Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, January 27

Marc Lawrence

New York Knicks at Miami Heat
Prediction: New York Knicks

A big battle in the NBA East Division tips off in Miami where the Heat plays host the Knicks at American Airlines Arena Friday night. New York enters in a slumber off a disappointing loss as road chalk at Cleveland with a 4-14 ATS record this year. If there is one venue that's been known to wake the Knicks up, though, its here where New York is 16-5-1 ATS in games in which the Heat enters off a win, including 6-0 SU and ATS when the Knicks arrive off a loss of six or more points. With Miami eyeing up a bigger showdown Sunday with Chicago, look for history to rear its head here once again tonight. Take the points. We recommend a 1-unit play on New York.

Matt Fargo

Manhattan @ Canisius
PICK: Manhattan

Manhattan is staying with the rest of the pack in the MAAC as it is riding a five-game winning streak heading into this weekend. We won with the Jaspers last Friday as they easily took care of Marist and then came back and won at home against Niagara. This seems to be no fluke as the Jaspers took out league contenders Fairfield and Iona in back-to-back games, the latter coming by way of a 17-point comeback with just eight minutes remaining. One of the two conference losses came by just a point.

Canisius meanwhile is having a dreadful season as it is 4-15 overall including 1-8 in the conference. The Golden Griffins haven't come close to defeating a quality opponent as those four wins came against teams ranked 344, 330, 290 and 281 and have a combined record of 18-58. they have just two home wins with one of those coming against Binghamton, which is 0-20, and Marist, which has dropped five straight games by double-digits.

Manhattan is excellent defensively. The Jaspers are first in the MAAC in field-goal and three-point percentage defense, as well as team defense rebounding percentage. They are allowing just 63.3 ppg which is second lowest in the conference. Manhattan is also tops in the MAAC in free-throw percentage which is obviously very important. The Jaspers are 4-1 ATS as favorites in this price range this year including 2-0 ATS on the road and this number is very manageable for a team filled with confidence.

This is a revenge game for Manhattan as well as it has lost three straight in this series including both meetings last season. The Jaspers have not been a very good over the last couple years so when they have the opportunity to pounce on a now weaker opponent, they will do so since they have been on the other end of it. Manhattan is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams with a losing record and it is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a cover loss.

Jim Feist

Harvard vs Yale
Pick: Yale

A rivalry game in the Ivy League has Harvard battles Yale. No. 23 Harvard is having a great season, but their opponent here is very good and will be sky high for their rival. The Crimson are 17-36 ATS in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Yale is unbeaten at home (5-0) and the Bulldogs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. Harvard is 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings, as well as 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Yale. Play Yale!

Rob Vinciletti

Toronto Raptors vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Toronto Raptors +11.5

Toronto fits the nice system illustrated below that plays against Denver and all home favorites of 10 or more with 1 day of rest that scored 120 or more on the road as a favorite of 5 or more. These teams tend to bounce off the big scoring effort failing to cover 11 of the last 12 times since 1995. Denver has failed to cover 2 of 3 times as a home favorite in this range and they are coming off a long road trip which was made even longer by 3 days off prior to their last game. This could be a potential flat spot for them against a Toronto team us coming off back to back road dog wins and has covered 3 of 4 times as a road dog of 9.5 to +12. Look for Toronto to hang around for the cover. On Friday I have 2 top plays. The 94% Metro Atlantic Game of the Month and a NBA Dog with Bite that wins outright. Last night was another stellar night with 3 more Winners including top play blowout winner on Colorado. Look for the Hot streak to continue tonight. Jump on and start the weekend big. For the free Play take the Toronto Raptors.

Sean Murphy

Marist @ Siena
PICK: Siena -9

Marist is mired in another lost season, and things only seem to be getting worse.

The Red Foxes have dropped five games in a row, both SU and ATS, and are coming off an ugly 44-point effort against Manhattan last Friday night. In this particular case, I don't believe the one-week layoff will serve them well.

Siena pulled off an improbable 65-62 win over Iona on Monday night, but I don't expect to see any sort of a letdown here. That's because the Saints were blown out in back-to-back games last week, and remain just 4-5 in MAAC play this season.

