Wunderdog Sports
Villanova vs. George Mason
Play: George Mason +1.5
Villanova opened the season looking like they were ready to elevate to a Final Four contender. The Wildcats were 16-1 until they went to UConn and were bitten late by a Kemba Walker jumper. It has been a steep downward fall for this team since that 16-1 start. The Wildcats have followed by going 5-10, losing their last five. George Mason has grown with the season and peaking at the right time. The Patriots are the inverse of Villanova at 16-1 in their last 17. Nova continues to be overrated and are a dismal 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games, while the Patriots enter at 10-1 ATS in their last 11 against a winning team. George Mason has an NCAA Tourney pedigree, so I'll play on George Mason to cover.
Sean Murphy
Illinois @ UNLV
PICK: UNLV -2
Illinois finds itself in the NCAA Tournament thanks to a strong non-conference resume, that saw the Illini beat North Carolina and Gonzaga and take Texas to overtime.
The problem I have with this team is that it hasn't played its best basketball in months. In fact, Illinois' last truly impressive win came way back on January 2nd against Wisconsin.
Since January 11th, the Illini have gone 6-10 SU and 7-8-1 ATS. It's not as if the Big Ten was a powerhouse conference this season, yet they still struggled their way to a 9-10 record, culminating with a 60-55 loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament last weekend.
UNLV enters this tournament with an ugly 13-18 ATS record, but much of its trouble came as a large favorite. The Runnin' Rebels haven't lost many games, only eight in 32 tries in fact. Unlike the Illini, who really struggled away from home (5-11 SU), the Rebels went 12-4 SU outside of Sin City.
I like the fact that UNLV heads into this tournament playing some of its best basketball. The Rebels won their final five regular season games, and then crushed Air Force in the Mountain West Conference tournament before falling on a last-second shot against San Diego State, a two-seed in this tournament. UNLV has gone 4-2 ATS over its last six contests.
The Rebels also turned in a strong showing in non-conference play, beating the likes of Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, and Kansas State. They were just never able to get over the hump against MWC powers BYU and San Diego State, leading them to an eight-seed in this tournament.
Illinois doesn't exactly have a strong track record here in the NCAA Tournament recently, having lost in the opening round in its last two trips - falling to Virginia Tech in 2007 and Western Kentucky in 2009.
There's no denying the talent is there for this Illini squad to succeed, but that just hasn't been enough throughout what has been a rather disappointing season. Look for Illinois to get outworked by a gritty UNLV squad, and make another early exit from the NCAA Tourney on Friday. Take UNLV.
David Chan
Phoenix Coyotes @ Vancouver Canucks
PICK: Vancouver Canucks
I bet value where I see it and believe the Vancouver Canucks will bury the visiting Phoenix Coyotes tonight.
The Canucks have taken the last two games vs. the Coyotes, both in Phoenix, but did lose 3-2 at home back on November 21st.
Although Phoenix enters this contest having won four straight, I believe it will be a bit sluggish tonight after yesterday's 3-1 victory in Edmonton; the Coyotes were in fact "lucky" to skate away with the victory there, as they were outshot 36-17 (note that the Coyotes are 2-7 [-6 units] after playing three consecutive road games).
Vancouver is rolling right now and clinched its third consecutive division title with its 4-2 victory over the Avalanche on Wednesday:
“That’s a goal we set before the season,” said Henrik Sedin, who had two goals. “To win it this early feels good. We’ve got more goals going forward here so we can’t sit on it.”
The Sedin's are riding a seven-game point streak (note that Vancouver is 26-12 [+9.4 units] when playing against a team with a winning record).
Good line value here for a highly motivated home side!
Teddy Covers
Minnesota @ L.A. Lakers
PICK: Under 201
The Lakers are not pushing the pace against anybody these days. LA is 7-1 to the Under in their last eight games, playing one slow tempo game after the next. Phil Jackson’s squad has been held under 100 points seven times in their last eight games, but they are also 7-1 SU during that span – the Lakers slowdown strategy is paying dividends.
LA and Minnesota have been playing slower paced games since former Laker and longtime Phil Jackson assistant Kurt Rambis got the T-wolves head coaching job. When these two teams met earlier this month, we saw a 90-79 final score, staying a whopping 36.5 points under the total.
This is nothing new or different in this series. LA and Minnesota have played seven consecutive Unders dating back to the ’08-’09 campaign. Three of their last four meetings have stayed Under 190 points. With Minnesota trending Under as well (the T-wolves scored only 77 points at defense-less Golden State earlier on this road trip), expect another relatively low scoring contest tonight. 2* Take the Under.