Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Heat -5.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Heat won't get caught overlooking the Bucks. First off, the winning streak has kept them interested even against lesser competition. Secondly, it's likely the Heat will face the Bucks in the first round of the playoffs so they'll be looking to send a message. Thirdly, Miami took an embarrassing 19-point loss in Milwaukee in December the last time these two met. LeBron James and company have not forgotten about that loss and will be out for their revenge. The high total suggests oddsmakers are expecting Miami to show much better in Milwaukee this time around. Consider that the Heat are 7-0 ATS this season in road games when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. They have won these contests by an average score of 105.7 to 91.7. It is also worth noting that Milwaukee is 1-11 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Bucks are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take Miami.
MATT RIVERS
Friday's free play is the Boston College Eagles plus the points as they take on Miami-Florida.
This is just too many points to give to the streaking Eagles, as Boston College roughed up Georgia Tech by 20 in yesterday's opening round, as they ran their winning streak to an impressive 4 in a row, and 5 of their last 7 overall.
BC has also covered 3 in a row, and 6 of their last 8 when listed as the underdog.
As for Miami, the Hurricanes have struggled against the spread down the stretch, as Jimmy Larranaga's team is just 2-3 straight up their last 5 games, and just 2-5 against the spread their last 7. It is clear the linemakers have caught up to the Hurricanes as we get set for the madness to begin.
The Canes have won the last 6 series showdowns, but are only 4-3 against the spread the last 7 times the schools have met.
Expect Miami to advance, but don't look for this one to be any cake-walk.
BC plus the points.
2* BOSTON COLLEGE
JEFF BENTON
Your Friday freebie is the Lobos of New Mexico in their semifinal contest against San Diego State.
Love the way the Wolves are playing right now, as they have lost just once in their last nine games straight up, and they have also been money for their backers in five of their last seven.
As for the Aztecs, they were able to avenge their regular season finale loss to Boise State in the opening round, but Steve Fisher's team is just 4-4 straight up their last eight, and 1-4 against the spread their last five. That does include a 10-point loss to New Mexico at the Pit back on February 27th.
In all, the Aztecs are on a 1-3 straight up and against the spread slide the past four series meetings with the Wolves.
Gotta go Lobo in your first Mountain West semi on Friday night!
3* NEW MEXICO
BRAD WILTON
NBA Friday night free play is the Orlando Magic plus the points at Oklahoma City.
I realize the Thunder just destroyed the Jazz on Wednesday night, and I realize the Magic are not exactly "world beaters", but I can easily see Oklahoma City not take this game very seriously, and see them leave plenty of open door space for the Magic to magically find the back-door.
Orlando has been able to cover 3 of their last 5, and 5 of their last 9 overall against the spread, and they did compete the other night at home when former player Dwight Howard came calling.
No chance the Magic pull off the outright win, but they have covered 4 in a row on the road, and as I said the mighty Thunder can win this game in their sleep, it is just that -16 1/2 points or so in an awful lot to ask them to cover especially after they just won by 23 on Wednesday.
I will take my chances and take the Magic plus the points.
2* ORLANDO
Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Syracuse at GeorgetownFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: GeorgetownFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This not one of Jim Boeheim's elite teams at Syracuse (25-8) this season. The Orange struggle in their half court offense given their 46.0% effective field goal percentage in conference play (10th in the Big East). Syracuse's opponent's eFG of 45.6% is pretty good -- but as 4th best in the Big East, their defense is not as stout as it has been in the past few seasons. But what remains the same for this Boeheim team is their sacrificing boxing out their opponents in lieu of setting up baskets in transition. The Orange are 13th in the Big East by allowing their conference opponents to pull down 36.6% of their misses. What is particularly worrisome about this Syracuse team is that while they are outscoring their Big East opponents by +0.18 Points-Per-Possession at home, their net scoring efficiency plummets to -0.03 PPP when on the road. That is an ominous metric when considering that the Orange have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games played on a neutral court. Additionally, Syracuse have failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Georgetown (25-5), on the other hand, has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Hoyas also play very well on the road as evidenced by their impressive +0.08 PPP on the road against Big East opponents. Georgetown typically matches up well against the Orange as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in this series. With the Hoyas have the X-Factor in superstar Otto Potter, lay the points with Georgetown.
