James Patrick Sports
Spurs vs. Mavericks
Texas Shootout in the Big "D" finds San Antonio posting Over the Total numbers at a (6-1) ATS rate in their last (7) overall and (5-1) ATS in their last (6) on the road. The Mavericks are currently on a (17-6)ATS Over the Total run and Big Game James Patrick's Friday Night NBA complimentary selection is Spurs -Mavericks Over the Total.
EZWINNERS
Texas A&M Aggies -1.5
This should be an ugly, gind it out type of game between the Aggies and the Seminoles. Both of these teams play solid defense and offense is the question mark for both teams. I doubt if FSU's star forward Chris Singleton is fully recovered from the injury that kept him out of the ACC tournament and without him at 100% I don't see the Noles advancing to the second round of play. Mark Turgeon's Aggies do have dynamic playmaker Khris Middleton and forward David Lobeau who are capable of having big offensive games and I believe they will be the difference in this game. Take ATM to the bank.
Matt Fargo
Memphis U vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -5.5
I wasn't sold on Memphis in the C-USA Tournament, which it won, and I'm still not sold despite that. The Tigers winning the postseason tournament means little heading into the NCAA Tournament as it simply showed the lack of quality teams in C-USA and how some can be dominant one night and average the next. Memphis was able to catch a good draw as it caught teams that were coming off stellar performances that were not able to maintain those efforts for a second straight night. Arizona is coming off a heartbreaking loss in the Pac Ten Tournament against Washington but the Wildcats are built to make a significant run in the Big Dance. The Wildcats possess a superstar in Derrick Williams, the Pac Ten Player of the Year, they play great defense and they control the glass. As a matter of fact, the Wildcats finished as the best rebounding team in the Pac Ten and posted a 21-1 record when they won the battle of the boards and Memphis is not a great rebounding team. The Tigers have been one of the top teams in the nation over the last few years but as we see their 12th seeding, it shows a non-quality résumé. Both teams did not grab any wins over top 25 teams this season which may seem like a cause for concern for a favorite like Arizona but the difference here is that the Wildcats are an RPI top 25 team while Memphis is not. The Pac Ten was ranked sixth strongest overall which is definitely not great however there is a big dropoff to C-USA. The major vs. non-major conference sets up a great situation for Arizona. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are from a major conference and coming off a conference loss going up against a team from a non-major conference. This situation is 52-21 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1997. Memphis meanwhile is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following three or more consecutive wins as well as 0-6 ATS in its last six games away from home following four or more consecutive wins. 3* Arizona Wildcats
Telly
1 of 6 Free Picks Today
UNLV -2
Tom Freese
Villanova vs. George Mason
Play: George Mason +2
Villanova is 21-11 straight up this year. The Wildcats are 1-12 ATS their last 13 games overall and they are 2-8 ATS their last 10 Big Dance games. The Wildcats are 7-19 ATS off an ATS loss. Villanova is 0-6 ATS their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. George Mason is 26-6 straight up this year. The Patriots are 10-1 ATS their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Patroits are 8-1 ATS their last 9 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. The Patriots are 20-6 ATS their last games overall and they are 5-2 ATS in the Big Dance.
Dave Price
1 Unit on North Carolina -17.5
UNC is the far superior team in this matchup, and it will be extremely hungry following a poor performance against Duke in the ACC tourney title game. Under Roy Williams, UNC hasn't showed any mercy to inferior competition in the dance. In fact, the Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 NCAA tournament games, winning them by an average of 20.1 points. Take the Tar Heels.
