Andre Gomes
Minnesota Lynx -2 & Lynx / Sun Under 164
Right now the gap between the Lynx and any other WNBA team is absurdly high and if Minnesota delivers a full 40-min effort game, then there is no change against them. In their last game, they were easily crushing Washington by taking an early 38-14 lead in the second quarter and had a 20-pts lead at the break. Then they got sloppy, lazy on both ends of the floor just to watch the Mystics perform an incredible comeback. They were lucky to be able to escape the jam, but their head coach was upset after the game:
"I think Washington understood it was a 40-minute game," Reeve said. "I thought we played well at the first half, and then for some reason we didn't understand we needed to continue to play. Certainly towards the end of the second quarter we gave Washington some life, some momentum."
This was the worst defensive game of the season for MIN (the game had an incredibly slow pace) in which they allowed an offensive rate of 116.2! Minnesota is pissed off because of their poor 2nd half and they usually are a great defensive team in "bounce back spots". Last season, after allowing their opponents to have offensive rates of more than 105, they have allowed an average of 92.6 in the following game and so it wasn't surprising that I've read this from one of their players:
"We were trying to end the game with our defense, that's what we pride ourselves on. We have crunch-time players, and at the end we made plays. We are a championship caliber team so hopefully we will show that more."
Minnesota is the best rebounding team in the league and they are ranked #2 in points in the paint allowed. This bodes well against Connecticut because the Sun are a poor jump shooting team - in 3 games they shot 12-40 behind the line, that's just 30 %! Their two best players are frontcourt players and so, we have a nice matchup between them and the best interior defense in the league.
Like Minnesota, Connecticut is undefeated to start the season and their blueprint has been their defense with 94.4, 98.2 and 95.6 defensive rates in those games! They have been the best home team in the league, but with Minnesota being so focused after their poor effort in their last game, I think that the Lynx is simply the best team and so, I'll take them in here. As I believe this will be a low scoring affair due to the spot of both teams, I'll be also taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!
Wunderdog
Minnesota at Connecticut
Pick: Under 163.5
What many feel is the prelude to the WNBA Championship round will tip-off tonight in Connecticut as the Sun host the 5-0 Minnesota Lynx. These teams have a lot of offensive weapons and both have yet to lose. However, these games are usually decided on the defensive end as both teams respect each others ability to fill it up. The emphasis then becomes greater on the defensive end of the court. Minnesota on a single day of rest has defined their defensive effort with a 13-5 mark to the UNDER in their last 18 off a day of rest. Connecticut has brought the "D" vs. good teams at 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven vs. a winning team and, overall, seven of their last nine at home have played UNDER the total. Play this one on the UNDER.
Tony Stoffo
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
The Cubs are coming into this game on a 3 game winning streak after sweeping the hapless Padres at wind aided Wrigley Field. Prior to matching up with San Diego the Cubs had lost 12 straight. Being their once again playing a competitive team tonight in San Francisco I look for the Cubs to get back on their losing ways once again in this spot. Cubs are 0-8 in their last 8 games as an underdog. Cubs are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. Giants are 8-0 in Bumgarner's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Giants are 17-4 in Bumgarners last 21 starts as a favorite.
Teddy Covers
Mariners @ White Sox
PICK: Over 7
Teddy and his clients enjoyed his second straight perfect 2-0 sweep last night, cashing 'right sides' with the Thunder Under and the Brewers vs. the Dodgers. This is nothing new or different! Teddy's on an 80% NBA hot streak in the Conference Finals; hitting 62% for the entire month of May. His baseball is making big money too; 37-23 (62%) since April. Don’t miss a single guaranteed winner tonight!
The White Sox have been Over machines at the Cell in recent weeks; 8-1 to the Over in their last nine tries at home. Robin Ventura’s lineup has been crushing opposing pitching, pounding out 64 runs in those last nine at home. Don’t expect King Felix to change the ChiSox offensive fortunes this evening. Hernandez has been getting roughed up consistently in recent weeks, 1-3 with a 5.94 ERA in his last four trips to the hill. He’s been bombed three times in his last five road starts and is winless with an ERA well over 4.00 in his last four starts on the south side of Chicago.
