Hollywood Sports
Notre Dame at West Virginia
Prediction: Notre Dame
We are always on the lookout for teams that are surging in March with renewed momentum -- and we think we have found it with Notre Dame. While conventional wisdom may be that the Irish's surge has coincided with the return of their star forward, Luke Harangody, from injury. But Carleton Scott has been solid in his place as he has offered some needed infusion of athleticism on the defensive end of the court. Of course, having a dominant inside scorer like Harangody coming off the bench has to help. But the deeper metric statistics help expose what is really going. Over the last five games of the regular season, coach Mike Brey has deliberately slowed down the tempo of the game. While in Notre Dame's first 14 games of the season they were averaging 65.8 possessions per 40 minutes, that number has dropped to 56.6 possessions per 40 minutes. And the results are staggering. Notre Dame had been allowing their opponents to score on average +1.13 points-per-possession, this figure has now dropped over the final five games of the regular season to just +0.97 PPP. Slowing the tempo down has helped the Irish mitigate the talent difference that the elite teams in the Big East enjoy. It has allowed them to rebound the ball better on the defensive end. And, perhaps most importantly, Notre Dame is not giving up as many open 3s. In the Irish's first fourteen games in Big East play, they allowed their opponents to shoot 37% from behind the arc. In those closing five games, Notre Dame's opponents are shooting just 24% from behind the arc. What prompted the change? ESPN.com reports that assistant coach Anthony Solomon was reminiscing about his 1984 Virginia team that dramatically slowed the tempo of the game down in their NCAA Tournament run -- which included a 49-47 win over the Phi Slamma Jamma explosive offense of the Houston Cougars (with Olajuwan and Drexler). Brey took notice -- had an epiphany -- and changed his offense immediately. The results were obvious last night as Notre Dame slowed the game down to grind out a 50-45 win over Pittsburgh. They will do the same thing tonight against West Virginia. In a game where 120 total points will not be scored, Notre Dame +5 is a very enticing proposition. Take the points with the Irish
Dennis Macklin
Take Charlotte -10 over the LA Clippers
The Charlotte Bobcats are looking more and more like they’re for real, now 4-0 SU and ATS since Michael Jordan became the majority partner. Charlotte is doing it on the defensive end giving up just 80-93-78-90 points respectively vs Lakers, Golden State, Philly and Miami. Tonight, the BCats get the freefalling Clippers playing their third road game in four nights and 0-5 SU and ATS with losses of 11-26-22-17-26. Further, the Clippers just 3-10 ATS in L13 versus winning records and 6-16 ATS after allowing 105+. Charlotte 7-2 ATS this year vs the Pacific and 28-14 ATS over time after a double-digit win. Much like the OKC Thunder, the Bobcats have a solid young nucleus with Jackson, Wallace, Felton and several nice role people that will make Charlotte a tough out in the playoffs. Tonight, Charlotte 106-87.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Pacers +9
With as badly as Boston is struggling right now, I just can't justify laying this many points on them, especially when you consider that it is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a favorite and 10-29 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, the Celtics are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Pacers have covered the spread in 4 straight in this series and we'll look for them to make it 5 in a row tonight.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Kansas Jayhawks -9
Texas A&M gave Kansas all it wanted and more in a 5-point defeat back in February, but expect the Jayhawks to flex their muscles on a neutral floor tonight. Well, it's actually closer to being a home floor for Kansas. With the tourney being played in Kansas City, there will be a lot of Jayhawk faithful on hand to root for their team. Kansas is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 84.9 to 65.3. Kansas is also 18-5 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 79.6 to 64.4. We'll lay the points with the Jayhawks tonight.
Info Plays
3* on UC-Santa Barbara -4.5
Reasons why Santa Barbara covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Neutral court teams (CAL DAVIS) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season. This is a 26-6 ATS System hitting 81.2% since 1996.
2.) Santa Barbara is 18-9 this season while UC-Davis is 14-17. Yes, Davis has been playing well of late, but that's the only reason this line is as small as it is. That gives us great value on the favorite, clearly the better team as well. Bet UC-Santa Barbara.
Black Widow
1* on Michigan State -3
The Spartans should be laying more points to Minnesota here. Michigan State is 7-0 S.U. & 6-1 ATS in seven meetings with the Gophers over the last 3 years. It's safe to say that the Spartans have their number, and Tom Izzo always has his team playing their best basketball during tournament time, so that won't change Friday. The Spartans are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more over the last 3 seasons. Michigan State will control the boards again tonight, which will be a big key in them picking up the victory. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Spartans and lay the points.