Scott Rickenbach
Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks
PICK: Atlanta Hawks -4
The Hawks are coming off of a road game at San Antonio (a 15 point loss!) on Wednesday and they are returning home where they are an amazing 18-5 this season. While Atlanta is in a favorable situation from a scheduling standpoint, note that this is not a good spot for Boston. The Celtics are in a back to back spot after playing at Orlando last night and letting a win slip away as they lost by two points in the final seconds. Boston entered their game with the Magic with an ugly 6-8 record in their prior 14 games. This poor stretch for the Celtics has included losses to the Hawks both in Boston and in Atlanta. While Kevin Garnett missed both of those games, his return does not automatically insure victory for Boston here. In fact, earlier this season in Boston, the Celtics also lost by double digits versus the Hawks.
Atlanta has won all three match-ups with Boston this season and the average margin of victory has been 8 points per game. It’s apparent that are some issues here for the Celtics in terms of matching up with the Hawks this season. Also, in their five most recent back-to-back spots this season, the Celtics have lost the second game four times. The average margin of those defeats in the second game has been eight points! After a big battle with the Magic in Orlando last night, we just don’t foresee the Celtics having enough left in the tank to take care of business in this back to back spot. As a result, look for Boston to drop to 1-5 in Game Two of its last six back to back situations while the Hawks improve to 4-0 against the Celtics this season. Consider a small play on Atlanta in the NBA on Friday night.
LARRY NESS
Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks
PICK: Atlanta Hawks -4
The Hawks haven't won a division title since 1993-94 but are currently in a real 'dogfight' with the Magic (Atlanta is 29-15 and Orlando 30-16) for the top spot in the Southeast Division. The Hawks will visit Orlando tomorrow but first they host the Celtics tonight. Boston blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead at Orlando last night, as the Magic came back to win 96-94. The Celtics won all four meetings last season vs the Hawks but the Hawks have "turned the tables" on Boston this year, winning all three previous meetings so far. Atlanta goes for a season series sweep tonight, something it hasn't accomplished vs Boston since the strike-shortened 1998-99 season. Boston's tough loss in Orlando last night was its NINTH in 15 games, as the Celtics didn't have Garnett (14.7-7.3) for 10 of those contests (was out from Dec 30-Jan 20). Garnet had returned to score 30 points in his first two games back but last night finished with just six points while making only two of eight FG attempts. Atlanta's addition of Jamal Crawford (17.4) to join Johnson (21.3-4.8-4.8) and Bibby (9.0-4.4 APG) in the backcourt has been huge. Atlanta's young frontcourt of forwards Smith (15.1-8.5) and Williams 910.5-5.0) plus center Horford (13.6-9.8) was already the envy of most teams but now the Hawks have a "group of six" which matches up favorably with almost every team. With KG back, Boston can say the same thing, as Pierce (18.7-4.8-3.6) and Perkins (11.9-8.3) join him up front with Allen (16.0) and Rondo (14.1-4.3-9.6) starting in the backcourt. Veteran Rasheed Wallace (10.5-4.5), like Crawford, has been the invaluable off-season addition. Are the Celtics due to beat the Hawks? After all, KG has missed two of the three losses this year. Maybe so but I'm sticking with the home team which is 18-5 SU and an impressive 16-7 ATS at home this season. Take the Hawks.
Dave Price
1 Unit on New Orleans Hornets -4
It's been a good run by the Bulls, winning 4 straight on the road, but I fully expect it to come to an end tonight against a Hornets team that is 16-4 at home on the season and playing great basketball. The Hornets have quietly won 12 of their last 16 games and they will be especially hungry to end a 3-game losing streak to the Bulls tonight. To me this says it all: plays against road underdogs, an average defensive team (allowing 43.5-45.5% shooting), against a poor defensive team (allowing 45.5-47.5% shooting) after 42+ games, and after 5 straight games allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less, are 23-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. In other words, odds makers have made the Bulls this big of a dog for a reason tonight. Lay the points.
