Matt Fargo
SIENA vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue -4
When the matchups came out on Sunday night, one team that stood out to me was Siena. This is a very veteran team that has won in the tournament before. In 2008, the Saints defeated Vanderbilt by 21 points before losing to Villanova. Last year, they defeated Ohio St. in overtime before falling to Louisville. My opinion changed once the lines came out a few hours later however. I expected Siena to be catching at least eight points against Purdue but the number came out anywhere between 3.5 and 4.5 depending on the shop. As of Tuesday morning, the number sits at 4 pretty much across the board and this is a huge overreaction to the Purdue situation. The Boilermakers lost Robbie Hummel for the season back on February 24th against Minnesota and he is no doubt a huge loss which likely takes Purdue out of making any sort of big run during this tournament. There was talk of a possible number one tournament seed before Hummel went down and his absence was definitely taken into consideration when these seedings were announced. It did not help that the Boilermakers lost to Minnesota by 27 points in the Big Ten Tournament but I still think the seeding is a spot lower than it should be. This is still a very solid team that returned four other starters from last season and it will be up to center/forward JaJuan Johnson to pick up the slack in the post. The frontcourt was thin to begin with and it is even thinner now but the matchup here should not matter much. The backcourt is loaded and this time of year, a solid backcourt is key to making a tournament run. E'Twaun Moore is the only double-digit scorer up top but the depth of the backcourt more than makes up for the lack of another viable scorer. Purdue has a 1.28 assist/turnover ratio and the top three guards are all hitting better than 72 percent from the free throw line, another huge advantage. Taking nothing away from what Siena did this season, but it is lucky to be here. It won in overtime over Fairfield in the MAAC Championship thanks to a big second half comeback and after two years of NCAA Tournament upsets, it will not be sneaking up on anyone. The Saints defeated no other notable team this season as it went 0-4 against other tournament teams. Siena is once again going to be a public choice but the value clearly lies on the favorite. 3* Purdue Boilermakers
Hollywood Sports
Cal-Santa Barbara at Ohio State
Prediction: Cal-Santa Barbara
UC-Santa Barbara (20-9) has two bombers from long-range that can keep them in the game with Ohio State. James Nunnally and Orlando Johnson shoot 46.5% and 39.6% respectively from behind the arc. The Gauchos are playing confident ball after winning nine of ten games to win the Big West Conference Tournament. They relish this role now as they have covered their last four games as an underdog. And the atmosphere should be fine for them as they have covered four of their last five games on a neutral court. Ohio State (27-7) devastated Minnesota in the second half on the way to their 90-61 win to seize the Big 10 Tournament Championship. But the Buckeyes have failed to cover their last four games after a win of at least 20 points. Ohio State had some close scares in the Big 10 tournament before that explosion -- in fact they have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games before that outburst. And OSU has failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games when favored by at least 13 points. The Gauchos can play some defense as they hold their opponents to just 41.8% shooting. Cinderella? Take the points with UC-Santa Barbara.
Sean Higgs
Cornell vs. Temple
Play: Temple -3.5
Taking the Owls here. Temple HC Fran Dunphry won't overlook Cornell. In fact he spent a lot of time beating up on them while at Penn. Dunphry's bunch went 30-4 vs Cornell.
Craig Trapp
Vermont vs. Syracuse
Play: Syracuse -16
This spread is off by at least 5 pts. Syracuse loses two tough losses otherwise they are the top seed in the whole tourney. SYR can score 85 plus verse the Big East talent you know they will score even more verse Vermont. Vermont is up against it at every position. SYR has all things needed to win it all and this team will be out to show everyone they are back on top of their game. Three point shooting is always key in big spreads like this and SYR can really light it up from downtown. No way this one is not a 30 pt win!
Marc Lawrence
Cornell at Temple
Play: Cornell
Another 12 versus 5 matchup with upset implications. Big Red returns all five starters from last year?s 21-win NCAA edition and has done some serious damage this season. Of their four losses, one came against top-ranked Kansas and two were against Big East foes. Their only bad loss was at Penn, where they have dropped 18 of their 20 previous visits. Sure, the Ivy League has laid an egg in this tourney, going 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS since 1999, but this Cornell squad is heads and shoulders above any of the aforementioned pretenders. Don?t let this little tidbit slip by: the Big Red is 7-5 SU and a super-smart 11-0 ATS when matching wits with Atlantic10 teams. And the A-10 is exactly where the Owls nest. Temple, the No. 2 team in the land in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (37.7), is riding a 10-game win streak and is 20-0 SU versus .714 or less opposition. However, Cornell is 27-4 on the season ? good for an .870 win percentage (one of their players figured it out). Fran Dunphy?s Owls are a solid but vulnerable 9-4 SU when facing greater than .714 foes this season. They?re also 0-5 SU in this event over the last 17 years when facing .866 or greater competition. We realize Dunphy has never lost a game to a former assistant coach but we have a feeling Cornell HC Steve Donahue is about to outsmart this wise old Owl. Temple is one-and-done for the third straight year!
