Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday June, 1

Marc Lawrence

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Minnesota Twins

When the Twins send Carl Pavano to the mound against the Indians in the opener of this three game A. L. Central division series in Cleveland Friday night Minnesota will do so knowing Pavano is in great KW form with 11 strikeouts and 1 walk in his last three starts. Pavano is also 3-2 away with a 3.66 ERA this season, which is in stark contrast to his 1-4 mark with a 7.57 ERA at home. Look for a big effort by Pavano against his former team here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play n Minnesota.

Frank Jordan

Miami vs. Boston
Play: Under 180.5

Boston has allowing just one score over 90 points in seven postseason games this year. Miami has played five road games thus far this postseason scoring 100+ points twice and the other three games were under 95 points scored. Look for a very low scoring chess match affair with both teams scoring in the mid to upper 80s. Play the under

Steve Merril

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: Under 9.5

Boston heads to Toronto to try and continue the momentum they gained during their series against the Tigers. The Red Sox will get their third look at Henderson Alvarez who is coming off a rough outing in Arlington against the Rangers. Alvarez is 3-4 with a 3.56 ERA in 65.2 innings pitched this season. He held the Red Sox in check back on April 9th allowing just 1 run and four hits in six innings. Last September, the righty gave up just four hits in six innings pitched against the Red Sox. Toronto's bullpen has been a mixed bag this season sporting an ERA right around 4.35. Clay Buchholz is coming off one of his best outings of the season; he gave up just 2 runs and eight hits in seven innings pitched against the Rays. He struck out six while walking only one in that game. He has allowed 3 earned runs or less in three of his last four starts. Last year, Buchholz faced Toronto twice and gave up just 4 runs and six hits in 12 innings. Buchholz has allowed 1 run or less in seven of his last nine starts against the Blue Jays. Toronto's hitters are 20 for 114 against Buchholz with JP Arencibia (0-8), Edwin Encarnacion (0-7), Travis Snider (1-17) and Rajai Davis (0-6) struggling the most. Toronto's offense is hitting .259 in their last 10 games. They are facing a Red Sox bullpen that is rapidly improving as the roles are becoming more defined. The series back in April featured two Unders in three games, and we expect another low-scoring game tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have won 16 of 23 in Divisional play averaging over 5 runs per game. In Friday games they have taken 6 of 8 so far this season. Tonight they will look to slow down a Colorado team that must be playing with balls not stored in the humidor as they have erupted for 24 runs over the past 2 games here at home. Tonight Colorado may not have it so easy. They are 5-10 vs left handed Pitchers and have dropped 14 of 22 s winning teams. Tonight they draw C. Capuano. In his starts so far this season he has a solid 2.14 era and has allowed just 3 runs in 13+ innings in his last 2 starts vs The Rockies. Colorado Counters with J. Outman who allowed 5 earned run in 4 innings in his lone start this season.

Ben Burns

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Texas Rangers

The Rangers have won six of seven, including three straight, here at Anaheim. They've outscored the Angels by a 37-19 margin in those games. Naturally, the Angels would love to beat them here and get some payback. However, I feel the Rangers should have the advantage, at least for tonight's series opener.

After getting blown out in back to back games by the Mariners, the Rangers also figure to be hungry to bounce back with a victory.

Lewis wasn't all that great last time out, although 6 K's vs. 0 walks was fairly impressive. In his previous start, which was his last road start, he allowed just one run and only four hits, through eight complete innings. He won 6-1, recording 6 K's while walking one. For the season, Lewis has a respectable 3.58 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He's got 59 K's and has walked only nine batters.

Williams' stats are also solid. They're arguably not as good as Lewis' numbers though. At 3.81, his ERA is a little higher. His 1.31 WHIP is also higher. Additionally, he's got 21 fewer strikeouts (38) and has walked twice as many batters (18.)

While Williams hasn't started vs. the Rangers, he does have a terrible 12.19 ERA and 2.52 WHIP against them out of the bullpen. Hamilton has three at bats against him and has two home runs.

Don't be surprised if the Rangers continue their recent domination here for another day. Consider Texas.

Chris Elliot

Braves @ Nationals
PICK: Over 7.5

The Braves will send highly touted Mike Minor to the mound on Friday against the Nationals. After being drafted 7th overall in the 2009 draft, many felt 2012 would be Minor's breakout year. While he has looked the part at times striking out 51 batters in 58 innings, the long ball has been his nemesis, giving up 13 on the season. Overall, Minor has struggled this year with a record of 2-4, ERA of 6.98 and WHIP of 1.47. In his last six starts he has gone 0-3 while giving up 35 runs in 31.2 innings. In 7 of his last 10 games, the total has gone “over”.

Strasburg will start for the Nationals with a season record of 5-1, ERA of 2.64 and WHIP of 1.10. 4 of his last 5 games have gone “over” the total and in his last three starts Strasburg has given up 9 runs in 14 innings. He faced the Braves once this year, in his last start on May 26. He won the game 8-4 going 5 innings and giving up 4 earned runs. Strasburg was having trouble locating his fastball in this game, walking four and giving up a 2 run shot to Dan Uggla. Strasburg is 1-2 in 3 career starts against Atlanta with the "over" hitting 2 of the 3 games.