Ray Monohan
Marquette vs. Xavier
Play: Marquette +2½
March Madness East Region bracket match up between #11 Marquette (20-14) vs. #4 Xavier (24-7). Both teams are making their seventh consecutive NCAA appearance as they meet for the 61st time on the hardwood. In this one I expect we'll see a game between 2 teams that play a very different style with the Musketeers using an up-tempo style and jacking up the 3’s while the Golden Eagles are a scrappy squad that likes to slow the pace. The difference makers in this one will be the Golden Eagles 2 top players. As a team Marquette averages 76 PPG behind their 2 top scorers, guard Darius Johnson-Odom and FW Jimmy Butler, both at 16 PPG. The winner meets the Syracuse vs. Indiana St. winner Sunday. Marquette won by 10 2 years ago when these 2 teams last met and I expect more of the same on Friday. Marquette was a better wagering team in 2010/11 going 16-12 ATS while Xavier was only 14-15-1 ATS. Other trends I like for this one include, The Golden Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog, and are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog. The Musketeers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss, and are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
Jack Jones
Atlanta Hawks +6
The Miami Heat are once again overvalued. This team is just 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Heat are getting treated like royalty when they really aren't playing well at all right now. Miami is 5-15 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. The Atlanta Hawks are 20-13 at home this season and should not be this big of a home dog tonight.
The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. Dating back further, Miami is 8-23-2 ATS in their last 33 games following a S.U. loss. This has been a very streaky team all season and with them in a funk right now, it's a good time to fade 'em. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. I see no way the Hawks lose by more than 6 points on their home floor. Take Atlanta Friday.
Bobby Maxwell
Michigan (+1') vs. Tennessee, at Charlotte, N.C.
Tennessee is such an erratic team, another distraction thrown at them on Wednesday is something the Vols didn’t need. That’s why I’ll play a Michigan team that has seemed to find itself over the last month-plus of the season, winning eight of its last 11.
The Wolverines only losses came by one point to Wisconsin, two points at Illinois and by nine at Ohio State. They finished on a 12-1 ATS surge and fell to Ohio State in the Big Ten semifinals 68-61 as 10-point underdogs.
Tennessee lost seven of its last 11 games and now the school’s athletic director has said the “jury is still out” on coach Bruce Pearl remaining as head coach. This team lost to Charlotte, a 10-20 team, in December but also beat the likes of Pitt and UConn. The Vols were knocked out in the SEC’s quarterfinals 85-74 by Florida and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five and 1-7 ATS in the last eight. They are on further ATS skids of 6-13-1 after a loss, 1-6 in non-conference action, 0-6 as a favorite and 1-6-2 as a big dance favorite of up to 6 ½-points.
Michigan has been strong at the betting window, on ATS surges of 21-8 overall, 22-6 as an underdog, 4-1 in neutral site games, 8-2 in non-conference action and 20-8 against winning teams.
The Wolverines are the play here as they will send Tennessee into an uncertain offseason. Go with Michigan.
5♦ MICHIGAN
Craig Davis
Texas-San Antonio vs. Ohio State (-24), at Cleveland, OH
Today's free play is on the Ohio State Buckeyes. Okay, I realize they're laying nearly 24 points, but one of the best ways to figure out if a #1 seed is capable of covering this huge number is to look back at how they did against some of the weaker teams in the non-conference schedule.
Are the Buckeyes capable of beating a team by 25 or more points? Let's examine.
They started the season with a 102-61 win over NC A&T. Immediately following that they went to Gainesville and beat Florida, 93-75.
An 81-41 win over UNC Wilmington would follow the Florida game. They'd also beat UNC Asheville by 37, Tennessee-Martin by 60 and a highly-respected Oakland team by 29.
Are they capable of beating Texas-San Antonio by 25 points or more today? You bet.
I realize the Buckeyes haven't best team in the country at the betting window... but that's what happens when you are a big favorite, week in and week out.
OSU won't toy with the Roadrunners because they want to stay sharp for their next game against either George Mason or Villanova.
Ohio State is bigger and more physical than San Antonio, so they'll clearly have the advantage with Sullinger inside... but it's the play of Jon Diebler and William Buford that's going to put the Roadrunners in a hole early. The Buckeyes shoot over 40% from three-point land both at home and on the road.
It was fun while it lasted for Texas-San Antonio, but that ride stops here today with an 88-58 loss to Ohio State.