Lee Kostroski
Louisville @ California
PICK: California +1
The Cards continue to be over rated and they are actually favored in this match up. They shouldn't be. While the Pac 10 was down this year, Cal was clearly the best team in the league and have been downgraded because of the anti Pac 10 talk. This team has improved their numbers on both sides of the ball this year, yet they are an 8 seed where as last year they were a 7 seed.
Louisville did beat Syracuse twice this year, but that's about it. This team was all over the board and extremely inconsistent. Their second win over the Orange was somewhat expected on Senior night and it was the final game ever played in historic Freedom Hall. The emotions were running high and the Cards took advantage with a win. Sandwiched around that win was a 21-point loss to Marquette and a 3-point loss to an NIT bound Cincinnati team. Despite the Big East entering 7 other teams besides the Cards into the NCAA tournament, they were unable to beat ANY of them (besides Syracuse). They struggled defensively this year (10th in league play in defensive FG%) and weren't a great rebounding team. They were also a turnover machine in Big East playing coughing the ball up 20% of the time (13th in the Big East).
The Bears are an ultra experienced team with all four of their double digit scorers being seniors. They are an extremely efficient offensive team ranking 1st in the Pac 10 in that category and 14th nationally. Despite playing in a weaker Pac 10, the Bears faced off against New Mexico (a 3rd seed), Ohio State (a 2 seed) and Kansas (a #1 seed) before the start of the conference season. They were down by just a point at half @ Kansas before running out of gas in the 2nd half. They played very tight games vs. Ohio State and New Mexico and both those were played without forward Theo Robertson who averages 14 PPG. Normally we'd give Rick Pitino the edge on the bench but not with veteran Mike Montgomery heading up the Cal troops. That one is a draw. Cal is the better and more experienced team here. Montgomery suspended starting forwards Omandi Amoke on Wednesday for this game, however we still really like Cal. While Amoke is a starter, he averages just 4 PPG and plays only 16 minutes per game. The big four seniors still get it done without him. At a pick'em or getting points we can't pass up the Bears.
Teddy Covers
Siena @ Purdue
Pick: Purdue -4
Many bettors remember Siena’s success in the NCAA tournament in ’08 and ’09, and expect similar results in 2010. Two years ago, Siena shocked Vanderbilt in the first round, winning by 21 as 6.5 point underdogs. Last year, the Saints pulled off another first round upset, this time a wild, double OT victory against Ohio State. They even hung tough with Louisville in the second round before falling short This team certainly has a strong mid-major pedigree when it comes to recent postseason success.
But this year’s Siena team isn’t as good as last year’s squad. They failed repeatedly, at every opportunity, to step up in class away from home. They lost at Temple. They lost in Philly against St John’s. They got blown out at Georgia Tech, and Northern Iowa and Butler; non-competitive in the second half of each of those ballgames. This 2010 Siena team is not poised to beat a strong defensive foe like Purdue; a Boilermakers squad that was widely considered to be a national title contender until the recent injury to Robbie Hummel.
