Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, March 11,2011

DUNKEL INDEX

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Clippers at New Jersey Nets
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers

The Human Dunk Machine arrives in New Jersey tonight as Blake Griffin and the Clippers perform against the Russian Circus at the Prudential Center. The high-flying act from Los Angeles will be out to atone for a 14-point setback suffered in Game Six of the season and if things going according to script it should be no problem. That?s because the Clippers are 3-0 SU and ATS this season when avenging a same-season defeat against sub .600 Eastern Conference performers. Toss in ?Jersey?s soar? 3-15-1 ATS record against sub .420 opposition this campaign and we have all the ingredients of an NBA reality show in the making. To that we say, ?Break out the Ron Ron Juice and let?s get this show going.? We recommend a 1-unit play on the Clippers.

Cajun Sports

Dayton vs. Xavier
Play: Dayton +7

This battle between Ohio private schools located in the southwest portion of the state should produce an instant classic. When these two have met recently the games have come right down to the wire with Dayton losing by five and four points respectively. Dating back to last season’s A-10 Tournament second round the Flyers fell 78 to 73 in a real battle for both clubs. Xavier has injury issues which have limited them to eight actual scholarship players and the veteran Flyers have depth and solid athleticism on their side. We note that Dayton is 18-7-1 ATS when coming off two road contests in their previous games. If they are coming off two road games and now face a division opponent they have been perfect going 5-0 against the spread the last five times to post. Dayton has been perfect in another situation when coming off a road straight up victory and now installed as a conference road underdog going 5-0 ATS. Their record is also perfect in that situation when facing Xavier in their next game once again going 5-0 against the number. Finally, a check of the database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to Play ON CBB teams coming off two road games and now facing a division opponent in the current price range. These teams are a solid 27-13 against the spread in those contests. Take the points with the underdog as they take Xavier right down to the wire on Friday.

Jim Feist

Pistons at Thunder
Pick: Pistons

Detroit has stopped complaining and started playing basketball again, particularly on offense with Richard Hamilton, riding a 4-1 ATS run. Hamilton had 20 points the last game at San Antonio. The Pistons are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. This is the only home game in a rough stretch for Oklahoma City, playing 5 of 6 on the road. The Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Play the Pistons.

James Patrick Sports

Pacers vs. Raptors

The Home team is (14-3) ATS in the last (17) meetings and the Indiana Pacers are (0-4) ATS in the last (4) meetings in Toronto. The Big Man's Friday NBA complimentary selection is Toronto Raptors.

JR O'Donnell

Xavier, Ohio -7

Lay the 7 as the Xavier M Min are a sweet 15-1 in the Atlantic 10 Conference, & they wrapped up sole possession of the A-10 Regular Season Championship with its 66-55 pounding of St Louis on Saturday. XU has won at least a share of five straight A-10 Regular Season Championships. they are powerful boy$$$$$$$$.

Just a flat out stud in Xavier junior Tu Holloway the 2010-11 Atlantic 10 Conference Player of the Year and A-10 All-Defensive Team member, leads Xavier in scoring at 20.1 ppg. 2nd in the A-10 and 22nd in the country + filling up the assists at 5.5 apg. 2nd in the A-10 & 32nd in the country. and ft stroke @ .87% ... that is sweet!!!!!!!!! Add a couple of strong role players in M Lyons and K Frease and we smell a blow out early in Atlantic City!!

The Kids believe in coach Mack who has super super #'s @ 2010-11 Atlantic 10 Coach of the Year, is 50-15 (.769) overall and 29-3 (.906) in Atlantic 10 regular season play. #'s are very powerful @38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 neutral site games & Flyers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog . Favorite holds serve 15-5 the last 20 in the series

Tom Freese

Orlando Magic vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Orlando Magic -4½

Golden St is 28-36 straight up this year. The Warriors are 2-7 ATS their last 9 home games as home underdogs. The Warriors are 1-5 ATS their last their last 6 games as home dogs. Golden St is 1-5 ATS their last 6 games as home underdogs of 0.5 to 4.5 points. Orlando is 41-24 straight up this year. The Magic are 23-9-1 ATS their last 33 games vs. NBA Pacific teams. The Magic is 4-1 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. Orlando is 5-2 ATS their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Magic are 5-1 ATS their last 6 meetings at Golden St.

Rob Vinciletti

Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Boston Celtics -2

The Celtic have won 9 of the last 10 in this series, including 5 straight in Philly. Boston is a solid 6-0 with 5 spread wins after allowing 105 or more points this season and 9-3 off a straight up favored loss. In their last game they were caught flat footed at home and were down by over 20 points at home to the Clippers. While they made a nice run to get back into the game they still lost 108-103. Tonight they take on a Philly team that is off a tough loss blowing the lead late in the 4th quarter and losing in over time to Ok. City. Boston should play much better tonight. Look for them to move to 18-8 vs winning teams. Lay the small number with Boston.

