Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, March 1

Undefeated's Triple Confirmed Plays

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Gold Medal Club Selection
CBB: #829 Yale +4

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Yale at Columbia

The Bulldogs look to build on their 8-0 ATS
record in their last 8 games against Columbia.
Yale is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel,
which has the Bulldogs favored by 3 1/2.
Dunkel Pick: Yale (+4).

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
COLUMBIA 62, Yale 61

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Ben Burns NBA Best Bet

12-1 10* RUN

10* Phoenix

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Game 819-820: Atlanta at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 118.190; Phoenix 116.934
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+4); Under

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
Atlanta 99, PHOENIX 97

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Basketball Crusher
Memphis Grizzlies +8 over Miami Heat
(System Record: 67-4, lost last game)
Overall Record: 67-49-1

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JACK JONES
NBA Basketball Premium Picks
-= TOP PLAY =-
NBA | Mar 01 '13 (8:05p)
Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat
Memphis Grizzlies
+8-108 at 5dimes

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Game 811-812: Memphis at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 120.603; Miami 127.257
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 6 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 8 1/2; 187
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+8 1/2); Over

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P.S.

1. Memphis has won two of its last three trips to Miami, including a 97-82 triumph on Apr. 6 last season.

Wunderdog

Houston at Orlando
Pick: Houston -8.5

The fate of the Houston Rockets lies with their offense. This is a team that has scored 100+ in 14 of their last 15 games. They will take on the Orlando Magic for the first time this season. The Magic is allowing 46.6% shooting against them as well as 100 points per game, so slowing this Houston attack won't be in the cards tonight. The Magic's offense has only seen the 200-point mark once in their last seven games, and head into the danger zone here as their defense has allowed 107 ppg over their last nine. The Rockets are feasting on bad defenses, and are 21-7 ATS facing a team that allowed 100+ in their last game. The Magic is mired in an ATS slump at 1-10 ATS in their last 11 against a team that scored 100+ in their last game. Houston gets the call.

Sam Martin

Harvard at Princeton
Prediction: Under

The top two teams in the Ivy League square off tonight, and while we have a slight lean towards taking the points with the visiting Crimson, we feel there's more value in backing the Under here. Princeton runs a very deliberate, slow-paced game style which they should be able to dictate here on their home court, and on the season they allow just 57 points per game (in all games, in home games, and in conference play). Harvard's offense drops a full 5 ppg down from their season average when they play on the road, scoring just 65 ppg, but we expect even less against this defense and in this slow-paced environment. Harvard's defense hasn't been to shabby of late either, holding three of their last four foes to under 58 points. The Crimson's perfect 7-0 Under mark as road underdogs of 3.5 to 6 points seals it for us - look for a defensive battle as both teams struggle to reach 60 points!

Jimmy Boyd

Detroit Pistons vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: New Orleans Hornets

You should always play against a team like Detroit when they are revenging a loss against a team that scored 100 points or more and that opponent is coming off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. This situation is 85-46 (64.9%) over the last five seasons. The Pistons are 6-16 ATS in road games over the last two seasons when playing against teams shooting 36% or better from beyond the three point line. New Orleans has been dangerous from three point land shooting 37.1% this year. The Hornets are 12-4 ATS coming off a road loss by 10 points or more this season. The Piston’s are 8-20 straight up on the road and they are entering their second leg of a three game road stretch. Detroit pulled off a surprise win over Washington and that has them in a letdown spot tonight playing on just one day of rest. These teams are equally bad, but the smart money is on the home team laying a small number.

Rob Vinciletti

Memphis vs. Miami
Play: Under

Both of these teams plays tremendous perimeter defense. In the series 21 of the last 30 have stayed under and 8 of 10 more recently. Miami will have a harder time scoring here and shooting over 50% like they have in the last 4 games against a staunch Memphis defense. The Heat have played under in 5 of 7 with 2 days rest. These two scored 179 here last season. Memphis has played under in 5 of 6 vs the South East Division and 10 of 14 off 3+ unders. In games after allowing 85 or less they have played under in 16 of 20. Look for this one to stay under tonight.

