DAVE COKIN
WARRIORS AT BLAZERS
PLAY: WARRIORS -9.5
I guess I’m a pretty firm believer in the old axiom about if something isn’t broken, don’t try to fix it. And so it goes with the Golden State Warriors.
There’s no reason to break down anything here as far as the matchup goes. Portland’s only chance is if Golden State has a bad night. Like anything else, that’s a possibility. But based on the situation, it’s not a probability.
The Warriors have been utterly ridiculous for the last two seasons when they’re playing with what can be called extra rest. Their numbers last season on two or more days rest were insane. Golden State is pretty much at it again this year. When that fresh, the Warriors are 9-0 outright and in spite of there never being a bargain price on a team this popular with the bettors, they’re also 6-2-1 vs. the spread in this scenario. That’s pretty much in line with what they did in this scheduling situation for all of last season.
There’s no question in my mind that the Blazers will be fired up for tonight’s game, and their fans will no doubt be at fever pitch. But the talent disparity here is obviously substantial, and with the Warriors in their fresh legs scheduling setup, there’s only one thing for me to do. I’ve visited this well several times over the past couple of campaigns and I’ll do so again tonight. Warriors minus the points.
Sleepyj
Indiana -2
A pure fade of the Pelicans here...We had them the other night in a game they lost to the Mavs...Upon further review of watching the entire game..I've come to the conclusion that they stink on defense...The Pelicans can score, but the defensive effort is just plain bad...If the Pelicans struggle to shoot high % shots in this game, they will lose...I have faith in the Pacers here tonight...Indiana is a solid team and Paul George might be the best player on the floor tonight....Pacers are in the middle of a 4 game road trip with this one being the 3rd of 4 games...They have sputtered a bit in the last two weeks and this is one game i think they can grab...Indiana right now has the league's 6th ranked defense and that alone will cause issues for the Pelicans...I don;t trust the Pelicans on defense and at home this team is nothing scary...I think the Pelicans at some point can put a good winning streak together, but right now they look horrible..I'll fade the pelicans and ride with the Pacers in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
Raptors vs. Wizards
Play: Over 201½
Look for an up tempo game here between the Raptors and Wizards. there are solid totals angles and a simulation model that shows the game going over the total. There is also a solid database system that plays over for home teams like Washington that covered the spread by 1-3 points as a home dog of 5 or more last out and scored 110+ points. Look for this one to play over the total.
Marc Lawrence
Magic vs. Nets
Play: Nets +5
Edges - Nets: 17-7 ATS home off BB SUATS losses, the last at home by double-digits; and 5-2 ATS with same season loss revenge this year. Magic: 3-9 SU last twelve games in this series. With Orlando off a quintuple revenger with Indiana and an 11-time revenge up next with Washington, we recommend a 1* play on Brooklyn.
Jim Feist
Heat vs. Suns
Play: Suns +5
A tough spot for the road favorite, with Miami 3,000 miles from home. The Heat are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing on one days rest. Miami had a home game last time out and lost 98-90 to the Knicks, part of a 3-3 run. Phoenix is home again and the Suns coaches and players can't hide their relief at ending 9-game losing streak the last game, 99-93. Coach Jeff Hornacek finally got his 100th win for the Phoenix Suns. Charlotte was packing the paint and allowing the threes and the Suns just kept taking them. Look for another strong effort from the home dog with the pressure of the losing skid off.
Scott Spreitzer
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder -13½
Tough spot for the Lakers. Los Angeles returns home after nearly coming all the way back from a huge deficit at Sacramento last night, trailing by 27 points at one point of the third quarter. D'Angelo Russell nailed 11 of 16 shots, scoring 27 points. But Russell suffered an ankle injury and is listed as questionable. Even if he plays, it's reported he'll be less than 100% and with five players seeing 30 minutes or more last night, this shallow roster could be in trouble against OKC...again. The Thunder average nearly 109 ppg and they're third in the league in FG percentage. LAL ranks 30th in FG percentage allowed and have been absolutely owned by OKC in the last four meetings. The Thunder beat the Lakers twice in December, winning by margins of 40 and 35 points. OKC will look to make it five straight covers over L.A., while the Lakers enter on a 7-17 ATS slide against teams with a winning record.
