed back John Wall into the rotation. The Wizards are 5-3 over their last eight games and have covered the spread in 8 straight. They are 3-0 over their last 3 home games, which included a 101-99 win over Oklahoma City. While I won't be laying points with the Wizards often, the Timberwolves are definitely an opponent worthy of fading right now. Minnesota has lost two straight and 7 of 8 overall. They are dealing with all kinds of injuries and it almost seems like they are starting to give up on the season. Washington beat a bad Orlando team by 29-points at home on Jan. 14. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Wizards delivered a similar performance tonight against the T-wolves.
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Miami Heat -9½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami didn't play all that great against the Raptors on Wednesday, as they needed overtime to come away with a 123-116 victory. That really wasn't all that surprising considering the Heat were playing on 5-days rest and going up against a below-average team. Rest is typically good, but too much rest is often a bad thing. Now that the Heat are back in the swing of things, I look for them to come out and put a beating on the Pistons tonight. Detroit upset Miami 109-99 earlier this season. The Heat players will be more than happy to remind the Pistons of what they are capable of. In the two previous meetings between these two teams, Miami won by 15 and 23 points respectively. Lay the Points!
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Memphis Grizzlies -4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I believe the Nets will be a little road-weary tonight as this will be their third road game in 5 days. Consider that they are on 4-14 ATS slide in road games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. They have lost by an average of 9.2 points in this situation. The Nets are 10-9 on the road, but the Grizzlies are an impressive 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Memphis also seems to feed off dominant performances. It checks in off a 13-point win over the Lakers and is 11-3 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. It has won 6.2 points on average in this situation. Bet Memphis.
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Miami Heat -9½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Heat were a little sluggish last time out, especially on defense, and barely sneaked past Toronto. However, that game came after five days off so a little bit of rust was to be expected. Miami has had only one day off since its last game so it should be very much engaged here. Motivated by that subpar effort versus the Raptors and also fueled by a 10-point loss in Detroit last month, expect the Heat to run away with this one. Prior to last month's loss, Miami had won two straight versus the Pistons by 15 and 23 points. In other words, the Heat are very capable of blowing out Detroit, especially in what I believe will be a motivated spot. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Pistons are 8-19-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings and 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings at Miami. Lay the points.
Ray Monohan
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards
The Timberwolves who are just being smacked with injuries right now are trying to snap a five-game road losing streak. They've lost two straight and seven of eight. They're without Kevin Love, Nikola Pekovic, Chase Budinger and Alexey Shved. Washington returns home after going 2-3 on a West Coast. They've won 5/8 and are HOT. The T-Wolves are 0-10 when score less than 90 points. Expect a 10 point win for the Wiz tonight. 96-86. Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The favorite is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.