Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Yale +6
Yale, which is an unbeaten 6-0 at home this season, is showing value as a home dog this evening. The Bulldogs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. They're also 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings with Harvard and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings against the Crimson. Also, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two have been decided by 3 points or less, and I expect another close contest tonight. Take the points.
Steve Janus
Charlotte Bobcats +16
It might seem like an easy play to lay the 16-points and roll the 76ers tonight, but my money is on the Bobcats to keep this game closer than expected. I understand that Charlotte is dealing with a bunch of injuries, but anytime you show this much disrespect to a team, favoring the other team by 16 points, it tends to bring out the best in them.
The 76ers know they can win this game with their backups, and I have a hard time seeing this team being all that motivated to play their best basketball. Knowing that they have to play another game on Saturday, only adds to them not laying it all on the line tonight.
Charlotte has been a double-digit underdog 7 times this season, they are 5-2 ATS in those games! Charlotte is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600!
Lenny Del Genio
Milwaukee at Chicago
Prediction: Under
Chicago is yielding just 78.9 PPG at home. Milwaukee scores just 89.7 PPG on the road. The last four times they've met here in Chi-Town, the game has gone Under. They are 5-1 Over L6 meetings overall and that's with some low totals. The final combined scores of those games were: 182, 158, 175, 167, 153 and 189. Bucks are 26-10 Under after going Over their previous game. Bulls are 13-2 Under if they held a halftime lead of 5+ in each of their previous three games.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Wright State/ Loyola Chic Over 109.5: This line is going up so i wanted to get the play out now. Kinda wondering why the OU Line on this on is this low as I haven't found very many, if any, stats to say it should be under 110. In Looking at Horizon league games for these teams we see that Loyola's league games have averaged 114.9 ppg, while Wright State's have averaged 118.5 ppg. average the 2 and we get a +7.2 point difference from tonight's line. Ok Home/ Away next. Loyola's road games have averaged 115.6 ppg, while Wright's home games have put up 123.7 ppg. Average those two numbers and we get a +10.2 point advantage over tonight's OU line. Lastly let's look at the last 5 games for both teams. Loyola's last 5 have averaged 116.4, while Wright State's last 5 have put up 118.2 ppg. Averaging those two together and we get a +7.8 over tonight's line. Now if we average the 7.2, 10.2 and 7.8 together we will get a +8.4 over tonight's game and that is a lot of value. Neither team has scored much this year, but Wright State does average 60+ in conference play and both teams have allowed 60+ overall on the year. In looking at the Numbers i just came up with, we can expect a game of around 117 points, so that's what I'm calling for here.
3 UNIT PLAY
Fairfield/ Iona Under 144: Two entirely different styles of play will take to the floor tonight, as Iona goes at 100 miles an hour, while Fairfield loves to slow the pace and play great defense. Using the formula in the above play I come up with an projected total of 137.8. Little over 6 points value there. Iona does like to run, but they can be slowed down and with the line movement Ioan down to -1.5) indicating a play on Fairfield, I'm expecting the Stags to have the game at their pace. Iona Puts up 79.1 ppg on the road and 81.6 ppg in conference plays, but the Stags have allowed just 59.3 ppg on 38% shooting at home and just 61.9 ppg in conference play. Now here is where we get a little bonus. Iona has not been known for playing defense this year (73.6 ppg allowed), but they have allowed just 65.6 ppg in conference play and they will be facing a Stag team that doesn't score a lot, averaging just 66.1 ppg at home and 62 ppg in their last 5 overall. This is an important conference, especially for Fairfield, so I don not expect them to get in to a running game with the Gaels here. Fairfield has played great defense all year, while the Gaels have done a good job in conference play. Too much defense here to think this game will hit 144 points. I expect it to be in low 130's.
2 UNIT PLAY
Harvard/ Yale Under 128: After going over this game for Doughboy I have decided to make a play on this one. 101 ppg. That's what Harvard conference games have averaged this year. That is not a lot of points. Sure Yale can get out and run, but Harvard is clearly the better team and should control pace in this one. My formula show a projected line of 123.8 and I expect it to fall just under that.
