Bobby Maxwell
Texas A&M (+9') vs. Kansas, at Kansas City, MO
I'm on a 65-34-3 run with my FREE selections and tonight I have a college hoops winner on Texas A&M getting the points against Kansas in the Big 12 tournament semifinals.
I know Kansas is likely playing for the overall No. 1 seed in the Big Dance, but they showed no urgency on Thursday in the Big 12 quarterfinals against Texas Tech, pulling away very late for the 80-68 win.
The game was so much closer than the score indicates as it was a 65-63 game with 5:55 left. Some Texas Tech mistakes led to a 12-0 Kansas run that helped the Jayhawks pull away. Kansas has won six straight regular season crowns, but almost went out in its first conference tourney game just like last year when they lost to Baylor.
Last time the Aggies and Jayhawks met was Feb. 15 when Texas A&M covered the number despite losing 59-54 at home. The Aggies led 52-48 in that one before Kansas went on an 11-2 run to end the game.
Texas A&M beat Nebraska in Friday’s quarterfinals, 70-64 but came up just short at the window. Donald Sloan had 23 points to lead the way, and he’ll be needed if the Aggies are going to stay close to the Jayhawks.
I like the fire this Aggies’ team brings to the court. They are hungry and they will keep it close with Kansas tonight. Grab the points and play Texas A&M.
4♦ TEXAS A&M
Miami vs. Virginia Tech (-4), at Greensboro, NC
I'm on a 65-34-3 run with my FREE selections and another college hoops winner is coming tonight as I lay the chalk with Virginia Tech as the Hokies battle Miami in the ACC quarterfinals.
Virginia Tech has owned this series with Miami and there’s no reason to believe the Hokies won’t get the easy win and cover here in the ACC quarterfinals.
The Hokies have won six of the last eight matchups with the Hurricanes (6-2 ATS), including an 81-66 blowout win back on Jan. 13 as a 3 ½-point home favorite. These teams met in last year’s ACC tourney with Virginia Tech winning 65-47 as a three-point underdog, limiting the ‘Canes to 18-of-52 shooting from the field.
Miami scored the 83-62 upset of Wake Forest on Thursday as 3 ½-point underdogs. Meanwhile the Hokies were laying in wait for this one, having earned a bye to the quarterfinals. They won their final two regular-season games, including an impressive 88-82 win on Saturday at Georgia Tech as five-point underdogs.
Malcolm Delaney stepped up and poured in 32 points to go along with nine assists as four starters hit double-digits in points. This team plays its best getting up and down the court and they need to score points to get it all going. Miami would rather keep the game lower scoring but they have got some matchup problems when it comes to Delaney.
Virginia Tech is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 neutral site games and the Hokies will light up the scoreboard here and get the win and cover. Play Virginia Tech.
3♦ VIRGINIA TECH
Michael Cannon
Dayton vs. Xavier (-2'), at NEW JERSEY
I’m now on a 7-2 run with my last nine free plays after yesterday’s 2-0 sweep!
Take Xavier minus the points over Dayton.
The Musketeers have revenge motive for a brutal 90-65 loss at Dayton on Feb. 6. Since that loss, Xavier has rattled off seven straight wins, going 5-2 ATS.
Dayton is on a 1-6-1 ATS slide in its last eight overall.
Xavier is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 versus the A-10 and the favorite is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these two.
Take Xavier as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ XAVIER
Minnesota vs. Michigan State, at INDIANAPOLIS
Take Michigan State over Minnesota in the quarterfinal round of the Big Ten tournament.
The Spartans have owned this series, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Minnesota looked awfully good in yesterday’s blowout win over Penn State, but the Gophers are going to have their hands full tonight.
Michigan State has won its last three and five of six overall. The Spartans have a balanced offensive attack, with four starters averaging double-digits in scoring.
Minnesota just doesn’t match up well with the Spartans and I see Michigan State rolling easily today.
Take Michigan State minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Marquette (+3) vs. Georgetown, at New York
Take Marquette plus the points against Georgetown in Friday’s Big East tournament quarterfinals matchup.
I admit Georgetown has played very well so far in this tournament. After crushing South Florida on Tuesday, the Hoyas shocked everyone with that performance against Syracuse yesterday (myself included, as I lost a 10 Dime play on the Orange). That’s now three straight wins and covers for G-Town, the first time either has happened the entire Big East season.
However, you have to go back to the end of the 2008 regular season for the last time the Hoyas won four straight conference games. Furthermore, you have to go back to the end of the 2006-07 season for the last time they cashed in four straight (a total of 106 games).