The Saints have played exceptionally well in conference play here at home, going a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS since the start of January.

Marist has managed to go 4-0-2 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, but keep in mind, the Red Foxes have lost all six of those games outright, and have been 'dogged by at least 13.5 points in their three trips to Siena over that stretch.

We're looking at a more reasonable number tonight, even though the Red Foxes are sending another awful team to the court. Look for the Saints confidence to show following that come-from-behind win over Iona.

Joseph D'Amico

Loyola-Chicago vs. Wright State
Play: Wright State -8½

Wright State has won and covered 4 straight over Loyola Chicago, including a 64-48 thumping back in December. Now with Guard, Julius Mays back from injury at 100%, the Raiders top-scorer (14.4 PPG) can devour the Ramblers, who are literally defenseless against him. Loyola's offense had their best performance, scoring 69 against Rockhurst. Their back court is embarrassing. If it weren't for Forward's, Averkampt and Gibler, this squad would probably forfeit the season. Loyola is 2-10 SU on the road, 0-10 vs. the Horizon, and average a mere 53.4 PPG away from home. The Ramblers are 1-5 ATS their L6 games played at the Raiders and 3-8 ATS their L11 games vs. the Horizon League. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS their L5 games played at home and 7-3 ATS their L10 overall. Take Wright State.

Larry Ness

Portland -9

The Blazers are happy to be home, after playing a stretch of SEVEN games away from home over their last nine. Portland went 2-5 SU and ATS in those games and fell to 3-7 SU and ATS on the road this season. The Blazers average a modest 90.4 PPG on 40.9 percent shooting in road games but here in the Rose Garden, the Blazers have gone 8-1 SU (7-1-1 ATS) while averaging 103.4 PPG on 45.8 percent shooting. About the only good news here for the Suns is that the team comes in well rested, having not played since Tuesday. However, that was hardly an impressive outing, as the Suns lost 99-96 at home to the 6-13 Raptors (4-8 on the road). It's hard to recognize this Suns team from recent additions, without a program. Steve Nash (14,5-10.4 APG) is still the PG but his 31.9 minutes per game are his fewest since the 1998-99 season (in Dallas) and his 10.4 assists per game are his least since 2008-09. Dudley (9.7) had been starting the in the backcourt with him (actually a forward) but now it's Price (4.7), which is hardly an improvement. Hill (9.2) is LONG past his prime at SF and now Kansas rookie Markieff Morris (7.5-5.1) has replaced Frye (7.1-5.9) in the starting lineup at PF (that is an improvement). It can be argued that former Orlando backup center Gortat (15.4-9.9), is now the team's best player, which pretty much sums up the state of the Suns. Warrick (8.6) was leading the team in scoring in the early going (coming off the bench) but his numbers keep dropping. Former Laker Shannon Brown (9.5) sometimes finds a good matchup and 'lights things up," but those efforts are not a nightly occurrence. Getting back to the Blazers, head coach Nate McMillan has an excellent seven-man rotation. Aldridge (22.5-8.9) and Wallace (13.3-7.3) surround Camby (3.2-9.4) up front with Matthews (13.4) taking over for Roy at SG and Felton (10.7-6.8) settling in nicely at PG. Crawford (13.3) was signed away from Atlanta to provide a scoring 'punch' off the bench while Batum (11.1-4.2) just may be the team's best athlete and is surely its best overall defender. Portland is seeking its SIXTH straight home victory over Phoenix tonight and should be well-focused. Phoenix caught Portland coming off a highly-satisfying win against the Lakers the previous night and handed Portland its worst defeat of the season back on Jan 6, winning 102-77. However, the Suns have hardly 'shown' since then, going 3-7 SU and ATS since besting the Blazers. What has also caught my attention is that the Suns have pretty much 'stopped playing defense." Except for a 79-71 win at Boston in the 10-game stretch since last taking on the Blazers, the Suns have allowed 100.3 PPG in their other nine games. I mentioned earlier that the Blazers are averaging 103.4 PPG at home this year and also that the Blazers have won FIVE straight home meetings vs the Suns. Let me add here that in those five wins, the Blazers are averaging a whopping 114.0 PPG! The Blazers should win this going away.

