SPORTS WAGERS
DARTMOUTH +4 over Columbia
Columbia has won nine of their last 10, but seven of those 10 victories were in its own barn. Columbia’s sole defeat in this stretch came at Stony Brook, where the Lions were tamed by nine points. With their most recent 9-point win over Cornell on the road, early action has come in on the Lions who boast an impressive 13-6 record on the season while appearing far more delectable in comparison to Dartmouth’s 7-9 record overall. However, the Lions are just 3-4 on the road and this will be only their third game overall during the past 20 days. The Lions last four games have come against Maryland-Eastern Shore, Central Pennsylvania College and back-to-back games against a weak Cornell program. As a result of that weak slate, there are some skewed numbers to go with it.
Meanwhile, Big Green have won six of their seven victories at home this season and also enter this fixture on a three-game winning streak. Dartmouth is currently riding a hot hand after a rough stretch that saw them lose six of seven. To break this down mathematically, 66.6% of Columbia’s losses came on the road, while 85.7% of Dartmouth’s wins came on its own court. Dartmouth now enters with a chance to take down one of the Ivy League’s better teams on the season in a robust rivalry series. Dartmouth has won four of its last five on their own floor and it owns wins over certainly formidable opponents such as Harvard and Canisius where the Big Green won those two fixtures by an average of 12 points. Darmouth’s sole defeat in that stretch was by a mere bucket to Bryant in a New Year’s Eve spectacle that saw the game tied at halftime and six total lead changes over the course of the game. This matinee was a melee but further showcased the tenacity Dartmouth plays with at home, even in defeat. With Columbia’s toils away from New York and Dartmouth riding heat at home all season, we wouldn’t be surprised if an upset was in the works. Dartmouth has won the last two games in this series and did so by an average margin of 12½ points. The Big Green have an edge on the boards, especially on the offensive end. In the end, Columbia's win expectation on the road is not higher than Dartmouth's win expectation at home in an evenly priced game. We're calling the upset but we'll take the academic approach and grab the points.
Teddy Covers
Orlando vs. Boston
Pick: Boston
This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions right now. On January 1st, the Magic had a one game lead over the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Playoff race, sitting in fifth place in the East.
Since that time, Orlando has gone into a 1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS tailspin, falling into a tie at #12 in the East. Meanwhile, the Celtics have won four straight and seven of their last nine, a surging team here in January.
Things have gone from bad to worse for the Magic of late, a team finding ways to lose. They dropped back-2-back overtime games, then blew a 16 point lead and watched a one point deficit turn into a seven point final margin of defeat in the final 15 seconds at Milwaukee on Tuesday.
The quotes coming out of the Orlando locker room during this skid have been universally negative, with players and staff appearing to prod each other through the media. Tobias Harris, following a crushing OT defeat at home to Charlotte last weekend: "In difficult times you have to fight your way through and you've got to come with a positive attitude every single day. If we just sit around and mope and pout, that's going to affect us in the next game. We have to have a clear mindset and get back to where we want to be." Read between the lines and you can practically hear him ripping his teammates.”
Head coach Scott Skiles, following their previous loss, at home to lowly Philadelphia: "Our lack of competitiveness is frightening, really. They were pushing us all around on both ends of the floor and we basically capitulated. If that's all we can muster mentally, it's not going to look good for us the rest of the year. Our goal right now should be just simply to win a game."
Guard Victor Oladipo following the loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday "It's almost like a repetitive thing, almost like a bad dream. It’s tough, but (at) the end of the day our confidence can't waver because once that happens, it's over.” It’s surely worth noting that Orlando failed to win or cover despite a red hot night from three point range, connecting on 13-24 from beyond the arc. For a 35% three point shooting team, they’ll be hard pressed to match that level of long range efficiency tonight.
Boston’s offense has been productive all year, but it’s their defense that has keyed their recent surge, bad news for a struggling offense like that of the Magic. Celtics forward Amir Johnson following Wednesday’s win over Denver: “Really our main focus is defense. Once we get stops on defense we're able to get out and get finishes and points. Defense these last four games has been huge for us. Just lock down and stop our opponents."
Brad Stevens squad has hung 110+ on each of their last four opponents, winning every game by eight points or more during that span. Anything close to that level of production here and we can expect a comfortable win and cover for the home favorite.
Scott Rickenbach
Lakers vs. Clippers
Play: Lakers +15
The Lakers were in a tough spot last night as they faced a highly motivated Bulls team. Chicago was upset off of a loss and they basically "took it" to the Lakers which I had correctly predicted right here yesterday. Now the Lakers are the ones that will be fired up (after yesterday's ugly loss) and I look for them to hang well within the generous number being offered tonight. Sure the Clippers are the far superior team in this match-up but the Clips just got back from a road trip back east and those trips are often tough to bounce back from in the first game back. Additionally, some tight low-scoring wins means that the Clips are unlikely to be very motivated about trying to earn a blowout win over the city rival Lakers tonight. The fact is that the Clips just want to do enough to notch a victory here and then move on to a tougher match-up (with Chicago) Sunday. The Clippers are just 2-6 ATS in divisional games this season. The last two match-ups between these teams were both wins for the Clips but only by an average margin of 7.5 points per victory. Look for the Lakers to keep this one in single digits after the beatdown they took last night. Professional pride kicks in for Kobe and Company tonight.
