Nelly
Oklahoma City - over San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs beat Oklahoma City when these teams met just over a month ago, 107-96 in San Antonio. San Antonio made twelve 3-point shots in that game and also had a big edge at the line. When these teams met in early January in Oklahoma City the Thunder won by nearly the same score 108-96. The Thunder has been a bit erratic in recent weeks with three losses in the last seven games but they have played their best ball against quality teams. The Spurs enter this game coming off a big win over Orlando and the Spurs have not been on the road in over two weeks. San Antonio is just 11-9 on the road this season, with a break even ATS mark as most of the success for the Spurs has been built at home. Oklahoma City had to play in Denver last night, sneaking out a 13-poitn win on the road but this team has fared well in back-to-back games this season. The home team has won the last four meetings in this series and Oklahoma City owns an incredible 18-3 record at home this season. This is a small number and while the Spurs are a formidable foe this looks like a potential flat spot for the Spurs. We'll play the public side in this game and expect the home team to come up big.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Georgetown/ Belmont Over 133.5: Another one I had the whole night to sleep on. Belmont comes in 4th in the nation in scoring at 81.4 ppg, plus they also shoot very well 48.1% and they hit their 3s at a 38.1% clip and 73.6% of their FT's. This is a team that can score from all phases of their offense. Granted it is against weaker opponents, but they still have scored 77.1 ppg vs the lined teams on their schedule, including 81 vs Memphis and 76 vs Duke. This team can score on anyone and they won't let this Georgetown defense intimidate them. The Hoyas have allowed just 59.1 ppg overall, but away from home they have allowed 66.6 ppg, including 68.8 ppg in their 5 neutral games. That gives Belmont an excellent shot at hitting at least the high 60's in this one. Georgetown doesn't score a ton, but they have averaged 68 ppg overall and 72 ppg in their neutral games, plus I believe they will get out and run with this team, which should give them extra scoring chances. Belmont has been average on defense this year as they have allowed 67.5 ppg, but 69.8 ppg on neutral courts, and 69.1 ppg in their games vs lined teams this year. This should be a faced paced game with little defense in a game that should reach the 140's with ease.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Florida/ Virginia Over 122: Virginia does not play a ton of games in the 120's, but in their last 3 games (during regulation) at least 122 points have been scored in each game. Virginia does come in averaging 63 ppg overall and 62.5 ppg away from home, but those numbers should increase a bit here as they will be facing a florida team that has really struggled with defense down the stretch as they have allowed 71 ppg away from home, 72.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 68.4 ppg in their last 10 games. Florida's offense did sputter down the stretch, but they have sill averaged 76.3 ppg overall and 70 ppg away from home, while in the SEC Tourney they were able to score 71 and 66 points vs two or the toughest defenses in the league in Kentucky and Alabama. Virginia does play great defense as they have allowed just 53.7 ppg, but down the stretch they did allow 63 ppg in their last 5 games and they have allowed 60 pg away from home, so this high scoring Florida team should be good for somewhere in the mid 60's, while i expect this Virginia team to put up about that as well. Also this should be a close game, which should mean FT's at the end of the game and both teams do hit 71+ % of their FT's on the year. Florida does not want a half court game and I expect them to speed it up a bit and get their points vs this tough defense, while Virginia should have a good time vs a Florida defense that has fallen apart of late. 130+ here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the OVER in a neutral game where the total is between 120 to 129.5, during the 2nd half of the season, in a game involving two teams that have outscored their opponents by 8+ ppg on the year. This play is 42-14 the last 5 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Duke/ Lehigh Over 148: The Blue Devils are not as strong defensively as in years past as they are 220th in scoring defense (68.5 ppg) and 182nd in defensive FG% (43.3%) and today they will be facing a Lehigh team that has been very good at the offensive end of the floor. Lehigh comes in 28th in the nation in scoring at 76.2 ppg and they are are a solid 114th in shooting (44.9%), plus Lehigh is 3rd in the nation in FT shooting (77.6%). This team knows how to put points on the board, but they are also a very average defensive team as they have allowed 65.1 ppg on the year and now they get to face a high powered Duke offense. The Blue devils did struggle in the ACC tourney as tghey averaged just 59.5 ppg in the two games, but this is still a team that has averaged 77.6 ppg overall this year, including an average of 75.5 ppg in their last 8 games of the regular season. I expect the pace to be up tempo here and with both teams having the ability to put 75+ points on the board i will expect this one to hit at least 155.
NC State/ San Diego State over 137.5: The Wolfpack average 73.4 ppg on the year, including 71.8 ppg in their last 5 games. They have really been shooting well of late as they have hit 48.2% of their shots, including 36.1% from long range in their last 5 games. SDSU has averaged a solid 70.1 ppg overall and 73.4 ppg in their last 5 games. They also have been shooting the ball well as they have hit 46.75 of their shots, including 38.8% from long range in their last 5 games. Both teams play an uptempo style and both teams have been playing average defense at best of late and that should make for a bit of a high scoring game in this one. KEY TRENDS--- NC STATE is 12-4 OVER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season, while SAN DIEGO ST is 10-3 OVER after 1 or more consecutive unders this season.