3♦ OHIO STATE
Scott Delaney
George Mason (+1) vs. Villanova, at Cleveland
How bad has Villanova gotten over the past month, that's all I want to know?
This might end be the biggest disappointment of the year, seeing its fall from grace.
Today I think the Patriots are going to put the Wildcats out of their misery, and end this dismal run by using the long ball to move on to the round of 32.
George Mason, one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation, should be able to take advantage of a dinged up 'Nova team that has struggled while Corey Stokes and Corey Fisher have been nursing injuries.
Though they'll obviously be healthier than they were last week in the Big East Tournament, it's too late for this team to come around, as I've seen no life in it since mid-January, during an 11-game win streak.
Since then, the 'Cats have lost 10 of 15, including five straight.
George Mason, meanwhile, will be pissed off after seeing its 16-game win streak snapped in the Colonial title game, against VCU. It'll use a frenetic pace to disrupt 'Nova, forcing turnovers and running in transition while taking the 'Cats out of their game.
Take the slim dog.
1♦ GEORGE MASON
Michael Cannon
Marquette vs. Xavier (-2'), at Cleveland, OH
Take Xavier as the small chalk against Marquette in the first round of the East Regional.
I just can’t go against the experience of the Musketeers here. Xavier has fared extremely well in the Tournament, going 14-2-1 SU in its last 17 appearances. The Musketeers have made it to the Sweet 16 three straight years and I expect that to carry them here.
Xavier is led by A-10 player of the year Tu Holloway. He is the “X” factor for the Musketeers. Marquette may be a high-scoring team itself, but it doesn’t have a player that can match Holloway’s skills.
Marquette has troubles on the defensive side and I expect Holloway to exploit them.
Take Xavier minus the points for the win and cover.
3♦ XAVIER
Chuck O'Brien
Florida St. vs. Texas A&M, at Chicago
Now for Friday’s second of two complimentary selections from the Big Dance – which follows Thursday's easy free winner on Gonzaga – play the UNDER in the Florida State-Texas A&M Southwest Regional matchup.
This game features the second-lowest total of the day’s 16 games, and rightfully so, because both the Seminoles and Aggies are similar stylistically. First, neither team is particularly strong in the shooting department (Florida State shoots 43.6%; Texas A&M 44.4%) and neither has much of a perimeter game (Florida State is 33% on three-pointers; Texas A&M 33.8%). Additionally, both are average at best from the free-throw line (Florida State at 66.3%; Texas A&M slightly better at 70.4%).
On the defensive end of the court, though, both teams shine. The Seminoles hold opponents to 62.3 ppg, 36.4% shooting overall and 30.1% from the three-point arc, while A&M’s corresponding numbers are 61.5 ppg, 41.2% and 31.7%.
Both were predominantly “under” teams this year (combined 28-21-1 to the low side), with Florida State remaining low in four of its last five games (including a 52-51 loss to Virginia Tech in last Friday’s ACC tournament) and the Aggies falling short of the number in four of their last six (and those four “unders” had combined point totals of 108, 109, 115 and 120).
Beyond that, the Seminoles are riding “under” streaks of 22-6-2 in neutral-site games, 13-3-1 as a neutral-site underdog, 39-15-1 following a loss and 9-1-1 when playing on Fridays. Texas A&M counters with “under” runs of 5-2-1 at neutral sites, 5-0-1 as a neutral-site chalk, 12-4-1 as a favorite anywhere, 12-3-1 in non-league action, 12-3 following a loss and 8-3 when playing on Fridays.
Baring overtime, this one should come up way short the number, as I’d be surprised if the winner has cracks 60 points.
3♦ UNDER
Michael Cannon
Florida State vs. Texas A&M (-1), at Chicago, IL
Take Texas A&M as the slight favorite against Florida State in the first round of the Southwest Regional.
