Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, January 28,2011

Terron Chapman

Orlando Magic vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic’s roster may have changed since the last time these two met, but Friday night the Magic will be out to show that their recent dominance over the Chicago Bulls hasn’t. The two will meet Friday night at the United Center in the second meeting of a four-game season series.

Jameer Nelson led five Magic players in double figures with 24 points and nine assists, as Orlando routed Chicago, 107-78, at United Center on Dec. 1. The Magic dominated the glass, outrebounding the Bulls, 44-21. It was the 10th win for the Magic in the last 12 regular season meetings.

Orlando had their three-game win streak snapped at home against Detroit, 103-96, but the Magic rebounded with a 111-96 thrashing of the Indiana Pacers Wednesday night. The Bulls enter winners of six of their last seven after a 92-83 win over Milwaukee Wednesday. Although the Bulls could be without their leader, Derrick Rose Friday. Rose is listed as questionable after being diagnosed with two ulcers that resulted in him missing Thursday’s practice. Rose’s availability will definitely affect the line. If Rose can’t go, we expect the market to adjust the line to around Orlando (-3 to -3.5) which makes when we get our wager in all the more important.

Even if Rose can go, the Magic have proven time and time again to be a difficult matchup for the Bulls. He give’s them a legitimate shot, especially at home. However, with no disrespect to Kurt Thomas--who has been outstanding this season--the Bulls have no one who can contend with Dwight Howard as long as Joakim Noah is in street clothes.

The Bulls will be out for revenge but whether or not they will be able to exact that revenge hinges on the health of their leader. Even still, the Bulls are tough at home (21-4) and their defense alone gives them a shot with or without Rose. But in the end, the Chicago still will not have an answer for Howard and we’ll look for that to be the difference. Play on the Orlando Magic (pk/-) the points for 1 unit.

Cajun Sports

Wright State vs. Wisc Green Bay
Play: Wisc Green Bay -2.5

Wisconsin-Green Bay enter tonight’s contest off an upset victory at Valparaiso on Sunday moving their current against the spread run to six-games. Wright State defeated Green Bay back on New Year’s Day hitting a three-pointer at the buzzer to steal the win 67 to 64. The Boys from the Bay will be seeking a measure of revenge here and they are 14-3 ATS revenging a road loss over the last 3 seasons. Green Bay is also 43-28 ATS in all games the last 3 years, 29-15 ATS against conference opponents and 15-6 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread the last 3 seasons. All these numbers point to a Fighting Phoenix victory on Friday night. Wisconsin presents matchup problems for Wright State and they should be very confident after almost pulling off the SU victory at Wright State as a nine-point underdog back on New Year’s Day. We will lay the short number here as the Phoenix take care of business and roll past the Raiders on their home floor tonight.

Rocketman Sports

Niagara vs. Canisius
Play: Canisius -12

Canisius is 11-2 ATS last 3 years and 2-0 ATS this year when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. Niagara is 2-12 SU on the road this year and scoring only 60.9 points per game. Purple Eagles are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games. Purple Eagles are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Purple Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Purple Eagles are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden Griffins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Golden Griffins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Golden Griffins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Metro Atlantic Athletic. Golden Griffins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Friday games. Golden Griffins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Golden Griffins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. We'll recommend a small play on Canisius tonight!

Craig Trapp

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers -3

Two of the best teams ATS NBA teams faceoff tonight. PHI really matches up well with MEM as they can stop Gay and Randolph without double teams. On the other hand PHI is a much deeper team that is a better defensive and rebounding team. PHI is also best team in league with 1 day rest going 14-2 ATS. this is a close game early but PHI defense wears down the road Grizzlies.

Bryan Leonard

Orlando Magic vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls +1

Big revenge game for the host who were embarrassed the last time these two met in this building as Orlando pounded Chicago 107-78 in December. Chicago has fared very well when stepping up in class posting a 10-5 spread record against winning teams. The Bulls also have the scheduling advantage being in the fifth of a six game homestand.

Orlando on the other hand has played in a different city in 11 of their last 12 games. After tonight they go back home for a single game against the worst team in the league Cleveland.
Chicago is 21-4 straight up at home this year and it's a statement game for the host. The Magic have beaten the Bulls the last three times by a combined 78 points. Chicago has to show Orlando that they are not a pushover or it's likely they will be quickly eliminated if these two go head to head in the playoffs.