Meanwhile, you can’t ignore the astounding frequency with which Marquette plays (and wins) close games. With yesterday’s 80-76 upset of Villanova and Wednesday’s 57-55 win over St. John’s, the Golden Eagles have now seen 16 of their last 26 games have five-point margins or less. Since Feb. 21, Marquette has won six of seven games, with the games decided by 3, 2, 1, 21, 3, 2 and 4 points. Remarkably, four of those seven games went to overtime, and the Eagles won three of them.
One of Marquette’s nail-biters this season came at home against Georgetown back on Jan. 6. The Eagles took that one 62-59 as a 1½-point favorite, so they’ve now won and covered three straight meetings with the Hoyas. Finally, Marquette has been a rock-solid underdog all year, cashing in nine of 11 games when catching points.
3♦ MARQUETTE
Jeff Benton
Bad call on Syracuse with Thursday’s free play. Still, I remain on runs of 36-18-1, 26-12-1, 23-11-1 and 17-8-1 with plays that I’m giving away! For Friday’s freebie, I’ll lay the big chalk with Duke in early action versus Virginia in the ACC tournament quarterfinals.
First off, that Virginia ended a nine-game losing skid yesterday by beating Boston College 68-62 as a five-point underdog was hardly a shock. The Eagles were a mess this season and finished under .500 (15-16). Now Virginia takes a massive step up in class, and the Cavs know it. After all, they’ve not only lost to Duke four straight times, they haven’t cashed even once. Duke’s margin of victory in those four games: 22, 16, 25 and – back on Feb. 28 at Virginia – 18 points.
Go back to 2003, and the Blue Devils are 13-1 against Virginia (only loss being a two-point overtime setback on the road). Of those 13 wins, 12 were double-digit routs!
Virginia ended a six-game ATS slide yesterday and is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games (all in the ACC). The last time the Cavaliers won an ACC tournament game was in 2006, and they came back the next day and lost by 12 to North Carolina. And while Virginia is 3-8-2 ATS in its last 13 neutral-site games, Duke is 4-0 SU and ATS on neutral courts this year. Average margin of victory: 19 points per game!
6♦ DUKE
Scott Delaney
Massachusetts vs. Richmond
I know the Atlantic 10 underdogs went 3-1 on the opening day of the tournament, and that the underdogs have dominated most of the conference tourneys the past few days, but I am laying the double digits with the Spiders.
Led by a trio of scorers who all average double-digit points per game, Richmond is looking to enhance its seeding in the Big Dance, which I assume it will be in no matter where it finishes in the tournament. By winning in dominant fashion when it is supposed to, and possibly winning the whole thing, Richmond could walk away with a No. 4 seed on Sunday.
U Mass is going to struggle against the Spiders' defense, which allowed just 61.4 points per game and defend very well against three-point shooting teams. Opponents have struggled hitting shots against Richmond, netting 39 percent of shots compared to the Spiders’ 44.6 percent.
On the other hand, those trio of scorers Richomd has will shred the nation's 314th scoring defense that allows a healthy 75.4 points per game. Heck, the Spiders could tally around 85 by the time the final horn sounds, as they're going to roll to a blowout win.
Looking at some of the betting numbers, I know the underdog has covered six of the last eight meetings, but the Spiders are on ATS streaks of 8-1 off a straight-up win, 7-1 as a favorite, 4-1 on neutral court, 10-4 as a neutral-site court and 10-1 overall - all in Atlantic 10 play.
Lay the chalk.
4♦ RICHMOND
Craig Davis
Last night served as a wake up call for the Mounties who were nearly upset by the Cincy Bearcats in the Big East quarterfinals. Remember, I gave you Cincinnati because I felt West Virginia was looking past the Bearcats and that's exactly what happened. Don't think for a moment that having to hit a last-second shot didn't wake this team up and I expect them to come out with a renewed energy tonight, wanting to jump out to an early lead and follow that up with solid defense and timely baskets which should lead to a fairly solid win. I've watched West Virginia on several occasions this year, and although this squad isn't the greatest free throw shooting team in the nation, they do get to the line a bunch while limiting their opponents from getting there.
On the flip side, Notre Dame is playing way above their heads right now and while I believe they did underachieve during the regular season, they aren't in the same clase (talent-wise) as West Virginia. Their run through this tournament has been nothing short of impressive, but Luke Harangody can't keep up this pace after missing so many games due to injury and eventually it's going to catch up to him. Honestly, the Irish will have to play the perfect game to walk out of Madison Square Garden with a SU win and I just don't see that happening. And let's also not forget the Mounties have a little bit of revenge on their minds after dropping a 70-68 decision in South Bend earlier this year. WVU has covered three of the last five in this series and I just can't believe Notre Dame will continue their ATS run. It ends tonight with a convincing West Virginia win.
