SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Boston (25-8, 15-18 ATS) at Atlanta (22-12, 23-11 ATS)
After a three-game losing streak to close out 2009, the Celtics will try to make it three straight wins when they travel to Philips Arena in Atlanta for an Eastern Conference showdown with the Hawks.
Boston scored a 112-106 overtime victory in Miami on Wednesday, cashing as a one-point favorite. The Celtics got at least 16 points from each of their five starters, with point guard Rajon Rondo returning from injury and leading the way with 25 points and eight assists, while center Kendrick Perkins added 20 points and 10 rebounds. Boston’s defense has taken a hit with star Kevin Garnett out of the lineup, as it has given up 102.6 points a game and 47 percent shooting over the last five games.
Atlanta snapped a season-long four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS) on Wednesday with a much-needed 119-89 home victory rout of lowly New Jersey, cashing as a 14-point favorite. The Hawks, who shot 57.3 percent from the floor, got 29 points from reserve Jamal Crawford with guard Joe Johnson chipping 20 points against the lowly Nets. They average 109.9 points a game in front of the home crowd, shooting 48.4 percent from the floor where they are 12-5 ATS this season.
The Hawks snapped a five-game losing streak to the Celtics on Nov. 13 when they marched into Boston and scored a 97-86 victory as nine-point underdogs. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 series clashes and Atlanta is 4-1 ATS the last five times the Celtics have come calling at Philips Arena.
Boston is on ATS slides of 1-4 after a spread cover and 1-4 after a day off, but the Celtics are on ATS hot streaks of 38-16-1 as an underdog, 4-1 against the Southeast Division and 5-0-1 as ‘dogs of up to 4 ½ points. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in its last four after a spread-cover, but otherwise on positive ATS runs of 23-11-1 overall, 29-14-1 as a favorite, 5-2 at home and 8-2 against Atlantic Division squads.
The Celtics have topped the total in eight of 12 Friday games, but they are on “under” streaks of 11-5 after a spread-cover, 9-3 against Southeast Division teams and 3-1-1 after a straight-up win. Atlanta is on a plethora of “over” runs, including 12-3 at home, 14-5 after a spread-cover, 5-2 overall and 7-3 after getting a day off. Finally, in this series, the “over” is 7-3 in the last 10 clashes and 4-1 in the last five played in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Dallas (24-11, 17-18 ATS) at San Antonio (21-12, 18-14-1 ATS)
The red-hot Spurs welcome in-state rival Dallas to the AT&T Center in San Antonio for a matchup between the top two teams in the Southwest Division.
The Mavericks have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games (2-3 ATS), scoring a 98-93 home victory over Detroit on Tuesday, coming up short as 8 ½-point favorites. Dallas is 12-6 ATS on the highway this season and the Mavs just split a four-game road trip (SU and ATS) to close out 2009 and open 2010.
San Antonio has won six of its last seven overall (SU and ATS), including three straight at home (3-0 ATS) capped by Wednesday’s 112-92 win over Detroit, easily cashing as a 10-point chalk. The Spurs are 12-7 ATS at home and they average 105 points a game and shoot 49.6 percent from the floor in front of the home crowd.
Dallas knocked the Spurs out of the Western Conference playoffs last season (4-1 SU and ATS) but the two have split the first two meetings of this season. San Antonio scored a 92-83 home win back on Nov. 11 as a 1 ½-point home ‘dog with Dallas getting a 99-94 home win seven days later as a three-point chalk. Dallas is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 trips to San Antonio even though the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six series clashes.
The Mavs are 0-5 ATS in their last five against Southwest Division rivals and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall, but they are on ATS spurts of 10-4 on the road and 43-21-1 when they get two days off. The Spurs are on positive ATS streaks of 4-1 at home, 6-1 overall and 4-1 after getting a day off, but they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six against winning teams.
Dallas has stayed below the posted total in eight of 11 against Western Conference teams and four of five on the road, but it is on “over” streaks of 6-1 as a ‘dog and 4-1 on Fridays. San Antonio is on “over” runs of 19-9 as a home favorite, 7-3 after getting a day off and 6-2 against Western Conference teams, and on “under” streaks of 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-0 at home against teams with winning road records.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
Cleveland (28-9, 19-18 ATS) at Denver (22-13, 16-19 ATS)
The streaking Cavaliers open a five-game West Coast road trip with a stop at the Pepsi Center in Denver taking on a Nuggets squad that has dropped six of nine overall.