Purdue won four of the six games they’ve played since Hummel got hurt. Both losses were ugly. They came on national TV, in games against tremendous defensive opponents (Michigan State and Minnesota) who were athletic enough to contain the Boilermakers both on the perimeter and in the paint. Siena doesn’t have that same ability. There’s a class difference here that is clearly not respected by the betting marketplace. 2* Take Purdue
Jim Feist
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -15½
The Lakers are 20-13 on the road this season, but a sizzling 30-5 at home. They tear up bad defensive teams and one of the worst in the NBA shows up here in road weary Minnesota. This is the end of a 4-game road trip for the Timberwolves and it's been a disaster, losing the last two games giving up 152 and 120 points. They've allowed over 100 points in 10 straight games. Minnesota is 5-30 on the road and has already lost to LA by double digits the last time they met. With the Lakers still in the hunt for the top record in the NBA and the T-Wolves already giving up on the season, this will be another blowout. Play the LA Lakers.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida State –1½ over Gonzaga
In all my years of watching and betting College Basketball I don’t think I have ever seen the Selection Committee screw up so royally. It seems that pedigree, not season success, played a tremendous role in determining which teams got favorable seeds and which team were left out of the tournament altogether. The so called “snubbing” of certain teams didn’t bother me as much as the seeding and this Florida State/Gonzaga game is a perfect example of that. The Gonzaga Bulldogs have built up quite a reputation among casual basketball fans for their “Cinderella” victories over the past 10 years and that has seriously affected the public-at-larges opinion of them. The Bulldogs fizzled in the West Coast Conference tournament, taking a beat-down from St. Mary’s in a game that was never close. So what do the Bulldogs get as a reward? A better seed of course, despite having a lower winning percentage than the Gaels and failing to win the conference tournament. Furthermore, this Gonzaga teams has some serious weaknesses starting with atrocious free-throw shooting (66.6) and a pedestrian team defense. Gonzaga rarely forced turnovers playing in a conference that only sent two teams to the tournament, ranking 210th nationally in steals and 271st in turnovers created, a major problem considering Florida State is one of the most athletic teams in the country. The Seminoles got absolutely hosed with a #9 seed that makes me seriously question if anybody from the Selection Committee watched this team play more than one game this season. They led the entire NCAA in defensive efficiency, (the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions), a remarkable achievement that received no national attention. If you’re skeptical of advanced stats, Florida State also led the entire NCAA in two-point field goal percentage (39.9%, and were the only team to hold opponents under 40%) and blocked a monstrous 17.8% of all shots attempted. It’s a shame they’re going to have to face the Orange in the second game of the tournament because this is a team that could’ve made a run to the Elite 8 and possibly the Final Four with the right draw. Alas, we’ll have to settle for a play on the Seminoles against a comically overrated Gonzaga team. Play: Florida State –1½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Georgia Tech +1.10 over Oklahoma State
If Georgia Tech proved something this season it’s that it plays its best basketball on a neutral court. The Yellow Jackets went 7-9 in conference play but lost seven of those games on the road, a statistic that is essentially meaningless now because this game is going to be played in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Georgia Tech beat some really good teams this season including Duke, Maryland and Clemson and made it all the way to the Conference Championship to secure its spot in the dance. While the Yellow Jackets have problems with free throw shooting and turnovers, they sport one of the best defenses in this field. Georgia Tech allows opponents to shoot 42% from inside the arc and 31.2% from three, key statistics that will keep them in this game against a rather pedestrian Oklahoma State offense. The Cowboys righted the ship after opening Big 12 play with a 4-5 record, scoring huge wins over Kansas and Baylor that secured them an at large bid. They don’t do anything particularly well, however, shooting a decent 35% from three and 52% from two. They were at the middle of the Big 12 pack in defensive efficiency and struggled stopping three point shots, allowing opponents to make 36.4%. The advantage in this matchup lies in the plethora of talent the Yellow Jackets have at the most important positions, point-guard and center. 6’11 Derick Favors is projected as a top five NBA draft pick and has been dominant over the past eight crucial games, averaging 16-10 with three blocks a game. 6’5 PG Iman Shumpert and 6’9 forward Gani Lawal are other Tech players projected to go in the first round. These prospects know that successful tournaments can propel their stocks and it’s the main reason why we’re recommending a play on the Jackets. The Cowboys don’t have the horses to keep up with Tech’s studs and if James Anderson has an off night the Cowboys have virtually no shot. Georgia Tech will ride Favors and Lawal against Oklahoma’s undersized frontcourt all game long. Play: Georgia Tech +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Maryland -9 over Houston
