DUNKEL INDEX
Belmont vs. Georgetown
The Hoyas look to take advantage of a Belmont team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at a neutral site. Georgetown is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoyas favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-3)
Game 823-824: Lehigh vs. Duke (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lehigh 55.942; Duke 71.623
Dunkel Line: Duke by 15 1/2; 145
Vegas Line: Duke by 12; 148
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-12); Under
Game 825-826: Xavier vs. Notre Dame (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 63.440; Notre Dame 63.439
Dunkel Line: Even; 129
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 2 1/2; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick Xavier (+2 1/2); Over
Game 827-828: Vermont vs. North Carolina (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vermont 56.264; North Carolina 73.585
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 17 1/2;
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 15 1/2; 145
Dunkel Pick North Carolina (-15 1/2); Under
Game 829-830: Alabama vs. Creighton (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 67.399; Creighton 64.702
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 2 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Alabama by 1; 132
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-1); Under
Game 831-832: Long Island vs. Michigan State (9:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Island 55.092; Michigan State 75.868
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 21; 159
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 19 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick Michigan State (-19 1/2); Over
Game 833-834: St. Louis vs. Memphis (6:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 66.477; Memphis 67.360
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 1; 125
Vegas Line: Memphis by 4; 129
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+4); Under
Game 835-836: Belmont vs. Georgetown (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 64.121; Georgetown 69.477
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 5 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 3 1/2; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick Georgetown (-3 1/2); Under
Game 837-838: NC State vs. San Diego State (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 65.261; San Diego State 65.278
Dunkel Line: Even; 141
Vegas Line: NC State by 2; 137
Dunkel Pick San Diego State (+2); Over
Game 839-840: St. Bonaventure vs. Florida State (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Bonaventure 62.360; Florida State 70.805
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 8 1/2; 134
Vegas Line: Florida State by 6 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick Florida State (-6 1/2); Over
Game 841-842: Texas vs. Cincinnati (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 67.204; Cincinnati 67.401
Dunkel Line: Even; 125
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick Texas (+2); Under
Game 843-844: South Florida vs. Temple (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 66.783; Temple 63.813
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 3; 125
Vegas Line: Temple by 3; 121
Dunkel Pick South Florida (+3); Over
Game 845-846: Ohio vs. Michigan (7:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 61.436; Michigan 69.307
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 8; 122
Vegas Line: Michigan by 6; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick Michigan (-6); Under
Game 847-848: Norfolk State vs. Missouri (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 47.473; Missouri 74.766
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 27 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Missouri by 21 1/2; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick Missouri (-21 1/2); Under
Game 849-850: Virginia vs. Florida (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 64.467; Florida 66.131
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Florida by 3 1/2; 121
Dunkel Pick Virginia (+3 1/2); Over
Game 851-852: Detroit vs. Kansas (9:55 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 58.167; Kansas 74.247
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 16; 146
Vegas Line: Kansas by 14 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick Kansas (-14 1/2); Over
Game 853-854: Purdue vs. St. Mary's (7:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 64.389; St. Mary's 64.202
Dunkel Line: Even; 135
Vegas Line: Purdue by 1 1/2; 140
Dunkel Pick St. Mary's (+1 1/2); Under
Game 855-856: Northwestern at Washington (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 63.581; Washington 66.514
Dunkel Line: Washington by 3; 144
Vegas Line: Washington by 5 1/2; 148
Dunkel Pick Northwestern (+5 1/2); Under
Teddy Covers
Belmont @ Georgetown
PICK: Belmont +4
First, let me establish the fact that Georgetown should be on upset alert right here in Round 1. Let’s start with the Hoyas miserable recent track record. They lost in their opening round game to VCU last year in blowout fashion (74-56 as 5.5 point favorites) before VCU had built up their boatload of momentum. John Thompson III’s squad had the exact same result in 2010; a double digit loss as a favorite in their first tourney game, losing 97-83 as 13.5 point favorites to Ohio U. In ’09, they lost their NIT opener to Baylor. In ’08, they were upset as chalk in the second round by Davidson; another loss for the Hoyas as the higher seeded favorite. This track record of failure in the Big Dance is most assuredly a pattern, something we need to consider as the fragile Hoyas get ready for their opener on Friday.