The big question for Florida State is the status of star forward Chris Singleton, who missed the last six games with a fracture in his foot. He’s questionable for this game, but even if he does go you have to wonder how effective he’ll be.
The Seminoles are 3-3 SU in his absence but I don’t see them getting past the Aggies here. With or without Singleton.
Texas A&M can rely on B.J. Holmes, who can light it up from the perimeter. When he’s on, it opens things up in the middle for Khris Middleton and David Loubeau.
Texas A&M has played highly-ranked Texas and Kansas four times in the last two months, so it won’t be intimidated in this matchup.
Besides, the Aggies have won their tournament opener the last five seasons.
Take Texas A&M to get it done here.
3♦ TEXAS A&M
Karl Garrett
St. Peter's vs. PURDUE (-14') - at Chicago, IL
G-Man smelling blowout at the United Center this Friday night.
Forget the fact the Boilermakers dropped their last 2 games, this one is all about Purdue and their upperclassmen heavy rotation from the Big 10 taking down a team that finished the regular season in the MAAC in 4th place.
Hats-off to St. Peter's for winning the conference tournament, and they do have a stingy defense that is keyed by 4 senior members of their own, but it should be pointed out that 8 of the Peacocks 13 losses this season have been by a dozen points or better. When they lose, they lose big!
JaJuan Johnson was the Big 10 Player of the Year, and I don't see anyone on St. Peter's that is going to be able to contain him. Throw in the veteran backcourt of Moore and Lewis, and add that to the fact the Boilermakers figure to have most of the crowd behind them in nearby Chicago, and this one turns into a Boilermakers steam-roll.
No issue with the double-digits tonight, lay them with Purdue!
4♦ PURDUE
Derek Mancini
VCU (+6) vs Georgetown at Chicago, IL
I'm looking at Virginia Commonwealth to challenge Georgetown. This is a tougher match up than most bettors are anticipating, because the Rams are not only brimming with confidence following their lopsided win over USC, but also happen to matchup relatively well with this Hoyas squad.
Jamie Skeen is the key to this contest, because unlike years past the Hoyas are vulnerable in the frontcourt. Skeen is a do-everything type player, can post, can shoot, can rebound, and can block shots. The offense runs through him, and for as much credit as USC's frontcourt got Wednesday, it was Skeen and Rams who owned that match up. Hoyas most active defensive player, Julian Vaughn, is also their most foul prone (88 personal fouls), and as we saw vs Connecticut, he can be removed from the gameplan with a few costly fouls. (Note: he played only 12 minutes and did nothing versus UCONN due to foul trouble). Look for Skeen to take advantage of his foul prone ways.
In the backcourt, the return of Chris Wright is huge, no doubt, but let's not get carried away. You simply cannot attribute ALL the Hoyas problems to his absence - that's an 'effin copout. The Hoyas have plenty of issues, and you don't average 53 ppg on 37% shooting over your L5 games just because one player is injured! Sorry, but again, that's a total copout... Other players should have stepped up, and they didn't.
One last thing to consider: for an offense that's struggling, having this many days off cannot be a good thing. You can only practice so much, and unlike the Rams who should be rocking and rolling from the get-go, the Hoyas will need some time to shake off the rust, and that especially includes Wright. Long story short, Hoyas likely win SU, but covering the number against a feisty, now confident Rams team is another story entirely. Take VCU plus the points over Georgetown Friday.
3♦ VCU
Joel Tyson
VCU (+5') vs. GEORGETOWN - at Chicago, IL
I like the VCU Rams to give Georgetown all they can handle at the United Center.
You know the Rams are feeling good about holding the Southern Cal Trojans to just 46-points in their Wednesday night upset win to get here, and you know the Hoyas are feeling a little tight as they enter the Big Dance with no momentum at all, losers of their last 4 games, and 6 in a row against the spread.
The good news for Georgetown is they are expected to get back guard Chris Wright, but the bad news is just how much can they expect from him, as he hasn't seen live action in almost a month.