The sharps are going to be all over Houston and the number but that’s more of a “system” play than anything else. While the public (predictably) pounds the favorite in the 1-16 and 2-15 games, the sharps are going to be there backing the Lehigh’s, East Tennessee State’s and Vermont’s. Nobody can make a case for any of those teams but the point I’m making is the wise guys make those plays because they know the public’s on the other side. That’s a successful strategy over the long run but it shouldn’t deter bettors from taking favorites and this game is a perfect example. This line screams “trap” from the get go but and it’s a line that is designated to attract money on the Terps. Well, I’m biting and I’ll lay out the case why you should too. At no point this season were the Houston Cougars ever considered a tournament team. They finished the regular season 15-15, never being more than 3 games above .500 and finishing Conference USA play with a losing record. They lost games to San Diego, Texas San-Antonio, Central Florida, Southern Methodist and Tulane while not playing a single top 25 team throughout the regular season. In short, the Cougars have no idea what there in for because they haven’t played a team anywhere nearly as talented as the Terrapins. The Terps went 13-3 in the toughest conference in the land this season while defeating big time opponents both at home and away. They finished the season ranked 6th nationally in offensive efficiency while shooting 39% from three point land and 50% from inside the arc. They held opponents to a miniscule 41.6% on inside shots and 33% from three. They also made a respectable 72.3% from the foul line and boasted excellent block and steal ratios. They blitzed teams like Fairfield, Boston College and North Carolina who are unquestionably better than Houston. The Cougars haven’t played a pressure packed game all season and are perhaps the best case of a team that’s “happy to be there.” Maryland is in this to make a run to the Final Four and got a huge favor opening against such a weak opponent. I’ll be shocked if this isn’t a rout from the opening tip and recommend getting this number as quick as possible because the public will be all over it. Play: Maryland –9 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2)
Temple –3½ over Cornell
The best thing about this tournament this year is that it’s so wide open and any team that gets hot or comes in hot has a chance to go very deep. Enter the Temple Owls. When you look at pedigrees of teams that have won this event you’ll often find that team went on a 10-game or more winning streak during the year and performed outstanding on the road. The Owls closed the season 10-0 and they also won 13 of 14 games from early December until late January. Temple went 12-3 on the road 3-1 on a neutral court and 13-1 at home. They have one of the best profiles in the tourney and one must question why they’re just a #5 seed. Meanwhile the Big Red has dominated the Ivy League for years and that’s nice it, it really is but this isn’t Princeton, Harvard or Yale. Cornell’s four losses were to Seton Hall, Syracuse, Kansas and Pennsylvania and three of the four losses were by 10 points or more. Yes, they played the Jayhawks very tough, losing by just five in Kansas but the Jayhawks just came off a win over Temple and had Tennessee on deck, so that game was sandwiched between two ranked teams at the time. That’s not to say the Big Red is not a quality team because they are but the defense of the Owls is tremendous and it’s hard to imagine Cornell keeping pace with this quality team from the A-10. The Owls have won the A-10 for three consecutive years and this is its best team yet going into the dance. Play: Temple –3½ (No bets)
Cajun Sports
Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns
Selection: Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz make their way to the desert for a Friday night meeting against the Phoenix Suns with tipoff set for 10:00PM EST. The Suns have not done well lately against the Jazz they just don’t match up well on either end of the floor. In fact Utah has taken the last three straight in this series and we expect a similar result on Friday night. Utah is in a very tight battle for the division title and this is the time of year that every game counts with playoff ramifications. The Suns have lost by at least five points in each of the three losses to the Jazz and we see no reason for a change in that department as Utah shoots and defends much better overall than the host. Utah is 18-8 ATS when playing at Phoenix since 1996 and 4-1 ATS the last three seasons. The Jazz are 42-23 ATS overall this year including 15-6 ATS during the second half of the season. Utah is 21-7 ATS after scoring 105 or more points and 11-3 ATS versus teams that allow 99 or more points per game during the second half of the season. The Jazz have consistently won the money versus teams that allow 99 or more points per game during the last half of the season posting a record of 102-88 ATS since 1996. We will take the Utah Jazz in tonight’s match up as they make it four straight in this series with another easy win in the desert.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Utah Jazz 114 Phoenix Suns 103
Brad Diamond Sports
Play Philadelphia over New York
Nice reverse angle here for the struggling Sixers as they set up in double revenge versus the New Yorkers. Interesting, both clubs struggling with 24-44 SU records, like our chances this time with the visitor. The UNDERDOG in the series is super 4-1 ATS, but the road club is perfect at 6-0 ATS. In addition, the frustrated Philly group is 5-1 ATS in New York. We end with the Knicks 3-10 ATS after allowing over 100 points in their last game. New York is ranked #26 in total defense this season.
James Patrick Sports
Pistons vs. Pacers
Indiana has been trading baskets with their opponents as evidenced by their defense allowing (111) points per game in their past (7) contests and (5) of (7) in this series have gone Over the Total. Big Game James Patrick's Friday Night NBA selection is Detroit- Indiana Over the Total.