Jack Jones
Chicago Bulls vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: New Orleans Hornets -4
The Bulls have been hot lately, winning four straight on the road against teams like the Suns, Rockets, Spurs, and Thunder, but the Hornets are playing just as well with wins in four of their last five games as well.
Even with their recent hot streak, the Bulls are 8-15 on the road this year while the Hornets are 16-4 on their home floor. Chicago scores just 94.5 ppg against teams who allow 99.5 ppg, while allowing 100.6 ppg to teams who score 100.1.
New Orleans is giving up just 97.4 ppg to teams who average 100.4 ppg in New Orleans, and with the way Chris Paul is running this offense right now I can see him picking apart the Bulls.
Lenny Del Genio
LAL -6.5 vs PHI
The Lakers seem to have officially recovered from an early January slump by winning back to back non-conference games over Washington and Indiana by 12 and 22 points and tonight should find little resistance from the host Sixers as Kobe Bryant returns to his hometown. Philadelphia has been a giving host all season with a 5-17 ATS mark at the Wachovia Center, including 1-7 ATS when taking points. Over the last three seasons, this team is 0-8 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Lakers will remember a one-point home loss last year at home to the 76ers and thus take this game very seriously. Take LA Lakers.
GoodFella
MIN +1 vs LAC
This is the 4th meeting between these two clubs this season tonight. The Clippers have won all 3 so far this season. They have HOME wins over Minny by 3 pts and 4 pts and Minny covered both of those ballgames. In these clubs last meeting on Dec 16th AT Minnesota--The Clippers crushed Minny (120-95) as 1 pt dogs. So we can see that Minnesota has in-season Triple Revenge going tonight & they should be VERY motivated for this game tonight. The Clippers are playing their 4th ROAD GAME in 6 days tonight, a very tough spot--as they are in the middle of a 8 game East Coast roadie, & they are coming off a (103-87) blowout loss AT New Jersey in their last game on Wednesday. The Clippers are just (1-10 SU & 4-7 ATS) L/11 ROAD games coming into tonight. Minnesota is coming off a 14 pt ROAD loss to the Cavs on Wednesday, and the Timberwolves are just (1-9 SU & 5-5 ATS L/10) games coming into tonight. Minnesota is (5-1 ATS L/6) games on 1 days rest & they are (6-1 ATS L/7) HOME games vs a team with a ROAD win% of .400 or lower. Bottom line for me here--I really like the situational & motivational angles for the Timberwolves AT HOME tonight & I really think they exact some revenge tonight in this spot. Play on the Timberwolves tonight guys.
King Creole
MEM +5 vs SAN
There's no one in the NBA that's any HOTTER than the Memphis Grizzlies (7-1 SU and ATS last 8 games). They'll be taking to the division road tonight against a struggling Spurs team (1-3 SU and ATS last 4 HOME games) playing WITHOUT point Guard Tony Parker.
12-2 ATS this season: All Conference road underdogs of > 4 points playing off 2 or more SU wins in a row (GRIZZLIES)... vs any opponent playing off A DD SU win (Spur).
This is San Antonio's 5th STRAIGHT game at home.
1-6-1 ATS this season: All NBA favorites of 6 < points playing in their 5th STRAIGHT home game (Spurs).
Memphis comes in off a big non-conference win over the Detroit Pistons in which they were actually tabbed as road 'chalk'. Tonight's scheduling dynamic hasn't come up very often... but it's GREAT sign for certain dogs.
14-3 ATS since 1990: All DIVISION road dogs playing off a SU and ATS non-conference road favorite win (GRIZZLIES). And when these dogs are taking on an opponent off a SUATS win (like the Spurs), the results are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS over the last 20 years!
Tony Weston
Solid call last night as Wisconsin flirts with the outright win against Purdue, just like I said the Badgers would. And just like last night’s winner, I’m handing you another one as I’m taking the Cavaliers on the road at the Pacers.
Coming into this game the Cavs have absolutely owned the Pacers over the last few years.