Jack Jones
Dallas Mavericks -8.5
The Dallas Mavericks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost three of their last four coming in, but that has largely been due to a tough schedule, which certainly lightens up tonight with the Brooklyn Nets coming to down.
Indeed, the Mavs have had to play three road games in their last four with losses at Houston and Golden State. They also lost by 3 at home to the Oklahoma City Thunder. But the Mavs are a good home team at 13-8 SU & 14-7 ATS on the season, so they should get right back on track in a big way tonight.
The Brooklyn Nets are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season at 12-34 overall, including 4-16 on the road. The Nets have lost 11 of their last 13 games overall and have rarely been competitive. Seven of their last eight losses have come by 12 points or more.
Dallas is 8-1 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more this season. The Mavericks are 48-27 ATS in their last 75 games off a blowout road loss by 20 points or more. The Nets are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Dallas is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games following an ATS loss.
Brandon Lee
Hornets vs. Blazers
Play: Hornets +6½
Charlotte comes into this game off an 73-102 loss at Utah on Wednesday, which in turn has created some great value here on the Hornets as a decently priced road dog against the Trail Blazers. The thing to keep in mind with Charlotte's blowout loss to the Jazz is they simply had nothing left in the tank after a double-overtime win at Sacramento in their previous game. I look for the Hornets to bounce back in a big way and wouldn't be surprised at all if they won this game outright. Portland is playing better basketball of late, but this is not an elite team by any means and they already lost by 12-point on the road to Charlotte earlier this season. Hornets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss by 10 or more points and Trail Blazers are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 against the Eastern Conference.
Ray Monohan
Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5
The Thunder welcome in Houston on Friday night and the home side offers a nice play here given the circumstances. Yes Houston was won 3 of their last 4, but their most previous outing was a blowout loss to the
Spurs. The Rockets have no problem beating up on the bad teams in the NBA, but when it comes to the top tier teams, they never seem to show up. This month the Rockets have played the Spurs twice and Cleveland once. All three games were dominated by the opposition as the Rockets had nothing going for them on either end of the floor.
Oklahoma City is an astounding 21-5 at home this season and overall they’ve won 24 of their last 29. Laying the points with them here is a solid move. Oklahoma City is a much better team and they even have the players and depth to slow down Harden and Howard, which is really all the Rockets have.
Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Dave Price
Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5
I actually find the Oklahoma City Thunder to be undervalued tonight, which is a rarity for them. They are playing well as they have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall, but that has not been reflected at the pay window. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, which has scared the betting public off a bit. Now they are only 7.5-point home favorites against one of the most inconsistent teams in the NBA in the Houston Rockets, who are coming off a 31-point loss at San Antonio. The Rockets just cannot be trusted to show up on a nightly basis as they have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league at 25-23 on the season. The Thunder are 21-5 at home this season and winning by nearly 10 points per game on average. Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a same season loss against an opponent that is coming off a road loss to a division opponent are 25-6 ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
Detroit Pistons +4½
I feel like this is a great spot to back the Pistons at home as a decently priced underdog against the Cavaliers. Detroit comes in off back-to-back wins and are a team that when they show up with the right type of energy are capable of beating any team in the league at home. Just ask Golden State, who they beat by 18 not that long ago.
Cleveland comes in off back-to-back wins of their own, but there's nothing to get excited about beating Minnesota and Phoenix on your home floor. The Cavaliers made easy work of the Suns, but struggled to put away the Timberwolves in a 7-point win. I still think it's going to take some time for Cleveland to adjust to the new style of play under new head coach Tyronn Lue.
Another huge factor here is that this is a huge lookahead spot for the Cavaliers, as they are set to host the Spurs tomorrow in a prime time showdown on ABC. As much as they say their attention is on Detroit, Cleveland desperately wants to prove itself against an elite team like San Antonio. I just don't see the Cavaliers matching the intensity of the Pistons in this one.
Cleveland is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a home win scoring 110 or more points and just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite. Pistons on the other hand are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 home games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games.
Chase Diamond
Detroit Pistons +4½
This game features the 32-12 Cavs and the 25-21 Pistons. The Cavs have won two straight but have not been covering a'lot of games lately. Last time these two teams met up Pistons beat them 104-99 at Cleveland. Pistons are 15-7 at home and I believe tonight they will give them a run for their money keeping it close to the buzzer. I love that 82% of the public are backing the Cavs here gives us great value I expect a public slaughter tonight.