Mike Lundin
New York vs. San Antonio
Play: Over 194.5
The New York Knicks are off three consecutive wins while averaging 105.3 points on 50.8 percent shooting as they've upset Atlanta x 2 and Miami. The over is 9-2 in Knicks last 11 games following a ATS win and 9-3-1 in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and Robin Lopez is averaging 14.7 points on 20-of-33 shooting during the winning streak. The Spurs have averaged a fantastic 122.3 points per game over their last three, but also given up 98+ points in each of those contests. The over is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 home games, 4-1 in the last five meetings overall and 4-0 in the last four matchups in San Antonio. This should be another high-scoring encounter considering how effective both teams are on the ball at the moment.
TEDDY COVERS
Heat -5
It’s not hard to make a case for betting against the Phoenix Suns these days. My power ratings have seen the Suns steadily dropping for the better part of the last month, from ‘mediocre’ to ‘bad’ to ‘bottom feeder’. Here in the second week of January, I’ve got the Suns priced in the same range as Philadelphia and LA – clearly the two weakest teams in the NBA – below the likes of other weaklings like Denver, Minnesota and Brooklyn.
The chemistry problems in Phoenix have been on full display for weeks. Head coach Jeff Hornacek saved his job only by dumping several of his top assistants. Quote after quote coming out of the Suns locker room speaks of a team that doesn’t like each other very much and isn’t in position to turn things around anytime soon.
The Suns snapped a nine game losing streak on Wednesday with a 111-102 win over Charlotte. On the heels of two truly dismal showings – allowing 83 second half points in a blowout loss to the Kings, followed by scoring only 22 points in the first half of a blowout loss to the Lakers. It’s surely worth noting that the Hornets were playing extremely shorthanded in Wednesday’s loss. And it’s also worth noting that there was a fair bit of randomness in that result, as the Suns connected on 19-33 from three point range, with six different players connecting more than one from downtown.
The Suns were still outrebounded in that game, a consistent problem for them all season. They still didn’t get to the free throw line, taking only 13 foul shots, another consistent problem for a team that feels more comfortable shooting perimeter jumpers than driving the lane for better shots since star point guard Eric Bledsoe suffered his season ending injury. They still didn’t force turnovers defensively or keep their opponent from getting good looks at the basket. The Suns streak-snapping victory was nothing more than ‘one of those nights’ where three pointers were falling in bunches – nothing even resembling a ‘buy’ sign.
Now the Suns have to come up with a second consecutive good game to beat Miami, with Goran Dragic’s return to Phoenix – where he left under rather contentious circumstances at the trading deadline last year -- providing ample motivation for the road favorite. That’s not the only extra motivation for Miami here.
They had won three straight and nine of their last 13 before a dismal game against the Knicks on Wednesday, a game in which New York hit 56% from the floor, the highest shooting percentage for any Heat opponent all year. Chris Bosh, following the game: "We're not good enough to just come in and show up. We really have to get to our identity, play the way we're supposed to play. You give up 50-plus percent, good things are not gonna happen.... We've gotta get stops, that's what it's about.”
There’s no comparison between these two teams. Miami is arguably the #2 team in the East, behind Cleveland. The Suns are arguably the #14 team in the West, ahead of only the Lakers. The Heat are hungry, coming off a loss, the Suns ‘fat and happy, off a skid snapping win. Very reasonable price to lay here.
ARI ATARI
Pacers vs. Pelicans
Play: Pacers -2
The Pelicans are a disappointment this season so far while the Pacers have been effective with roster rotations as they buy into a small-ball approach to winning games. Indiana is the better team and deserve a look as they come in winners of 2 out of 3 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a day's rest. The Pelicans are averaging 101.4 points and allowing 106.2 while Indiana averages 102.2 points and allows only 98.4 points on defense. This is not a slam dunk play like the 2 premium picks I released to all SportsAtari subscribers but it's the right play if you're looking for a small wager. Otherwise we've got BIGGER fish to fry tonight.