3♦ WEST VIRGINIA
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on UCLA +8
UCLA split with Cal this season, but the last time these two teams met, Cal put a convincing 14-point whooping on the Bruins. That defeat will serve as plenty of motivation for UCLA tonight. Plus, UCLA is a terrific 20-9 ATS when playing away from home in a revenge spot under coach Howland, only losing in these spots by an average score of 68.9 to 69.6. While the Staples Center is not UCLA's home floor, this will be a very pro UCLA crowd and that will only be to its benefit. We just can't ignore the fact that the Bruins are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points or that the Golden Bears are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. It is also worth noting that Cal is just 3-11 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons, another sign the Bears have been overvalued today. We'll take the points.
Tom Stryker
MICHIGAN ST (-) over Minnesota
Minnesota can't be happy about seeing Michigan State in the Big 10 Tournament. The Golden Gophers are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings against the Spartans and they obviously struggle in this series. It won't help Minny either that Big 10 favorites in the Quarterfinals hold a powerful 7-1 ATS record provided they're matched up against a foe that enters off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.
The Gophers enter this contest off a pair of blowout victories over Iowa and Penn St. Minnesota beat the Hawkeyes by 35 points and the Nittany Lions by 21 points. Unfortunately, the Golden Gophers have folded when matched up against an opponent that enters with momentum their own off a straight up win of 10 points or more posting a dismal 67-101 ATS record including a dismal 35-61 ATS in this role in Big 10 play!
In post season play matched up against a foe that arrives off a SU and ATS win, State has been lights out posting a tremendous 30-13 SU and 31-11-1 ATS record including 19-3-1 ATS in this role checking in off a blowout victory of 10 points or more. The Spartans made it all the way to the NCAA Championship Game last season and they know how to crank things up a notch in March. Lay the lumber here men. Take Michigan State.
MATT FARGO
Notre Dame @ West Virginia
PICK: West Virginia -4.5
Notre Dame is the hottest team in the Big East right now with six straight wins but I think this run comes to an end tonight. The first couple rounds can be treated as normal games and in the Notre Dame case, it won as a small favorite and as a small underdog so nothing was totally shocking. This is where we have to start treating these games differently however. This is the third game in three nights for the Irish and fatigue can become a factor especially during the latter stage of this game. In this conferenc3e especially where nothing is easy, that fatigue can be even more prevalent. Notre Dame has gone from outside the NCAA Tournament bubble to inside the NCAA Tournament bubble to a possible high seed in a matter of just three weeks. The win during this six-game run have been outstanding including Pittsburgh twice, Georgetown and Marquette. West Virginia is playing sensational as well as it has won four straight games. A Big East Tournament win and the Mountaineers cannot be counted out for a darkhorse number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. An efficient offense and a strong defense set the tome for this team that has been outstanding away from home this season. Outside of Morgantown, the Mountaineers are 12-4 on the season and we all know winning away from home is essential in these postseason games. Notre Dame has found a way to do it of late but that was not the case all season where it started out 2-7 in its first nine games outside of South Bend. The slow down approach has benefitted the Notre Dame offense but that is actually an edge for the Mountaineers who play a similar style and will not have to try and force the tempo like other teams have tried and failed to do. The defense of West Virginia has been the backbone and in every game where it held the opposition to 68 or fewer points the Mountaineers won, going 20-0. Getting to 68 points for the Irish has been hit or miss and with the new halfcourt style, getting to that point total against this defense will be a tough challenge. West Virginia lost the lone meeting in Notre Dame this season by just a bucket and that sets it up into a great situation. Play on neutral court teams that are revenging a loss as a favorite where that opponent is now coming off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. This situation is 82-43 ATS (65.6 percent) since 1997. 3* West Virginia Mountaineers
Black Widow
1* on Michigan State -3
The Spartans should be laying more points to Minnesota here. Michigan State is 7-0 S.U. & 6-1 ATS in seven meetings with the Gophers over the last 3 years. It's safe to say that the Spartans have their number, and Tom Izzo always has his team playing their best basketball during tournament time, so that won't change Friday. The Spartans are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more over the last 3 seasons. Michigan State will control the boards again tonight, which will be a big key in them picking up the victory. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Spartans and lay the points.
LT PROFITS
Lightning/Capitals Under 7
This contest between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Washington Capitals has the highest posted total of all time at 7, and while we understand the logic with these two teams, we still have to go Under just on principle alone.
Yes, the Capitals are averaging nearly four goals per game at home this season at 3.97, while the Lightning have been terrible on the road, surrendering 3.68 goals per contest. Still, Tampa Bay may not do enough scoring here for this game to go Over this bloated total.
After all, the Lightning are only averaging 2.44 goals per game on the road. Thus, despite their terrible defense, Tampa Bay road games are averaging 6.12 goals per game. While that figure is high compared to most totals, it is actually pretty low relative to this posted total. Besides, the Over has not performed as well as expected in Lightning road games, going 18-15, and none of those games had a total this high.