David Chan

Marist vs. Siena
Pick:Siena

Situational Analysis

Marist is coming off a 112-74 win over Virginia Military on the 23rd. Chavaughn Lewis had career-highs of 30 points and 16 rebounds. Let's not get too caught up in that victory though, as Marist is just 8-20 overall, and 2-11 on the road.

Siena is coming off a 65-57 OT win over Radford on the 24th. Davis Martens had 18 points and nine boards; O.D. Anosike added 11 points and 14 rebounds. The victory snapped a five-game losing streak, and suffice it to say, I'm expecting this team to carry that momentum over into tonight's contest.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Marist is just 4-5 ATS vs. poor offensive teams that score 64 points or less per contest this year, and just 3-4 ATS following a conference games.

Note that Siena is 5-4 ATS vs. teams with losing records this year, and 6-5 ATS in front of the home town crowd.

Pick Analysis

The last time these teams played against each other, Siena came away with a 79-75 win on January 27th. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but I simply can't understate how important home floor advantage will be this evening, and look for the Saints to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night; consider a second look at Siena in this one!

Undefeated's Triple Confirmed Plays

BEN BURNS
9* NCAA Personal Favorite
MANHATTAN PK

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Game 835-836: Fairfield at Manhattan (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 53.836; Manhattan 60.470
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 6 1/2; 110
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 1; 114
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+1); Under

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
MANHATTAN 57, Fairfield 53

Larry Ness

Indiana vs. Toronto
Pick: Indiana

The Indiana Pacers lost a rare home game last night 99-91 to the Clippers, as starting center Roy Hibbert (10.0-8.1) sat out his one-game suspension. Without Hibbert, the Pacers allowed 50 points in the paint, nearly 15 more than their NBA-best season average of 35.3. Hibbert returns here and the Pacers should be anxious to get on the court vs the Raptors, who ended Indiana’s 15-game home winning streak (100-98 in OT) back on Feb 8. In fact, the Raptors are the only team with two victories visiting the Pacers and are one of only four teams in the East with two wins against them on the season. Rudy Gay is averaging 20.4 points and 6.8 rebounds in 12 games since being acquired from Memphis on Jan 30. but he is in a shooting slump, converting just 35.3% of his shots the last six games (Raptors have lost three of their last four). While the Raptors are just 23-35 on the season (SIX games back of the 8th playoff spot in the East), the 36-22 Pacers look like Miami’s “main threat” in the East. Indiana had covered 11 of its last 13 games prior to losing last night without Hibbert and while the Raptors have beaten the Pacers in TWO of three meetings this season, the Pacers have choked off Toronto's attack in those games, holding the Raptors to just 84.0 on 39% shooting. I’m taking the road team.

Sean Murphy

Atlanta vs. Phoenix
Pick:Phoenix

The Suns will prove to be a 'tough out' for a third straight game after edging out the T'Wolves and Spurs, both in overtime, in their last two contests. One week ago tonight, Phoenix was blown out by 25 points by Boston on its home floor. Expect to see the Suns make amends in front of the home faithful tonight. Atlanta is in a bit of a tough spot from a motivational standpoint. It has reeled off three straight wins to open its current road trip, and things will get a lot tougher with two more stops to come in Los Angeles (vs. the Lakers) and Denver on Sunday and Monday. The Suns could be an easy target to overlook tonight. Note that Atlanta closed as a 4.5-point underdog in Utah on Wednesday night, and is now laying the same number in Phoenix. The Hawks closed as a one-point favorite in their lone stop in Phoenix last season, and eked out a 101-99 victory. Nothing has come easy for the Hawks in this particular series, as they've dropped four of the last five, and seven of the last nine meetings. Their two SU victories have come by a combined three points. Look for some offensive regression from Atlanta tonight, opening the door for an increasingly-confident Suns squad to earn another ATS cover.