Chip Chirimbes

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +3½

Two of the best point spread teams in the NBA clash tonight in Philadelphia (20-25, #29-15-1) as the 76ers host the Memphis Grizzlies (22-24, #27-18-1) while Philly is on a five game point spread run. The last time these two met the Grizzlies were able to pull off a 102-97 road win and I can see them doing that again. Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph too mush for Sixers. Take MEMPHIS!

Ben Burns

Orlando @ Chicago
PICK: Chicago

The Magic are slight favorites here. However, I believe the Bulls will be the team that comes away with the victory and that they should be the team which is favored.

Let's not forget that the Bulls are 21-4 at home while the Magic are 13-10 away from Orlando.

Also, keep in mind that the Bulls are 2-0 SU/ATS as home underdogs (or pick'em) of three or fewer points while the Magic are 1-4 SU/ATS as road favorites (or pick'em) of three or less.

True, Derrick Rose has been dealing with some "stomach ulcers." The Bulls have had a few day's off between games though - so, he should be able to go.

Chicago's Kurt Thomas noted: "We’ve played a lot of games over the last three weeks. I definitely believe we'll benefit from the three-day rest."

Note that the Bulls are a profitable 8-2 ATS the past few seasons, when playing with three day's rest in between games.

Some have been critical of the Bulls' recent performance. However, this team has still won three in a row and six of seven. They should have plenty of motivation, too. That's because the Magic absolutely destroyed them here on 12/1 , handing them their worst loss (107-78!) of the season.

While the Magic can certainly put up a lot of points, the Bulls are 15-5 SU the last 20 times that they faced an opponent which averages 99 or more points per game. They're also 14-6 SU the last 20 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. Consider Chicago.

Scott Spreitzer

Orlando @ Chicago
PICK: Orlando

Derrick Rose may play tonight despite suffering from stomach ulcers. He and his team have had a few nights off to heal. But Rose and his mates have seen a big drop-off in their shooting. The Bulls shot less than 40% last time out, but did win against Milwaukee. The team is just going through one of those NBA mid-season mini-slumps, plus a couple of key contributors aren't at full health. I like what the Magic did by making the early-season trade bringing Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, and Gilbert Arenas to town. But Stan Van Gundy could loosen the reigns a little bit. The team was playing a better brand of basketball before they "got used to each other." But they do own better work on the glass since the trades and they have dominated Chicago. Orlando has won the last three meetings by an average margin of 26 ppg. The closest win came by 20 points. Orlando is on a 6-2 ATS run as a road favorite and they're 47-27 ATS under Van Gundy when the line is in the +3/-3 range. I believe Orlando will continue their dominance of Chicago and grab the win and cover on Friday night.

Tom Freese

Boston Celtics at Phoenix
Prediction: Boston Celtics

Phoenix is 20-24 straight up this year. The Suns are 3-8-1 ATS their last 12 home games. The Suns are 1-4-1 ATS their last 6 games off a straight up loss. The Suns are 1-4-1 ATS off an ATS loss. Boston is 35-10 straight up this year. Boston is 10-2 ATS their last 12 games as road favorites of 0.5 to 4.5 points. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games vs. Pacific Division teams. Boston is 3-1-1 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. The Celtics are 7-2 ATS their last 9 meetings in Phoenix.

SPORTS WAGERS

PHILADELPHIA –3½ over Memphis

The Sixers are warming up again with three wins in a row and their last two home games against Utah and Phoenix were by double digits. The 76ers remain the most undervalued team in the NBA because of a 20-25 record but let’s not forget they started the year out with a 2-10 record. Philadelphia is 22-8 over its last 30 games and they’re doing it rather quietly. Philly is deep, they’re balanced, they play sound defense and they’re getting better with each passing week. They’re going to the playoffs and they’re very capable of knocking off a higher seed like Orlando, Chicago or Atlanta. The Grizz are just 9-17 on the road and their last three games were against Milwaukee, Toronto and New Jersey. They have some very ugly road losses already, they’ve never had success at this venue and that’s when the 76ers were complete dregs. Those days are now over for the 76ers and with the confidence and roll that they’re presently enjoying, beating this soft traveler should not be that difficult. This is a cheap lay on the surging 76ers at home. Play: Philadelphia –3 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

TORONTO +129 over Milwaukee

The Bucks are coming off a win over Atlanta and that’s nice but the fact is this is a team as bad as the Raps and offer up nothing but grief as road chalk. Prior to Milwaukee’s win over the Hawks, their last three wins were against Cleveland, Washington and New Jersey. The Bucks have just five wins over its last 15 games and overall they own just seven road wins in 23 games. The Raps are in the midst of an ugly nine-game losing streak and they have to know they can snap it here. They still have one of the best fan bases in the league, as they play to a sold out house just about every night despite its struggles. That’s inspiring and it makes the players want to win badly. What this team lacks in direction they make up for in effort and they’re on the verge of breaking out. Toronto has too many good shooters to keep losing at this pace and one really has to like their chances of snapping out of this thing against the poor shooting Bucks. Play: Toronto +129 (Risking 2 units).