Lenny Del Genio
Temple -4 vs Cornell
Temple. This 5 vs. 12 matchup has become a popular upset choice of many, not only because of the history involved in the 5 vs. 12 matchup, but because of the fact that Cornell is the best team produced by the Ivy League in recent memory. The Big Red gave #1 Kansas all they could handle on January 6th, losing by only a five-point margin as 21-point underdogs, and afterwards Jayhawks head coach Bill Self called Cornell the best team they faced all season. It should be pointed out that one of Cornell's other three losses came to Syracuse. This is is the Big Red's third straight NCAA Tournament appearance. They did not receive favorable draws either of the past two years. In 2007, they had to deal with the Lopez twins of Stanford and last year they played Missouri, an up-tempo team that plays to their weaknesses. Now with a senior-laden team (nine seniors on roster), Cornell is ready to prove that the "third time is indeed the charm." Too bad they got a bad draw yet again. Temple not only won the regular season Atlantic 10 championship, but took home the Tournament title as well. This is the best team you don't know about. The Owls have won straight and covered six of their last seven. Don't discount the disadvantage Cornell is at because the Ivy League has no conference tournament and thus they've been off for two weeks. Temple HC Fran Dunphy knows counterpart Steve Donahue because he was his assistant at Penn. Temple was 18-10 ATS as a favorite during the regular season & A-10 Tournament and is a perfect 6-0 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in back to back games. Play on Temple.
Spartan
Florida St. -1 vs Gonzaga
Well in my opinion we have a classic case here of the odds makers setting up Joe Public for a major hit. The squares are tripping over each other to get at Gonzaga with this line. I took St Marys over Gonzaga in the conference tourney title game and it paid off as the Gaels absolutely smoked them. Sometimes the public does all load up on one side and have it cash out for them but far more often than not they are left tearing up their tickets in frustration wondering what just happened. The Seminoles hang their hat on tough play on the defensive end and I love teams that bring their hard hat into the big dance and get after people on D. The Seminoles will have to dirty this thing up and try and shorten the game. I think they gut out a closely contested and low scoring game here. Just too fishy a number and way too much public love pouring in for Gonzaga. I suggest going squarely against there herd here and backing Florida State to get the win and live to fight another day guys!
GOLD SHEET
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Syracuse 83 - Vermont 58--Whatever happened to Taylor Coppenrath? Unfortunately for Vermont (16), he's playing in Europe now, as this year's Catamounts don't possess a game-changing presence the likes of the versatile 6-9 Coppenrath, who helped lead UVM to a milestone first-round upset of Syracuse (1) back in 2005. Sure, physical 6-5 Cat sr. F Marqus Blakely (17.4 ppg & 9.4 rpg) is a dominant inside force at his own level. But he'll be "roofed" in the paint by the taller Orange frontliners. And Vermont (just 32% from three-point arc) probably won't be accurate enough from the perimeter to bomb effectively over 'Cuse's 2-3 zone. Even if Jim Boeheim decides to hold out 6-9 sr. F Arinze Onuaku, who's questionable with a quad injury, the overmatched Cats will be hard-pressed to prevent Orange star 6-7 jr. Wes Johnson (16 ppg & 8.4 rpg), 6-7 soph Kris Joseph, and 6-9 jr. Rick Jackson from doing major damage around the bucket, which in turn will create some wide-open looks on the perimeter for dead-eye sr. sharpshooter Andy Rautins. Add in the fact that America East reps are just 5-13 vs. the spread in the tourney since 1994, and laying fair price with revenge-minded Syracuse looks like the percentage play.
Gonzaga 70 - Florida State 61--The battle lines couldn't be more clear cut in this matchup. Will the high-octane offense of Gonzaga (8) find any creases in the stingy defense of Florida State (9)? Can the mostly feckless Seminole attack exploit the frequent holes the Bulldogs leave open on the stop end? Long, tall FSU has permitted a paltry 37% FGs this season, tops in the nation. The potent 'Zags counter with a well-orchestrated offense (49% FGs--No. 6 nationally) that can attack inside or out. Even if you believe in the cliché that says "defense wins championships," basketball is ultimately about putting the ball in the bucket. And the Seminoles, who could at least depend on clutch G Toney Douglas in crunch time last season, just don't have any reliable go-to guys on the perimeter this season. As long as 7-0 soph C Robert Sacre & springy 6-7 frosh Elias Harris don't allow FSU's bruising frontcourt to play ping-pong on the offensive glass, the Bulldogs' vastly superior backcourt of 6-5 sr. Matt Bouldin & 6-5 jr. Steven Gray (combined 30 ppg) should hold sway and propel tourney-savvy Mark Few's Gonzaga bunch into the next round.