Cleveland has won eight of its last nine (6-3 ATS), including Wednesday’s easy 121-98 home victory over the Wizards as a 13½-point favorite. LeBron James led the surge with 23 points, eight assists and seven rebounds while Shaquille O’Neal added 17 points and six boards. The Cavaliers are 13-7 ATS away from home and lately they have cranked up the defense, allowing just 92 points a game over the last five.
Denver edged Golden State 123-122 on Wednesday, but came up short as a 5 ½-point favorite, falling to 2-7 ATS in its last nine. The low point during this streak came on Sunday when the Nuggets lost 108-105 at home to the lowly Sixers as four-point favorites. Denver has been lousy on the defensive end in its last five contests, giving up 107 ppg and allowing the opposition to shoot 50.5 percent from the floor.
The Cavaliers swept the season series from Denver a year ago (2-0 ATS), including a 105-88 route at the Pepsi Center, prevailing as two-point underdogs. This series has been swept in each of the last three seasons, with the Nuggets getting the SU and ATS sweeps in 2008 and 2007.
Cleveland is on a plethora of ATS runs, including 4-1 on the road, 4-0 against Western Conference teams, 18-8 on Fridays and 11-4 against Northwest Division squads. Denver is on several ATS slides, including 1-5 overall, 2-5 at home, 2-8 against Central Division teams and 3-7 after a non-cover.
For the Cavs, the “under” is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-1-1 on Fridays, 5-1 after a straight-up win and 40-17 after a spread-cover. The Nuggets have topped the total in four of five at home, four straight against Eastern Conference teams and 18 of 26 against Central Division teams, but they have stayed “under” in 13 of 19 after getting two days off. In this rivalry, the “under” has been the play in five of the last eight matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(24) Washington (10-3, 2-9 ATS) at Arizona State (10-5, 3-8 ATS)
Following consecutive conference losses in Southern California last weekend, the Sun Devils return home looking to knock off 24th-ranked Washington in a Pac-10 contest.
The Huskies opened the conference season on New Year’s Eve with a 76-70 home victory over Oregon State – failing to cover as a 13-point favorite – but followed that with Saturday’s 90-79 upset loss to Oregon as an 11½-point home chalk. Washington, which has cashed just once in its last nine lined contests, has one of the top offenses in the nation (82.5 points per game), but it has yielded 70 points or more in six of its last eight games and eight of its 13 contests this year.
Arizona State tipped off Pac-10 play with losses at UCLA on Dec. 31 (72-70 as a 1 ½-point road favorite) and at USC on Saturday (47-37 as a 2½-point road underdog). In the USC defeat, the Sun Devils made just 11 field goals in 45 tries (24.4 percent), and despite giving up a season-low 47 points, they lost by double digits as they were held to their lowest point total since a 60-37 loss to Minnesota in November 1991.
These teams squared off three times last year, with Washington sweeping the regular-season series (84-71 as a five-point road underdog; 73-70 in overtime as a 3½-point home favorite) and Arizona State getting revenge in the conference tournament, rolling 75-65 as a one-point chalk. The Huskies are still 13-2 SU in the last 15 meetings (9-6 ATS), and they’ve cashed in each of their last six trips to Tempe. In fact, the visitor has covered in 11 of the last 12 series clashes.
Washington is in pointspread ruts of 1-8 overall, 1-8 against winning teams, 1-5-1 in Pac-10 play and 0-4 on Friday, but the Huskies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after a SU defeat. Arizona State is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall, but otherwise the Sun Devils are on pointspread surges of 5-0 on Friday and 15-5 after a non-cover.
The high-scoring Huskies are on “over” stretches of 23-6 overall, 7-2 on the highway, 23-4 in Pac-10 play, 7-1 on Friday, 4-0 versus winning teams and 10-4 after a non-cover. The over is also 5-2 in ASU’s last seven conference games and 4-0 in its last four against winning teams, but the Sun Devils are 8-2 “under” in their last 10 overall, and their last seven home games have stayed low.
Finally, the last four meetings in this series have cleared the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON and OVER
Marc Lawrence
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
When the Kings meet the Warriors at Golden State this evening they will do so knowing that Sacramento is 25-11 ATS in this series when playing off a loss, including 12-5 ATS on this court. With the Warriors off an upset win, and now dressing up as chalk, look for Golden State to dip to 3-12-1 ATS as a division favorite here tonight. Grab the points with the Kings.