Seattle’s lineup came alive during their just concluded series at Texas, as the light hitting Mariners exploded for 31 runs in the final two games of the series, going Over the total by themselves in both contests. They also scored 28 runs in the final five games of their previous road trip, finding offensive production much easier away from pitcher friendly Safeco Field. Chicago starter Jake Peavy has been hammered for 13 earned runs in his last two home starts, giving up four home runs in the process. On a night where a fairly strong wind is blowing out to right, the current total of 7 looks a good notch or two too low. Take the Over.
Lenny Del Genio
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
Though the Orioles are beginning to head in the wrong direction, there is excellent value here on the co-AL East leaders, who meet the team they are tied w/ atop the division, the Tampa Bay Rays. Though Rays starter David Price is an outstanding pitcher, he's been a HUGE money burner here as a favorite of -150 or more with the team losing 10 of his 16 starts in that price range. The Orioles took two of three from the Rays earlier this year at Camden Yards and are 10-8 L18 visits to Tropicana Field overall. They are 15-9 on the road this season w/ all but one of those victories coming in the underdog role. Starter Wei-Yin Chen has been kind to us previously this season and has a 6-3 TSR in nine starts overall. Go with the dog tonight.
Tony Karpinski
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have won 8 of 9 while the Rangers pitching has been cold lately. Coming off a game where they gave up 23 runs. Colby Lewis has allowed a lot of home runs + walks this year. LAA Williams loves pitching at home and has revenge on his mind. His home ERA is almost two runs lower than his overall ERA. PREDICTION: Angels Win 6-4
Dave Price
Washington Nationals -153
Washington is worth the price with Strasburg on the hill. He's 5-1 (8-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.64 this season. The Braves' Minor is 2-4 (5-5 on the money line) with an ERA of 6.98, including 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 with an ERA of 8.04. The Braves are 0-5 in Minor's last 5 starts vs. the National League East while the Nationals are 5-0 in Strasburg's last 5 starts vs. the National League East. Also, the Nats have won 5 in a row in the series. Take Washington.
Jimmy Boyd
Arizona Diamondbacks -113
The D-backs have won 12 of their last 17 versus San Diego, and I expect their recent head-to-head dominance to continue given the edge they have on the mound.
Arizona's Wade Miley is 5-1 with an ERA of 2.27 through 6 starts this season, and the D-backs have won all 4 of his road starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 1.73. The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in Miley's last 8 starts, 8-0 in his last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite.
The Padres aren't in as good of hands with Clayton Richard, who is 2-6 with an ERA of 4.76 through 8 starts. The Padres are 3-13 in Richard's last 16 home starts, 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a home underdog and 0-7 in his last 7 Friday starts.
The Padres are a lousy 3-16 versus southpaw starters this season, hitting just .207 against them and scoring only 2.7 runs per game. Don't expect them to get much off Miley. Take the Snakes.
Jeff Alexander
Tampa Bay Rays -163
Motivated and focused after losing 3 in a row at home to the White Sox, expect the Rays to bounce back strong tonight with ace David Price on the hill. The southpaw has been lights out at home, going 3-1 with an ERA of 1.19. Price has been able to answer the call when getting the ball following a team loss. In fact, the Rays are 28-11 in his last 39 starts following a team loss in their previous game. They are also 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a favorite and 34-15 in his last 49 starts versus division foes. Take Tampa Bay.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia/ Miami Under 8.5: I know the Philly offense has been coming around of late, but the Phils don't hit lefties all that well, plus the Miami Pitching has been solid of late. The Phillies hit just .233 vs lefties at home on the year, while scoring just 3 runs per 9 vs them on their own field. Miami comes in having allowed 3 runs or less in each of their last 5 games, with all 5 games putting up 8 or less runs. Mark Buehrle has had a nice year so far with a 3.26 ERA overall and he did allow just 3 ER in 6.2 innings of work vs the Phils earlier here. Mark does have a 4.29 ERA in his last 3 starts, but with a very solid 1.05 WHIP, plus he has a nice 3.15 ERA on the road, with his 5 road starts averaging just 6.2 rpg. Kyle Kendrick has a bloated 5.23 ERA at home, but most of that damage was done out of the pen, as he has allowed just 2 ER's in each of his 2 home starts this year, while in 3 starts vs the Fish last year he allowed just 1 ER in all 3 starts. Mr. Kendrick also comes in in fine for with a 1.23 ERA and an 0.77 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Like the Phils vs lefties at home, the Marlins struggle vs righties on the road hitting just .208 and scoring 2.9 rp/9 off of them away form home. With Miami road games averaging just 6.5 rpg and Philly home games putting up just 7.5 rpg this looks like a very nice play on the Under.