The Rams are on a 6-2 spread run when catching points, and 7-4 for the season as the dog.
Points work again tonight, as Georgetown's confidence has got to be a little shaken coming into this tournament.
4♦ VCU
Scott Delaney
Vcu (+5') vs. Georgetown, at Chicago
So much for not belonging in the dance.
On the contrary, the Rams, appear to fit in nicely with this field, after handling Southern Cal the other night, and moving on to the second round against Georgetown tonight.
Just as they were the other night for the Trojans, I suspect the Rams will be formidable foes for G'Town tonight, using their superior athleticism and three-point ability to challenge for this outright win.
I understand Georgetown expects Chris Wright back on the floor, but I have to wonder if it's too late to blend him back in at this point. Wright suffered a broken bone in his left hand Feb. 23, and the Hoyas were 0-4 without him.
It's going to take a stellar effort from Georgetown's backcourt, because I can assure the Rams will catch fire from the field.
Some might believe the Hoyas are at an advantage, by catching a tired opponent that just played a couple nights back, but I'm not buying into that, as Virginia Commonwealth brings plenty of experience into this game and should be able to keep it close.
3♦ VCU
Chuck O'Brien
Memphis vs. Arizona (-5'), at Tulsa, Okla.
Now for Friday’s first of two complimentary selections from the Big Dance – which follows Thursday's easy free winner on Gonzaga – go ahead and take Arizona as a favorite over Memphis in West Regional action.
I’m not one to overreact to a single result – in fact, I’m usually just the opposite. That said, UAB’s pathetic performance against Clemson in Tuesday’s play-in game raises serious red flags about the quality of Conference USA this season. UAB was the regular-season C-USA champ and yet didn’t even belong on the same floor with an opponent that was the fourth team to earn a bid out of the weak ACC.
True, Memphis defeated UAB twice in the regular season, but one was a three-point overtime win (on the road) and the other a four-point home win, so it’s not like much separated those two squads this year. And while the Tigers have won their last three games only one (a 76-56 rout of East Carolina in the conference tournament semifinals) was impressive. The others were a five-point home win over Tulane, a three-point tourney win over Southern Miss and a one-point win at UTEP in the tourney title game.
Also, prior to this four-game winning streak, the Tigers had lost three of four, with a 15-point loss at Rice (which went 5-11 in Conference USA), a 27-point loss at UTEP and an 11-point loss at East Carolina (8-8 in Conference USA).
Meanwhile, Arizona won the regular-season Pac-10 title and would’ve followed that up with a tournament crown if not for a late-game meltdown that sent Saturday’s championship game against Washington into overtime (where the Wildcats lost on a buzzer-beater). Prior to Saturday, Arizona had won 15 of 18, including four in a row.
The Wildcats are the much more experienced team – of Memphis’ five leading scorers, four are freshmen, including the top three – and in 6-foot-8 forward Derrick Williams (an NBA prospect who averages 19.1 points and 8.1 rebounds per game), Arizona has a weapon that the Tigers can neither contain nor counter. Yes, Arizona has failed to cover in four straight games as a favorite, but it was a double-digit chalk in three of those games.
Here the Wildcats – who are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Tournament games, including 4-1 ATS as a favorite – are laying a very reasonable price against a young Memphis squad that’s 7-20 ATS in its last 27 non-conference games and one that’s probably a year away from making any Big Dance noise.
3♦ ARIZONA
Karl Garrett
Miami (-4') at ATLANTA
Well aware that Miami did drop another game to a winning team on Wednesday night at home to the Thunder, but I certainly don't feel this Atlanta Hawks team is going to give the Heat any worries tonight - even in Atlanta.
The Hawks have shown me absolutely no energy, and no heart of late, as they were just run over at home on Wednesday by the visiting Denver Nuggets. That means Atlanta is now a 2-5 straight up and against the spread slide their last 7 games, and the Hawks have also failed in 7 of their last 10 games played at the Philips Arena.