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UTEP vs. Southern MissFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UTEPFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In this battle of number 2 versus number 3 seed, these teams have each clinched a post-season appearance but understand this is an elimination game for their NCAA hopes. In an earlier meeting played in Hattiesburg, home-standing S Miss got the victory 45-39, despite UTEP getting the cover with their preferred tempo, with a far superior defense. Though UTEP got the cover in that game, I believe they eat the whole pie today. S Miss runs deep and loves a fast pace. In a top play winner for us yesterday, they demolished UAB shooting 53% from the field, knocking down 9/22 threes’, owning the boards with a +11 margin. But true to their season form they committed 15 turnovers. It will be the Golden Eagles’ undoing today as every possession will matter in this contest. Under veteran HC Floyd, a young UTEP team is playing its best ball of the season; not only are they defensively tenacious with numbers of 60/41, but they are playing with the confidence that comes from winning. Since mid-February, they are 5-2 SU but 7-0 ATS with their only losses at S Miss and by 2 at home to Memphis. In a game where it’s a matter of tempo and each team playing with need, must favor the better coach, the defense, and the slower tempo.
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Colorado State vs. UNLVFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Colorado StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even if Colorado State lost Dorian Green this team does not give up and I think 4.5 points is a lot to work with and gives us crazy good value for the match up where each team won at home during the regular season as a -4, but Colorado State won ATS for both and I expect them to do that here again today. Colton Iverson is a fearless leader and I expect them to continue to play well as they search to get into the NCAA Tournament.
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Memphis vs. DenverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DenverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Denver Nuggets are red hot right now, winners of 10 straight, but they face another hot team tonight, with the Memphis Grizzlies in town. The Grizzlies are winners of 14 of their last 15 overall. Memphis is coming off a big win in L.A. over the Clippers on Wednesday, while the Nuggets are coming off another blowout win at home over the Knicks.
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Here are my keys to the game:
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1: Fatigue - The Grizzlies are on a West Coast road trip, playing their third straight game away from home, and this will be their third game in four nights. Playing in a 3-in-4 situation isn't easy at the best of times, but it may prove to be particularly tough in the high altitude of Denver. Another concern for Memphis will be the health of star PF Zach Randolf, who played on back-to-back nights after returning to the lineup from injury. Randolf did not show any signs of rust against the Clippers, but Memphis might not want to push it with Randolf logging heavy minutes tonight.
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2: Recent History - Denver isn't just winners of 10 straight overall, they are also perfect against the spread, covering the points in each of those victories. They have a home record of 29-3, and they have won 14 in a row in Denver.
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3: X-Factor - Good teams in the NBA have two or three players that are capable of being the deciding factor on any given night. Denver has an embarrassment of riches, and they have a long list of such players, not just the starters but well into their bench as well. It could be the "Manimal" Kenneth Faried, it could be Iggy, Wilson Chandler, Ty Lawson, Gallinari or Andre Miller. I expect depth in scoring to be one of the X-Factors for the Nuggets tonight.
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Detroit vs. EdmontonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit is 12-10-5 overall, but just 3-6-2 on the road. It's coming off three straight losses, and will definitely be looking to get untracked against a team it's enjoyed plenty of success against. The Wings have played the Oilers twice so far in this strike-shortened season, winning 2-1 at home on February 9th, before it won 3-0 in Detroit once again, on March 7th. Most recently Detroit fell 5-2 at Calgary. Kind of a disappointing result when realizing that the Wings actually held a 38-22 edge in shots: ''That was a disturbing loss, because all we had to do was continue to do things right, and you win the game,'' Red Wings coach Mike Babcock said after. ''Whether we don't have the maturity as a group, or the stick-to-it-ness, there is no sense in what happened here.'' Edmonton is 10-11-5 overall and 4-4-2 at home. The Oilers have won two straight, including a 4-0 effort at Colorado on Tuesday. Two days earlier they won 6-5 at Chicago. This situation definitely points to a higher-scoring game. The Wings are hungry to break out of a slide, and the Oilers are eager to keep the momentum rolling. While the first two games of this season series went under the posted number, I firmly believe this one will go the other way.
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Texas State vs. New Mexico St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New Mexico St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Looking for Cinderella in March? That slipper doesn’t fit better than it does for 12-21 Texas State, which has already won twice at the WAC Tourney and dumped heavily-favored Denver in a quarterfinal shocker on Thursday. But despite the peculiarities of this far-flung conference, can’t see the Bobcats advancing much further, especially since their size disadvantage was exploited so ruthlessly in a pair of double-digit NMSU regular-season wins, when the physically imposing Aggies dominated the glass by a combined 75-51 over the two games. It would help NMSU if menacing-looking 6-5 F Tyrone Watson (who scored double digits in both games in his recent return to active duty after a suspension related to choking and stomping a fellow student—we told you he was menacing—now iffy with an ankle that kept him out of Thursday’s quarterfinal) is available. But the Ags functioned well minus him in February and did again vs. Idaho on Thursday when 6-4 skywalking wing Daniel Mullings exploded for 23 points.
