DAVE COKIN
GREEN BAY AT MILWAUKEE
PLAY: GREEN BAY +4.5
Green Bay wants to play Chip Kelly-style basketball. In other words, go as quickly as they possibly can. Milwaukee will try to stop the Phoenix from doing so, and that battle of wills is likely going to be the deciding factor in this game.
One way to measure what’s likely to happen is to see what Milwaukee has done playing extreme up tempo teams. Bottom line, the Panthers have had some troubles against this type of opponent. I show them 3-3 against top 100 adjusted tempo offenses. Two of those wins were against weak sisters, so I pretty much dismissed those. But Milwaukee lost to Duquesne, lost to South Dakota, nipped Detroit by three and lost to Oakland. That’s obviously a very small sample, but it’s at least a little revealing.
As for Green Bay, the Phoenix are now a completely different style team from past years, and it has not surprisingly taken the personnel some time to adjust. But the team has seemingly been improving and I look at that as a positive tonight.
This will be the first time in several meetings that Milwaukee will be the favorite against Green Bay, and while I can’t argue against that being the case, I see this as a matchup that might end up favoring the underdog. I’ll take the points with Green Bay this evening.
Sleepyj
Columbia -2.5
I feel strong about this wager tonight...Columbia the clear better team here tonight by far..It's never easy going on the road in any CBB game, but i feel this one could cover rather easy tonight...We take a look at both teams and a few things really stick out in the favor of Columbia....On the offensive end we notice that we are a very good assisting team..That helps because Dartmouth has a decent defense..We can find some open looks in this game tonight with good passing...Columbia also shoots a very good FG%..They are a full 6% pts higher then Dartmouth..I things that huge for us here..Passing the ball also helps that stat for us tonight...Columbia wins the turnover battle here as Dartmouth ranks in at 260th in turnovers..That's not very good..Always nice to get a few extra looks at the basket on the road...We also have a slight edge from the free throw line here tonight, but Columbia fouls less per game..So we win that area here on both ends...Rebounds are about even for both sides..Nothing really sticks out in that area...One thing I was surprised with is that Columbia is actually the better 3pt defending team..Columbia ranks 96th in the nation, while Dartmouth ranks 122nd..Not a wide gap, but that helps us here on the road because, Dartmouth isn't even close to Columbia on 3pt FG made...Columbia ranks 38th in 3pt FG %...Which is huge for us on the road..Dartmouth ranks 176th...So we have a wide gap with that stat...Dartmouth isn't a big 3pt shooting team, but with the defense we play in this game from beyond the arc, it could cause trouble for Dartmouth if they need 3pt shots to close the gap...We also win the blocks battle and the turnover to assists battle by a wide margin..We look at revenge in this game and Columbia was swept by Dartmouth last year...So we got some double-revenge dating back to last year...I'll take the road favorite here with the Lions tonight..I think they get it done for us..We win enough head to head matchups here and some of the stat areas i touched on are rather far apart...Columbia is hanging right at the top and a loss here would hurt them as we come down the stretch..Look for a solid game tonight from the Lions and they should grab a win here on the road.
Rob Vinciletti
Green Bay vs. Wisc-Milwaukee
Play: Wisc-Milwaukee -4½
Milwaukee is off a tough home loss on Monday to Oakland should rebound nicely here tonight against Wisconsin Green Bay who has lost 6 of 8 vs winning teams and 22 of 28 as a road dog from +3.5 to +6 points. Milwaukee has revenge in this one and should win and cover.
Marc Lawrence
Cavaliers vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons +4½
Edges - Pistons: 9-1 ATS on Fridays. Cavaliers: 2-9 ATS as division road favorites. With Cleveland off a 22-point home win and looking dead ahead to a revenge rematch with San Antonio tomorrow evening, we recommend a 1* play on Detroit.
Mike Lundin
Cavaliers vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons +4½
This looks like a good spot to take the points on the Detroit Pistons as they host the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday night. The Pistons are very solid home at the Palace with a 15-7 SU record while going 15-6-1 ATS. They recorded a 104-99 home win over Cleveland on Nov. 17 and they're 11-5 ATS on the last 16 meetings in the series overall. The Cavs are off a pair of blowout wins against Phoenix and Minnesota but I wouldn't read too much into these results as they fell 96-83 to the Bulls last Saturday in their most recent matchup against a competent team. The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Friday night games and I think the home town crowd will spur them on to a big performance tonight. We can also note that the Cavs are in a massive look ahead spot with the Spurs on deck tomorrow.