Miami did lose in overtime to Atlanta in the middle of January at home, so consider this visit to the A-T-L a payback of sorts for Wade, James, Bosh and Company.
Prior to that January setback, Miami had won and covered the previous 4 series showdowns.
G-Man rolling strong with the Heat to hand the gutless Hawks another loss.
5♦ MIAMI
Derek Mancini
NY Knicks at DETROIT (+3)
Let me start by saying I'm keeping this play small, but fact of the matter is this line makes absolutely no sense. This is exactly the kind of line I like to see in the NBA because it immediately sends up red flags, and is worth analyzing.
Why are the NY Knicks, a public darling, only favored by 3 points against a bad Detroit team that will be without Richard Hamilton? I mean the Knicks are coming off a game where they hit 20 3-pointers, and have averaged almost 110 ppg over their L5 games... So again I ask: why are they only favored by this much here? Seems too good to be true, and you know what, it definately is.
Saw good things from Detroit against the Raptors, and no surprise, it came when they finally got to use what is widely considered their best starting five. Obviously the absence of Hamilton will hurt, but Stuckey is good enough to pick up the slack. Love what I'm seeing from Greg Monroe and Tayshaun Prince of late, as both players have really picked up their play. Ben Gordon will also be getting some extra minutes in Hamilton's absence, which is a good thing as far as I'm concerned.
Knicks meanwhile have been having issues getting motivated for teams with losing records, and I see the same thing happening tonight. Losses to the Cavs (twice) and Pacers (twice) since the trade are tough to ignore. Not to mention, its clear this Knicks team took a major step backwards in the defense department with the acquistion of Anthony. The fact their allowing 111 ppg over their L5 games only strengthens my point.
Bottom line, although we're keeping this play small, I say this line speaks volumes about what the oddsmakers think of the Knicks. They are defensively inferior and lack the motivation to beat bad teams... Both issues will be front and center tonight, as the Pistons are coming off a confidence building win and should come to play tonight at home. Take Detroit plus the points over the NY Knicks Friday.
1♦ DETROIT
Bobby Maxwell
San Antonio (+2) at DALLAS
For my comp selection, neither one of these two Texas teams has been particularly sharp lately with the Spurs coming in off a 110-80 blowout loss at Miami while the Mavericks come in having lost four of their last seven. I’m looking for a well-rested San Antonio team to come in motivated and win this one outright.
The Spurs haven’t played since that Monday contest at Miami and they really didn’t show up for that one either. They were dominated in every facet of the game and have been sitting around for three days thinking about it.
Dallas beat Golden State on Wednesday but the Mavs trailed by 18 points before rallying to score the road win. It snapped a two-game losing streak, including their last home game when they fell to the Lakers 96-91 as one-point ‘dogs. Dallas has lost two of its last three at home and they are on ATS skids of 2-5 as a favorite, 2-6 overall, 1-6 against Southwest Division rivals and 1-4 against winning teams.
The Spurs are on positive ATS streaks of 7-3 as a road ‘dog of up to 4 ½ points and 9-4 after a straight-up loss. They are also 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Mavericks, including a 99-93 win in Dallas on Dec. 30, cashing as 3 ½-point favorites.
Today, I’ll grab the points with the Spurs.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Stephen Nover
Minnesota at L.A. Lakers
My free selection in the NBA is the Timberwolves and Lakers to go under the total.
It's easy to think offense when the subject of the Los Angeles Lakers comes up with Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol.
But the Lakers have been playing outstanding defense lately following some recent defensive tweaks and Andrew Bynum being a force in the middle. The Lakers are giving up an average of 86.1 points in their last eight games.
The Lakers should be primed for another strong defensive effort having been idle for four days. Their opponent is the Minnesota Timberwolves whose coach, Kurt Rambis, is a former Laker assistant and a close friend of Phil Jackson and Bryant.
