SPORTS ADVISORS
MIDWEST REGION
(at Milwaukee)
(10) Georgia Tech (22-11, 16-11 ATS) vs. (7) Oklahoma State (22-10, 15-10-1 ATS)
After struggling to close the regular season (1-3 SU and ATS), the Yellow Jackets reached the finals of the ACC tournament but fell to Duke on Sunday 65-61, cashing as an 8½-point underdog. They won three straight (2-1 ATS) to reach the title game, including a 69-64 upset over regular-season co-champ Maryland in the quarterfinals, cashing as four-point ‘dogs.
Oklahoma State won five of seven (SU and ATS) to close out the regular season, but fell in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 postseason tourney, falling 83-64 to Kansas State as a 4½-point pup. The Cowboys cashed in six of their last nine games, including a win over then No. 1-Kansas, 85-77 back on Feb. 27 as six-point home ‘dogs.
Georgia Tech returns to the Big Dance for the first time since 2007, when it was upset by UNLV in the first round (67-63). Since reaching the national championship game in 2004 (losing to UConn 82-73), the Yellow Jackets have played just three tourney games, going 1-2 SU and ATS.
After a four-year hiatus, Oklahoma State made it back to the party last year for the 23rd time in school history and knocked off Tennessee 77-75 (as a three-point underdog) in a first-round contest before suffering an eight-point loss to top-seeded Pitt (as a nine-point pup). Going back to 2003, the Cowboys are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in first-round games.
The only recent meeting between these two teams was in the 2004 Final Four when Georgia Tech edged Oklahoma State 67-65 as a 4½-point underdog on its way to the title game.
The Yellow Jackets come into this one on positive ATS runs of 5-1 in neutral-site games, 11-4 after a spread-cover, 10-4-1 as an underdog, 5-0 against Big 12 squads and 6-1 in non-conference contests. The Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite, but they are on ATS streaks of 26-11-1 overall,, 15-5-1 as a neutral-site favorite, 34-14-3 as a chalk and 8-2-2 in non-conference action.
For Georgia Tech, the under is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-0 in neutral-site games, 4-1 as a neutral-site underdog and 7-3 after a straight-up loss. Oklahoma State has stayed below the posted total in four straight non-conference games, six of eight as a NCAA Tournament favorite and 11-4 in the Big Dance overall, but it is on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 6-2 as a favorite and 8-3 after a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE
(15) UCSB (20-9, 15-11 ATS) vs. (2) Ohio State (27-7, 17-17 ATS)
The Gauchos won the Big West regular-season title and postseason tournament, going 9-1 SU (6-4 ATS) down the stretch. They scored a 69-64 win over Long Beach State on in Saturday’s championship game, covering as a one-point favorite, with Orlando Johnson leading the way with 20 points, five rebounds and four assists. UCSB is 3-0 SU and ATS at neutral sites, winning two Big West tourney games in Anaheim while also knocking off Furman in Berkeley, Calif., in December.
Ohio State proved to be the most dominant team in the Big Ten this season, tying for the regular-season crown and claiming the postseason tournament title with a 90-61 win over Minnesota on Sunday, easily cashing as a 3½-point favorite. Player of the Year candidate Evan Turner led the win with 31 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. The Buckeyes come into the Big Dance on a seven-game winning streak (4-3 ATS) and they’ve won 13 of the last 14 (6-7 ATS).
UCSB is making just its fourth Tournament appearance and first since 2002, when it lost to Arizona 86-81 in the first round. The Gauchos’ lone tourney win came in 1990, a 70-66 triumph over Houston. Ohio State suffered a mild first-round upset last year, losing to ninth-seeded Siena 74-72 as 2½-point favorite, just its third one-and-done performance in 25 all-time appearances (and second since 1982). The Buckeyes missed out on the Big Dance in 2008, one year after getting all the way to the national title game.
The Gauchos are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference contests and 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 after a spread-cover, but they’re on positive ATS surges of 4-1 in neutral-site games and 4-0 as an underdog. Ohio State has cashed in eight of 11 against winning teams, but is on pointspread slides of 0-5 in non-conference games, 3-10 in NCAA Tournament games and 2-9 as a Big Dance chalk.