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Iowa St. vs. KansasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Iowa St.FOR REE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cyclones defeated Oklahoma Thursday, and they will face Big 12 rivals Kansas in the quarterfinals in Kansas City Friday. These two teams have played a couple of tight games earlier this season, but the Cyclones lost both of those both on their home court, as well as at Kansas.
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They went down fighting though, sending each of those games to overtime, only to lose in the extra frame.
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While Kansas has won nine of the last 10 meetings straight up, they haven't been able to cover the points in a lot of those victories. The Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Jayhawks. Iowa State has also covered the number in six of it's last eight games overall.
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The Jayhawks have won eight of their last 10 overall, and they have covered the spread in eight of those previous 10 games as well. If you take away their home games however, we see a totally different trend emerge. Four of their last 10 game were on the road, and they lost two of those four, failing to cover in each of those losses. The other two games were both close, each of those requiring overtime to decide a winner.
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The Jayhawks didn't have any trouble with Texas Tech playing at a neutral site, but the Red Raiders are bottom feeders in the Big 12. We should see the Cyclones give them all they can handle today, and we will be getting plenty of points considering the previous two meetings between these teams each went to overtime.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Miami -7.5 over Boston College: The Eagles have played very hard this year and have pulled some upsets along the way and they are off a big 20 point win over Georgia Tech, after trailing 15-0 in the game, but this is a Miami that is rested and should be rejuvenated after slumping a bit down the stretch. For Boston College it was a one player show for them yesterday, and Hanlan not poured in 41 points then Boston College would probably not be in this game. You can't expect the Kid to have the same kind of performance vs a much tougher Miami defense in this one and they will need the whole team to keep it close. In the two meetings this year Miami held BC to just 54.5 ppg on 41.1% shooting and they should keep them in that range again here. Miami is not a deep team, but they got the rest they needed and should come out and try to make a statement here with a huge win over a team that may be just a bit flat after their big come from behind win yesterday.
Ohio State -13.5 over Nebraska: The Cornhuskers played well at home this year, but away from their friendly confines they were just 4-11 and were outscored by 12.1 ppg. In their 7 Big 10 road losses this year they were outscored by 19.1 ppg, and hey did lose to the Buckeyes by 26 on the road. The Huskers are off a big upset win over Purdue yesterday. while the Buckeyes come in rested and ready to make a run at the Big 10/11/12 tournament Title. The Buckeyes have been dominant down the stretch, especially defensively, allowing just 54.2 ppg in their last 5 games and that is not good news for a Husker squad that has averaged just 55.6 ppg away from home this year. The Buckeye offense has not been great this year, bu they have averaged 67.4 ppg in their last 5 games and Nebraska's defense has been erratic, allowing 70+ points in 5 of their last 8 games. he Huskers just won't nearly put up enough points to keep his one close. I smell a blowout here.
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LaSalle +117 over Butler
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The Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York will be the site of this Atlantic-10 Conference semi-final between the well-known Butler Bulldogs and the much lesser known LaSalle Explorers. This is the time of year that thousands of casual bettors reload their betting accounts in preparation for next week’s main event. The Bulldogs are the most overrated mid-major team in the country in relation to other mid-major programs because of their back-to-back runs to the national championship game in 2010 and 2011. The oddsmakers have set a price here to attract plenty of action on the favorite and they are going to get it but not from us.
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Butler hasn’t defeated a top five A-10 school since they won over Temple way back on January 26th. Since then, they’ve played four games against teams above them in the Atlantic-10 standings and lost them all. On January 23rd, they lost to these same Explorers. Meanwhile, the Explorers have wins over Butler, VCU and Villanova. Their 11-5 conference record is the same as the Bulldogs’ conference mark. La Salle hasn't been invited to the Big Dance since 1992. They are right on the bubble now. A win here would go a long way towards solidifying a birth in next week's festivities and you can expect all focus from LaSalle to be on this, its most important game in a very long time. Butler is already in with 25 wins on the season.