NCAA EAST REGIONAL
West Virginia 78 - Morgan State 67--Though West Virginia (2) riding high after capturing the Big East tourney, still interested in taking lofty number with a capable, battle-tested Morgan State squad (15) eager to make a better showing in its 2nd NCAA appearance following 82-54 smashing vs. Oklahoma LY. The Bears certainly won't be intimidated by the Big East juggernaut after battling Louisville in Freedom Hall (lost by just 9), upsetting Arkansas 97-94 on the road, and hanging much of the way in 79-63 setback at Baylor in preconference (MSU trailed just 39-36 at H). The fast-paced Bears (77 ppg) own a terrific inside-outside tandem in 6-9 soph Kevin Thompson (13 ppg, 12 rpg, 52% FGs) and electric 6-4 sr. G Reggie Holmes (22 ppg, 4 rpg, 36% from arc), who can create his own shot vs. WV's man-to-man. And if Huggins goes to a 1-3-1 zone, aforementioned Holmes, frosh F DeWayne Jackson (MEAC Rookie of Year is loop's top 3-pt. marksman) and sharp-shooting sr. G Troy Smith ( 9 ppg, 39% from arc) capable connecting from long range. Mounties' outstanding 6-7 F Da'Sean Butler (17 ppg, 6 rpg, 3 apg) and 6-9 soph F Devin Eubanks (12 ppg, 8 rpg) are prime-time performers, but G play has been spotty at times. Plus, WV has had a tendency for slow starts, as Mounties' just 5-7 as DD chalk TY. So, no surprise to see aggressive, well-schooled Bears (2nd in Div. I in FTs attempted!)--under tutelage of crafty HC Todd Bozeman (MEAC Coach of Year for 3 straight seasons)--stay inside roomy number.
Clemson 81 - Missouri 75--Recognize that Clemson (7) hasn't had much success in NCAAs lately, losing to lower-seeded teams each of the past two seasons. But believe veteran, uptempo Clemson (2 jrs. & 2 srs. in starting 5) able to finally get over the hurdle vs. a somewhat vulnerable Missouri team entering the Big Dance in a shooting funk. Mizzou has made just 36% FGs and a horrific 22 % from arc (18 of 80!) in its last 4 games, 3 of which were losses. And Columbia observers report Mizzou hasn't adequately replaced "glue guy" 6-8 F Jason Safford (9 ppg, 5 rpg) down the stretch. Missouri's best recipe for success is forcing TOs with its variety of presses and then scoring quick transition hoops, don't think that M.O. will work so well vs. Clemson's seasoned distributor Demontez Stitt (11 ppg, 3 apg), who is playing with greater confidence and aggressiveness down the stretch. Missouri's glaring weakness is lack of quality post players (sans aformentioned Safford). So in a halfcourt game, must give decided advantage to Clemson, which owns one of the better insider scorers in relentless 6-7, 240 F Trevor Booker (15 ppg, 8 rpg), who is nicely complemented by springy 6-8 F Jerai Grant (4 blocked shots, 4 steals past 3 games), the son of former NBA player Horace Grant. And with Clemson's emerging frosh G Noel Johnson (4 of 5 beyond arc in ACC 1st-round game) firing with more confidence, expect Oliver Purnell's squad to outgun Mike Anderson's crew in a potentially high-scoring Tiger vs. Tiger shootout.
NCAA EAST REGIONAL
Temple 72 - Cornell 63--Fascinating matchup here between the teacher and pupil. Temple (5) HC Fran Dunphy, who is going to the NCAAs for the 12th time (9 times at Penn, 3 straight at Temple) has been a mentor for Cornell (12) HC Steve Donahue, who served as an assistant on Dunphy's staff at Penn for 10 years before taking the job at Ithaca. And while it's been trendy to pick the 12th seed upset over the 5th seed in the tourney (a slew of ESPN "experts" have done so already), we prefer to take the surging, more athletic Owls, who are riding a 10-game win streak (8-1-1 vs. spread).