Freddie Freeman was back in the lineup Wednesday night for the Braves after being out 4 games with a nagging eye injury and made his impact felt early and often. Freeman hit a first inning home run 400 plus feet to straight away centre and followed it up with a 3 hit performance with 3 RBI. McCann had a big game as well, with 2 hits, a home run and 4 RBI. McCann had been set back with a bad flu the past 7 days. The Braves are looking to break their recent slump with these 2 big lefty bats back in the lineup. Look for these two to follow up their big games Wednesday with some key hits against Strasburg, the dominating RHP.
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The two teams have squared off 3 teams this season with the "over" hitting all 3 games. With a line of 7.5 and Minor with an ERA of 6.98, in theory, the Braves shouldn't need much against Strasburg. Look for a hard fought affair between these two NL East rivals. Both starters are young and will make mistakes, take the "over" in this one.

Jesse Schule

Chicago Cubs @ Giants
PICK: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs begin their series against the Giants in San Francisco on Friday, coming off a sweep of the Padres at home. They have a few players swinging a hot bat, as they put 24 runs on the board over their last three games.

They send Paul Maholm to the mound, looking to add another win to his record. Maholm is coming off a loss in his last start, allowing just two runs, but walking five in a 3-2 defeat at Pittsburgh. He has not dominated games this season, but Maholm has been good enough to earn a winning record of 4-3 on the season, with a 4.62 ERA.

The Giants will hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner, who had an excellent start to the season, however has cooled off as of late. Bumgarner is 0-3, with a 4.33 ERA over his last four starts, and is coming off a terrible outing. The Giants left-hander allowed five runs in six innings against the Marlins in a 5-3 loss at Miami Saturday.

The Cubs are on a roll, and they face a struggling pitcher here on Friday. This presents an excellent opportunity to capitalize on a decent sized underdog here in this one, I recommend a play on the Cubbies.

Sean Murphy

Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Diamondbacks

Consider Wednesday's 4-1 victory in San Francisco a 'galvanizing' win for the D'Backs.

It's been a tough season for Kirk Gibson's club so far, but there's more than enough time for the Snakes to make up for their slow start. They've been playing better baseball lately, winners of seven of their last 13 games overall. As bad as things have gone on the whole, they're still just 6.5 games out of the Wild Card lead in the National League.

The Padres, on the other hand, are going nowhere fast. They've lost six in a row and nine of their last 10, and are likely years away from a return to the postseason. Despite getting an offensive boost with the return of Carlos Quentin from the D.L. in Chicago, they were still swept by the lowly Cubs to start the week.

Arizona will hand the ball to Wade Miley on Friday night. He's been a pleasant surprise as the back-end of the Snakes rotation this season, going 6-1 with a 2.41 ERA. He enters Friday's start in fine form, having allowed only four earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 19 2/3 innings of work.

Like most National League clubs, the Padres have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, hitting a collective .219 here at home, averaging only 2.8 runs per nine innings.

San Diego will counter with a lefty of its own in Clayton Richard. The problem is, the D'Backs are one of the few N.L. teams that have actually thrived against southpaws, hitting a collective .251 while averaging 4.8 runs per nine innings.

Richard has had a tough time finding the win column, posting a 1-7 team record over his last eight outings. His numbers are average at best, and while he has pitched better, not surprisingly, here at Petco Park, he's till not an ideal candidate to help end the Padres slide.

Note that the Padres are a miserable 1-12 in Richard's last 13 starts when priced as an underdog between +110 and +150, as is the case here. Also keep in mind, the D'Backs are 16-7 in their last 23 games as a road favorite.

Jack Jones

Toronto Blue Jays -124

I'm siding with the Toronto Blue Jays at home tonight against the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of this AL East series. Toronto (27-24) has proven to be a legitimate contender in this tough division thanks to a potent line-up and improved pitching.

Henderson Alvarez has held his own thus far, going 3-4 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.279 WHIP through 10 starts this season. He has been much better than Boston's Clay Buchholz, who has posted a 7.19 ERA and 1.829 WHIP in 10 starts. Alvarez sports a 0.75 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in two career starts against Boston, allowing just 1 earned run in 12 innings.

The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 home games. Toronto is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 home meetings with the Red Sox. Bet Toronto Friday.

Jim Feist

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

Mark Buehrle has been a good pickup for Miami, but the soft throwing lefty is better suited for their new, large park as he is 2-3 on the road. Philadelphia is a homer happy park and the Phillies quietly have it going, winning 11 of 17. Phialdelphia starter Kyle Kendrick is 7-2 in his career against the Marlins and faces a Miami team that is 21st in runs scored and on-base percentage, plus 23rd in slugging. Play the Phillies.