CLEVELAND +10 over Denver

The Cav’s winless streak has hit 18 games and what that does is create an overly inflated line on the favorite. Nobody is wagering on the Cav’s these days and the books are over-compensating for their ineptitude. That gives us a pretty sweet number on this home dog against a Nuggets team that is really good but that is also prone to a whole bunch of no-shows. Denver is coming off three wins in a row and the latter two were by 14 and 11 points respectively. They also won in Detroit by nine in its last game and surely could figure that all they have to do is show up to win. So, there’s no point in breaking down the matchup. What we have here is a Cleveland team whose stock has hit rock bottom and that’s the best time to play on any team because of the aforementioned over-compensation in the number. Play: Cleveland +10 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Jim Feist

Pistons at Heat
Pick: Pistons

Detroit is rested for this one, one a 2-1 SU/ATS run despite being an underdog in all three. They were a 12-point dog at Orlando and won, 103-96. They have a Miami team playing the second of a back to back spot, after a trip to Madison Square Garden last night. Heat forward Chris Bosh is not traveling with Miami for the game against the New York Knicks because of his sprained left ankle. Bosh was hurt Jan. 15 in a loss to Chicago and has not played since. Bosh is averaging 18.6 points and 8.2 rebounds in his first season with Miami and this team is on a 1-4 SU/ATS run heading into the game. Play the Pistons.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Indiana Pacers -6

Off 6 straight losses, including back-to-back embarrassing defeats to Denver and Orlando, the Pacers will be extremely motivated when they hit the court tonight. And, they won't be lacking any confidence against a team they have defeated 4 straight times by an average of 13.3 points. The Nets have won 4 of 5, but all 4 of those wins came at home. New Jersey is just 3-21 on the road this season, where it is losing by an average of 8.6 points. The Nets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog. The Pacers haven't been favored since a win over Dallas on Jan. 12. I mention this because this is a team you want to take notice of when it is laying points. In fact, the Pacers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll lay the points with Indy tonight.

Matt Fargo

Orlando Magic vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls +1

In the last meeting on December 1st, the Bulls were two-point favorites against Orlando and were hammered by the Magic by 29 points. Chicago has gone 16-2 in its last 18 home games since then yet it finds itself as the underdog this time around. A lot of that could be attributed to Orlando starting to play much better with their new lineup getting more comfortable with each other but let’s face it, the Bulls are a tough out on their home floor and they have has the luxury of being in Chicago for the last 11days. Orlando has had a very streaky last couple months. The Magic went on a 1-8 run and many were calling for head coach Stan Van Gundy’s firing. That is until Orlando reeled off nine straight wins so get some of the confidence back. It then dropped three of its next four games and despite coming back with four wins in its last five games, it has been anything but special. During this 5-4 run, Orlando is just 3-3 on the road with the three wins coming against losing teams and the three losses coming against winning teams. Since that win in Chicago, the Magic have gone just 8-8 in their 16 road games after starting the season 5-2 in their first seven on the road. Only one of those wins came against an above .500 team and that was against Dallas which was without Dirk Nowitzki. This has now turned into a big revenge game for Chicago. Prior to this last beating, hard fouls by Dwight Howard sent Derrick Rose out of the Bulls' last two meetings last season with the Magic, which Orlando won by a combined 49 points. The Bulls are 14-5 ATS this season against teams averaging 99 or more ppg and with Orlando scoring 111 points in its last game, it sets it up well also knowing that Chicago is 20-8-2 ATS in its last 30 games when its opponent scores 100 or more points in its last game. Orlando is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of .600 or better while Chicago is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 3* Chicago Bulls

Frank Jordan

New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: New York Knicks +6.5

Coming off a big comeback home win over Miami the Knicks head down to play another Southeast division foe in the Hawks. Atlanta is coming off a loss, but have won seven of their last 10 games. At home Atlanta is 14-7 while the Knicks are .500 on the road at 12-12. Look for the Knicks to start winning again as they win down in hotlanta. Play New York