UCSB has topped the total in 12 of 16 on Friday, but it is on “under” runs of 14-3 in neutral-site games, 12-4 as an underdog and 4-1 as a neutral-site pup. Ohio State in on several “under” streaks, including 5-2 overall, 5-1 in neutral-site games, 6-1 in NCAA tourney games and 5-0 as a Tournament favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
MIDWEST REGION
(at Spokane, Wash.)
(12) New Mexico State (22-11, 15-10-2 ATS) vs. (5) Michigan State (24-8, 12-19 ATS)
The Aggies played their way into the Big Dance, winning the WAC postseason tournament with Saturday’s stunning 69-63 victory over regular-season champ Utah State, cashing as a 10-point underdog. They lost their final two regular-season contests, but still come into this game on a 7-2 SU run, cashing in six of their last eight lined contests.
Michigan State was knocked out in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament on Friday, losing 72-67 in overtime to surging Minnesota as a four-point chalk. Still, the Spartans closed the regular season by winning five of their final six (4-2 ATS) to claim a share of the regular-season crown along with Ohio State and Purdue.
New Mexico State returns to the Tournament for the first time since 2007 and just the second time since 1999. The Aggies have gone one-and-out in each of their last three appearances, with the last victory coming in 1993. Going back to 1971, they’re 2-8 in opening-round action.
Michigan State streaked all the way to the Final Four as a No. 2 seed last year, eventually losing to North Carolina 89-72 as a 7½-point underdog. This is the Spartans’ 24th tourney appearance in school history, and they’re 5-0 SU all-time in the first round as a No. 5 seed.
New Mexico State is on several positive ATS runs, including 12-4-1 overall, 5-0 in neutral-site games, 4-0 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 5-1-1 after a spread-cover and 3-1-1 in non-conference games. Michigan State is 17-4-1 ATS in its last 22 Tournament games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS in their last six Big Dance contests overall, but it is on ATS skids of 1-6 in non-conference action, 3-9 as a favorite and 1-7 against winning teams.
The Aggies have topped the total in 12 of 17 non-conference contests, but stayed below the number in five of six neutral-site games and five straight as neutral-site underdogs. The Spartans are on “over” runs of 4-0 in neutral-site games, 5-1 as a neutral-site favorite and 5-1 in NCAA Tournament contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW MEXICO STATE
(13) Houston (19-15, 15-16 ATS) vs. (4) Maryland (23-8, 17-10 ATS)
After finishing in the middle of the Conference USA pack during the regular season, the Cougars rattled off four consecutive SU and ATS wins in the postseason tournament to claim the title and earn an automatic spot in the Big Dance. Houston rallied from a seven-point second-half deficit to upset top-seeded UTEP in the title game, 81-73 as a seven-point underdog, thanks in large part to 28 points from Kelvin Lewis.
Maryland won seven straight (6-1 ATS) to close the regular season and claim a share of the ACC title, but got knocked out in the quarterfinals of the conference tourney a week ago, losing 69-64 to Georgia Tech as four-point favorites. The Terps were outrebounded by 10 in the loss to the Yellow Jackets and shot just 25-for-67 from the field.
Houston is going dancing for the first time since suffering a five-point loss to Georgia Tech in 1992. The Cougars haven’t won a Tournament game since the Phi Slamma Jamma squads reached back-to-back national championship games in 1983 and 1984.
Maryland pounded California 84-71 as a 1½-point underdog in last year’s opening-round contest before bowing out to No. 2 seed Memphis 89-70 as a 10-point pup. The Terps have made this event just twice since 2004, but they’ve made it past the opening round nine straight times (including winning their only championship in 2002). Their last first-round defeat came in 1997.
Houston is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games and 7-16 ATS in its last 23 after a straight-up win, but it is on positive ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 4-0 in neutral-site games and 5-1 as an underdog. Maryland is on ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a straight-up loss and 9-2 as a favorite, but it is on ATS skids of 2-5 in the Big Dance, 1-4 in non-conference action and 0-4 in neutral-site contests.
