JEFF BENTON
Your Friday freebie is the Missouri Tigers to demolish the Norfolk State Spartans.
First Big Dance for Norfolk, and while the Spartans may own the size advantage over the Tigers, they definitely do not own the quickness or the back-court edge against the 30-4 Tigers.
This Missouri team is built for a deep March run, as they have four senior starters that just won the Big Twelve conference tournament going away - ALL three wins in Kansas City coming by double-digits.
The Tigers may not possess the size the Spartans have, but Kim English is 6' 6", and Ricardo Ratliffe goes 6' 8", and both played quite well in securing the Big Twelve tournament last week.
The Spartans did well for themselves just to get a ticket to the dance, but you can expect them to play from behind in this game from the get-go. With a pro-Mizzou crowd making their way to Omaha, and a senior-laden team that is eager to send an early message to the remaining dance participants, look for the Tigers to race to a big opening round win and cover.
This game may well be the biggest margin of victory in the first round.
Lay it with Missouri.
3♦ MISSOURI
CHUCK O'BRIEN
Now, let's roll with the Ohio Bobcats as my free winner for Friday, plus the points against the Michigan Wolverines. The 13th-seeded entry out of the Mid American Conference comes in with a 27-7 record overall, after an 11-5 run in conference play, and its spree through the post-season tournament.
So here's the thing, while the Bobcats have a higher scoring offense than Michigan, it's the scoring defense that ranks 57th in the nation that impresses me. Ohio was third in the MAC in allowing 62.4 points per game - behind Eastern Michigan and Ball State - and that won't bode well for the Wolverines, who rank 201st in the country in scoring 66.5 points per game.
True, Michigan's scoring defense is tad bit better - statistically speaking, it allows 61.4 points per game - but the intangibles are so much more impressive with the Bobcats.
Ohio was the nation's fourth-best team in steals per game with 9.4 per contest, its turnover margin ranked fifth in the country at +4.4, it limited teams to 29.6 shooting from long-range and that was 13th-best in the nation.
Now before you start comparing conferences, let's take a look at some of this team's key wins: Lamar, Marshall, Buffalo (twice), Northern Iowa and UNC Asheville. Big names? Not really. But Lamar and Asheville were in the dance. The other three teams, they were significant to the Bulls. And make note, they also played Louisville, losing by only five back in November.
Overall, I'm confident this defense is going to be enough to keep things close against a Wolverines team I expect to play frantic when it cannot penetrate and cannot score, firing at free will from beyond the arc. Michigan attempted 743 shots from beyond the 3-point line this season, the 10th-most nationally. But as a team they only shot 35.2 percent from downtown.
I well aware of the fact Michigan coach John Beilein, who led the Wolverines to a share of the Big10 regular season championship, is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the first round of the dance, but Ohio is on a perfect 7-0 ATS run in non-conference play, and 19-7 overall as an underdog.
I'm taking the points here.
1♦ OHIO
SCOTT DELANEY
At first, last Sunday, I told everyone I spoke to there was no way I buying into the Belmont-over-Georgetown hype, after all, we're talking about the Hoyas from the Big East. The original Beasts from the East. But as the week grew on me, and I started reading more and more, something tells me the 14 seed out of the Midwest Region is as sharp a play you can find. Thus, these Bruins are my free pick for Friday.
Think about this, of all the No. 4 seeds, the Hoyas, at -4, are laying the smallest number. In the West, Louisville opened -7.5 and closed a -5.5 favorite. In the Midwest, Indiana laid -6 to New Mexico State. And later tonight, in the South, Michigan is -5.5 against Ohio. Amazing how much the 14 seeds are getting respect these days, but that's how strong the field is this year.
And I have the utmost respect for this Belmont basketball team, and know what it is capable on the court. This team can fire from downtown, and though that's generally a do-or-die proposition, the Bruins shoot a lot of them, and get very good looks. They're a team that will push the tempo, using full-court pressure to force turnovers to take teams out of a groove by causing them to play erratic basketball. And trust me, they're very good at what they do.
And even though the Hoyas are the No. 1 team in the nation in limiting the three - opponents shoot only 27 percent from beyond the arc - Belmont coach Rick Byrd is experienced enough to know how to handle games like this, and knows how to win them. In 2008, Belmont almost busted up everyone's bracket, leading Duke by a point before a Gerald Henderson layup with 12 seconds left bailed out Coach K's troops.
Since then, they've always been known referred to as "isn't that the team that..." and the completion of the sentence is left hanging on people's tongues. Yes, that's the team. It's also the team that comes into this event 27-7, and opened the season with a one-point loss to Duke.
