Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, March 18,2011

Marc Lawrence

Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves meets the Lakers at Staples Center in Los Angeles with triple revenge on Minnesota's mind tonight. That's good news for Wolves backers as Minny is a mighty 15-5 ATS as a road dog of more than eight points when playing with same season triple revenge exact loss revenge, including 6-0 ATS when facing an opponent off a SU and ATS win. With the Lakers in off a big revenge win over Orlando and 0-3 ATS the last two years in games after meeting the Magic. With that look for the Timberwolves to take home the cash here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.

Tony George

Oakland vs. Texas
Play: Oakland +10

Yes Texas highly ranked and a step up in class, but Oakland is a solid team, #1 in the NCAA in scoring, #2 in FG% and #1 in overall rebounding in the NCAA. I have seen them play in person in Kansas City against UMKC, and they lit them up for 103 points. They have scorers, are a veteran team and if overlooked will bite you in the ass. Texas's offense has sputtered down the stretch, and Rick Barnes is quite frankly a BAD COACH. Oakland won the Summit conference, walked through the Tourney, and are for real. They will give Texas a game here. One of gthe first round scares in my humble opinion.

Info Plays

3* George Mason +1

Reasons why George Mason will cover:

1) Villanova comes in having lost five straight and 10 of their last 15, and we don't think they are just going to turn it on in the tournament. George Mason is a very good team that is showing great value as a 1-point underdog. The Patriots are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall.

2) George Mason is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, and are 10-2 ATS in road games when playing with 7 or more days rest since 1997.

3) Villanova is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, and just 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Jim Feist

Timberwolves at Lakers
Pick: Timberwolves

Minnesota winds up a three-game road trip here and they are riding a respectable 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS run, even losing to the Dallas Mavericks by 3 points. Star center Kevin Love returns to LA, where he played college ball for one-year at UCLA. The Lakers don't always get up to play bad teams and are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Timberwolves are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Los Angeles and the road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Play the Timberwolves!

Red Dog Sports

Hampton / Duke Over 62.5 (first half)

Duke is the #1 seed and playing #16 Hampton in a game in Greensboro, NC. Duke and Hampton should have plenty of fans in attendance. The Pirates of Hampton in the MEAC are used to playing weaker competition and did play a few solid teams this year but no one in the top 100. Several of their games reached above the first half total of 62.5.

Norfolk State 37-33 (70)
Towson 45-35 (80)
NC A&T 43-41 (84)
Col State 39-31 (70)
Md E.S. 33-33 (66)

They are led by Pellum at 17.7 ppg, Morgan at 16.5 ppg and Funches at 11 a game.

Duke could get Kyrie Irving back and he could mess with the timing of the Blue Devils but you have to like the chances for Duke to score quickly vs. lower competition. Duke gets 3's from Smith, Curry, Dawkins and Singler and inside points from the Plumlees and Ryan Kelly.

I think we see a game where 64 or more are scored at half to get over the 62.5. It is worth a one unit play.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Oakland at Texas

Considering the rash of early upsets and close calls we saw on Thursday, there's no reason to believe that 13th seed Oakland, who played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country and holds a victory over Tennessee, can't stay with an inconsistent Texas bunch. The Golden Grizzlies are a perfect 6-0 ATS on a neutral court this season while Texas is just 13-26 ATS when playing with five or six days rest.

Play on: Oakland

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Marquette +2.5

Motivated by a narrow 2-point loss to Washington in the first round of the 2010 NCAA tournament as well as an embarrassing loss to Louisville in its last game, expect Marquette to come ready to play Friday. It can't go unmentioned that the Golden Eagles have been a tremendous investment when catching points. They are, in fact, 16-5 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. It is also worth noting that they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog. In addition, coach Buzz Williams has always had his team extremely well prepared against elite competition since coming to Marquette. Consider that the Golden Eagles are an outstanding 40-26 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record under Williams, defeating these foes by an average score of 73.4 to 70.9. This Marquette squad, which owns wins over West Virginia, Notre Dame and Connecticut most certainly has what it takes to pull off this minor upset. The Musketeers are not the same team that made a run to the Sweet 16 last year. They will miss Jordan Crawford dearly in this tournament. The Musketeers are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. We'll take the points.

Craig Trapp

Marquette vs. Xavier
Play: Marquette +2.5

We have made a ton of money on XU this season but this is a really tough matchup for the Muskies. Marquette plays 5 guards that will rotate and wear down XU. Halloway will carry XU early but the constant up and down game of Marquette too much in the end.