The Cougars have stayed below the total in eight of 11 as an underdog, but they’ve topped the posted price in six of eight overall and four of five after a straight-up win. The Terps have stayed “under” the number in seven of 10 as a neutral-site favorite and five of six as a Tournament favorite, but the over is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 6-1 in non-conference action and 8-0-1 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND
WEST REGION
(at Milwaukee)
(11) Minnesota (21-13, 17-16 ATS) vs. (6) Xavier (24-8, 20-11 ATS)
The Golden Gophers played their way right off the bubble and into the NCAA Tournament, winning their regular-season finale and then three straight to reach the Big Ten conference tournament championship game. Minnesota title dreams ended there, though losing 90-61 to Ohio State as a 3½-point underdog, halting a 4-0 ATS run.
Xavier tied for the Atlantic 10 regular-season crown with Temple, but lost 89-85 in overtime to Richmond as a three-point favorite in the conference tournament semifinals on Saturday. The Musketeers had won eight straight (6-2 ATS) going into the Richmond contest, including a 76-64 victory at Florida as four-point ‘pups.
Minnesota ended a four-year Tournament drought last year, but its stay was brief, losing a 76-62 first-round game to Texas as a 4½-point underdog. The Gophers are 0-for-3 SU and ATS in their last three opening games, last prevailing in 1997 when they made it all the way to their only Final Four.
Xavier, making its 21st all-time appearance and fifth in a row, has held its own in recent seasons, getting out of the first round each of the last three years and getting the Elite Eight in 2008 and the Sweet 16 last year. The Musketeers walloped their last two first-round opponents, crushing Georgia (73-61 as an 8½-point chalk) in 2008 and Portland State (77-59 as a 10-point favorite) last year.
Minnesota is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a non-cover, but it is on positive ATS runs of 8-2 overall, 5-0 in non-conference action and 5-1 against teams with a winning record. Xavier is on a plethora of pointspread upticks, including 35-17-2 overall, 35-16-1 in neutral-site games, 13-5 in non-conference games, 12-3-1 in the Tournament, 8-1 as an underdog in the Big Dance and 7-0 against Big Ten squads.
For the Gophers, the over is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 in non-conference games, 9-4 as a neutral-site favorite and 5-0 as a favorite overall. The Musketeers have stayed below the posted total in five of seven against Big Ten teams and 10 of 13 neutral-site games, but they are on “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 10-4 in Tournament games, 4-1 as an underdog and 5-1 in non-conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(14) Oakland (26-8, 9-12 ATS) vs. (3) Pittsburgh (24-8, 16-11-2 ATS)
The Golden Grizzlies are riding a school-record 11-game winning streak (5-6 ATS) and are winners of 20 of their last 21 overall (9-11 ATS). They went 17-1 in Summit Conference action to win the regular-season crown and then swept through the conference tournament to gain the automatic bid, beating Indiana-Purdue 76-64 in the title game as a 1½-point underdog.
The Panthers closed the Big East regular season by winning seven of eight (6-2 ATS), but fell in their first conference tourney game, losing 50-45 to Notre Dame as two-point underdogs in the two-point ‘dog. Pitt has won 20 or more games nine straight years.
Oakland’s only previous trip to this event came in 2005, when it beat Alabama A&M in the play-in game (79-69 as a six-point chalk) then got spanked by top-seeded North Carolina (96-68, pushing as a 28-point pup).
Pittsburgh is making its ninth straight Tournament appearance, going 7-1 in first-round games during this stretch. Last year, the Panthers were the top seed in the East and survived a first-round scare against East Tennessee State, eventually prevailing 72-62 (failing to cash as a 21-point chalk) and getting all the way to the Elite Eight, where they lost to Big East rival Villanova 78-76 as a two-point favorite.
These teams have met twice in the last decade, with Pitt scoring a 70-53 win back in 2001 and then getting a 66-55 victory in 2006, with both games unlined.
Oakland is on ATS runs of 5-0 in neutral-site games, 5-2-1 in non-conference action and 4-1-1 as a neutral-site underdog. Pitt is on ATS slides of 2-8 at neutral sites, 0-5 in Tournament games and 2-7 as a neutral-site favorite, but it is on positive pointspread streaks of 14-6-1 overall, 6-1-1 after a non-cover, 3-1-1 in non-conference games and 14-5-2 against teams with a winning record.