JIMMY BOYD
Pelicans +2
The betting public is going to be all over the Pacers in this matchup, as Indiana comes in off an easy 95-86 win and cover as a 3.5-point favorite, while the Pelicans just lost at home 91-100 as a 8-point favorite. New Orleans is a better team than their record would indicate because of injuries and I look for them to come out as inspired as they have all season tonight.
The Pacers haven't exactly been playing well of late. Indiana is just 4-6 in their last 10 games and their road win over the Magic was just their second win in their last 9 road games. Indiana's defense hasn't been great on the road, as they are allowing 100.3 ppg. That figures to be a problem against a Pelicans offense that averages a solid 106.4 ppg at home.
Pelicans are 22-11 ATS in their last 33 when they come in having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6, 29-15 ATS in their last 44 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Indiana on the other hand is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a losing record and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 against the Western Conference.
BRANDON LEE
Heat / Suns Under 198
Miami is a team that wants to slow down the pace and beat you with their defense and an efficient offense, so even when they go up against a bad defensive team like the Suns, we can expect a low-scoring game. Phoenix has scored 100+ in 3 of their last 4, but also had just 77 against the Lakers a couple games back. The Suns offensive isn't as strong with Bledsoe sidelined and that's going to show up here against a very good Miami defense. UNDER is 30-15 in Phoenix's last 45 games after playing a home game where both teams scored 100+ points.
Larry Ness
Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans
Prediction: Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers have allowed an average of 90.3 PPG on 37.8 percent shooting in their last three games with opponents connecting at only 19.2 percent from three-point range. The Pacers held Orlando to a 6-of-31 performance from beyond the arc in a 95-86 victory Wednesday, the halfway point on the team's four-game trip. Indiana is allowing a league-low 25.0 percent on three-pointers in n 10 games since Dec 19, which can hardly be explained away by just poor shooting by its opponents. "We're focusing on (defense) a little bit more," coach Frank Vogel said. "We're playing big a little bit more so we've got some size out there. We're also continuing to score the ball too so it's coming around."
The Pelicans have dropped back-to-back home games for the first time since an 0-3 start after a 100-91 loss to Dallas on Wednesday. They shot 37.0 percent, including a 7-for-30 mark from three-point range, against a team that was resting starters Dirk Nowitzki, Wesley Matthews, Zaza Pachulia and Deron Williams. It?s difficult to explain just how poorly 11-23 New Orleans has played this season. "I don't really know, to be honest with you. I wish I had answers. I don't have answers, but we're going to come up with answers," head coach Alvin Gentry said. "It's not fair to the fans. It's not fair to anybody for us to come out and have that kind of effort. It really isn't. And when I say 'us,' I mean all of us: coaches, players, everybody. It's just not good. I'm really disappointed in the way we approached the game."
Expectations were high after New Orleans won 45 games last season and made the playoffs, so the stunning collapse has been bothersome to the players as well as Gentry. "It's frustrating for sure, but we're going to figure it out," standout power forward Anthony Davis told reporters. "I know I sound like a broken record, but it's what has to happen. It should be fun trying to get out of this. We've got to make sure we stay positive." Davis did his part against the Mavericks with 26 points, 12 rebounds, seven assists and three blocked shots and has 11 double-doubles in the past 13 games.
That said, why get involved with the Pelicans here? The Pacers have won each of their past four visits to New Orleans, as well as their last three meetings (anywhere) with the Pelicans by a combined 42 points while limiting New Orleans to an average of 86.3 PPG. Take the road team.
SPORTS WAGERS
Columbus +130 over CAROLINA
OT included. We’ve been sweet on the Hurricanes all season because they’ve been underpriced almost all season but as the favorite in this price range, we’re quick to fade them. The ‘Canes return home from a brief two-game trip to the Canadian West Coast. Whether it’s two, three or four games to that region, it’s always a difficult and tiring trip. The Hurricanes scored two goals combined on said trip against two weak defensive squads (Edmonton and Vancouver) and they have now scored two goals or fewer in eight of their past 10 games. We also want to point out the loss of Hurricanes forward, Phil Di Giuseppe, a loss that nobody really notices or even knows about because so few watch this team. Di Giuseppe was playing on a line with Victor Rask and Joel Skinner and that trio were tearing it up by scoring goals and wreaking havoc in the offensive end. Di Giuseppe had eight points in 14 games before his injury on Jan 2 while Rask and Skinner combined for 19 points in those 14 games that the three were together. Now Skinner is forced to play with Riley Nash and Chris Terry. Look up healthy scratch in the dictionary and you might see Chris Terry’s picture. The loss of this one key member on an offensively challenged team changes the dynamics completely. And if that isn’t enough, Cam Ward is far more capable of a poor game than he is of a good one.