Bruce Marshall

Harvard vs. Princeton
Pick: Princeton

Serious Ivy title implications, as Harvard effectively sews up the league crown with a win, while Princeton can forge a tie atop the loop if it can reverse an earlier 12-point loss at Cambridge on Feb. 16,when the Tigers hit only 40% from the floor. Princeton usually shoots straighter at the still futuristic-looking Jadwin Gym, and it expect more from 6-8 Tiger soph Denton Koon, who has scored in double digits in nine of his last ten, with the only exception his subpar 7-point effort in that earlier loss vs. the Crimson. Mostly, Koon has been an invaluable contributor in the past six weeks for Mitch Henderson’s troops, removing some of the scoring burden from seemingly ageless sr. F Ian Hummer (16.1 ppg).

JR ODonnell

Detroit/New Orleans Over 193.5

#'s are strong here guys as Over is 4-0 in these Hornets last 4 home games & Over is 5-1 in Hornets last 6 overall. Let's play the Over as these 2 will put up points early and often... Power rated @ 200.32 points as we go Nice 6 point under lay on the power rated mark.... New Orleans laid an O egg with a 74 spot last game ... Back at the Offense tonight.

Andre Gomes

Golden St / Boston Under 198.5

Stephen Curry had a monster game at NY against the Knicks, where he was virtually unstoppable with 11-13 3pts and a league high 54 points for the season! This is particularly remarkable, as he had already played very well in the previous day at Indiana against the #1 ranked defense in the league, with 14-20 FG, 7-10 3pts and 38 points! But the main problem for Curry tonight is that he is human! So, it is natural that he will have a physical letdown today after such a huge effort in back to back games against top teams. Now on a poor spot, as the Warriors will be playing their third game in four nights, all on the road, not only Curry will struggle due to the spot, as he will also be facing the single worst possible matchup in the league for him, with Avery Bradley and Courtney Lee. And it seems that they are ready to face Curry tonight:

"The pitbull is not letting that go down," Courtney Lee said while pointing at Avery Bradley. "And when the pitbull gets tired, you've got the other pitbull right here growling."

As obvious, Boston's defense with these two players is #1 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense with just 0.71 PPP. In fact, Boston is also #2 in the league in spot up defense with 0.87 PPP. Just the fact that the Celtics are an elite defensive team on these two areas turns them immediately a tough matchup for the Warriors, who rely on pick and rolls and spot up plays on their offense. If we add to the fact that Golden State isn't on a good spot for tonight and it seems clear to me that their offense is going to struggle on this contest.

On the other side, Boston is returning home from a long West Coast road trip and they had three days off for tonight, so it's normal that they will feel some rustiness on this contest. Golden State has been atrocious on rim defense without Andrew Bogut, Coach Jackson has been forced to play David Lee and Carl Landry together on the frontcourt, two poor defensive players. The good news for the Warriors is that Boston doesn't have a powerful frontcourt unit, as Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass are mid-range jump shooters and Boston doesn't attempt a high volume of shots at the rim on their games.

In fact, we are in front of two jump shooting teams on this contest. We won't see a lot of easy points down low tonight, but rather an absurd number of long range shots and on this potential scenario, both teams aren't on a good spot to perform at their best. Therefore, I see this contest being a relatively low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

SPORTS WAGERS

WASHINGTON +125 over New York

The Knicks have won consecutive games for the first time in nearly a month but impressive it was not. As a 10½-point home favorite over the reeling 76ers, the Knicks battled to win by six points. In New York’s next game, on two full days rest and facing a Warriors club playing their third game in four days and fourth game in six, the Knicks won by four as a 7½-point choice. Prior to that, the Knicks had dropped four in a row and five of six with only win over that span coming occurring at Minnesota in a game the Knicks had to rally from 11 down in the fourth quarter. New York’s hot shooting carried them in the early portion of the season but this bunch has slowed way down since, averaging 91 points per game over the past two months.

The Wizards are headed in the other direction. Their horrible start is well documented but that means nothing now. Washington has won three of four and seven of its past 10 games. And it’s not like they didn’t beat anyone of significance. Home victories over San Antonio, the Clippers, Denver and Houston, not to mention a road win at Milwaukee, confirms just how far this Wizards’ squad has come. Looking at each teams’ current form, you would be hard pressed to make a case as to why the Knicks should be favored on the road here. The Knicks will have to convince us on the court of that because right now we’re not sure they’ll be able to.