Cornell has suffered DD losses in last two NCAA 1st--rounders. But do expect a more competitive effort from a 27-4 Cornell contingent that dominated the Ivy League, upset Bama 71-67 in Tuscaloosa in its season opener, and gave Kansas a scare in narrow 71-67 loss in Lawrence on Jan. 6. Big Red owns a productive inside-outside attack--featuring straight-shooting G Ryan Wittman (18 ppg), son of former NBA player Randy Wittman, and 7-0 C Jeff Foote (12 ppg, 8 rpg). But Cornell hard-pressed to find any rhythm vs. smothering Temple defense (57 ppg, 38% FGs, 28% from tripleville) highly disruptive both on the interior and on the perimeter. Look for Temple's lock-down defender G Ryan Brooks to shadow Wittman, while Owls' "double-double" machine 6-9 F Lavoy Allen tough provides matchup for Cornell. And in crunch time, we prefer Owls' dazzling 6-4 soph Juan Fernandez 12 ppg, 4 apg, 45% from arc), who thrives in high-pressure games. Moreover, Ivy teams haven't won an NCAA game since 1998, And A-10 squads are 5-0-1 vs. spread in Big Dance since 2005.
Wisconsin 69 - Wofford 54--We don't envision another one-sided affair like Wisconsin's (4) 70-43 bashing vs. Wofford (13) in Madison back in 2007. We do look for the healthy Badgers to cover a reasonable number vs. scrappy, but offensively-containable Terrier squad making its 1st-ever NCAA appearance. Wofford, which is riding a 13-game win streak, did play a challenging preconference slate, hanging tough at Pitt, while defeating Georgia on the road and South Carolina at home. Not bad. But believe, the Terriers will have trouble once again preparing the Badgers' unique swing attack, spearheaded by physical Gs Trevon Hughes (15 ppg, 5 rpg), marksman Jason Bohannon (12 ppg, 4 rpg), and hard-to-guard 6-10 F Jon Leuer (15 ppg, 6 rpg; 39% from arc), who is back to full strength after missing 9 games due to a wrist injury. And Wiscy's backcourt play has improved with maturation of soph G Jordan Taylor (10 ppg, 4 apg).
Defense-pressuring Wofford gets lots of quick, transition hoops off turnovers, but it's highly unlikely Terriers force many miscues vs. disciplined, methodical Badgers (nation-fewest 9 TOs pg!). And doubt unbalanced Wofford finds a groove in its halfcourt offense, with 6-6 F jr. Noah Dahlman (17 ppg, 6 rpg), voted the Southern Conference Player of the Year--the only DD scorer on the roster--struggling vs. Badgers' "packed-in" man-to-man. In addition, Bo Ryan's resilient squad has played well following a losing effort, going 7-2 vs. spread last 9 in that situation. Defensively-stout Wisconsin (56 ppg), which leads the nation in protecting the defensive glass, advances to next round with a not-so-pretty DD win in this anticipated "grinder."
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL
Duke 79 - Arkansas-Pine Bluff 58--Considering Pine Bluff's (16) aforementioned respectable showings vs. a series of accomplished big-time opponents, Golden Lions might not be as helpless as other "16s" against a power foe such as Duke (1). Although Blue Devils enter the Dance having won 12 of last 13 SU, they didn't look overwhelming at the ACC Tourney when failing to cover all three of their games. And considering his rather shallow bench, Coach K is unlikely to burden his overworked Duke starters with far more-challenging assignments just ahead. Blue Devils just one cover in last five Big Dance first-round appearances.
Duke 75 - Winthrop 55--Winthrop's (16) results were a bit mixed vs. top-flight opposition (crushed by 36 at Clemson, but not humiliated in losses vs. Charlotte, Cincinnati, and NC State). And Eagles often struggle mightily on attack end without a go-to scoring threat. But the Big South Tourney champs will have won 12 of their last 15 SU if they reach this assignment, and there's enough evidence to suggest Winthrop might not get completely embarrassed by Duke (1). Coach K not compelled to run up this score and expose his starters to unnecessary wear-and-tear with bigger challenges looming just ahead, and not sure thin Blue Devil bench will be able to extend margin in late going.
California 77 - Louisville 72--It's hard to forecast which Louisville (9) team shows up at the Ford Center, given the Cards' bipolar tendencies that were reflected in a series of back-and-forth efforts that became more pronounced in latter stages of campaign. Although Louisville rates a defensive edge over Pac-10 regular-season champ Cal (8), much prefer sr.-laden Bears' firepower and three-pronged strike force of Gs Jerome Randle (18.7 ppg), Patrick Christopher (16 ppg) & F Theo Robertson (13.8 ppg), the latter's absence having proven costly in early-season play when Bears lost vs. top intersectional foes Syracuse, Ohio State, and New Mexico. This UL edition lacks its usual backcourt star power, with G Edgar Sosa (only 36.7% from floor) prone to go cold, while rugged 6-9 Samardo Samuels' disturbing tendency to get into foul trouble has made Cards a risky investment (except when playing Svracuse, that is). And we don't rate Rick Pitino any sideline edge over respected Cal mentor Mike Montgomery, either.