The Jackets loss of Ryan Johansen may prevent some from playing them here but it won’t prevent us. The arrival of Seth Jones compensates for the loss because the Jackets weakness was on defense. We’re not quite sure who Jones will be paired with but when you add 20-25 minutes of ice time with an outstanding defenseman that can move the puck out quickly and efficiently, play on the power-play with a wicked shot and add offense, it changes everything to the good. Johansen was not happy and/or underachieving in Columbus while Jones was playing in the shadows of at least two other defensemen in Nashville. That all changes for Jones, as he is now “The Man” in Columbus. At the very least, Jones will inject some energy and spirit to a team that needs it. Columbus has scored 13 goals over its past three games against Dallas, Washington and Minnesota and they take a step down in class here. Definite overlay.
Buffalo +200 over CHICAGO
OT included. If you watched the Blackhawks dominate the Penguins on Tuesday then you may find it difficult to pull the trigger here. The Blackhawks looked very sharp, especially in the first period and again in the last 10 minutes of the third to close it out. Outstanding rookie, Artemi Panarin has stepped right into an important role by playing alongside Patrick Kane and he’s thriving. The Blackhawks are healthy and they’ve won five in a row while outscoring the opposition 20-11 over that span. Maybe Chicago comes out and does a number on the Sabres, which is certainly a possibility, however, there’s also a chance that the Blackhawks aren’t so sharp after back-to-back victories over Pittsburgh. There is no urgency whatsoever for this host to keep its foot on the pedal, especially against a team that they have not lost to since 2009 and have not lost to in this building since 2007.
Buffalo is playing much better than its five-game losing streak suggests. Those five defeats occurred against Washington twice, the Islanders, Detroit and finally the red-hot Panthers this past Tuesday. The Sabres outshot every team over that span with the exception of one of the two games against the Caps. The Sabres held Florida, Detroit and Washington to 27, 23 and 26 shots on net. They outshot the Islanders 43-33 and lost 2-1. They took two minor penalties or less in four of those five games and rank second in the NHL in the fewest minor penalties taken. The Sabres have outshot their opponents in 21 of their first 40 games this season after outshooting their opponent just 10 times all of last season. The Sabres have a very decent power-play and their puck possession numbers are progressing nicely too. Defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen is ranked in the top 15 among NHL defensemen in goals, assists, points, shots, time on ice per game and multi-point games while Ryan O’Reilly, Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart are all having outstanding seasons too. The Sabres are not going to make the playoffs this year but they’re not going to be an easy out either. Buffalo works too hard to go on extended losing streaks and while they may not break it here, we trust they have a legit shot to win, especially if the Blackhawks are even slightly sleeping on this intruder. At this price, we’ll take out chances.
Nashville/COLORADO Over 5½
OT included. The Predators filled a big need up the middle when they picked up Ryan Johansen from the Jackets in exchange for Seth Jones just a couple of days ago. That will help the Preds score more but the loss of Seth Jones weakens their defense. Both strengthen our position here. All-Star Pekka Rinne in net also strengthens our position. Rinne is coming off a game in which he allowed three goals on 17 shots for a save percentage of .824. His save % in four of his last five games was .824, .844, .897 and .870. The only game Rinne’s save % was over .900 during that span was against the offensively challenged Hurricanes. Rinne has faced Colorado once this year and his save % was .880. Since November 20, a span of 20 games, Rinne has the lowest save percentage in the NHL and in 14 of those 20 games his save percentage was below .900 and well below in most of them. Pekka Rinne being named an All-Star is equivalent to Jared Boll getting voted in instead of Flip Forsberg. We’re not sure why the market thinks this stiff can still play but they do and we’ll continue to try and exploit that market flaw as often as we can. The Preds may have filled a hole up the middle but they failed to correct their biggest problem. Nashville can win a playoff series without a great center but they cannot without solid goaltending.