South Florida/ Temple Over 121.5:(Added) We all know the low scoring games that this South Florida team has played, but they did show in the game vs California that this team does know how to fastbreak some and they will get their chance in this one vs a Temple team that really likes to push the ball. The Owls are a fast uptempo team and not one of their games this year has scpored less than 124 points. In fact just 1 games all year posted less than 129 points, while each of their last 9 games overall have hit at least 137 points. I do not think Temple will allow the pace of this game to be slowed. This team wants to run and they will. Temple averages 76 ppg on 47% shooting overall and 40.1% from long range and I feel that they can score on this South Florida team, especially if they push the pace like they should. The Bulls average under 60 ppg for the year, but they should be able to score in the mid 60's here vs a Temple team that has allowed 69.9 ppg overall and 74 ppg (Regulation) in their last 5 games. This will be more of an uptempo game and and a close one, so FT 's should come into play in the end and both teams hit over 70% from the charity stripe this year. I expect the 130's at least here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Georgetown -4 over Belmont: The Bruins are the sexy pick for a lot of folks and the are a very talented group that lost to Duke by 1 point earlier in the year, but thy are also a team that lost to Lipscomb, Miami (Ohio), and USC Upstate, plus they are just 0-2 vs the RPI Top 25. Belmont is 4th in the nation in scoring at 81.4 ppg, but Georgetown have been very solid at the defensive end this year as they have allowed just 59.2 ppg on 38.7% shooting and they should be able to hold this strong offensive club down. The Hoya's offensively have been a solid bunch as they have averaged 69.1 ppg on 46.35 shooting, which is 58th in the country and Belmont does not play great defense. The Hoyas played in the tough Big East this year and while they are a younger squad than Belmont they are still a more talented team than them. This team may have been very young at the start of the year, but they have grown up and will start what I feel will be a deep tournament run for them with an easy win here.
St Mary's -1.5 over Purdue: (Added) St Mary's did struggle some a couple of weeks ago as they had won just 1 of 4 games, but they are playing very well right now having won 4 in a row, which included a win over Gonzaga in the WCC finals. This is a team that went 27-5 on the year and outscored their opponents by 12.5 ppg in the process. St Mary's can lay with Purdue and hey should win going away.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Notre Dame -2.5 over Xavier: Xavier just hasn't been the same team they were at the start of the year after that brawl vs Cincinnati. Xavier does come in winners in 3 of their last 4 games, but since the brawl they have gon just 13-12 overall after an 8-0 start. Xavier did beat St Louis in the A-10 Tourney, but they really looked lethargic in beating Dayton by 1 point and in the loss to St Bonaventure. Xavier finished the regular season with a 10-6 mark in the mediocre Atlantic 10, while the Irish had a fine year in the Big East, going 13-5 in the regular season and while they did go just 2-3 down the stretch they are still the team that won 9 Big East games in a row and with the extra prep time Mike brey will have his team focused and ready to go here. Irish by 7+ here.
North Carolina -15.5 over Vermont: I have the Heels losing in the Elite 8, but I feel they have more than enough to take care of Vermont in this one. The Heels stumbled in the ACC tourney, but they still have blowout capabilities and would like to get off to a good start in the tourney today. I look for them to win by 20+ here.
NHL Predictions
Dallas Stars -118
The Blackhawks came back on Tuesday for a shootout victory over the Blues. Ray Emery was pulled and gave way to Corey Crawford who stopped all shots he faced for the win. The Blackhawks have won 2 of their last 3, but just 5 of their last 10 games. They are now 38-25-8 on the season and just 14-18-3 on the road. Chicago is 6th in the Western Conference, but just 4 points up on the 9th and 10th place teams. Dallas went with Richard Bachman for the second of a back to back on Wednesday night in Winnipeg, and ended up losing 5-2. The Stars had won 10 of their previous 11 games prior to that loss. It has been almost a month since Dallas has lost in regulation at home (back on February 19th with a 3-2 loss to Nashville). The Stars are 39-27-5 on the season and 20-12-3 at home. Their 83 points is good for 3rd in the Western Conference as they sit atop the Pacific division. Corey Crawford will get the start tonight, and he is winless in his last 3 starts. He was pulled in his last start against the Maple Leafs after giving up 3 goals on 10 shots. Prior to that he was pulled after allowing 4 goals on 6 shots against the Kings. And finally prior to being pulled twice Crawford allowed 3 goals against on 25 shots in a loss to tonight's opponent. On the other side of things Kari Lehtonen has won 5 straight starts, 8 of his last 9 (with his loss coming in shootout), and he has shutouts in two straight games. He stopped all 46 shots faced against the Wild and Ducks in his two previous starts. On the season he is a stellar 29-15-4 with a 2.21 GAA and .925 SV%. The Stars have taken 2 of the 3 meetings between these two teams, including a 2-1 win in their only meeting in Dallas. Chicago has won just 4 of their last 18 road games, and are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs a team with a winning home record. The Stars bounce back well from big losses, going 10-1 in their last 11 games following a loss of 3 goals or more. One loss with their backup goalie isn't going to do much damage to the confidence of this Stars team who has won 10 of their last 12 games. I'll back the Stars at home with the better goalie in net.