Sam Martin

Charlotte Bobcats at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers

As if Charlotte wasn't having a tough enough time, now they have to face the 76ers in an extremely bad mood after losing outright at home against New Jersey as a big 11-point favorite their last time out. The Bobcats come in losers of six straight and 12 of their last 13 overall, and even worse is the fact that each of the last three games saw Charlotte fall by double-digits. Philly has had a day off to regroup and refocus, and asking the 76ers to win big here against a Bobcats team that hasn't reached the 90-point plateau in five straight isn't too much to ask for. Philly wins big!

Bryan Power

Orlando @ New Orleans
PICK: Orlando -3.5

What the heck happened to the Magic last night? Up big at the half in a huge revenge game against Boston (they scored a franchise low 56 pts in a loss to the Celtics on Monday), they completely wilted down the stretch, scoring just 25 total points in the second half, costing me the Over (game still 'pushed') for most & them the game. They went from up 21 at halftime, looking like an easy cover for their backers, to an eight-point outright loss. Unbelievable. Anyways, look for the Magic to take their frustration out on lowly New Orleans this evening. The Hornets have just one win in their last 16 games and are getting far too much respect from the linesmakers here. This is the lowest scoring team in the Western Conference (just 86.8 PPG at home) and they are in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. The Hornets have lost nine in a row by an average of more than six points per game, so the small number will not be enough to help Friday night.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Canisius +10

Off 3 straight double-digit losses, Canisius will be ready to leave it all on the floor in front of the home fans tonight. Manhattan is tied atop the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, and the Golden Griffins know they better show up if they hope to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

Canisius has had little trouble showing up against the Jaspers. It has won 3 straight in the series and has either won or lost by 10 points or less in 10 of the last 12. It is worth noting that the underdog is an impressive 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

The Golden Griffins have been too good of an investment on Friday nights to ignore. We're talking 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 Friday games. Recent history also suggests they'll be motivated by Sunday's 24-point loss. Consider that the Golden Griffs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 20 points. We'll take the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW ORLEANS +4/+150 over Orlando

The Hornets would have hard time finding a more suitable spot than this one to snap their ugly nine-game losing streak. A revenge-oriented Magic squad played last night at home and blew a 27-point second half lead to the Celtics before losing by eight. They also lost at Boston on Monday by 31 points. In between that pair, Orlando beat the Pacers by 19 in Indiana's first game back from a West Coast trip. The Magic are now 12-6 on the year, including a 6-3 mark on the road and that misleading record is likely going to pay off for us here. Orlando has not had a difficult schedule, 18 games into the season. Out of 30 teams, the Magic's schedule difficulty currently ranks 27th. By contrast the Hornets have had the 4th toughest schedule in the league. Additionally, Orlando will play its eighth game in 11 nights, fourth game in five nights and tail end of back-to-backs. The Hornets have not only had one of the more difficult schedules but they've competed in almost all of them. They've covered four straight against Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Ok City. We're not going to sugar coat this and suggest that the Hornets are a strong club. They have a long way to go. What we are suggesting is that New Orleans will play hard tonight against a demoralized and exhausted visitor. That combination produces the upset. Play: New Orleans +150 (Risking 1 unit). Play New Orleans +4 (Risking 1.09 units to win 1).

New Jersey +5/+175 over CLEVELAND

The Cavaliers have been a fairly live pooch in many of their games this season but being a home favorite against an improving Nets team is not warranted. We need only to look at the Cavs’ last game as evidence. They were a +3½-point dog at home against the Knicks and now they're 8½-points higher against a team whose talent level and record is certainly on par with the Knicks. In other words, if Cleveland were a 3½-point dog to the Knicks, how can they now be a -3½-point favorite the very next game against the Nets? Sure, the Cavs won by 10 but it wasn't because they played well. The Knicks played a sloppy and uninspired game while turning the ball over an alarming 25 times, yet the game was close throughout. Had Cleveland played that way against any other team they would've been buried. The Nets are coming on. They're off a solid 7-point OT win in Philly. New Jersey's last three losses have come against the Bulls, Thunder and Clippers. They're beating the teams they're supposed to and losses to the elite teams are making them stronger. Deron Williams is currently playing as well as any PG in the game. Lastly, the Cavs won that game against the Knicks despite some sloppy and poor play, providing a false sense of security. Sometimes its better to lose to address those issues. With back-to-back games on deck against the Celtics, the Cavaliers bad habits catch up to them here. Play: New Jersey +175 (Risking 1 unit). Play New Jersey +5 (Risking 1.07 units to win 1).