Georgetown rolls in on ATS dance slides of 1-6 when laying points in this event, and 1-4 in the dance overall. Take the underdog, I'll buy the hype.
1♦ BELMONT
MATT RIVERS
Friday night free play winner is the Washington Wizards plus the points tonight at Atlanta.
The Hawks are back home after a lengthy six-game road swing that saw them go just 2-4 straight up. The road trip ended with losses in their last pair on the highway, and I have a feeling tonight back at home - finally - will see a sluggish Atlanta team that will be able to do just enough to beat back the lowly Wizards.
I suggest taking the points with a Washington team that is fresh off an upset win last night in New Orleans. The Wizards have now covered their last pair and three of their last five overall.
With the Hawks just 9-9 against the spread on their home court this year, plenty of room for a Washington cover for sure this Friday night.
Take the Wizards plus the points.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Friday night free play winner is Notre Dame as the small favorite against Xavier.
Both teams enter playing some pretty mediocre basketball, but I prefer to put my trust in Notre Dame's ability to right their ship in time for tonight's meeting in Greensboro.
The Irish were able to sustain a nine game winning streak in Big East play before finishing up at 2-3 straight up their last five games. I believe they are likely to find their form before the Musketeers who are on a 1-7-1 spread dip their past nine games will.
It is strange, but definitely true that the brawl Xavier got into with Cincy back in December has definitely taken a marked toll, as the Musketeers are only 13-12 straight up since that melee.
The play in the Atlantic Ten was nothing special this season, so I have no issue laying a few points with the well-coached Irish who are looking for an updraft after their 2-3 finish.
Notre Dame was able to come back from double-digits in the Big East tournament against a tough South Florida team before bowing to red-hot Louisville in the semifinals, so I am willing to trust the Irish to deliver the winning points in this opening round tonight.
2♦ NOTRE DAME
Vegas Experts
Detroit Pistons at Phoenix Suns
Play: Detroit Pistons
Some good value here on a Pistons team that has cashed 15 of their previous 20 games. They've also won five of their last seven outright, including a 124-112 win at Sacramento Wednesday night; that's a season high in points by a double digit margin. Detroit is catching Phoenix off an outright dog win last night in LA where they beat the Clippers 91-87. The Suns are 2-7 ATS this year off BB ATS wins. Since the start of last year, Detroit is 14-4 ATS as a road dog of 6 pts or less.
Fairway Jay
LIU Brooklyn vs. Michigan St
Play: LIU-Brooklyn +19.5
The Big Ten’s second best delivered a Fairway forecast winner on these pages Thursday when Ohio State pulled through as a big favorite over Loyola-MD. Now the Big Ten’s best is asked to win big for their betting backers as the Midwest Region’s top seed. Michigan State (27-7) has had a magical season as co-Big Ten champs and conference tournament champions. They are a together team with a star senior leader in Draymond Green inside and a quick, dynamic point guard in Keith Appling. As usual, the Spartans are one of the nation’s top rebounding teams and play superior defense under head coach Tom Izzo. Following a buzzer beater by Ohio State to beat Michigan State in their regular season finale 12 days ago, the Spartans swept through the Big Ten tournament to beat the Buckeyes in the championship game five days ago. That redemption game for all the marbles has to spell letdown to some degree today. The high-scoring Blackbirds (82 ppg) have not played anyone in the Spartans class. But recall that the two-time Northeast Conference champions covered in a 102-87 loss to North Carolina in last year’s opening round of the NCAA Tournament. LIU (25-8) won’t change its style or ways; they rank no. 2 in the nation in adjusted tempo. They also shoot 48% from the field and 37% from the arch, and feature a pair of solid forwards that lead the team in scoring and rebounding. That will help them offset some of MSU’s strength inside. We cashed a ticket with big underdog no. 16 seed UNC Ashville yesterday as they played no. 1 seed Syracuse close and took the Orange to the wire before losing by seven points. And we saw Western Kentucky come in the backdoor against no. 1 Kentucky after trailing by nearly 30. Long Island clearly has that potential if they trail by more than 20, and their run-and gun-style and ability to score should give us a solid shot to cash and deliver the green.
Charlie Scott
Alabama vs. Creighton
Play: Over 133
This Total looks low for a rested Creighton Team that can score, loves to push the pace & run and is bad defensively. Remember that in these Tournament games, it's the end of the season for 1 Team and Nobody wants to give in and go Home, therefore we see alot of coaches hoping for a miracle and Fouling and extending games & scores at the end, although they don't have any real expectation of winning.