EZWINNERS

Boston Celtics -2

Not many teams are playing better than the Philadelphia 76ers who have gone 16-6 since January 21st to move into seventh in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. The only East team with a better record in that span is Chicago at 16-4. That great play by the Sixers is giving as some nice value in this game as the Celtics are a very small two point favorite. Philly has been playing great and have gone 7-3 at home in their last ten games, but those losses came to three of the league's top eight teams record wise in Orlando, Dallas and Oklahoma City. The Celtics are coming off of a home loss to the Clippers in their last game, but Boston is 20-8 against the spread in their last twenty eight games following a straight up loss. Boston has won both meetings this year in close games and I expect them to win here as well. Lay the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Joseph’s +10 over Duquesne

Not interested in a Duquesne squad that lost four of five and six of its last eight games in the A-10. Definitely not interested in them spotting the Hawks 10 points. The Dukes beat the St. Joe’s, 75-63, at Hagan Arena on Jan. 5., but they led 56-30 with 14 1/2 minutes left. By contrast, the Hawks went 5-4 over its last nine games, including consecutive wins in games where losses would have ended their season so what happened in early January really does not matter much. The Hawks had been a factor in the A-10 for a long time before falling back the past two years but suddenly they’re coming on a bit when it counts. This is a team that is coached by a guy that’s used to winning 20 games a year and not losing 20. The Dukes are in a real serious shooting funk and have been for over a month. Can they win this game? Well, it’s going to be tough but given the current form and state on mind of the Dukes, one cannot count the Hawks out and at the very least they should be able to stay well within this range. If the Hawks get off to a good start, the fragile Dukes will in serious trouble. Play: St. Joseph’s +10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Connecticut +150 over Syracuse

Why not the Huskies? All they’ve done is knock off DePaul by 26, Georgetown by 17 and powerhouse Pitt yesterday. The argument for betting against them here is that they can’t possibly win four games in four days but it’s been done before, many times and it can happen again. Besides, after playing at noon yesterday, this one will feel like they had a full day off, as it tips off at 7:00 PM. In any event, UConn is thriving at the moment and surely they’re not taking a step down from Pittsburgh when they face the Orange. The Huskies are shooting lights out and you simply can’t play against a team that’s going this good and that’s playing with this much confidence. Syracuse is also hot with wins in their final five regular season games and a win yesterday against the Johnny’s. However, the Red Storm pushed them to the limit and the Orange didn’t exactly have the toughest schedule down the stretch. Three of Syracuse’s last five wins came against Rutgers, West Virginia and DePaul. Its other two wins were against Villanova and a sinking Hoya’s. Let’s also not ignore that prior to those five wins the Orange had dropped six of eight. You really can make an argument for either side here. Thing is, we’re talking about value and no matter how you break it down, in no way can make an argument that the Huskies can’t win this game. With a tag of 7½-5 and with momentum and confidence soaring, the Huskies definitely have a great shot to finish the deal. Play: Connecticut +150 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Carolina +183 over WASHINGTON

The Caps are on a serious roll right now with six straight wins and eight wins in their last nine. They are comfortably in a strong playoff position but these games still hold much importance, as Washington fights for first overall and first in their division. However, we could catch them a little flat tonight after that strong run and after an easy win over the Oilers. The Caps will host Chicago on Sunday and then they’ll head out for a six-game trip that starts in Montreal on Tuesday and also ends in Montreal 10 days later. The Canes, meanwhile, are in playoff mode. Every game is crucial, as they sit two points behind the Rangers for the final playoff spot. Carolina has picked up points in four of its last six games and one of those losses came against the then scorching Blackhawks. The Canes are healthy, they’re very well rested, they get outstanding goaltending and those three things alone give them a real good shot here. Throw in a sweet tag and we’ll gladly step in. Play: Carolina +183 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. ISLANDERS +138 over Boston

It’s been a rather rough week for the Bruins after losses to Pittsburgh, Montreal and Buffalo in OT last night. Add into the equation “the hit” that sent Max Paciorrity in another dimension and what we have here is a very vulnerable and exhausted Boston club that will be playing its third game in four days after that six-game road trip. This is simply an awful spot for the Bruins and there is also the added distraction of the whole hockey world wanting to discuss that aforementioned hit. Hell, it’s been the top news story in Canada for two days now and you can’t turn on the TV or radio right now without hearing about it. Politicians are involved and now the cops are involved too. In any case, we wouldn’t want to be laying a price like this on the Bruins or against the Islanders right now under ideal conditions but this is anything but. The Islanders are playing some pretty sweet hockey. They’re scoring goals, they’ve picked up points in points in five straight, they’re really playing with confidence and having fun and having fun is about the last thing the Bruins are feeling right now. Play: N.Y. Islanders +138 (Risking 2 units).