Cleveland has covered in 10 of its last 12 meetings against Indiana and has covered in each of their last 2 meetings, beating the Pacers by an average of 9 points per game in those two matchups.
These two last hooked up in November, with the Cavs cruising to a double-digit victory over the Pacers, beating them 105-95 as a 3 1/2 point favorite.
Tonight, Cleveland is installed as the chalk again, as it is laying about 6 points, depending on where you’re playing this. That bodes well for the Cavs, as in this series the favorite is 20-8-2 ATS their last 30 meetings.
Also, the Cavaliers have covered in 5 of their last 6 meetings in Indiana.
Tonight, Cleveland will cash in once again.
3♦ CAVALIERS
Michael Cannon
LA Lakers at PHILADELPHIA +6'
I am now 71-55-3 with my last 129 free plays.
Take the points with the 76ers at home tonight over the Lakers.
Potential flat spot for the Lakers. Los Angeles is playing its sixth road game in nine days and they have the Celtics on deck in Boston in a nationally televised game.
Everyone knows the 76ers are one of the bottom feeders in the league, including the Lakers. Kobe and company know they can basically just show up and win this game.
But Philly will bring its “A” game tonight going against the defending champs. The fact they are playing at home makes taking them at this number all the more appealing.
Los Angeles will get it done here, but don’t be surprised if it ends up being a one or two possession game.
Take the points with the 76ers as they stay within the number.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Drew Gordon
Boston at ATLANTA -4
48-29-3 roll L80 Free Plays (16-6 L22), incl. Virginia Tech outright over Virginia 76-71 Thursday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Celtics-Hawks match up.
Tough spot for the Celtics, who face a mountain of factors going against them in this one, but let's start with the most obvious - the situational factors. You see, not only did Boston just blow a huge game against Orlando last night, but they've got the Lakers on deck two days from now. If there's any spot in which the Celtics focus will be lacking, it would be in this sandwich game against a Hawks team playing phenomenal basketball at home.
Speaking of the Hawks home play, they're an outstanding 18-5 SU & 16-7 ATS in Atlanta, and we've already seen them take care of business vs Boston in this spot. Back just 3 weeks ago, the Hawks beat the Celtics 93-85 at home, covering as a 3'-point favorite. Atlanta is now 3-0 SUATS vs Boston in their L3 meetings, and there's no doubt the Hawks bring a little extra when playing this specific opponent.
Finally, critics of this play will argue that Kevin Garnett is back, and therefore the Celtics should get back to their winning ways, but I disagree. Watching Garnett play yesterday, it was clear he's still got some issues with that knee, call it rust or whatever, but he's not at 100% (not even close). Playing with no rest will do little to help that situation, so I'm expecting solid games from the Hawks frontcourt tonight. In the end, the Hawks seemingly always play the Celtics tough, and that won't change tonight, especially in a terrible situational spot for Boston.
Take Atlanta over Boston in this NBA match up.
3♦ ATLANTA
Chris Jordan
Sacramento at UTAH -9
Even without Carlos Boozer, the Jazz are going to have no problem taking care of the lowly Sacramento Kings, who have lost seven straight on the road, and have scored fewer than 87 points four times during that span. Sacramento is going to be hard-pressed to challenge the NBA’s top shooting team that is hitting at a 49 percent clip.
And that number is for the season; the 27-win Jazz have been sharp most recently, averaging 111.2 points and shooting 53 percent in their last nine games and winning eight of them. They come in after a tremendous performance, in which they shot 60.3 percent in a 106-95 win at Northwest-rival Portland on Wednesday; and get this, that was four days after shooting a season-best 61.1 percent in a 116-83 victory over New Jersey, which isn’t that much worse than Sacramento.
The Kings are in on a plethora of ATS slides, including 1-6 on the highway, 1-8 after an ATS loss, 1-8 as an underdog, 0-5 versus Western Conference foes, 0-7 after two days off and 5-17 overall. Conversely, the Jazz roll into this contest on ATS runs of 8-0 after an ATS cover, 7-0 as the installed chalk, 7-0 against Western Conference teams, 14-3 at home, 13-3 as the home favorite and 23-8 overall.