Ari Atari
Hornets vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -5½
Damian Lillard gets snubbed again for the second straight year even though he was added in as a reserve for Blake Griffin out of consolation. This is his day to prove the doubters wrong once again. The Blazers were supposed to be rebuilding without Aldridge, Batum and Matthews but they're in the 8th spot in the West and lighting up teams recently under Lillard and McCollum's hot hands. The team itself is sharing the ball well with 6 wins out of 8 games. I don't recommend this play for more than 1 unit at -5.5. I like it more at -4 but the spread has moved.
Scott Spreitzer
Magic vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -8
Orlando has lost seven in a row and 11 of its last 12 games after a 107-100 loss at Milwaukee on Tuesday. This is the third road game in five days for the Magic, including an overtime loss at Memphis, which followed a loss in overtime at home against Charlotte. Orlando is 0-5 ATS its last five games and 10-26-1 its last 37 games in Boston. Victor Oladipo scored 18 points against Milwaukee but the Magic shot only 41.2 percent from the field while the Bucks shot nearly 50 percent. Boston has won four straight after defeating Denver 111-103 on Wednesday. Avery Bradley scored 27 points for the Celtics and Kelly Olynyk added 17 points while Amir Johnson grabbed 13 rebounds. Boston wants to avenge a 110-91 blowout loss at Orlando on Nov. 29 when the Celtics made just five of 27 three-point attempts. Orlando is 1-6 ATS its last seven road games and the home team is 8-0 ATS the last eight meetings.
Jim Feist
Wolves vs. Jazz
Play: Wolves +8
Minnesota has a strong young offense that likes to run, No. 12 in the NBA in points allowed, and the Timberwolves are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Zach LaVine poured in 35 points in a 126-123 loss to Oklahoma City. In Monday's loss at Cleveland, LaVine, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns became the first players under age 21 in NBA history to score 20 points each in the same game. On Wednesday, Towns delivered a 19-point, 13-rebound double-double, Wiggins scored 20 right on the number and LaVine's 35 was two shy of his career-high 37, reached at Golden State late last season. Utah is home but on a 3-5 SU run and the Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. When these teams clash the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Utah.
John Ryan
Pennsylvania vs. Yale
Play: Yale -13
In the database of 351 Division I basketball programs, Penn ranks 264th and Yale ranks 84th so you can immediately why Yale would be favored by 13 ½ points. However, the number does not reflect the cast difference in team execution at both ends of the court between these two teams. More importantly, SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Yale will win this game by at least 17 points. The biggest difference between these two teams is Yale has a much better defensive presence. They rank 25th in points allowed and ninth in opponent rebounding. Penn ranks 129th in points allowed and 286th in opponent rebounding. Yale will do a great job defending their glass and this will minimize multi-shot possessions by Penn, who already has trouble scoring ranking 275th in overall shooting efficiency. Further, we see that Yale is just 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) when they grab 10+ fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 3 seasons.
Larry Ness
Virginia Commonwealth at Davidson
Prediction: Virginia Commonwealth
The Rams opened the season 5-5, after a three-game losing streak from Dec 6-19. However, Virginia Commonwealth has won 10 in a row since, including a 7-0 start in A-10 play. Shaka Smart disciple Will Wade has continued his own version of “Shaka Ball" and the “havoc” that terrorized foes the past few seasons under Smart is beginning to take hold under Wade, with the Rams averaging 89.8 PPG their last four and on the season, VCU is up to fifth nationally in TO margin (+5.4 per). Yes, the Rams miss the 6-6 Graham, who led the team in both scoring (16.7) and rebounding (7.1) last year but VCU is obviously coming together.
Holdover guard Melvin Johnson (18.3) has led in scoring all season and and fellow guard Korey Billbury (11.5-5.0), an Oral Roberts transfer, has been very solid. PG Lewis (10.8-5.0 APG) give the team a nice guard trio, although the frontcourt is mediocre at best. The 6-7 Alie-Cox (9.6-4.4) is the best of the bunch, with the 6-7 Tillman (7.0-6.0) and the 6-9 Mohammed (6.0-4.0) supplying support. 6-5 guard Burgess (5.4-4.6), who supplied many key intangibles for the Rams, has been sidelined with a hand injury since Jan 5 but the Rams continue to win without him.
VCU’s ‘thin’ frontcourt will NOT be tested by Davidson, which really doesn’t have much up front other than the 6-8 Aldridge (16.3-6.4). The 6-7 Ekwu (3.8-5.3) and the 6-9 Michelson (5.5-2.0) typically start but offer little production. However, the team’s perimeter is led by Gibbs (24.8-4.4-5.2) and Sullivan (13.9-4.3-3.5) plus Barham (10.3-4.1) off the bench. Now Davidson is 10-0 SU at home this year but the Wildcats are a poor defensive team, allowing 79.7 PPG (325th) and will NOT be able to trade points with the red-hot Rams (on a 10-0 SU & 7-1 ATS run). No ‘barking ‘ tonight by this home dog.