Wunderdog
Texas vs. Cincinnati
Play: Texas +2.5
This should be an ugly game to watch, as a pair of very physical teams hit the floor to kick-off Friday Tourney action. There was a lot of speculation of Texas being on the bubble, but a win over Iowa State in the Big-12 Conference Championship sealed the deal, earning them a No. 11 seed. Cincinnati has had some big moments - none bigger than their win over Syracuse, but that was followed by a disappointing loss to Louisville where they scored just 44 points. It marked the 10th time this season that the Bearcats failed to get to 60 points, and the offense has been a liability all season. This should be a close game, and with J'Covan Brown on the court for Texas, he represents the biggest go-to player and the difference maker. The Longhorns are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 as a dog of +6.5 or less, so play on Texas in this one.
Dave Price
St. Louis +3.5
The Memphis Tigers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 non-conference games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Atlantic 10. Fade Memphis.
Steve Janus
Detroit +14
There is a lot of people talking about how Detroit could upset Kansas in the first round. That's highly unlikely, but I do expect this to be a very close game. One in which Detroit loses by less than 10-points.
Detroit is a dangerous bunch on the offensive end. They come in averaging 72.8 ppg on 45.4% shooting. Kansas also puts up some big numbers, averaging 72.8 ppg. That has the total in this game posted at 142.5. The Jayhawks have struggled to dominate teams who can score a lot, as they are just 1-9 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.
Free NCAAB Release for 3/16: Memphis Tigers -3 (-107, 5Dimes) over St. Louis. We'll lay the small number with Memphis today. The Tigers have been on an absolute tear since that first meeting with UTEP on February 18th. They lost that game by two points, and must not have liked the sour taste of defeat. Since then, the Tigers are 7-0 straight up and against the spread, including a 65-47 revenge victory over UTEP. And they're not just winning with lucky bounces, or last minute heroics, they won those seven games by an average of 22.7 points. St. Louis has had a great year at 25-7, but they just don't match up talent-wise with Memphis. The Tigers outscore, outshoot, and out rebound the Billikens statistically. On paper, they don't outmatch St. Louis defensively. But say that six-foot-eight, 240 lb, Memphins Enforcer Tarik Black. St. Louis is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games, including 0-6 ATS as an underdog. They're 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog overall. They're catching a Memphis team in the wrong place, at the wrong time. We'll take the Memphis Tigers -3. *Our free plays are now 180-97-1 all-time. Sign up today at www.iseewinners.com to get all of our free basketball picks via email.
SPORTS WAGERS
Memphis +60-1 to win tournament
There's a wagering term used in boxing and it's called a throwaway bet. Simply put, it's just not worth the money to wager on one of the four top seeds because it just doesn't pay enough. With that said, there is almost always a team or two that surprises and makes it into the Final Four and the Memphis Tigers could be that team this season. They are way under the radar but make no mistake, they're so dangerous too. The Tigers rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage with star sophomore guard Will Barton having connected on 52.5 percent of his team-high 406 regular-season shot attempts. Power forward Tarik Black converted a school-record 68.2 percent of his attempts during the regular season and is a huge factor in Memphis' sometimes sketchy half-court offense. Memphis' efficiency numbers -- both offensively and defensively -- are impressive and its exceptional collection of midsized athletes can't keep a physical opponent off the backboards. The Tigers have been fattening up on a weak roster of C-USA teams. One wonders what will happen when they face a power conference squad in the Big Dance with the athletes to match them but that's the beautiful thing about this wager. Nobody really knows how good they are and while it's absolutely conceivable for them to get knocked out by the Billikens in the first game, it's also very possible that they survive the weekend and than this wager will really pick up steam. The price makes them the most appealing team in the field at long odds. Play: Memphis +6000 (Risking 0.2 units to win 12).
