Joe Gavazzi
Dallas +2
What chance the lowly Maverick? They have already been dumped by their in-state rival twice this year by margins of 25 and 38 points. That moves the Spurs, who have a league best 34 wins, to 8-1 ATS in this series. San Antonio enters on six game win streak, the Spurs are 11-6 as road favorite. But this bureau has ridden Dallas to 7 straight spread wins as they enter the evening play on a 5-1 SU run. In that run, they are tickling the twine for 111 PPG. As I've written during this winning streak, HC Carlisle is a momentum coach, standing 44-22 ATS following three or more consecutive spread wins. SA HC Popovich will be sans Duncan tonight and will have limited use of Ginobili as he recovers from a hamstring injury, and Leonard, who is troubled by a bad knee. With Dirk fully integrated into Mav's lineup, this is the home team's best chance to get their double-revenge and run their recent streak to 8-0 ATS.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Siena/ Niagara Under 135.5: Been looking at this game hard and one game that Siena played really sticks out to me. Back in the beginning of January Siena played a home game vs one of the fastest paced teams in the nation (Iona) and they slowed the game down so much that just 128 points were scored. Now Iona games have averaged 157 ppg and the OU line was at 148.5 in that game. Now they face another uptempo team in Niagara and I expect them to be able to slow this one down as well. Niagara road games do average 145 ppg, but Siena home games have put up just 120.9 ppg, with nt one of their home games putting up more than 132 points. Offensively Siena is a slow paced team and they average just 58.1 ppg at home, and they play good defense at home as well, allowing just 62.8 ppg on 39.6% shooting. Siena slowed down the Gaels and they will be able to do the same here vs the Purple Aces. I look for this one in the 120's.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Memphis/ Brooklyn Over 177.5: 8 times this year there has been an OU line of less than 180 and 7 times it went Under, but I will go with the Over in this one. I do think we can squeeze 180 points out of this one. Memphis allows just 87 ppg at home, but they have allowed 93+ points in 3 of their last 5 games here and the Nets have averaged 96.2 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 93.7 ppg on the road. The Nets have played better defense of late, but they still allow 93.9 ppg on the road this year and the Grizzlies have averaged 92.4 ppg at home. Should be a physical game and that could mean fouls and both teams shoot 75+% from the charity stripe. I expect at least 180 points in this one.
San Antonio/ Dallas Over 205.5: The Mavs have been on fire offensively recently, while the Spurs are not the same team defensively without Duncan and it showed as they allowed a weak New Orleans offense to put up 102 points on them in their last game. Dallas has averaged 110.2 ppg in their last 5 games and they have averaged 103.1p pg at home on the year. This is an offense that is clicking now and will be looking to score a ton here after getting blown out in their two games vs the Spurs this year. Offensively, without Duncan in there, the Spurs will look to run and shot the three a bit more in this one. The Spurs do average 102.8 ppg, while allowing 99.2 ppg on the road this year. Should be a fun run and gun game with much more offense than defense.
Boston +5 Over ATLANTA: The Celts have lost 5 in a row, so this is a team that is in desperation mode and what better way to get back on track than vs a team you've won 5 of the last 6 against. Let's also note that the one win Atlanta had in that stretch was by just 1 points. The Hawks have won 2 in a row, but that was vs Charlotte and Minnesota, so their win streak isn't really all that impressive. The Celts have been playing very good defense of late, allowing just 90.1 ppg (regulation) in their last 10 games. I believe that it will be their defense that will give them the chance to win this one outright, or at least keep it to a 1 or 2 point loss. Look for a close one from start to finish.
NHL Predictions
New Jersey Devils -146
The Capitals enter this game 0-3 to start the season, which included a 4-1 loss last night at home against the Montreal Canadiens. Other losses have been a 6-3 loss in Tampa Bay and a 4-2 loss at home vs Winnipeg. The Devils on the other hand are 2-0 with a 2-1 win in New York against the Islanders and a 3-0 home win over Philadelphia on Tuesday. It has been a great start for Devils goalie Martin Brodeur who is 2-0 with a 0.50 GAA and .977 SV%. Take note that dating back to last season the Devils are 12-4 in their last 16 home games, 18-6 in their last 24 vs Eastern Conference opponents, and 7-3 vs the Southeast division. The Devils are also 23-11-1 in these two teams last 35 meetings, and 13-5 in their last 18 meetings in New Jersey. We haven't seen much of the Devils this year, but they look like the same solid team that was in the Stanley Cup Finals last season. Washington has been bad and should struggle again in New Jersey here on a back to back against a rested Devils team.