Art Aronson
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Motivated LeBron: After taking heat that he was a "coach killer," The King has dominated in back-to-back victories, going 18 of 23 combined. Note that the Cavs have averaged 114.5 points and 52.9 percent shooting in that span.
Road warriors: Cleveland is tied for the best road record in the East at 14-9 and has limited its opposition to just 92.4 PPG in regulation away from friendly confines.
Revenge factor: Detroit beat Cleveland 104-99 on November 17th.
If history is any precedence: Then the visitors have to be loving their chances today, they're 1-4 SU their last five in Detroit.
The bottom line: Detroit didn't have to face Kyrie Irving in the first matchup and with a game tomorrow night at Toronto, it's not too hard to imagine the home side a bit distracted in this one. We think a revenge minded and hungry CAVALIERS team will pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
Big Al
Minnesota vs. Utah
Pick: Utah
The Jazz blew out Charlotte, 102-73, in their last game, played two nights ago. And that was their biggest win in over a year. I look for Utah to treat the Timberwolves in similar fashion, as Utah is 21-9 ATS at home when playing with rest off a win by 18+ points, and it's 28-12 ATS off a win by 24+ points!
Power Sports
Manhattan vs. Iona
Pick: Iona
Iona is off an outright loss here, 98-91 at Fairfield on Sunday, which dropped them to a pretty hideous 1-9-1 ATS their L11 games overall. No longer are the Gaels in first place in the MAAC as they now trail Monmouth by a full game. But in what is a revenge spot, I look for them to roll tonight, big time, at home vs. Manhattan.
Making Sunday's loss all the more frustrating is the fact Iona got back leading scorer Jordan Washington from a two-game suspension (for his role in a post-game "skirmish" vs. Monmouth). He responded with a career-high 33 points in his return, but Fairfield's best player Marcus Gilbert was up to the challenge and delivered his own career-high w/ 33 pts. Incredibly, Iona never led in the contest after falling behind 16-2 out of the gate. That's a far cry from their previous game when the Gaels led by as many as 21 here at home against St. Peter's (before eventually getting backdoored).
Manhattan, meanwhile, may be prone to a letdown here after upsetting Monmouth last week as 9.5-point home underdogs. The Jaspers are just 2-6 straight up on the road this year, 1-6 against the spread, while getting outscored by nearly 14 points per game in the process. Iona will certainly remember what the Jaspers did to them at the end of last year, which was pull off a 79-69 upset (as 3.5-pt dogs) in the MAAC Tournament Final, sending the Gaels to the NIT while Manhattan got to go to the Big Dance. With Iona 33-3 SU their L36 home games and averaging 82.3 PPG here this season, I'm confident that they'll cover the number tonight.
Brandon Shively
Cavaliers vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons +4½
I'm not sold on this Cleveland team currently and neither should you be. They are in the middle of operating a new system under HC Tyron Lue. They are 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS under Lue. The win at home against Phoenix really means nothing. The Suns are the worst team in the NBA. They have a much stiffer challenge tonight against a Detroit team that has covered 73% of their last 30 home games going 22-7-1 ATS.
After giving up 115 points to New Orleans last week, HC Van Gundy emphasized on the team to play better defense. They have responded only allowing 44% over their last three games.
Detroit has showed poise when playing good teams at home as they beat the Golden State Warriors a few weeks ago. They beat the Cavs earlier this season also, 104-99. They also beat the Bulls at home as a homedog, and lost to the Clippers by two points. I will note that Detroit did lose to the Spurs 109-99 a few weeks ago, but they just didn't have their best stuff that night.
While the Cavs won't totally overlook this game, there is a much bigger game on deck Saturday night at home vs. the Spurs as they just lost a tough game to the Spurs a few weeks ago when they had the lead the majority of the game until the 4th quarter. Detroit plays at Toronto on Saturday who is as hot as a firecracker, so they know the importance of winning this game on their home court tonight. We just need a cover.
Cleveland is 4-5-1 ATS on the road this season when laying six or less points. They are 0-2 SU when laying -4.5 points losing to Detroit and New Orleans.
Wunderdog
Wright State @ Oakland
Pick: Wright State +5.5
Two of the top four teams in the Horizon League clash in this one. This is the only home game for Oakland during a rough stretch playing five of six away. The last time they were home the Grizzlies were -13 chalk against Northern Kentucky and lost 90-73. They face a talented and red-hot Wright State Raiders team that is 7-1 in the Horizon League while riding a six-game winning streak, plus winning 10 of the last 11 contests. Wright State wrapped up a 5-0 homestand and won its sixth straight overall Sunday with an 80-66 Horizon League decision over Illinois-Chicago. Wright State is also on a 7-3-1 spread run. Take the points Wright State in this one.