TORONTO +105 over Indiana

The Pacers five-game win streak was snapped last night at home to the Clippers. They will now play their third game in four days and they have the Bulls and Celtics on deck beginning with Sunday’s nationally televised game, making this spot an unfavorable one.

The Raptors are a club the Pacers just don’t take seriously too often. Toronto has won the last two meetings over Indiana at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and they’re only one of four teams in the East with two wins against them. The Raps only loss to Indiana this season was on opening night by two-points. Toronto's bench has outscored Indiana's reserves 93-57 in 2012-13. Toronto plays well against this guest. The games are usually tight and almost always come right down to the wire. In that respect, we trust a rested and new look Toronto club over a visitor playing three in four.

DENVER +103 over Oklahoma City

The Thunder own the NBA’s third best record behind Miami and San Antonio. OKC is not only winning games lately but they’re doing so effortlessly with three straight wins by an average margin of 30 points. The Thunder also lead the league in points per game with 106 and their defense has held their past two opponents to 74 and 72 points. Oklahoma City appears to be unbeatable right now but playing on a team when its stock is at its high point usually means you’ll be paying too much. Those last two wins came against the offensively challenged Bulls and Hornets and they were both played on OKC’s home court.

This is a different animal. The Nuggets offense has scored 110 or more in four straight. Denver is on a 13-4 run overall and they’ve won 24 of 27 home games. As if the Nuggets didn’t have enough firepower, out of nowhere, Ty Lawson has emerged as another serious weapon. The point guard has at least 20 points in eight consecutive games. He is averaging 26.1 points on 52.8 percent shooting over that span to go along with his eight assists per game. Lost in all the Thunder hype is that they’ve lost four of their past five road games in Cleveland, Utah, Houston and at the Lakers. This is by far the toughest road game of them all and the cheap price has us stepping in.

SPORTS WAGERS

Columbus +275 over CHICAGO

Ot included. No, we’re not crazy. Big upsets in sports happen on occasion when the heavily favored team is in an vulnerable spot while believing they just need to show up to win. This is one of those situations. Chicago has played 20 games and has picked up points in all of them, going 17-0-3. They are all over the sports news today after most were predicting their first loss last night in St. Louis. They won 3-0. Now the Blackhawks return home to play the NHL’s worst team (in the standings) before heading out again to play in Detroit on Sunday in a 12:30 PM EST matinée affair in what is being anticipated as the biggest TV audience in the U.S.A in this sports’ history.

The Jackets will come in here loose with nothing at stake. Columbus also figures to be a lot more jacked up than these Blackhawks and it’s not like they haven’t been competitive. Six of the Jackets’ last seven losses have been by one goal and five of those were on the road at Los Angeles, Anaheim, Detroit, St. Louis and these same Blackhawks just five days ago. This time around, the Jackets are in a better situation, while Chicago is not as the last time Columbus was in here, Chicago was going for an NHL record of opening the season with 17 straight games without a regulation loss and the joint was swarming with media and plenty of excitement. This one won’t have that same feel and for the Blackhawks, it has danger written all over it.

Minnesota +172 over ANAHEIM

OT included. Aside from the price, there is plenty to like here about the Wild. Coming into the season, Minnesota had a bigger roster turnover than any team in the NHL. With no preseason and just a few days to prepare for the opener, the Wild figured to take a bit longer to gel than other clubs. It should’ve come as no surprise to see Minnesota lose six of eight games early in the season. However, the Wild are now starting to click. They’ve reeled off four wins in their past five games and looked good in doing so.

The team that has scored the first goal in each game this year has gone on to boast an incredible .703 winning percentage. We mention that because the Ducks have given up the first goal in 12 of their 18 games and that alone gives this play plenty of merit. Remember, the totals in NHL games are 5 or 5½ and that’s why scoring that first goal is so critical. Anaheim is without question a very dangerous team but playing from behind takes its toll and at some point it’s going to catch up to them. This could certainly be one of those times.