The next step is to look at what caused the Hoyas to lose their eight games this year. The pattern was on full display in each of their last three losses to good, but not great, teams (Cinci, Marquette & Seton Hall). In each of those losses, Georgetown committed more turnovers than they forced, not valuing every possession the way they should. And in each of those three losses, the Hoyas couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn from long range; a combined 12-43 from three point land. Georgetown struggled defensively in all three defeats, whether they were committing an excess of fouls or they were allowing defensive breakdowns for easy looks. All three factors could come into play again here.
Lastly, we’ve obviously got to be sure that Belmont is good enough to pull off the upset – or at least come pretty darn close. The Atlantic Sun Conference champs won 30 games last year and hung tough for most of the game against Wisconsin in their first round NCAA tournament matchup before falling short. In their previous Big Dance appearance, they took Duke to the wire in the opening round, losing by one as 20 point underdogs. The Bruins have four starters back from last year’s tourney team, and won 27 games this season. They took Duke to the wire again in on-conference play, suffering a one point loss in Durham, proving once again their mettle against superior foes. Expect a tight contest that could easily come down to the final possession, not a game where Georgetown can be expected to build and maintain any sort of margin. Take Belmont.
Jim Feist
Timberwolves vs Lakers
Take: Lakers
A tough situational spot for Minnesota, a long way from home and playing the second of a back to back road spot after playing at Utah last night. The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on no days rest. They are still trying to regroup after the killer injury to Ricky Rubio last week, out for the season. The Lakers play their best basketball at home and are rested. The Lakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. And the Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Play the LA Lakers!
Jack Jones
Georgetown -3½
Georgetown gets no love, but this is still one of the best teams in the country. They are a popular choice to be the No. 3 seed that gets upset by a No. 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but I'm not buying it. The Hoyas are showing great value as just a 3.5-point favorite over Belmont.
First of all, history is on their side. Since 1985, No. 3 seeds are 92-16 (85%) against No. 14 seeds. While each year is a new year and each match-up is different, it's certainly worth nothing.
Georgetown went 23-8 this season, which includes impressive non-conference wins over Memphis twice and Alabama. They also beat the likes of Louisville, Marquette, Connecticut, South Florida and Notre Dame in conference play. That's eight wins against NCAA Tournament teams.
Belmont is certainly a good team at 27-7, but their resume is little to be desired. They have only faced two NCAA Tournament teams this season, so their schedule has been easy to say the least. The Bruins lost both of those games, so they don't have one win all season over an NCAA Tournament team.
The Hoyas are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 non-conference games overall. That includes a perfect 6-0 ATS mark against non-conference foes this season. Georgetown is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as a favorite. Belmont is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. The Bruins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Bet Georgetown Friday.
EZWINNERS
Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Miami Heat -3½
The Heat put a twenty point beat down on the Sixers in South Beach back in February and even though I expect this game to be closer, I like Miami to cover this small number. Philadelphia is having a great season thanks to the great defense that they play, but Miami is also a great defensive team and this makes it a very tough match up for a Sixers team that does not have the offensive punch of the Heat. Miami has won nine out of the last ten meetings between these two teams and Philadelphia is just 1-10 against the spread in their last eleven games against a team with a winning record. Lay the points.
Sam Martin
South Florida at Temple
Play: South Florida
We nearly pulled the trigger on South Florida again (we backed them in their dominating victory Wednesday against Cal in their "First Four" matchup), but the quick turnaround with travel made us downgrade the Bulls to a 5* Selection. Still, we think South Florida has an excellent chance of winning outright. South Florida's intense defensive pressure is a unique game style that works very well in tournament play, as teams are not used to playing against it and every possession seems to have twice as much importance. South Florida has now held 11 straight foes to under 40% shooting, and they continue their NCAA Tourney run with another win tonight!