Play on: Sacramento
VEGAS EXPERTS
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks
For the Atlanta Hawks, this is yet another golden opportunity to prove they belong among the NBA elite. They beat the Celtics in Boston earlier in the season, 97-86, while taking nine points and that was when Boston was healthier and playing better. The Celtics are just 6-4 SU vs. teams with a winning record this season. Atlanta is 23-11 ATS on the season, including 12-5 ATS at home.
Play on: Atlanta
Frank Jordan
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Boston Celtics +2.5
Boston was off to a hot start 19-4, but since have come back to earth some with a 6-4 record in their last 10 games due to injury. Those 8 losses are still fewest in the Eastern Conference and are still in first place by 8 games. Boston is continuing their road trip in Atlanta after a 112-106 overtime win in Miami on Wednesday which was their first road win after dropping three in a row to close out 2009. Atlanta is 10 games over .500 overall with a 22-12 record and just 1.5 games back of Orlando for first place in the Southeastern division. Atlanta is a good team at home with a 13-4 record there, but have lost two of their last three home games. In this rematch of playoff battles of years past look for the Celtics to once again pick up a road victory as the trio of Allen, Pierce and Rondo continue to shoulder the load with Garnett on the shelf. Play Boston
Jim Feist
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Sacramento Kings +3½
This is the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Golden State Warriors, and their first game home following a 4-game road trip. In fact, they've played 11 of the last 14 games on the road. A young, athletic Sacramento team comes to town, one that is playing only its second road game in the last two weeks. These teams have met once and the Kings blindsided the Warriors, winning by 13 points as a +3 dog. They can surprise the road weary Warriors again. Play the Kings
JR TIPS
MIAMI vs. PHOENIX
The Miami Heat start the opener of a six-game, nine-day Western Conference road trip tonight against the Phoenix Suns after losing to Boston in overtime 112-106 bringing them their fourth loss in five games even though Dwayne Wade finished with a season-high 44 points. The Phoenix Suns are 14-3 at home and looking for their third straight victory overall facing a Miami team only averaging 92.8 points in their last five games overall, reaching 100 points only once. Miami should get a boost from point guard Rafer Alston who was signed Thursday for the remainder of the season. Alston averaged 9.7 and 3.9 assists in 27 games for New Jersey this season after the 33-year-old Alston started all 23 playoff games with Orlando last season during their NBA finals run. Miami lost 104-96 at home to the Suns on Nov. 3rd but have won two in a row at US Airways Center with Wade averaging 33.0 points on 57.1 percent shooting in his last four games against the Suns. The Suns have won five of seven after blowing a 16-point lead and rallying from the same deficit to beat Houston 118-110 at home Wednesday as Steve Nash had 26 points with 12 assists and Amare Stoudemire added 25 points with 11 rebounds. Phoenix is the NBA's highest-scoring club with 110.1 points per game; Steve Nash has averaged 25.0 points and 12.3 assists in his last three games and has 59 points and 18 assists in his last two against Miami. As you can tell by the stats, when these two teams meet the guards control the games and dominate the scoring. In their last game in Miami, Nash was the team leader with 30 points and with the addition of Rafer Alston tonight Miami will push the ball creating easy buckers for Dwayne Wade and company which will fall right into the pace Phoenix likes to play. This game will be close as both teams will get easy transition points all night and the team with the last run will get the win.
TAKE OVER 213.5
Karl Garrett
Dallas +4' at SAN ANTONIO
Texas showdown on Friday night, and my money is on the Mavericks plus the points at San Anotnio.
No doubt the Spurs have been playing a better brand of ball these days, as San Antonio has reeled off wins in 12 of their last 15, but the Mavericks have been a tough matchup for the host Spurs, as Dallas has been able to cover in 11 of their last 15 visits to Alamo-Town.
Dallas has gone 12-6 both straight up, and against the spread on the road this season, and they have been idle since Tuesday night, so they should be well rested, and ready to rumble.
With the Mavs having erased the Spurs in 5 games in last April's postseason, the G-Man feels Dallas has the confidence to go toe-to-toe with their Texas rival.
Take the Mavericks plus the points.
2♦ DALLAS
Bobby Maxwell
Sacramento at GOLDEN STATE -1'
Improved to 44-19 with FREE plays, including 21-5 over the last 26 days, when the Knicks got the win and cover on Thursday at home over the Bobcats. Tongiht I've got another NBA comp winner for you as I go with the Warriors at home over the Kings.