1 UNIT PLAY
Manhattan/ Canisius Over 133.5: MANHATTAN is 20-7 OVER (+12.3 Units) in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1997.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
CLEVELAND -4.5 over New Jersey: Boy what a win the nets had the other night over my Sixers, but I don't feel they can play at that same level in this one. Despite the win over the Sixers, he Nets are still 4-8 on the road and have been outscored by 6 ppg in those games. Let's also note that they are off BB road games vs Chicago and Philly so they might be a bit spent for this one. Cleveland has not had a great start to their year thanks to all the road games they have played so far, but they have been alright at home, going 3-3, which included a 10 point win over the Knicks in their last game. Cleveland is a good team at home, while New Jersey has not played well on the road and both trends should continue here. KEY TRENDS--- NEW JERSEY is 8-20 ATS in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons, while CLEVELAND is 17-6 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Utah/ Dallas Over 183.5: Boy can the Mavs play some defense at home as they are allowing just 89.1 ppg on their home floor, but they will be taking on a Utah squad that has been putting up points of late. Granted that Utah has averaged just 90.8 ppg on the road this year, but they come in averaging a healthy 103.3 ppg in their last 8 games. Dallas has not been that great on offense (91.8 ppg overall), but they have scored 96.4 ppg at home and will be facing a Utah squad that has allowed 100 ppg on the road. These teams squared off last week and 185 points were scored in that one, and I exp[ect a few more than that in this one. KEY TREND--- UTAH is 15-5 OVER (+9.5 Units) in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
Chicago/ Milwaukee Over 185: Yes the Bucks have struggled to score this year, at 93.1 ppg and 89.7 ppg on the road and yes they have lost Bogut for a while, but I still see them as having a chance to put points on the board in this one. Chicago has allowed just 78.9 ppg at home, but most of that has been to early season success as they have allowed 94 ppg in their last 4 at home, which has included games vs some bad offensive teams (Indiana, NJ and Charlotte). The Bucks offense has been going good of last as they have put up 96.6 ppg in their last 5 games, so expecting at least 90 points from them is not asking too much. Bogut did put in 11.3 ppg for the Bucks, but his presence will be missed at the other end, where he had 2 blocks per game. Chicago has averaged just 93.3 ppg at home, but they have averaged 1-3.3 ppg in their last 4 home games and 105.4 ppg in their last 5 games overall. The Bucks have allowed 94.9 ppg and 94.5 ppg on the road so there is no reason to believe that Chicago can't get at least 95 points off their own here.Both teams should put enough points on the board for this one to hit at least 190.
New York/ Miami Under 195: Google Play. The Knicks scoring woes have been documented this year and it won't get any better for them with a hobbling Anthony and the fact that Miami has allowed just 92.6 ppg at home. New York has averaged just 94.5 ppg overall and 93.2 ppg on the road and they shoot just 29.9% from long range on the road. The Knicks had been porous last year on defense and they used the offseason to help out that end of floor and it has helped some as they are allowing just 95.3 ppg overall and an impressive 91.3 ppg on the road. The Heat come in 2nd in scoring at 104.4 ppg and they have scored 106.6 ppg at home, but the loss of wade may be catching up a bit as they have averaged just 87 ppg in their last 2 games at home. I believe both of these teams will bring some defensive intensity and that along with the Knicks poor scoring output should keep the scoring down.
2 UNIT PLAY
Atlanta -6.5 over DETROIT: Hawks are playing good ball right now, despite the bad loss to the Spurs in their last game but a remedy may just be to take on a Pistons team that is a mess at both ends of the floor. Atlanta should win easily. Play on road favorites if they are outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. this play is 41-16 the last 5 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
Oklahoma City -4 over GOLDEN STATE: Play on road favorites off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This play is 43-17 the last 5 seasons. The Thunders are just a much better team and will have no problems winning by 7+ here.
FREE NBA PLAY FOR 1/27: Washington Wizards/Houston Rockets UNDER 199 Points (-110, BookMaker). The under is showing excellent value here with these two going toe-to-toe on Friday Night. Washington may be on a little offensive tear in their last couple of games at home. But on the road they are a diferrent story. The Wizards are averaging just 82.4 pts/game on a very low 38.4 shooting percentage on the road this year. And the under has cashed in eleven of their last fourteen road games. Houston still has the capability to score triple digits. But when the Rockets play losing teams, they often tend to slow the game down. Note that the under is 6-2 in the Rockets last 8 games as the home chalk, and 5-1 vs losing teams. The under is also 11-3 in the Wizards last 14 road games, and 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. And between these two clubs; the under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall, and a perfect 5-0 in the last five played in Houston. Play the under 199 here Friday Night. Our Free Picks are now 151-81-1. Sign up today to receive all of our free plays via email. Thank you, and good luck!