Marc Lawrence
Ohio University at Michigan
Prediction: Ohio University
Don’t get us wrong, we love John Beilein and his moneymaking tendencies (10-2-1 ATS in this tourney, including 5-0 SU and ATS in first-round games) but when a Big Ten team lays a small number to a MAC school, you know the linemakers have worked extra hard in determining the market on this contest: A.K.A. a trap. Remember, those big casinos weren’t built with donations. Our numbers actually make a strong case for the Bobbies. The Wolverines are a surprising 3-5 ATS (1-3 SU and ATS versus .720 or greater) outside of the Big Ten this season and 1-5 ATS in their last six Big Dance appearances as favorites versus .625 or greater opposition. Meanwhile, the Bobcats, led by G D.J Cooper and Clark Kellogg’s son, Nick, are 13-2 SU (losses by 3 and 5 points) and 7-1 ATS outside of the MAC this season, including a perfect 3-0 ATS as dogs. And also remember that the last time we saw the Bobbies in this party (2010), they upset Georgetown as 14-point dogs in the opener. Apparently someone’s dancing with the Wolves (an Oscar winner), but it’s not us. Like Vegas, we’ll bob for our dance ticket. We recommend a 1-unit play on Ohio U.
Rob Vinciletti
South Florida vs. Temple
Play: Temple -3
Temple has better overall numbers and will be able to handle the South Florida defense with their superb ball movement. Consider Temple has won 4 of 6 vs top 50 RPI ranked teams compared to USF who has a 3-9 record vs these better teams. South Florida is 0-4 to the spread with 1 or less day of rest, while Temple is 17-7 vs winning teams and 8-0 off a conference loss and have won the last 9 games vs teams who score 63 or less points per game. Temple has also covered 7 of the last 8 vs the Big East. Look for Temple to advance here.
Bryan Power
Montreal Canadiens @ Ottawa Senators
PICK: Ottawa Senators
This is the second game of a home and home between the two division rivals. Montreal took the first, 3-2 in a shootout. Now Ottawa gets the Habs in their place w/ a chance at revenge. The Sens actually have plenty of revenge coming into this contest, having previously going 0-3-1 against the last place team in their division this season. Ottawa remains in seventh place in the conference and is fifth in league in goals scored. Montreal is a team essentially out of it when it comes to the postseason. They are tied w/ the Islanders for last place in the conference currently and have posted back to back wins just one other time in the last month. The switch in venue & revenge provide all the motivation the home side will need here.
Jimmy Boyd
St. Bonaventure +7
Florida State enters the Big Dance fresh off an ACC tournament title and is being overvalued by odds makers because of it.
The Seminoles play a lot of close games. In fact, two of its three NCAA tournament games in 2011 were decided by 7 points or less. They have some good wins this season but also some bad losses as they don't get up for lower profile teams the same way. The Noles only scored 41 points in a loss to Harvard and also lost to Princeton and Boston College this season.
St. Bonaventure enters the tourney having won 7 of its last 8 SU and ATS, and it has the benefit of playing with nothing to lose.
The Noles have been a poor investment as a neutral court favorite, going just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 in the role. Also, they are just 10-26 ATS all-time under coach Hamilton when entering a contest with 8 or more wins in their last 10 games. They are only winning by an average of 4.2 points in this situation. Bet the Bonnies.