Golden State is playing some pretty good basketball lately and you can expect them to light up the scoreboard tonight at home against Sacramento.
The Warriors have cashed in six of their last seven games and come in to this one having cashed in two straight, including a 123-122 heartbreaking loss in Denver as 5 ½-point ‘dogs and a 107-101 Wednesday win in Minnesota as 2 ½-point underdogs.
Golden State is starting to play together as a team and getting some great play from Corey Maggette and guard Monta Ellis. Maggette was a star in this league a few years ago with the Clippers but he hasn’t done much since. The guards are Ellis and rookie Stephen Curry, who looks like he’ll be a star in this league. He scored 16 and had four assists against the T-Wolves on Wednesday.
Sacramento is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall and they are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 as a ‘dog of up to 4 ½-points. On the opposite side, Golden State is on ATS runs that include 5-2 at home, 5-1 against the Western Conference and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days.
I like the way the Warriors are playing, lay the chalk and go with Golden State tonight.
5♦ GOLDEN STATE
Dominic Fazzini
Washington +4 at ARIZONA STATE
I picked up another victory Thursday with my complimentary selection, taking the Knicks to cover at home against Charlotte. That improved my record to 54-34-1 over the past 89 days, including a run of 37-21-1 over the last 59!
Now I've got a college basketball winner for you today, taking underdog Washington to cover at Arizona State.
The Huskies received a wake-up call Saturday with a 90-79 home loss to Oregon. The defending Pac-10 champs are 1-1 in conference play after going 9-2 to start the season, and the players seem determined to re-establish themselves as the team to beat in the Pac-10.
Washington has had success plenty of success against the Sun Devils, winning both regular-season meetings last season and six straight games in Tempe, going 6-0 ATS. The Huskies are going to be especially motivated in this game since ASU beat them 75-65 in the Pac-10 tournament last season.
Forward Quincy Pondexter leads Washington in scoring (21.3 ppg) and rebounding (8.3 per game), and is getting plenty of help on the offensive end from guard Isaiah Thomas, who is averaging 18.2 ppg. Thomas had 25 points Saturday against the Ducks, and he also scored 25 at ASU last season.
The Sun Devils are solid defensively, allowing just 55.2 ppg, but they have no player averaging more than 11.4 ppg.
The road team is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these teams, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five. Arizona State is 1-5 ATS in its six games overall, and the Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog. Take Washington to cover the points tonight.
3♦ WASHINGTON
LT Profits
Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors
The Philadelphia 76ers have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA at 10-24 overall, while the Toronto Raptors have caught fire to reach the .500 mark at 18-18.
However, we feel this has created some nice line value for an underachieving but still talented 76ers team at home here. After all, with the exception of the return of Allen Iverson, this is still the same Philadelphia starting lineup that led this team to the playoffs the last two years, and even held two series leads over the eventual Eastern Champions, the Orlando Magic, last season.
To put this line in perspective, Philadelphia was -6 the last time Toronto visited here in March, and the Sixers covered in a 115-106 victory with Thaddeus Young, Samuel Dalembert and Andre Iguodala leading the way, the same starting front court they have this season.
On the bright side, the 76ers did win three of the last four games on their recent Western road trip, including impressive wins at Denver and Portland, and they loss to Washington on Tuesday can be attributed to the normal lethargy that tames place in the fist home game after a long cross-country trip, which in this case was six games. We feel that Philadelphia will put there best foot forward tonight in their second game back, making them underrated in this spot.
Now granted, the Raptors are a hot team that has won seven of the last eight games including a road win at Orlando on Wednesday. However, Toronto is still a one-dimensional perimeter shooting team that plays no defense, and it just so happens that they have been on fire lately from the field. It is hard to maintain that kind of shooting long-term though, and this seems like as good a spit as any for a return to normalcy, as there is no value on the Raps at this number.
Even with this hot streak, Toronto is still 6-13 straight up on the road while losing by an average of -6.4 points, so look for the 76ers to break through with a much needed win here.
