Dr. Bob
Opinion – Orlando (+8) over BOSTON
The Magic are just 1-11 straight up and 2-10 ATS but they haven’t really played that poorly in their last 3 games since Oladipo returned to the lineup, as the blew a big lead in a 4 point loss to Charlotte, lost by 6 as a 5 ½ point dog in overtime at Memphis and were neck and neck at Milwaukee on Tuesday (up by 1 with 1:10 left in the game) before losing by 7. Orlando’s 6 game losing streak actually sets up the Magic in a 133-75 ATS situation that plays on decent teams as road underdogs on a long losing streak. My ratings favor Boston by 7 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll lean with Orlando plus the points.
UTAH (-8) over Minnesota
Utah is a good team with defensive star Rudy Gobert playing, as the Jazz are 6-13 straight up without Gobert playing and 14-12 straight up with him in the lineup. Utah is only 5-6 ATS since Gobert returned to the lineup but they’d be 7-4 ATS if not for losing 2 bets as underdogs in overtime. Minnesota, meanwhile, is not as good without Kevin Garnett (he’s out tonight), who leads the Timberwolves with a +56 plus-minus, which is very good for a team that is -180 points overall this season. Garnett is valuable because he’s still a defensive presence in the paint and the Timberwolves have only allowed 93.4 points per 48 minutes with Garnett on the court and they allow 105.3 points per 48 minutes with Garnett on the bench. My ratings favor Utah by 10½ points with current lineups and Utah tends to play better against lesser teams, as evidenced by their 12-4 ATS mark as a favorite of more than 2 points. I’ll take Utah in a 1-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less.
Note: The line has moved up a bit since I released this play to my subscribers but I still lean with Utah at -8 1/2 or -9.
Opinion – OVER (192.5) – Minnesota at UTAH
As mentioned above Minnesota’s defense is much worse without Garnett and the Timberwolves also play at a faster pace without Garnett, which is why the T’Wolves are 7-1-1 OVER this season in the games Garnett has not played (7-0-1 OVER if Rubio plays). I get a projected total of 200½ points with Garnett out (and Gobert playing for Utah) and I’ll lean OVER 194 points or less.
Alex Smart
Hornets at Blazers
Play: Blazers
The Charlotte Hornets have not had more than one day off in more than two weeks and won't again until finishing a four-game trip against the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. The Hornets must be considered exhausted and looked extremely tired vs the Utah Jazz last time out in a 102-73 loss. In the previous 5 games to that, the Hornets played two OT games, and some very physical hard fought altercations in two others. Meanwhile, the Blazers are on 3 days rest, and have won six of eight overall after beating Sacramento 112-97 on Tuesday. I'm betting on the fresher side delivering the dough to their backers in this spot.
Goodfella
Pistons +2 1st Half
A bit of a look-ahead spot here for these Cavs this evening. These Cavs return home to host the Spurs tomorrow night. I look for a very motivated and focused Pistons club to give these Cavs some fits early on. Detroit is a solid club overall who have a great head coach in Stan Van Gundy. I like these Pistons to play along with these Cavs in this spot tonight & I am playing them +2 for the 1st half here tonight.