Dave Cokin
Belmont vs Georgetown
Pick: Belmont
I actually like this Georgetown team and prior to the seedings, thought they might be a candidate to make it as far as the Elite Eight. But they drew the wrong matchup here. The Hoyas have one liability and that's ballhandling against pressure defenses. They're going to see that for all 40 minutes here. Belmont has plenty of big stage experience, and in my opinion, they're a legit Top 25 team. I smell upset and I'm taking the points with Belmont.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Georgetown/ Belmont Over 133.5: Another one I had the whole night to sleep on. Belmont comes in 4th in the nation in scoring at 81.4 ppg, plus they also shoot very well 48.1% and they hit their 3s at a 38.1% clip and 73.6% of their FT's. This is a team that can score from all phases of their offense. Granted it is against weaker opponents, but they still have scored 77.1 ppg vs the lined teams on their schedule, including 81 vs Memphis and 76 vs Duke. This team can score on anyone and they won't let this Georgetown defense intimidate them. The Hoyas have allowed just 69.1 ppg overall, but away from home they have allowed 66.6 ppg, including 68.8 ppg in their 5 neutral games. That gives Belmont an excellent shot at hitting at least the high 60's in this one. Georgetown doesn't score a ton, but they have averaged 68 ppg overall and 72 ppg in their neutral games, plus I believe they will get out and run with this team, which should give them extra scoring chances. Belmont has been average on defense this year as they have allowed 67.5 ppg, but 69.8 ppg on neutral courts, and 69.1 ppg in their games vs lined teams this year. This should be a faced paced game with little defense in a game that should reach the 140's with ease.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Florida/ Virginia Over 122: Virginia does not play a ton of games in the 120's, but in their last 3 games (during regulation) at least 122 points have been scored in each game. Virginia does come in averaging 63 ppg overall and 62.5 ppg away from home, but those numbers should increase a bit here as they will be facing a florida team that has really struggled with defense down the stretch as they have allowed 71 ppg away from home, 72.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 68.4 ppg in their last 10 games. Florida's offense did sputter down the stretch, but they have sill averaged 76.3 ppg overall and 70 ppg away from home, while in the SEC Tourney they were able to score 71 and 66 points vs two or the toughest defenses in the league in Kentucky and Alabama. Virginia does play great defense as they have allowed just 53.7 ppg, but down the stretch they did allow 63 ppg in their last 5 games and they have allowed 60 pg away from home, so this high scoring Florida team should be good for somewhere in the mid 60's, while i expect this Virginia team to put up about that as well. Also this should be a close game, which should mean FT's at the end of the game and both teams do hit 71+ % of their FT's on the year. Florida does not want a half court game and I expect them to speed it up a bit and get their points vs this tough defense, while Virginia should have a good time vs a Florida defense that has fallen apart of late. 130+ here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the OVER in a neutral game where the total is between 120 to 129.5, during the 2nd half of the season, in a game involving two teams that have outscored their opponents by 8+ ppg on the year. This play is 42-14 the last 5 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAY
Duke/ Lehigh Over 148: The Blue Devils are not as strong defensively as in years past as they are 220th in scoring defense (68.5 ppg) and 182nd in defensive FG% (43.3%) and today they will be facing a Lehigh team that has been very good at the offensive end of the floor. Lehigh comes in 28th in the nation in scoring at 76.2 ppg and they are are a solid 114th in shooting (44.9%), plus Lehigh is 3rd in the nation in FT shooting (77.6%). This team knows how to put points on the board, but they are also a very average defensive team as they have allowed 65.1 ppg on the year and now they get to face a high powered Duke offense. The Blue devils did struggle in the ACC tourney as tghey averaged just 59.5 ppg in the two games, but this is still a team that has averaged 77.6 ppg overall this year, including an average of 75.5 ppg in their last 8 games of the regular season. I expect the pace to be up tempo here and with both teams having the ability to put 75+ points on the board i will expect this one to hit at least 155.
NC State/ San Diego State over 137.5: The Wolfpack average 73.4 ppg on the year, including 71.8 ppg in their last 5 games. They have really been shooting well of late as they have hit 48.2% of their shots, including 36.1% from long range in their last 5 games. SDSU has averaged a solid 70.1 ppg overall and 73.4 ppg in their last 5 games. They also have been shooting the ball well as they have hit 46.75 of their shots, including 38.8% from long range in their last 5 games. Both teams play an uptempo style and both teams have been playing average defense at best of late and that should make for a bit of a high scoring game in this one. KEY TRENDS--- NC STATE is 12-4 OVER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season, while SAN DIEGO ST is 10-3 OVER after 1 or more consecutive unders this season.