Dave Cokin

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Miami Marlins

Props to Philly righty Kyle Kendrick for his recent surge. But the Marlins are on fire and with steady Mark Buehrle throwing, I see Miami as the right side tonight.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Miami +2 over BOSTON: Watching the end of the game on Wednesday I had pretty much made up my mind who I was taking in game tonight. I'm going with the Heat. Boston threw everything they had at Miami and out played them for good stretches of the game, but they still lost and more importantly, this aging team spent a ton of energy and they may not have enough left in the tank for this one. Rondo is the engine that makes this Boston team go and he played every minute of Game 2, so you can expect him to be a bit tired here and if he needs frequent rest periods then Boston will really struggle. Miami also had a few players that played a ton of minutes, but they are younger, so I don't expect that to bother them all that much. Miami is rolling right now and they have averaged 102.6 ppg in their last 5 games and when your a tired team it's hardest to play good defense. I don't see Boston being able to keep pace with Miami here.

SPORTS WAGERS

Boston +117 over TORONTO

Despite a 4-2 record, Clay Buchholz is having an awful season. He’s allowed an eye-opening 75 hits in 56.1 innings for a BAA of .323. Remember, Buchholz went 5-0 in May and June last year with a 2.33 ERA before missing the rest of the year with back problems. He wasn’t as good as that 5-0 run suggests but he’s certainly not as bad as his current 7.19 ERA suggests. His xERA over his last two starts was 2.85. He has a solid groundball rate of 49% and he appears to be rounding back into form. He’ll now take the hill with plenty of confidence against a group of Jays hitters that have 10 measly hits against him in 85 AB’s for a BA of .118. After a brutal start to the year, the Red Sox are now a game over .500, just one game behind the Blue Jays with recent wins against Justin Verlander, David Price and Drew Smyly among others. Henderson Alvarez is 1-3 at home with a 4.36 ERA and it’s no mystery as to why. Alvarez relies heavily on his defense, as he rarely misses a bat with just 19 K’s in 65.2 innings for one of the lowest K rates in the majors. In order to keep this strong hitting guest in check, you need to strike out people in key situations and Alvarez simply cannot. He’s a top groundballer (57%) but that’s not enough to keep us off this live pooch. Play Boston +117 (Risking 2 units).

Minnesota +133 over CLEVELAND

Quite often we talk about overachieving and underachieving pitchers that have misleading stats. Let’s switch gears a bit here and look at underachieving and overachieving clubs. The Indians have somehow managed to stay in first for a good portion of this season but their free-fall has just begun. Cleveland’s 27-23 record has to be considered the AL’s biggest hoax so far when you consider a starting rotation that consists of Josh Tomlin, Justin Masterson, Jeanmar Gómez, Ubaldo Jiminez and today’s stiff, Derek Lowe. They’ve been winning games with their bats but we’re starting to see a team batting average that was as high as .279, starting to drop off. The Tribe have scored just five runs over their past two games and that was against a weak Royals staff. They’ve also lost five of six and the aforementioned starting five plus the pen has allowed 54 runs during that stretch. Lowe has walked 18 and struck out 18 over 61 innings. Such numbers indicate that there is little chance of maintaining that 3.25 ERA. The Twins are 18-32 after a horrible start that saw them open the season with seven wins in 31 games. Since then, Minnesota is 11-8. Carl Pavano is not exactly a stud but what he brings to the table is pinpoint control and the ability to provide his team a chance to win. Two teams moving in opposite directions, both with misleading W/L records allows us to take back a pretty nice tag on the Twinkies. Play: Minnesota +133 (Risking 2 units).

St. Louis +100 over N.Y. METS

To the casual observer, Adam Wainwright's 4.45 ERA this season can be chalked up to Tommy John surgery rust. You know, "The guy has missed a full year and is just taking his time getting 'it' back, like a lot of TJS pitchers do." Actually, nothing could be farther from the truth. Ignore the ERA, as his strand percentage is extremely low at 69% and is sure to rise. What we really have here is an already elite starter that has improved his numbers in every category. Wainright has walked 17 and struck out 51 in 59 innings. His already-stellar groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split has tilted towards even more grounders and is sitting at an elite 55%. Wainwright is in the best stretch of his career and his ERA is going to get much better. There is no Tommy John residue here. Johan Santana’s strikeout rate is outstanding, as he’s whiffing one batter an inning. However, his groundball/fly-ball split is at 36%/40% and with a strand rate of 80%, his 2.75 ERA is unlikely to last. The Cardinals are 6-2 on the road against southpaws and current Cards batters have a .304 batting average, a .457 slugging percentage and a gaudy .829 OPS against Santana. Regardless of outcome, this is a wager that should not be missed. Play: St. Louis +100 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

Milwaukee Brewers -145

The Brewers starting pitcher Randy Wolf has been very effective at home in Miller Park this season and I expect another solid outing from Wolf in this game against a Pirates team that has not fared well when playing in Milwaukee. The Pirates starting pitcher Kevin Correia has pitched much better in his road start for the Bucs since signing with Pittsburgh, but even Correia has struggled at Miller Park where he has just one win in eleven career starts. Wolf is 9-3 in his career against Pittsburgh and the Pirates are just 8-46 in their last fifty four games at Milwaukee. Play on the Brewers.