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Georgetown -2 -110 over SYRACUSE
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The Orange get the benefit of playing in front of a partisan New York crowd at Madison Square Gardens but that provides us with a better number than if the game were played at a more neutral site. Jim Boeheim's squad is still considered to be one of the dozen best teams in the country. We’re not buying that for a second on a Syracuse team that had lost seven of 12 games before defeating Seton Hall in the season finale. Four of Syracuse’s five victories during that span were against teams that aren't going to the Big Dance.
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Georgetown has one of the most versatile players in college basketball in Otto Porter Jr. and in two games, Syracuse has shown they can’t stop him or even contain him. Hoyas coach, John Thompson III is one of the best at exploiting weaknesses and making the opposition pay for not being able to matchup. This is a Georgetown team that, while developing an offensive identity, already had a defensive identity. The Hoyas do not beat themselves, you have to beat them and Syracuse has not come close to proving they can compete with this foe no matter what floor they play on.
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Colorado +172 over Arizona
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The GM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas will be the site of this quarter-final, PAC-12 matchup and while the 4½-points being offered may look appealing, we like the Buffaloes enough to play them outright. Money was to be made betting against Arizona throughout the course of the Pac-12 season. The Wildcats are still mired in a long-term 7-14 ATS slump, including a 2-8 ATS mark on the road. Arizona is a decent team but the Wildcats are continually priced incorrectly, largely due to its #18 ranking and at early-season one-point (lucky) wins against Florida and San Diego State which anointed this team as an elite-level squad. We aren’t fooled.
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Colorado is a real matchup problem for the Wildcats. In the first meeting of the season between these two on January 3 in Arizona, the Buffaloes lost in OT. When the teams met in Boulder on February 14, Colorado exacted revenge with a 71-58 victory. One could argue that the Buffaloes were the better club in both matchups, especially in the second game. Now Colorado comes into this one with plenty of hot shooters, including 6’5 guard Spencer Dinwiddle, who has gone off for 20 points or more in five of the schools’ last eight games. The Wildcats are in the field of 68 at the main event. Teams that have their tickets punched already often relax at these rather meaningless conference tournaments. To qualify for the upcoming tourney, the Buffaloes have to win the Pac-12 tournament. They opened the tourney with a win over Oregon State yesterday and suddenly two more wins after this one seems attainable. A more focused team in a favorable matchup certainly has a solid chance to pull off the upset.
Pass NBA
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +135 over PHILADELPHIA
After the Flyers lost 5-2 in New Jersey on Tuesday, Ilya Bryzgalov had this to say, “I'm just tired of losing ... tired of losing. I have no emotions, nothing to say. Another disappointing loss.” That’s pretty much the sentiment of the entire Philadelphia team as its playoffs chances look dimmer with each passing game. With four losses in its past five games, Philly is 11th in the East and overall, they have fewer points than Columbus. With a defense that is out of position and slower than most, the Flyers offense simply can’t compensate. Ilya Bryzgalov’s save percentage has dropped to .898 and the defense keeps hanging him out to dry. The Flyers, demoralized and playing with very little confidence will now step on the ice again against a team they cannot beat.
New Jersey has defeated Philly in seven straight games while scoring three or more in each one of those victories. In two games against the Flyers this season, the Devils have scored five goals each time. New Jersey comes in back on track, having won three of four with only loss over that span occurring against the Canes in a game they outshot Carolina 34-22. Momentum, talent, confidence, offense and defense all favor the visitor. Throw in the psychological edge the Devils have and the generous offering and it becomes a must play.
Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa Hawkeyes +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Iowa Hawkeyes have inched closer to making the NCAA Tournament thanks to a great run to close out the season. I look for them to likely upset the Michigan State Spartans tonight in the Big Ten Tournament, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.
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Iowa has won three straight and four of its last five games overall while going a perfect 5-0 ATS in the process. Its only loss came at Big Ten champ Indiana 60-73 as a 13.5-point underdog. All four of its wins during this stretch have come by 8 points or more, including three by double-digits.
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Michigan State clearly showed its vulnerability down the stretch this season. It lost three of its final five games with both of its wins coming at home over Wisconsin and Northwestern. The Spartans beat the Hawkeyes 62-59 on January 10th in their lone meeting during the regular season, which clearly places Iowa in revenge mode. It has improved by leaps and bounds since that defeat.
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The Hawkeyes are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall. Iowa is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games following a win. The Hawkeyes are an incredible 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. They have played their best in the biggest games, and this certainly classifies as one of them as they will be fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. Bet Iowa Friday.