Brad Diamond
Princeton vs. Brown
Play: Princeton -9½
Princeton (11-4) has most floor advantages when they face Brown (5-11) early Friday evening. The Bears major weakness is their defense which has allowed 85 points per game, last five times out. And, with the Tigers still in the running for the conference, look for a major effort from the visitor. Princeton comes 6-2 ATS in the series, and a solid 38-15 ATS in Friday editions.
Hollywood Sports
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder
Houston (25-23) looks to rebound from a 130-99 loss at San Antonio on Wednesday. The Rockets have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Oklahoma City (35-13) has covered the point spread in 5 straight games on their home court. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record, the Thunder have covered the point spread in all 4 games.
Vegas Butcher
Oklahoma City Thunder -8
Do you know that going back to last year the Rockets have now won 4 in a row against OKC? Part of the issue is that Durant missed a lot of time last year but he did play in the first meeting of the year this season, which took place very early in the season on 11/02. It’s important to note though that OKC was on a b2b and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights in that one. The first game of that 3in4 set was a double-OT win against @ Orlando, and after a home win the night before, OKC had to travel to Houston to take on the Rockets. Houston was also in a 3in4 spot but their previous 2 games were both blowout losses, so their players didn’t play as many minutes. What’s interesting is that OKC led by 11 at the half and by 14 at one point in the 3rd quarter, before fatigue caught up with them. I believe the rematch tonight will be much more different. First of all, I feel there’s some value at this number. The first meeting had OKC as -4.5 road favorites. Tonight, they’re only 3.5 points higher, and that’s while playing at home. Second of all, OKC has the biggest statistical advantage here as their 3rd ranked offensive eFG% is going up against the 27th ranked defensive eFG% allowed of the Rockets. Additionally, Thunder rank 1st in offensive rebounding rate, while the Rockets are second-to-last in defensive rebounding, and that’s with Dwight Howard on the roster. I want to point out that both teams rank top-10 in pace, and there’s no need to expect anything less than a fast-paced game in this one. OKC’s offensive efficiency and Houston’s defensive inefficiency will become more and more pronounced with more possessions in this one. I think a motivated OKC squad will be able to really take advantage of these two statistical edges as they build the lead throughout this game.
David Banks
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Pick: Detroit Pistons +4.5
Not all that long ago, the Pistons and Cavaliers were the two best teams in the Eastern Conference, battling for a shot at the NBA Finals for a few years. While Detroit’s success faded, Cleveland’s has returned thanks to the return of their star LeBron James.
The problem for the Cavs is that the Pistons seem to save some of their best play for the best that the NBA has to offer.
In the first meeting between the two teams back in November, Detroit rallied late and got some clutch free throws from Andre Drummond to defeat Cleveland, 104-99. Drummond finished a monster night with 25 points and 18 rebounds. James did score 30 with 23 of his points coming in the first half. Detroit also got 20-point nights from Reggie Jackson (23 and 12 assists) and Ersan Ilyasova (20).
Should that happen again, Detroit will be in business and if they play like they have against some of the best teams in the league the Pistons will record another victory over James and company. Over the past two weeks, Detroit has recorded victories over Golden State (113-95) and Houston (123-114). Drummond appears to be a lock for his first berth the NBA All-Star Game and Jackson, who leads Detroit in scoring (18.9 ppg) and assists (6.6), just may be joining him. Detroit finishes a four-game road trip on Jan. 25 with a visit to Utah.
Harry Bondi
MIAMI -1 over Milwakee
FREE WINNERS are on a nice 10-4 run and tonight take revenge over history. Miami was blown out 91-79 at home by the Bucks on January 19th. Dwayne Wade was held to a career low 2 points and left the game in the 4th quarter with shoulder soreness. Since that game, Wade has been tremendous averaging 25.7 points while hitting 51% of his shots. He and fellow All Star Chris Bosch will need to continue their outstanding play tonight as Miami has not beaten the Bucks in nearly two years!Like we said , we like revenge and the way the Heat are playing now over history and what has happened in the past tonight.
Bruce Marshall
Wright St +5.5
Since high-octane Oakland has been better as a visiting dog (7-1) than home team TY (3-3 vs. the spread), willing to take around 3 hoops with streaking Horizon co-leader WSU, seeking its 7th straight win. The Golden Grizzlies won't easily get into an offensive groove vs. the defensively-sticky Raiders (63.8 ppg). With WSU's potent 6-4 swingman Mark Alstork (12.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg; Ball State transfer) working so well in tandem with sr. PG "Biggie" Minnis (Rhode Island transfer; 7 ppg, 3.5 apg), this one is decided late. Double revenge works.
Dartmouth +4
Dartmouth...Ivy contender? Perhaps so, after a recent split with league favorite Harvard, including last weekend's 63-50 win over the Crimson in remote Hanover. Big Green vet HC Paul Cormier might have the Ivy newcomer MVP in rampaging 6-8 frosh F Evan Boudreaux (15.3 ppg for the season; 19.1 ppg last seven!), and Columbia wasn't within single digits in a pair of losses vs. the New Hampshire bunch last season.