Dr. Bob
Opinion – AKRON (-10) over Western Michigan
Akron has been a tough place to play for the Zips’ MAC opponents over the years, as evidenced by their 61-34 ATS mark in conference home games under coach Keith Dambrot. That record is an even better 54-20 ATS when favored from 3½ to 14½ points. Based on this season’s scores the predicted margin of this game would be Akron by 13.2 points but it’s highly unlikely that Akron will continue to allow just 26% 3-point shooting or have their opponents make just 64.8% of their free throws. After adjusting for variance I get 10 points as the fair line and the line has come down from -12 to my variance adjusted number. I’m not going to make this game a Best Bet but the line is fair and that coaching trend is pretty impressive and consistent (Dambrot has had a winning ATS record in conference home games in all of his 11 seasons). I’ll lean with Akron at -10 or less.
Opinion – Indiana (-2) over NEW ORLEANS
New Orleans continues to disappoint, with the last installment being a 9 point home loss to a Dallas squad that played double-overtime the previous night and were resting 3 starters. The Pacers have been a bit inconsistent but most of their bad performances have been on the 2nd of back-to-back nights. Indiana is just 2-5 ATS when unrested this season but they’re 19-8 ATS if they’ve had at least 1 night off between games, including 16-1 ATS against fellow Eastern Conference teams. My ratings favor Indiana by 4 points and I’ll lean with the Pacers even though the Pelicans tend to play better off a loss.