Rob Vinciletti

Marquette vs. Xavier
Play: Xavier -2.5

Xavier fits a SOLID system that pertains to Opening round games with competitive priced games where we have certain favorites off an ats loss vs an opponent that has a win percentage of .690 or less. Xavier has won 8 of 9 off a loss and has a much better record vs winning teams at 15-5 that Marquette does at 7-12 vs fellow winning teams. The Key stat is Xavier is 4-3 vs Top 50 ranked rpi teams and Marquette is just 5-12. The Golden Eagles are also 0-3 against the spread in their last 3 NCAAB Tournament appearances. Look for Xavier to get the win and cover.

Scott Spreitzer

St. Peter's @ Purdue
PICK: Purdue -14.5

The Boilermakers recently suspended Kelsey Barlow for the remainder of the season. This may haunt Purdue on the defensive end later in the tournament, but not against St. Peter's. Those who have been with me for the season have cashed a few tickets with the Peacocks. But the step-up in competition will be too much for the MAAC school to overcome. St. Pete's ranks 316th in scoring, making just 40.4% of their shots, which ranks 309th. The Peacocks don't shoot well from the arc and are a pretty bad FT shooting team making less than 65% of their shots from the charity stripe. A lack of rebounding is the kicker. Purdue has been outstanding on the defensive end all season. And while Barlow is a defensive specialist, as you can see from St. Pete's poor offensive numbers, he will not be missed in this one. Barlow wasn't anything special on the offensive end and his absence shouldn't keep Purdue from topping 70 ppg as they do on a regular basis. The Boilermakers have taken care of business as chalk this season, going 14-7 ATS. Purdue lost by 18 points to Michigan State in the Big-10 tourney, but they have rebounded well from bad losses under Painter, going 14-4 ATS following a loss by at least 15 points. I'm laying the points with Purdue on Friday.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Purdue -14.5

Motivated by a pair of disappointing losses prior to the tournament, including a brutally embarrassing 20-point defeat to Michigan State, expect the Spartans to take out their frustrations on this inferior St. Peter's team today. Purdue is a dominant 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after a loss by 15 points or more. The Boilermakers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more. We'll lay the points here.

Dennis Macklin

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Miami Heat -4½

The Heat just needed to see the Lakers to break five-game schneid and go on run. Actually played well against the Thunder but just couldn't hit a shot as a team. The Hawks are what they are and this year they're 12-21 ATS at the Phillip's Center and 5-10 ATS in L15 vs winning records. The Heat dominate the non-marquee teams and are 8-1 L9 as a road fave of 3-6 points. Expecting sharp effort here as Heat will want to keep B2B losses to a minimum from here on out.

Ray Monohan

Marquette vs. Xavier
Play: Marquette +2½

March Madness East Region bracket match up between #11 Marquette (20-14) vs. #4 Xavier (24-7). Both teams are making their seventh consecutive NCAA appearance as they meet for the 61st time on the hardwood. In this one I expect we'll see a game between 2 teams that play a very different style with the Musketeers using an up-tempo style and jacking up the 3’s while the Golden Eagles are a scrappy squad that likes to slow the pace. The difference makers in this one will be the Golden Eagles 2 top players. As a team Marquette averages 76 PPG behind their 2 top scorers, guard Darius Johnson-Odom and FW Jimmy Butler, both at 16 PPG. The winner meets the Syracuse vs. Indiana St. winner Sunday. Marquette won by 10 2 years ago when these 2 teams last met and I expect more of the same on Friday. Marquette was a better wagering team in 2010/11 going 16-12 ATS while Xavier was only 14-15-1 ATS. Other trends I like for this one include, The Golden Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog, and are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog. The Musketeers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss, and are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.

Brent Brooks

Oakland, Mich +10.5

When the Longhorns have crushed teams this season, its been with their defense. The Grizzlies are simply too stout on offense to allow the Longhorns to run away with this one. A shocking upset is possible but the more likely result is a single digit UT win - possibly a come from behind effort. Keith Benson is an NBA ready beast that will give Barnes team all they can handle. There was a point in the season where Texas was playing the best ball in the country. Those days are a distant memory.

George Mason +100

Villanova ATS this year? 12-17. Constantly under-performing against the number based on lackluster play and a big time reputation to live up to. George Mason is 22-8 ATS this year. They are the better team in this match up and Vegas knows it. This line is banking on Nova money coming in on name recognition.