Nashville now figures to score more goals and they couldn’t have handpicked a better team to play for Ryan Johansen to make his Preds debut against. Colorado is a team that gives up more scoring chances than any team in the NHL (source: war-on-ice.com). The Avs are also a team that is scoring a bunch of goals recently with four goals or more in five of their past eight games. That includes four on the Blues and Kings, six on the Sharks and four on the Maple Leafs. Even against the Blackhawks, Colorado scored three times on New Year’s Eve. Furthermore, these two defensive units are putting up mega points. Nashville’s defense ranks second in the league with a combined 99 points while Colorado’s defensive unit ranks 4th with a combined 81 points. That’s 180 points of production between the two units. Lastly, Avs Coach Patrick Roy is the most liberal coach in the game when it comes to pulling the goalie should his team be stuck one, two or three goals late. If he’s stuck three goals, he’ll pull the goalie with six minutes left and if he’s stuck two, he’ll pull the goalie with four or five minutes left. What we have here is great potential for a high scoring game with a plethora of point producers and some very shaky goaltending.
Power Sports
New York vs. San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio
Much like the Warriors earlier in the year, the linesmakers simply can't make these lines for Spurs' games high enough. San Antonio owns the best point differential (+14.2 per game) in league history through 37 games! Incredibly, during a 13-1 SU stretch, ten of their victories have come by margins even greater than that!
So, it appears as if the Knicks are in major trouble here as they visit the Alamo. Yes, they treated me well two nights ago w/ a 98-90 upset of Miami (were 8-pt road underdogs), but this is a far more difficult opponent. San Antonio hasn't dropped a single home game all year and because they're holding visting teams to just 88.8 points per game, their average margin of victory here is nearly 17 PPG!
The Spurs also own the league's best ATS record at 26-11 and that includes a non-cover in the only game they were an underdog (season opener at OKC). Against teams w/ losing records (Knicks are still only 18-19 SU), they are 16-3 against the spread. They are 16-5 ATS at home as well. Having already beaten the Knicks by 10 at MSG earlier this year, it stands to reason the final margin of victory will be even greater here.
SPS Investors
Utah vs. Colorado
Pick:Colorado
After a disappointing 2015 season, Colorado has been one of the surprise teams in the early going this year and a big reason for that has been due to the style of basketball that they have adopted. They have become extremely physical and are a playing a very fundamentally sound style of game that focuses on battling inside and cleaning up on the glass. Due to their change in style, the Buffaloes have managed to win the battle of the boards in eight of their last ten games and tied in one of the others. They currently rank 6th in the country in rebounding, grabbing an average of 43.7 boards per game! Their work on the glass has paid dividends in allowing for second chance scoring opportunities and it shows as the Buffs rank 52nd in the country in scoring average pouring in an average of 80.1 points per game.
On the season, Colorado is shooting 45 percent from the floor as a team and nearly 40% from 3 point range! They are also a team that manages to get inside to create contact which sends them to the line an above average amount of time. They average 25.1 trips to the line per contest and hit 72.9 percent of their attempts which can be extremely important in a closely contested matchup as free throws can often be the deciding facotr in a contest.
The Utah Utes have been steady this season opening up the year 11-4 overall, but they have struggled on the road going 0-3 on the season. Things likely won't get easier for the Utes in this contest tonight as Colorado owns a perfect 8-0 record at home this season.
We do find it somewhat interesting that the oddsmakers have listed the Buffaloes as such short favorites in this contest against a team that has shown their struggles on the road. There is no question that they are expecting Utah to put up a strong fight to avoid starting conference play 0-3 and they certainly may. At the end of the day however, Colorado owns too much of a home court advantage to drop this game, especially having quite a bit of momentum after knocking off a solid Stanford team on the road. Utah will make this a closely competitive contest, but Colorado will pull out the win with free throws at the end.
Other notable facts to consider:
• Utah is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
• Colorado is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.