N.C. State -2½ over San Diego State
The Aztecs have been overachieving all season and their draw, N.C. State on the East Coast, is not favorable. SDSU finished the season with eight straight games against weak competition before losing by nine to New Mexico in the conference tournament. There is a price to pay for playing a slew of weak opponents in succession to end the season. The Aztecs are a downright terrible perimeter shooting team (.266 on 3-pointers) and therefore will never be able to shoot themselves back into a game. If they get behind by double digits, they’re in big trouble. Of course you can never count out Steve Fisher’s team because the coach is well prepared with experience in this tournament. However, there’s nothing he can do about being overmatched by a superior team and if the Wolfpack bring it, they should win and cover with ease. NC State won't be awed by the NCAA tournament stage. Mark Gottfried can X-and-O with the best of them, C.J. Leslie is a future pro (maybe even a 2012 NBA draft early entrant), and this team has cut its teeth against Syracuse, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Texas and Stanford, and the always tough ACC while San Diego State was beating the Boise States and TCU’s of the world. This Wolfpack team could truly be a Cinderella story. Early in this event the Wolfpack are under the radar and that provides us a great opportunity to lay a small price before they get picked up on everyone’s scope. Play: N.C. State -2½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Texas +3/+135 over Cincinnati Sports Interaction
Talent wise, give an edge to Texas. In terms of experience, give an edge to the Bearcats. What we really have here however, is an undervalued ’Horns squad against an overvalued ‘Cats team. The Longhorns barely sneaked into this event, as they needed a win over Iowa State to confirm their bid. When the chips were down with everything on the line, Texas responded with that win. That’s a growing process for this hugely talented but young club. It may not have come down to that had they closed out earlier games. Of their 13 losses, eight came by six points or less, thus, those 13 defeats on paper look a lot worse than they were. J`Covan Brown is likely going to be the best player on the floor and if this streak-shooter gets hot, it’ll be one and done for the Bearcats. If he’s off his game, Cinci could still lose because they’re a horrible shooting team and a dreadful free-throw shooting team. They Bearcats had many good wins down the stretch due their tenacity on defense and their ability to force turnovers. That does not hide their flaws of being a poor shooting and rebounding team and a club that is not capable of blowing out the Longhorns. For the most part, Cinci didn’t perform like a 6-seed while the Longhorns are the far more dangerous club. Play: Texas +3 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1) Play: Texas +135 (Risking 1 units).
Missouri -21½ over Norfolk State Pinnacle
Let’s put this one into a little perspective. Unlike many of the small conference representatives that have plenty of talent, Norfolk State is like that old Sesame Street song that starts off with, “One of these things doesn’t belong”. Norfolk is that “thing”. They played in the MEAC conference along with programs like Delaware State, Howard, Hampton, Coppin State and Savannah State to name a few. The MEAC is the weakest group in the country and Norfolk State is the weakest team in the field by a wide, wide margin. The Spartans ranked #296 in turnovers, #246 in turnover margin, and #271 in fouls committed? That was against the 331st worst strength of schedule in the country. How bad must one be to put up numbers like that against a one of the worst schedules in the land? By contrast, Missouri had the 38th toughest schedule. Norfolk State can’t handle the ball, nor are they quick enough to defend against this offensive juggernaut. A lot of you have never seen Norfolk State play. The #16 seeds have fared much better against the number over the past few years but this is one of those old-time #1 v. #16 matchups that regularly saw #16 get whacked by 40 or more. The Tigers should be charged up by a partisan crowd that will make the short drive to Omaha. On their worst day this strong contender should beat this first timer by 30. On an average day they should beat them by 45. This is a mismatch of mammoth proportions so don’t be afraid to step in. Play: Missouri -21½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Ohio +6 over Michigan Pinnacle
Ohio is as dangerous this year as they were last year when they upset Georgetown. Its 27 wins are the most in school history. The Bobcats run a balanced offensive attack which incorporates all of their scorers into the mix. Five players average nine points a game or more. Their steals, blocks per game and offensive rebounds led the MAC. The Bobcats are not a great shooting team but what they lack in scoring, they more than make up in other areas. They’ll play great defense, they’re relentless when going after every loose ball and rebound and they’re capable of frustrating anyone, especially a young and beatable team like the Wolverines. Michigan's starting five resembles a high school team, with one big (6-8 forward Jordan Morgan) surrounded by guards and wings. As a result, the Wolverines are one of the worst rebounding teams in the field, ranking 311th in rebounds per game. Their strength is an offense that creates mismatches with four guards on the floor at once. They also live and die by the triple and that’s a gamble not worth taking. Upsets happen in this tournament every year. They often occur when a team that relies heavily on three-point shooting is having an off game. We’ve seen Michigan have more than its fair share of off games this season and they’re one of those teams that are very vulnerable to the upset. A more sound and reliable Bobcats’ squad gets the call. Play: Ohio +6 (Risking 2.2 units to 2).
Jeff Alexander
Michigan -5
The last time Michigan took the court it was absolutely embarrassed by Ohio State in the semifinals of the Big Ten Conference Tournament. That loss assures us that the Wolverines will be very hungry when they hit the floor today. The Wolverines haven't lost consecutive games all season (8-0 following losses) and have won games after losses by average 10.7 points. Michigan, which is an impressive 31-13-1 ATS in its last 45 games overall, gets the call.