Boozer or not, the Jazz will steamroll this team tonight in the Delta Center.
1♦ JAZZ
Karl Garrett
Boston at ATLANTA -4'
G-Man has hit 12 of my last 21 comp picks.
For Friday night, I will lay the points with the rested Hawks as they entertain a Boston team that collapsed in the 4th quarter last night in their loss at Orlando.
The Hawks are 18-5 straight up at the Philips Arena this season, and they are a profitable 16-7 against the spread in those home games this year.
Atlanta has made it their mission to defeat Boston since the Celtics vanquished them in the playoffs in the 2008 season, and this year, the Hawks have been able to win and cover ALL 3 series meetings.
With Boston having a Sunday home date against the Lakers up next, this looks to be a bad scheduling spot for the C's.
Gotta lay the wood and back the Hawks.
3♦ ATLANTA
Brett Atkins
Delivered the free winner for you guys on Thursday night as Pitt got the win and cover at home over St. John's. Tonight I'm on the NBA hardwood for a comp winner on the Bulls as they visit New Orleans.
How red-hot have the Bulls been lately? These guys have won four straight and eight of 10 (7-3 ATS) and on this seven-game road trip, they have won four of six as they wrap it up tonight in New Orleans.
Chicago has beaten the Hornets three straight and six of the last eight (5-2-1 ATS). The Bulls scored a 96-85 home win as a two-point favorite back on Dec. 26 and last year they went into New Orleans and walked out with a 107-93 win as a 1 ½-point underdog.
The Hornets return home off a four-game trip (3-1 ATS), beating Golden State on Wednesday 123-110 as a 1 ½-point favorite. Chris Paul is the heart-and-soul of this team and he had 38 points on Wednesday. Tonight he’ll have a tough matchup with Derrick Rose, who is also playing well, going for 26 points, seven assists in a road win in Oklahoma City on Wednesday.
Chicago is on ATS runs of 8-0-1 against Southwest Division teams, 12-3-1 after a spread-cover and 4-0 on the road. On the other side, New Orleans is having trouble at the betting window, on ATS slides of 1-11 on Fridays, 1-4 as a favorite, 6-14 as a home favorite and 1-4 at home against teams with a losing road record.
The Bulls are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans and they’ll get inside the number tonight. Play Chicago.
3♦ CHICAGO
Jay McNeil
I rebounded with a winner Thursday on my free play, taking Pittsburgh to roll at home against St. John's. That improved my 81-day total to 43-37-1, and I've got an NBA winner locked down tonight!
The Lakers look like they're back on their game, crushing both Washington and Indiana on the road in their last two contests. And the 76ers are simply awful at home this season, going 7-15 at the Wachovia Center.
Los Angeles is averaging 113.3 points over its last four games, and not only does Kobe Bryant play his best when he returns to his hometown of Philadelpha, but Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol are averaging double-doubles in their last three and four games, respectively against the Sixers.
Philly averages just 97.7 ppg, and it can't match the Lakers' talent either in the point or on the perimeter, and Los Angeles is also a superior defensive club, as well.
The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Sixers, and the favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings between the teams. Philly is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 home games, and 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a home underdog. Take Los Angeles to win this one by double digits.
5♦ L.A. LAKERS
Charley Sutton
Bad call with Gonzaga last night as the Bulldogs couldn’t take care of business and get more of a challenge than expected.
That’s fine because I’m past that and moving on to tonight where I’m taking the Heat on the road at the Pistons.
Coming into this game the Heat have absolutely owned the Pistons.
Miami is riding a 3-game SU winning streak against Detroit and has covered in 6 of their last 7 meetings, including 4 straight covers.
Going back a little further, the Heat have gone 15-5-1 ATS their last 21 meetings and are riding a 4-0-1 ATS run their last 5 in Detroit.
Keep in mind, too, in this series the road team is 6-2-1 ATS their last 9 meetings.
Tonight, the Heat will continue that run and cash in again.
3 ♦ HEAT