3 UNIT PLAYS
LA Angels/ Texas Over 8.5: The Texas offense is hot once again and they really like going after Angels pitching as they have averaged 7.3 rpg in their last 9 games vs them, dating back to last year. Texas did struggle offensively some in their last road trip but they still have hit .289 and have scored 5.9 rpg on the road this year. Jerome Williams has pitched very well and hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in each of his last 7 starts, but a closer look shows hat he has not taken on an offense of this caliber during that stretch. Colby Lewis has struggled of late with a 5.23 ERA in his last 5 starts and a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts on the road. His starts this year have averaged 10 rpg, while 5 of his last 6 have put up at least 9 runs. Tonight he will be facing an Angels offense that is starting to come around. The Halos come in hitting .307 and scoring 5.6 rpg in their last 5 games, and they are just off a series with the Yanks in which they scored 19 runs in the 3 games. Their hot hitting should continue tonight vs a struggling Texas staff that allowed a weak hitting Seattle team to put up 31 runs in the last 2 games of their series. Not a lot of high scoring games in this park this year, but that was mostly due to weak Angles hitting. Well they are coming around and that should make tonight's game a fun one. Look for at least 11 runs tonight.
St Louis -110 over NY METS: Gonna side with a hot Adam Wainright here, to take down the Mets in game 1 of this series. Adam had a rough start to this year, but he comes in having allowed just 3 ER's in his last 3 starts, plus he should be a bit fresh here after throwing just 87 pitches in his last start. He will be facing a Mets team that is not a great hitting team at home as they have hit just .241 and have scored just 3.8 rpg at Citi Field this year. Pitching for the Mets is Johan Santana and while he has done a fine job for them with a 1.60 ERA in 6 starts at home, he has averaged just 6.5 innings per game at home and once he leaves then the Cards will be able to tee off on a NY pen that has a 7.01 ERA in their last 10 games. He will not be facing an easy offense tonight as the Cards come in have scored 27 runs in their last 4 games, while on the road this year they have averaged 4.8 rpg and have hit .263. Let's also note that St Louis is 6-2 on the road vs lefties this year. I expect a solid pitching matchiup for much of the game, but once this game goes to the pens, it's all St Louis.
Rocketman
Arizona @ San Diego
Play: Arizona -121
Arizona travels to San Diego to take on the Padres in Game One of this 3 game series. San Diego is 3-16 this year against left handed starters. San Diego is scoring only 3.2 runs per game overall this year, 2.9 runs per game at home this season, 2.7 runs per game against left handed starters and 3 runs per game at night this year. San Diego's offense is weak as they have a team batting average of .208 at home and .207 against left handed starters. San Diego is allowing 6.6 runs per game their past seven games overall. Wade Miley takes the hill for Arizona where he is 6-1 with a 2.41 ERA in all games this year, 5-1 with a 2.27 ERA in all starts this season, 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA on the road and 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA his last 3 starts. Clayton Richard starts for San Diego and he is 2-6 with a 4.76 ERA overall on the season. Arizona gives San Diego their 7th straight loss here tonight. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona tonight!