Matt Fargo
USC vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona +1.5
This is a very interesting line move. Arizona opened as a one-point favorite over USC in most places and now the Wildcats are the underdog. The Trojans had an easy time with California yesterday and playing in their backyard has definitely played a part in this move. USC finished 1-313 overall including 10-8 in the conference and with that record, it is hard to find ways to make the Trojans a sleeper pick to win this tournament but there have been a lot of love for USC heading into this week. Since Arizona was blown out at UCLA, it has won three straight games, all against Oregon schools. The Wildcats were the regular season Pac Ten Champions and if they get wind of this line, which I know they will, they will be using that as a huge motivator because there is no way they should be underdogs. Arizona went undefeated at home and while it was not nearly as good away from Tucson, it went 9-4 in road and neutral court games which is a very solid record. The teams split their regular season meetings, both winning on their home floors. In the second matchup, riding an eight-game winning streak at the time, Arizona could not hold a three-point halftime lead and shot 35.8 percent to fall by eight points to the Trojans. That was one of the Wildcats worst offensive efforts of the season and they will be using that as a motivator on top of the getting no respect angle. Tempo will play a big role as Arizona will be looking to push it and if they succeed at that, USC Can't keep up. The key ingredient for that to happen is Derrick Williams who put up 22 points last night against Oregon St. The Pac Ten Player of the Year had just eight points in the loss to USC earlier in the season and it is safe to say he will be headed for a big night tonight. USC is just 10-23 ATS in its last 33 games following a double-digit win and 11-21 ATS in its last 32 games as a favorite. With Arizona moving into the role of underdog, it help as the favorite is just 2-9 ATS over the last 11 meetings. 3* Arizona Wildcats
Craig Trapp
Oregon vs. Washington
Play: Over 152.5
Two times they played this year already and both games went over their totals. WASH and ORE have played over in all of their Tournament plays. Thomas is an impossible matchup for ORE and he will force the up and down tempo pushing this one way over. No way this is close to this total more like WASH 84 - ORE 78
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Syracuse -3.5
The Orange won the regular season meeting at UConn by 8 points as their patented matchup zone limited the Huskies to 36.2% shooting. It was especially effective in slowing down Kemba Walker, who managed just 8 points on 3 of 14 shooting. The Syracuse zone should continue to be effective this evening against a tired UConn team playing its 4th game in 4 days. In addition, this is a letdown spot for UConn after such an emotionally and physically draining win over top seed Pittsburgh. I just don't think the Huskies will have enough left in that tank after yesterday's battle. Syracuse is really rolling, having won 6 in a row, and I expect it to keep right on rolling here. Lay the points.
Black Widow
1* on Utah Jazz +1
The Utah Jazz are fighting for their playoff lives. They should not be an underdog to the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. Look for Utah to build off of their huge last-second win over Toronto last time out and put forth a great effort Friday. Utah is 34-31 on the season while Minnesota is 16-50. Utah is a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 meetings with Minnesota. Minnesota is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. victory. The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Friday games. Minnesota hasn't won back-to-back games since February 7th and 8th. The Jazz are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. No question we are backing the right team in this one. Take the Jazz and the points.
Info Plays
3* Oklahoma City Thunder -9
Reasons why Oklahoma City will cover:
1) Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games. It's 27-6 since 1996.
2) Thunder are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and are 21-11 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
3) Detroit is just 28-42 ATS after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons, and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.
David Chan
Carolina Hurricanes @ Washington Capitals
PICK: Washington Capitals
I bet value where I see it and believe the Washington Capitals will lower the boom on the visiting Carolina Hurricanes tonight.
Washington is rolling right now; it put together one of its best overall performances in its 5-0 destruction of the Oilers on Wednesday; Alex Ovechkin had two goals and an assist; Eric Fehr had two goals as well.
Carolina is coming off a tough 3-2 overtime loss to Atlanta on Wednesday (note that Carolina is a brutal 1-7 its last eight on the road).
Carolina has to get geared up for a game tomorrow night vs. the Columbus Blue Jackets while the Capitals enjoy a day off to prepare for Chicago on Sunday.
This line should be higher; consider a second look at WASHINGTON tonight.
Ben Burns
Bruins @ Islanders
PICK: Under 5.5
Both this season's meetings have been high-scoring. However, I expect a lower-scoring affair this evening.
The Bruins lost 4-3 to the Sabres last night. That's noteworthy for a couple of reasons. For starters, they pride themselves on defense and goaltending and should be highly motivated to improve on that side of the ice. Also, note that they've seen the "under" go 8-6 after allowing four or more goals in their previous game.
The last time that the Bruins played the second of back to back games, they combined with the Oilers for five goals.
Additionally, note that the Bruins have seen the "under" go 11-7 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Looking back further and we find the "under" at a profitable 42-27 the past few seasons, when they played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. The "under" remains a solid 6-1-1 their last eight. Seven of those games finished with five or fewer goals.
The Isles have seen seven of their last 11 games against winning teams stay below the total. Consider the Under.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Edmonton @ Detroit
PICK: Detroit -1.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is the Red Wings on the "puck line":
The Oilers are a brutal 5-13 their last 18 on the road and were completely dominated in a 5-0 loss to Washington on Wednesday; they are 16-30 (-7.4 units) revenging a loss vs. an opponent this year.
On the other side of the rink: The Wings have lost four straight after a 7-4 win at Los Angeles on February 28th; take note though that Detroit is 17-9 (+3.9 units) when playing against teams with losing records this year.
Bottom line: Detroit will look to take out its frustrations on lowly Edmonton tonight; it's still amongst the NHL leaders with 220 goals this year.
And the Red Wings have outscored the Oilers 14-6 in three meetings this season; Edmonton has given up nine goals in losing its last two overall.
With San Jose and Chicago now nipping at its heels for second place in the conference and first place in the division respectively, look for the home side to break out of its slide with a monster offensive rout!
Sam Martin
Ball State at Kent State
Prediction: Kent State
We backed the Golden Flashes as our Member Play yesterday, and we'll come right back with them again here on Friday night. Kent State's 73-62 win over Buffalo last night marked the fifth time in their last six games they scored at least 72 points, and once again will have "home-court" advantage here with their campus being much closer to Cleveland than Ball State. Ball State has scored more than 70 points only once in their last six games, so we look for a similar result to yesterday's Golden Flashes win! 5* Play on Kent State.