Larry Ness
Ohio vs Michigan
Pick: Ohio
I really like Michigan head coach John Beilein who has taken Canisius (1996) and Richmond (1998) to NCAA tourneys plus got West Va to an Elite 8 appearance in 2005 and then a Sweet 16 one in 2006. He came to a troubled Michigan program in 2007-08 and struggled to a 10-22 first season. However, he’s now led the Wolverines to a THIRD Big Dance appearance in the last four years. Michigan earned a No. 4 seed but gets no bargain of a first-game opponent in Ohio U, which enters fresh off winning the MAC tourney and has already accumulated 27 wins, the most in school history. Michigan is a guard-oriented team, led but co-Big Ten freshman of the year Trey Burke (14.6-3.9-4.6), who leads the team in scoring and assists. Sophomore Hardaway (14.6-3.9) has had an excellent second season in Ann Arbor while senior guards Novak (9.5-4.6) and Douglass (7.6) round out a terrific perimeter group. However, Michigan does not offer much in the way of frontline talent, as the 6-9 Smotryucz (7.5-4.8) and the 6-8 Morgan (7.3-5.5) are no better than serviceable. That being said, Beilein’s confusing defensive zones have wreaked havoc against opponents from Buffalo to Richmond and from Morgantown to now in Ann Arbor. It was just two years ago when these Bobcats, also playing a a ‘lucky’ No. 13 seed, upset Georgetown in the first round of the 2010 NCAAs, 97-83 (as 13 1/2-point underdogs). Point guard DJ Cooper (14.6-3.7-5.7), who this year broke Ohio’s single-season records for both assists (193) and steals (81), was a big part of that win over the Hoyas, scoring 23 points and handing out eight assists (fellow guard Bassett led the way with 32 points). Cooper is joined in this year’s backcourt by Ohio St transfer Offutt (11.7-3.7), Kellogg (8.9) and freshman Taylor (4.7). Ohio U does not own a strong frontcourt but as mentioned, that won’t be much of an issue vs Michigan. A pair of 6-8 players, Keely (9.3-5.1), who comes off the bench, plus Baltic (9.0-5.1), have been Ohio U’s best frontcourt performers this season. However, the 6-7 Hall (3.8-2.0) and the 6-7 Smith (3.7-4.6) have also been useful, especially down the stretch, with Baltic struggling with some nagging injuries. Note that Hall contributed 24 points plus added 13 rebounds in Ohio’s three-game run in the MAC tourney while Smith contributed 13 points and 13 rebounds, as well. The Bobcats realize that the win over Georgetown two years ago, counts for nothing in this one. "We know that's in the past," DJ.Cooper said. “We just know that we've got to beat a better team in Michigan and we have to come out and play hard, and we know that Georgetown, that doesn't even matter anymore.” Here what DOES matter. Ohio enters having won EIGHT of its last nine games and going back to the end of the 2009-10 season, the Bobcats are 18-6-1 ATS in their last 25 games as an underdog. In a Nov 25 meeting at Louisville (earlier this season), the Bobcats (16-point underdogs) led the Cardinals 49-43 with 3:55 left, only to get outscored 16-5 down the stretch in a 59-54 loss. “My Bobcats” can play (I attended Ohio, although school official refuse to acknowledge it!) and I’m taking the points!
Accuscore
Memphis -3 v. St. Louis
This is an 8/9 game, but to be honest Memphis is probably one of the most underseeded teams in the tournament. The resume and talent indicate a team that should have been about two seed lines higher. The AccuScore sim line for this game is -7 giving bettors a 2 possession cushion over the spread. The ATS record in St. Louis games is 13-10 (56.5 percent) and 17-13 (56.7 percent) in Memphis games.
Florida State vs. St. Bonaventure Under 129.5 Points
The Seminoles are one of the best defensive teams in the country, and are a long and athletic bunch. The AccuScore sim total for this game is 128 points with a record of 21-10 (67.7 percent) in Florida State games.
Notre Dame -2 vs. Xavier
The computer sim line for this game is Notre Dame -4. The computer ATS record in Xavier games is 18-9 (66.7 percent) and 14-11 (56 percent) in Notre Dame games.
Michigan State vs. LIU-Brooklyn Under 155 Points
The computer sim total for this game is 151 points. While Long Island made it this far by playing at one of the fastest tempos in the country and getting to the line, that is not a recipe to beat a more athletic talented team especially in a 1-16 match-up. LIU is also one of the shortest teams in the nation and will be trying to deal with Draymond Green, Adreian Payne, and Derrick Nix up front. Spartans should dominate on defense.