Also, while defense is often an afterthought for the Capitals when they play on the road, they actually do play defense at home, allowing 2.48 goals per game. Furthermore, Washington is only allowing 2.20 goals per game over the last five games, as they are attempting to tighten up the defense in time for the playoffs.
Look for the Caps to continue to work on that defense here, knowing that they should be able to outscore the Lightning regardless of the style they play.
THE PREZ
Western Michigan/Akron Under 134
The Western Michigan Broncos and Akron Zips easily went Over in their regular season meeting, a 79-70 Akron road win, but we look for a much lower scoring affair in the rematch today.
Akron is the second best defensive team in the MAC according to the Pomeroy Ratings with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of .977 points per possession, trailing only Kent State in the conference. The Zips are 23-9 because of that defense, which is allowing 66.1 points per game on only 42.1 percent shooting overall.
Despite their fine record, Akron is still not assured of an NCAA Tournament bid, a bid that they can clinch by winning this tournament. Thus, we look for them to do what they do best here, which is to slow the pace down and rely on their defense to win the game for them.
Western Michigan is not a terrible defensive either, as they are allowing 67.2 points per game on only 42.3 percent shooting, and their defense grades out decently by Pomeroy, with a PPP of 1.021. Yes, they average 68.9 points offensively, but they may not get a chance at approaching that season average if Akron is as successful at controlling the pace as we expect.
Do not look for this contest to exceed 130 points or so.
Scott Spreitzer
Pacers at Celtics
Pick: Celtics
There's something I haven't typed too often. But the Celtics are a fired-up squad, and I believe Indiana is "just what the doctor ordered." The Celts looked pathetic last time out, losing 111-91 at home to Memphis. It was their first loss to the Grizzlies in seven outings. The Celtics were thoroughly crushed across the board. Not only did they "go through the motions" on defense, allowing Memphis to "can" 55% of their shots, including 56% from the arc, but they also were out-rebounded, 48-29. Boston made just 28% of their "treys," and they missed nine of 24 free throw attempts. I believe Boston hit rock-bottom on Wednesday, which may be just what this team needed to turn things around...at least temporarily. Even Doc Rivers is beginning to feel the heat from the Celtic fans. Folks in Beantown want to know why this team is struggling, why they look far from championship caliber, and why nothing has been done about it. Rivers spoke about the team's struggles, and he's tired of hearing about how "old" this team's stars (sans Rondo) have become. Because of all the negative attention, and the fact that they may have bottomed-out, I suspect we'll see Boston at their very best, start to finish on Friday. Indiana did win their most recent contest, an 11-point win on 3/9 over Philly. But the Pacers have followed their last three SU wins with four, three, and four game losing streaks. In fact, they have lost three straight games following their last three wins by an average score of 102-87.3! They're just 3-11 in their last 14, and I expect another big loss on Friday for the Pacers. I'm laying the points with the Celtics.
Rocketman
Western Michigan vs. Akron
Play: Akron -3.5
Western Michigan is 1-8 ATS this year after a win against a conference opponent. Western Michigan is 2-8 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less. Akron is 7-1 ATS last 3 years after allowing 80 points or more. Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog. Broncos are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games. Broncos are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win. Broncos are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Broncos are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 Friday games. Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Zips are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Mid-American. Zips are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Friday games. Zips are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite. Zips are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. Favorite is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Broncos are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Akron tonight!
LEE KOSTROSKI
Brigham Young @ UNLV
PICK: UNLV
UNLV has the advantage of playing on their home court during the Mountain West tournament. That extra familiarity will play a huge role tonight. They were 11-3 at home this season, with close losses to Kansas State (currently #9 in the country), Utah, and New Mexico (currently #8 in the country). UNLV is on a current 5-game win streak, winning by double digits every game with an average margin of +21.4 PPG. They beat up on Utah in the 1st round of the MWC tournament by holding the Utes to 32.5% (just 13-40 field goals) and out-rebounding Utah by 11. They are playing really well right now and we expect them to get the win over BYU tonight.
The Runnin’ Rebels defeated BYU in their latest meeting on February 6th (@UNLV) by 14 points. UNLV shot 52.5% (including 12-23 from 3-point range) and held BYU to just 38.1%. BYU’s best player, Jimmer Fredette (20.6 PPG), was held to just 4 of 15 shooting. That made it six straight home wins over BYU. Tonight’s game isn’t technically a “home” game but it is played on their home court and will have the same feel.
BYU defeated TCU yesterday in the MWC tournament, but barely. TCU (13-19) out-shot the Cougars and held a halftime lead. They remained close nearly the whole game but lost by 10. BYU shot an astonishingly high 37 total free throws. They made 33 of them, led by Fredette – who made 23 of 24 free throws.
Brigham Young is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings with UNLV. The favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and we expect the Rebels to get the win tonight.