2 UNIT PLAY
Georgetown -4 over Belmont: The Bruins are the sexy pick for a lot of folks and the are a very talented group that lost to Duke by 1 point earlier in the year, but thy are also a team that lost to Lipscomb, Miami (Ohio), and USC Upstate, plus they are just 0-2 vs the RPI Top 25. Belmont is 4th in the nation in scoring at 81.4 ppg, but Georgetown have been very solid at the defensive end this year as they have allowed just 59.2 ppg on 38.7% shooting and they should be able to hold this strong offensive club down. The Hoya's offensively have been a solid bunch as they have averaged 69.1 ppg on 46.35 shooting, which is 58th in the country and Belmont does not play great defense. The Hoyas played in the tough Big East this year and while they are a younger squad than Belmont they are still a more talented team than them. This team may have been very young at the start of the year, but they have grown up and will start what I feel will be a deep tournament run for them with an easy win here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Notre Dame -2.5 over Xavier: Xavier just hasn't been the same team they were at the start of the year after that brawl vs Cincinnati. Xavier does come in winners in 3 of their last 4 games, but since the brawl they have gon just 13-12 overall after an 8-0 start. Xavier did beat St Louis in the A-10 Tourney, but they really looked lethargic in beating Dayton by 1 point and in the loss to St Bonaventure. Xavier finished the regular season with a 10-6 mark in the mediocre Atlantic 10, while the Irish had a fine year in the Big East, going 13-5 in the regular season and while they did go just 2-3 down the stretch they are still the team that won 9 Big East games in a row and with the extra prep time Mike brey will have his team focused and ready to go here. Irish by 7+ here.
North Carolina -15.5 over Vermont: I have the Heels losing in the Elite 8, but I feel they have more than enough to take care of Vermont in this one. The Heels stumbled in the ACC tourney, but they still have blowout capabilities and would like to get off to a good start in the tourney today. I look for them to win by 20+ here.
James Patrick Sports
Belmont vs. Georgetown
The Belmont Bruins utilize the game's great equalizer as well as anyone in the country and have already established themselves as one of the teams you don't want to see pop up in your pairing. The A-Sun champs become Georgetown's nightmare, so it's no surprise shrewd oddsmakers have made the Hoyas a four-point favorite in what screams, trap line. Belmont opened the season losing to Duke, (77-76), and feature three players who have hit at least (40) 3-pointers. One of them, Ian Clark, is a guard who can stand out in any conference in the country. Big Game James Patrick's Opening Round NCAA Tournament complimentary selection is Belmont Bruins .
CRAIG DAVIS
Today's free play is on Temple over South Florida in the first round.
South Florida has three things going for them.
First, they play in the Big East and the media touts them as the best conference in the league every year. Second, they play defense as good as anyone in the country. And third, everyone watched the Bulls dismantle Cal in the "first round" of the Big Dance Wednesday night and now they come into this game as a dog again? Too hard not to take them, right?
Wrong.
It's a nasty trap that I'm not falling for. I have a lot of respect for what South Florida was able to do today, but I'm not sure why they went from an afterthought to a "potential" Elite 8 team in two weeks?
People in the media make me chuckle.
Listen, no disrespect to South Florida, but Temple is a veteran team that plays great defense too, and they play in an underrated conference with plenty of good teams. St. Bonny's made the tourney, Xavier made the tourney, St. Louis made the tourney, and I believe UMass should have made the tourney as well. So let's not write this conference off as a "mid major" just yet, okay?
Lots of early money coming in on South Florida, which makes me believe I might be onto something.
Take Temple as your free play of the day.
4♦ TEMPLE