Pick: 76ers -1.5
JR O'Donnell
Washington U vs. Arizona State
Play: Washington U +3½
A few solid facts to back the play
Our camp is backing the Washington Huskies 10-3 (overall but just 2-10 ats) tonight as we're not sold on Arizona State(10-5 over all). Some experts are high on Asu.. NOT US. They put up 37 yes 37 in a loss to USC and also lost to a sub par UCLA (7-8 over all) squad. After tonight they will be 0-3 in the Pac-10. The key for us here is the 1-2 punch of the Huskies backcourt & huge edges on the boards and a deeper bench. We also note that the public will be busting the the undevils following that unranked team laying points to a ranked team, which has credence, but in tonight's battle for the Jr O Camp!!!
It's Ugly boys but tonight UGLY WINS!!!! Play the Huskies
Johnny Banks
Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Toronto Raptors +2
Toronto comes into this game coming off a huge win against the Magic and I look for them to carry that intensity into tonight's game against the 76ers. The 76ers have lost 6 of their last 7 home games and Toronto is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games played in Philadelphia.
SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS -½ -1.01 over NY Islanders
This wager is a go only if Rick DiPietro gets the start for the Islanders and we’ll update it as soon as that info is available but he is expected to start. DiPietro has played just five games since the beginning of last year. Even before he was injured I called this guy one of the most overrated goaltender ever. Thing is, the Islanders are forced to go with him because of a ridiculous contract that has him signed for 15 years and 67 million. That’s right, 15 years and 67M for a guy that would have this team with zero more wins this season. Besides, how do you think the players feel about this? Dwayne Roloson has been so solid in net and most of these players don’t even know DiPietro. Now he’s going to come in like his shit doesn’t stink and put a damper on this cohesive group that without saying so, would much prefer Roloson, their guy, between the pipes. If the Islanders could trade DiPietro for Hall Gill’s skates, they would. When you’re paying a guy about 5M a year, what are you going to do, sit him? Of course not and there’s one guy in this organization that is on his knees praying that DiPietro comes up huge in the near future. Funny thing is though, that even at his absolute best, DiPietro is a fraction of what Roloson is. Dallas is off two losses, they lost one of its best players in Mike Robeiro and they’ll rally here against a goaltender that may allow four before getting mercifully yanked. Play: Dallas -½ -1.01 (Risking 2.02 units).
Tampa Bay +2.02 over NEW JERSEY
The Lightning are simply too dangerous a team to pass up on as a 2-1 pooch. They’re coming off a loss in Buffalo but fell behind 3-0 before the fans arrived and they did rally to make it 3-2 and 4-3 before falling 5-3. Furthermore, they’ve played the Devils tough all year, losing all three times by a single goal with two of the games going to OT. Furthermore, the Devils will embark on a five-game trip beginning tomorrow night in Montreal and you know for sure they’ll be looking forward to that game in Montreal tomorrow. The Lightning catch the usually tough Devils at precisely the right time here and at this price, they’re most certainly worthy of a bet. Play: Tampa Bay +2.02 (Risking 2 units).
Stephen Nover
Toronto at PHILADELPHIA
Let's see if I have this right. The 76ers are 10-24 and 4-11 at home. Toronto is 18-18 and has won seven of its last eight games.Yet the oddsmaker has opened Toronto an underdog. What does that tell you?
It tells me the 76ers are the play. Looking at this matchup more closely I can see why Philly is the way to go.
The 76ers have started to play better. Allen Iverson has given them a lift and needed experience in the backcourt. Few teams can match the 76ers' front-court reserves of Elton Brand and Marreese Speights. Center Samuel Dalembert is coming off a 20-20 performance. No, not 20 fouls and 20 turnovers. That's 20 points and 20 rebounds.
Philadelphia won three of its last four during its recent six-game road trip, including beating Denver and Portland.
However, in their first home game back from the trip, the 76ers got overconfident and blew an 18-point lead on Tuesday losing to the Wizards.
Look for the 76ers to be more focused following that defeat.
Toronto is playing well. But five of the Raptors' seven wins during their 7-1 streak were against teams with a losing record with four of them coming at home. They are 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 road contests.
This is a flat spot for the Raptors. In their last two games, they upset San Antonio and then surprised Orlando on Wednesday. The Raptors didn't even practice on Thursday. They host Boston on Sunday. That's the game the Raptors are psyched up about not this road matchup.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Jamie Tursini
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Portland Trail Blazers +4
The Lakers are slumping and not playing with a whole lot of drive. P.Gasol is out and it's hurting them a bit. The Blazers are now playing well without their 2 big men, and have adjusted accordingly. Big game for them to see just how they stack up against the best. Take the points.