NCAA MIDWEST REGIONAL
Ohio State 71 - UC Santa Barbara 61--Ohio State (2) certainly deserves to be a substantial favorite considering its impressive 90-61 plastering of Minnesota in the Big Ten tourney final on Sunday. But the Buckeyes have often been prone to relax a bit, covering only 4 of their last 11 as a double-digit favorite. And, with do-everything G/F Evan Turner (19.9 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 5.9 apg, 53.8% FGs) around, the Buckeyes can usually afford to cruise in games until Turner decides it's winnin' time, taking over after previously dishing to 6-5 soph William Buford (14.5 ppg) and trey-bomber Jon Diebler (12.6 ppg, 42% three-balls).
But UCSB (15), the regular-season and tourney champs of the lightly-regarded Big West, would appear have a decent chance to remain to competitive vs. its Big Ten foe. Although this is the Gauchos' first NCAA tourney since 2002, respected HC Bob Williams is in his 11th year in Santa Barbara and his 22nd overall. He returned a deep, veteran team this season, augmented by 6-5 Loyola-Marymount transfer Orlando Johnson (18 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 40% treys), who quickly became the Player of the Year in the Big West. 6-5 soph James Nunnally (15 ppg. 5.7 rpg) is a valid complement, and 6-2 sr. James Powell (41% triples) is the leading trey shooter in the history of the league. Although outmanned to a degree, Williams' boys have shown they are well schooled to handle any game situation.
Oklahoma State 74 - Georgia Tech 69--Slight nod to fast-closing Oklahoma State (7), which surprisingly developed a new-found chemistry toward the end of the season after PG Ray Penn was felled with a stress fracture in mid-February. 6-6 jr. A-A James Anderson (22.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg) was already the established star. But the likes of 5-10 soph shooter Keiton Page (14 ppg last 10 games) began providing more help for Anderson, and burly 6-6 lefty Marshall Moses (8.2 rpg) & 6-8 Kentucky transfer Matt Pilgrim (6.8 rpg) began providing more banging inside. The Cowboys were able to shoot down Kansas 85-77 Feb. 27 in Stillwater.
Yes, Georgia Tech (10) is talented and formidable foe, especially with its height, including 6-9 jr. Gani Lawal (13.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and 6-10 future NBA star Derrick Favors (12.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg). But the rest of the coach Paul Hewitt's team has lacked consistency, partly due to youth. And the Yellow Jackets connect on only 64% from the FT stripe compared with OSU's 71.5%. It must be noted that both teams have struggled on the road. Ga. Tech lost 8 of its last 9 away prior to its 3-1 run in the ACC tourney. OSU was 4-8 its last 12 on the road vs. quality opposition.
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Pittsburgh 74 - Oakland 59--We're not exactly sure what to make of Oakland (14). On the one hand, the Golden Grizzlies (11 straight victories) enter the tourney with plenty of momentum after laying waste to the Summit League (formerly Mid-Continent Conference). On the other hand, while we credit head coach Greg Kampe (25 years at the helm!) for his ambitious non-conference scheduling, it's hard not to notice that Oakland was blasted by 30+ points at Kansas, Memphis, Michigan State and Syracuse. Sure, Pittsburgh (3) might be a cut below at least three of that mighty quartet. But the Grizz also suffered decisive double-digit losses at Wisconsin and at a very sub-par Oregon edition earlier in the campaign. The confident Kampe says he believes the Sweet 16 is a realistic goal for his team, but Oakland's inability to step up vs. better competition makes us doubt they can get by a Panther side forged tough in the crucible of the rugged Big East. Pitt much more conscientious on the defensive end than the permissive Grizzlies, and clever mentor Jamie Dixon will make sure Oakland has tough time getting the ball to star 6-11 jr. C Keith Benson in the post.
Xavier 60 - Minnesota 55--Tough call, if mostly because Minnesota (11) head coach Tubby Smith has so much more NCAA tournament experience (including a national championship) than rookie counterpart Chris Mack of Xavier (6). Still, the Musketeers hold most of the other edges in this matchup. Credit the Golden Gophers for recovering from the loss of PG Al Nolen to academic problems midway through the season. With soph Devoe Joseph gradually growing accustomed to his role as main playmaker, Minnesota managed to eke out an invitation to the "Big Dance" on the strength of its foray all the way to finals of the Big 10 tournament