Detroit Red Wings -108
Minnesota enters this one with a 2-1 record. They opened the season with home wins against Colorado and Dallas, and then lost on Tuesday night 3-1 at home vs the Predators. Tonight will be the Wild's first game on the road of the season. Detroit lost 6-0 in their season opener in St Louis, rebounded with a 4-3 shootout victory in Columbus where they outshot the Blue Jays 42-33, and then lost a 2-1 game in their home opener vs Dallas on Tuesday. The Red Wings had 40 shots on net vs Dallas and managed just one goal. Take note that Detroit was 31-7-3 on home ice last season, while Minnesota was just 15-19-7 on the road. These two teams split 4 meetings last year, but the Red Wings did manage to heavily outshoot the Wild in all 4 games. These are two different teams this year, but I think this is a good spot for the Red Wings with Minnesota playing in their first road game. The Wild are just 5-21 in their last 26 road games and 2-11 in their last 13 vs Central division opponents. Minnesota is also just 5-15-1 in their last 21 meetings in Detroit. This will be a great game, but I have the Wings coming out on top at at just -108 we get a good price.
Ian Cameron
Utah at LA Lakers
Play: Utah
I’m a bit disappointed that I haven’t been more aggressive in fading the Lakers during their rough and turmoil filled season but I plan on correcting that tonight with a recommendation on the Utah Jazz as road underdogs.
After watching the Lakers lose once again in Memphis, and hearing the post game comments from Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard – all three sounded negative and uninspired – there is little to no reason to support this squad, especially in the role of a medium-sized favorite. They aren’t playing any sort of defense and team chemistry is completely non-existent right now. Howard left the game against the Grizzlies with a shoulder injury but is expected to play tonight. Either way, it looks like Howard has checked out mentally as his effort level and competitiveness have been lacking for the majority of the season.
LA is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games and that makes them quite a poor candidate to be laying -5 against anyone right now much less the red hot Utah Jazz who are playing some very good basketball. Utah is the polar opposite of the Lakers: 8-2 SU in its last 10 games (7-3 ATS) including a nice home win against the Miami Heat. The Jazz won four of five games against the Lakers in 2012, including a pair of games in Los Angeles. They have the interior size underneath to easily handle a banged up Howard in the paint with the likes of Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. Jefferson in particular has been awesome of late with five consecutive double-doubles and six in his last seven games.
Utah is already 2-0 against LA this season and I see no reason why they can’t make it 3-0 tonight which makes the generous cushion of points we are getting with the underdog an attractive proposition!
Andre Gomes
Milwaukee / Cleveland Over 201
Cleveland's trade with Memphis was actually good for the Cavaliers, as they got Marreese Speights and Wayne Ellington, who will already play tonight. This means that Luke Walton won't be the team's only frontcourt player coming off the bench anymore, while Wayne Ellington is a solid role player. Cleveland has in Kyrie Irving a superstar when he is healthy and he showed that in the team's last game against Boston, who happens to have a very good backcourt defense. The same doesn't happen with the Bucks, as Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings are poor defenders. Cleveland's only offensive problem against the Celtics was their shooting, as they shot just 2-12 3pts and 3-15 FG in spot up plays. C.J. Miles, who is one of the few good outside shooters of the Cavaliers, will play tonight, so Cleveland should improve on this area tonight. Cleveland's offense has been based on isolation plays, pick and roll ball handler plays, mostly thanks to Kyrie Irving, and cuts. Milwaukee's defense is actually a top unit on these three plays (#4 on isolations, #6 in pick and roll ball handler and #1 in cuts), however Milwaukee has been facing some poor offensive teams lately that have been struggling for a while: LA Lakers, Phoenix, Portland and Philadelphia.
Milwaukee's offense is certainly improving and Ersan Ilyasova is coming from two excellent games. Mike Dunleavy is coming off the bench and he is contributing with some good shooting, while Monta Ellis is coming from a great game against the Sixers, where he had 7-10 FG, 18 points and 10 assists! Milwaukee has been showing good dynamic on attacking the basket and with a very nice transition game. They will face some nice edges over the Cavaliers's defense, as Cleveland is just #25 on transition defense (1.20 PPP allowed and 16, 17, 15, 21 and 10 fast break points allowed L5 games). The Bucks will also have an edge on pick and roll ball handler plays, as Cleveland's defense is just #23 on this area, as Irving is still far from being a good defender. Milwaukee's frontcourt should also take advantage of Cleveland's poor interior defense, with Ersan Ilyasova and Larry Sanders being in good form to take advantage of that.
The Bucks are already #2 in the league in pace factors with 93.4, while Cleveland is averaging a pace factor of 94.73 in games against teams in the top 10 in terms of pace. In fact, Cleveland is also #8 in pace factor with 91.9, therefore I expect this game to be a fast paced game, where both teams will have a good offensive game tonight. So, I'll be taking the Over in here.
LEGIT PICKS
Friday 1/25/13 Plays...
HIGHEST RATED 6* CAPITALS/DEVILS (OVER 5.5) (4PM PST)
---LEGIT PICK'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--
Harry Bondi
DETROIT (+9.5) over Miami
Detroit was in excellent position for their third straight win on Wednesday but blew a 17-point third quarter second-half lead and lost 85-82 at Chicago. Pistons are at their best when grinding out wins in low-scoring games with tough defense and that is what we expect tonight against a Miami squad that came back to beat Toronto in overtime Wednesday and has gotten up for the marquee games but usually sleepwalks until the 4th quarter against the likes of Detroit. Quietly, Pistons are playing good basketball winning 7 of their last 11 and the keep this one close tonight.