DETROIT +6/+210 over Atlanta

The question of why we keep playing teams like the Nets, Raptors, Hornets and other lesser teams arises often. The answer is that we're almost always getting an inflated number on less popular teams and that adds to their appeal and value. The Pistons fall into the same category. Detroit is close to being relevant. They're a mere 4-15 overall but they have a recent home win over Portland and a tightly contested 3-point loss to the Heat. Prior to the season, speculation was that if Greg Munroe or Rodney Stuckey break out, the Pistons could surprise. Munroe has definitely broken out and Stuckey is on the horizon. The Hawks are 13-6 but unlike the Pistons, they could be heading south. The bench is a major weakness. They've been able to mask that flaw thus far but this schedule does a short-benched team few favors and it's going to bite the Hawks in the butt. Atlanta has not seen the Pistons yet this season and that works in our favor because what the Hawks do see is a 4-15 record and more important games upcoming. Detroit works hard and plays hard and that will pay off in this one against an unsuspecting visitor. Play: Detroit +210 (Risking 1 unit). Play: Detroit +6 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1).

WUNDERDOG

San Antonio at Minnesota
Pick: Under 196.5

The San Antonio Spurs have become an injured, aging team. They still can get it up and going at home where they are 10-1 on the season, but are just 2-6 on the road. Minnesota is no longer the doormat they have been as this team has built on some good drafts from their poor finishes and is turning the corner. The biggest change has been on the defensive end. Last season through 30 games the T-Wolves had allowed 25 of the 30 teams they faced get 100 or more on them. This season at home, they have allowed 96.4 points per game a sharp contrast from a year ago. The Spurs have maintained a defensive edge as a favorite posting a 5-1 mark to the UNDER in their last six in this role. Minnesota stands in at 24-9 to the UNDER as a home dog of +4.5 or less.
Play this one UNDER the total.

Jack Jones

Minnesota Timberwolves +1

The Minnesota Timberwolves have finally returned to relevance this season. The Timberwolves are a respectable 8-10 this season, with four losses by four points or less to the likes of the Thunder, Heat, Grizzlies and Hawks, which are four of the best teams in the league.

San Antonio has looked pretty unstoppable at home this season, but they are far from it on the road. The Spurs are 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in road games this year, getting outscored by an average of 8.3 points/game. They are giving up a ridiculous 104.4 points/game on 50.8 percent shooting away from home.

One of San Antonio's road losses this season came at Minnesota, where the Timberwolves won 106-96 on January 2nd. The Wolves had previously lost 16 straight to the Spurs, though three of their last four losses came by six points or less, so they were close to turning the corner. The Wolves still want revenge from all those years of getting own by the Spurs, so don't look for them to let up tonight. Their confidence is finally where it needs to be.

The Spurs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games overall, including 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Timberwolves are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, including 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Bet Minnesota Friday.

Black Widow

1* on Portland Trail Blazers -9.5

The Phoenix Suns are simply done for. This team has a nice run in the Western Conference over the past decade, but they simply do not have the pieces in place to contend any longer. Steve Nash doesn't have the right guys around him to make their offense work like it used to. The Suns are just 6-11 this season, and they have bad home losses to the Hornets, Cavs, Nets and Raptors. Those four losses alone show how hard of times this team has fallen on. Phoenix used to average 100-plus points with ease, now they are only scoring 92.7 points/game this season, including 89.7 points/game on the road. Portland has been unstoppable at home this season, going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS while outscoring opponents by 10.6 points/game. Motivated from a loss at Golden State two nights ago, the Blazers will return home very hungry. I look for them to take care of the Suns by double-digits tonight. The Suns are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Phoenix is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Blazers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Portland is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. The Blazers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take Portland and lay the points.