DALLAS -½ +106 over Minnesota

We’ve been calling them the most overrated team in the NHL all season and the only reason they’re vying for a playoff spot is because on most nights Niklas Backstrom or Jose Theodore is standing on their head. The Wild continue to get badly outplayed on a nightly basis. Even their most recent win over Colorado, they were the second best team on the ice but fortunately for them they got good goaltending and rallied from 2-1 down late in the second and scored three unanswered in the third when they were still outplayed. Minnesota has five wins in its last 13 games. In two of those wins against the Rangers and Ducks, they were outshot by a combined 89-50. Two other wins were against Edmonton and Colorado. This is a bad team that is seeing their luck slowly but surely running out. Now they have the daunting task of facing a Stars team they know they can’t beat. Dallas has beaten Minnesota five straight and the Stars are heating up once again. Brad Richards is back and the addition of Alex Guligoski has made a world of difference. The Stars have picked up points in seven straight. Upon returning home from a four-game trip they went into OT against the red-hot Flames before losing it 4-3. On that trip they won in San Jose, Los Angeles, and Phoenix and they also have a recent win in Detroit. The Stars take a huge step down in class here against these imposters and with the way they’re playing and with the determination they’re showing it’s hard to imagine these true imposters coming in here and leaving with anything besides another loss. Play: Dallas -½ +106 (Risking 2 units).

Jack Jones

Philadelphia 76ers +3

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing excellent value tonight as a home underdog to the Boston Celtics. Simply by name, the Celtics are a road favorite when they shouldn't be. Boston is absolutely depleted right now and will get out-worked for four quarters by this deep 76ers team. Boston is without Delonte West, Shaq, Glen Davis, Von Wafer and Jermaine O'Neil. The Celtics had only seven players play more than eight minutes late time out in their 103-108 home loss to the Clippers. Their thin bench will do them in again tonight.

The 76ers are the deepest team in the league with six players averaging in double-figures and 11 players averaging 10 minutes per game or more. While it's hardly a surprise that no Eastern Conference team has more wins than the Boston Celtics, none having more than the Philadelphia 76ers over the past seven weeks certainly is. The 76ers have gone 16-6 since Jan. 21 - the only East team with a better record in that span is Chicago (16-4) - to climb to seventh in the conference. Philly has lost their first two meetings of the season to Boston by a combined 5 points, and I fully expect them to have their revenge in this one. The 76ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Take Philly Friday.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Celtics/76ers UNDER 192

We only saw 164 total points scored when these two teams last faced off in December, and I'm expecting another high-intensity, low-scoring affair this evening. We always have to take a look at the Under with Boston because of how strong it is defensively. The Under especially looks good here because the 76ers don't spend much time at the foul line getting points with the clock stopped. In fact, Boston is 29-11 Under in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 185.5 total points scored in these games. Bet the Under.

Sean Murphy

Connecticut @ Syracuse
PICK: Syracuse -3.5

The Orange feel like they're playing their best basketball of the season right now, and I tend to agree with them.

Syracuse has now won six consecutive games SU, with five of those victories coming ATS as well. There was a bit of rust to deal with in the first half of yesterday's game against St. John's, but the Orange shook it off in the second half, scoring 47 points en route to a 79-73 victory. I expect some of that positive momentum they built late in that game to carry over into tonight's contest.

The argument could also be made that UConn is playing its best basketball right now, but the Huskies will be in tough on Friday, facing a team that's had their number lately, and playing for the fourth time in as many days.

Remember, the Huskies fell behind big early against Pitt yesterday, and actually trailed most of the way before rallying back, and winning on a last-second shot by Kemba Walker. That was a huge win for these young Huskies, beating what was considered the best team in the Big East. In fact, Pitt could earn a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament last week. I won't be surprised if we see a bit of a letdown from UConn tonight.

Syracuse took the lone regular season meeting between these teams, a 66-58 decision in Hartford. The Orange weren't at their best on that night, shooting just 37.7%, including 4-of-15 (26.7%) from beyond the arc. Yet they still managed to pull out the victory.

Kemba Walker has almost single-handedly carried the Huskies into this semi-final matchup, but he should find the going a little tougher tonight. Note that the Orange held him to 3-of-14 shooting, including 1-of-6 from beyond the arc in their regular season meeting.

The Orange are certainly comfortable playing at MSG, remember, they also beat St. John's here during the regular season. Syracuse has what could be classified as a homecourt advantage here in Manhattan, especially now that the Red Storm have been eliminated.

After making a disappointing early exit from last year's tournament, the Orange are determined to go the distance this weekend. Expect a much more complete effort than we saw from them yesterday, as they cruise past UConn, which has become slightly overvalued as the 'flavor of the week'. Take Syracuse.