Jackson has gone out of his way not to embarrass his buddy and his pathetic team. The under has cashed the past six times the Lakers have hosted the Timberwolves. Not one of the last eight meetings between the two clubs has gone over the total.
Bryant and Lamar Odom have made sure the Lakers don't run up a score on Rambis not pushing that hard to score easy transition points since the Lakers easily dominate the Timberwolves in all facets. The Lakers are content to play more half-court and slow down against Minnesota.
This is an expected blowout, which means a lot of the Lakers' reserves should play extra minutes. Most of these guys are more about defense than offense. The Lakers host Portland on Sunday in a much bigger game so there's no reason for Jackson to play Bryant and Gasol extensively in this matchup even though they are well-rested.
The Lakers are 12-5 under in their last 17 games at Staples Center when meeting a foe with a losing road mark.
2♦ MINNESOTA/L.A. LAKERS UNDER
Black Widow
1* on Timberwolves/Lakers UNDER 201
The Lakers and Timberwolves have met up since the All-Star Break. In that meeting, the Lakers won 90-79 for 169 combined points in Minnesota. We look for another low-scoring affair tonight in L.A. in a game where odds makers have clearly inflated this total. The UNDER is 7-1 in Lakers last 8 games overall with combined scores of 188 points or less in all eight games. Looking at this trend, we are getting about 13 points of value tonight with this 'under'. The Lakers are 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 201 points here.
OC DOOLEY
Akron versus Notre Dame Under 137
This total actually has a connection to one of last night's Network-TV games where CBS chose to show a wide audience a contest between a pair of small conference squads (Wofford and Brigham Young) due to the popularity of the nation's leading scorer Jimmer Fredette. Since he operates out of the Mountain West Conference which does not have an ESPN contract, Fredette for the most part has been relegated all season to highlight shows. With his rare national appearance last night it came as no personal shock that the Brigham Young contest ended up staying well UNDER what was an "inflated" total and we have a similar situation this afternoon. The over/under figure for this tilt has been rising from an opening figure of 135' points due in part to the fact that Notre Dame has a very high national ranking (#8) in three-point long range shooting. Last time we saw the Fighting Irish was in a high scoring 83-77 overtime shootout against Louisville in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament. For the entire season Notre Dame is averaging a healthy 76 points per game led by Ben Hansbrough (Big East Conference Player of the Year) who is filling the hole to the tune of near 19 points per pop. In the most recent eleven outings, the oddsmakers have not been able to post a total that is high enough as Notre Dame has played above the spot at an 8-1-2 clip. However there is a good reason why today's total opened relatively low as Akron this past Saturday in a conference championship setting held UNDER the spot (137) even though extended into overtime of what resulted in a 66-65 contest. It is interesting to note that this campaign Akron has gone 3-0 UNDER when the posted total has been either 136-or-137 points. In the past three years Notre Dame is a whopping 15-5 UNDER the number in "neutral court" setups such as this where the defense has given up on average 62 points per contest
Charlie Scott
Villanova vs. George Mason
Play: Villanova
The NCAA Tournament, especially the first round has become a public square event much like the NFL Playoffs. In the old days Villanova would have been a 6-7 point favorite vs George Mason. Today everyone has George Mason circled as a Cinderella, much like Belmont vs Wisconsin Yesterday. My thinking is that Villanova is still a quality team with talent that is Big East battle tested and we're getting them at a very good price vs a team from the Colonial conference. Value doesn't always win, but will pay off in the long term in square events.
Rocketman
Hampton vs. Duke
Play: Hampton +23.5
Hampton is 6-0 ATS this year in all neutral court games. Hampton is 5-1 ATS this year in non-conference games. Hampton is 8-1 ATS this year in all tournament games. Duke is 2-8 ATS since 1997 as a neutral court favorite of 18 1/2 to 24 points. Hampton is allowing only 62 points per game overall this year and 61.6 points per game on the road this season. I'm looking for a low scoring game which gives the huge underdog an advantage of covering. We'll recommend a small play on Hampton today!