The Grizzlies have stayed below the posted number in 3-1-1 in neutral-site games, but they are on “over” runs of 7-2 overall and 6-0 in non-conference play. The Panthers have topped the total in eight of 11 Tournament outings as favorites and five of seven after a non-cover, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-3 as a neutral-site favorite and 7-2 on Friday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OAKLAND
WEST REGION
(at Buffalo, N.Y.)
(9) Florida State (22-9, 8-18 ATS) vs. (8) Gonzaga (26-6, 15-11-2 ATS)
The Seminoles finished tied for third in the ACC regular season, but lost in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament on Friday, falling 58-52 to N.C. State as a 6½-point favorite. Florida State won five of six (3-3 ATS) to close the regular season, but failed to cash in any of its last four.
The Bulldogs cruised to the West Coast Conference regular-season crown, winning 17 of their last 19 games (11-6-1 ATS), but got clobbered in the tournament championship game, falling 81-62 to St. Mary’s as a 4½-point favorite.
Florida State got invited to the big party last year for the first time since 1998 and it took 12th-seeded Wisconsin down to the wire, eventually losing 61-59 in overtime as a three-point favorite. That ended a 4-0 SU run in first-round tourney action that dated back to 1992.
Gonzaga has the nation’s fourth longest active streak of reaching the Big Dance, with this being its 12th consecutive appearance. During this run, the Bulldogs are 8-3 SU in first-round action, including last year’s 77-64 rout of Akron en route to a Sweet 16 appearance, where they got crushed by eventual national champ North Carolina 98-77. The Zags failed to cover in all three tourney games last year and are in an 0-5 ATS slump in the Big Dance.
The Seminoles have been brutal at the betting window lately, on ATS slides of 8-20 overall, 6-18 against teams with a winning record, 1-4 in non-conference games, 1-5 after a non-cover and 0-4 as a favorite. Although they’ve failed to cash in five straight Tournament games, the Bulldogs are on ATS runs of 4-0 in non-conference games, 6-1 as an underdog, 4-1 after a straight-up loss and 8-1 against teams with a winning record.
Florida State has topped the total in four of five non-conference games, but the under is on streaks of 4-0 overall, 19-5-2 in neutral-site games, 5-0 as a neutral-site favorite, 4-0 as a favorite overall and 35-15-1 after a straight-up loss. Gonzaga has stayed below the posted total in four of six overall, but is on “over” streaks of 12-3 in non-conference action, 16-5 the Tournament, 28-10 as an underdog, 36-16 after a non-cover, 18-7 as a neutral-site underdog and 28-10 as an underdog anywhere.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(16) Vermont (25-8, 6-2 ATS) vs. (1) Syracuse (28-4, 19-9 ATS)
After finishing second in the America East Conference regular season, the Catamounts won the postseason tournament with an 83-70 victory over Boston University on Saturday, cashing as a five-point home favorite. Vermont comes into the Big Dance having won 11 of its last 12 and has cashed in each of its last six lined contests.
After winning the Big East regular season by two full games, the Orange stumbled down the stretch, losing their last regular-season contest at Louisville (78-68 as a one-point favorite) and then dropping their opening Big East Conference tournament game to Georgetown (91-84, failing as a 5½-point favorite). Still, Syracuse was awarded its first No. 1 seed in the Big Dance since 1980.
Vermont’s only NCAA Tournament win came in its last appearance in 2005, when it ironically upset Syracuse 60-57 in overtime in a No. 5 vs. No. 12 seed matchup. The Catamounts, who lost in the next round to Michigan State, won three straight America East titles from 2003-05, the school’s only three previous trips to the Tournament.
After losing to Vermont in 2005, Syracuse went one-and-done again the following year (66-58 loss to Texas A&M). The Orange then failed to qualify the next two years before returning last March and getting to the Sweet 16, where they tumbled to Oklahoma 84-71. Those back-to-back first-round setbacks in ’05 and ’06, plus another in 1999, are the only occasions since 1976 (26 appearances) that Syracuse failed to reach the second round.
Vermont comes in on ATS surges of 6-0 overall, 4-1 in neutral-site games, 9-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-0 after a straight-up win. Syracuse is also on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 28-11 overall, 7-2 in non-conference action, 8-3 at neutral sites, 25-10 as a favorite and 4-1 as a neutral-site favorite.
For the Catamounts, the under is on runs of 4-0 in Tournament games and 4-0 as an underdog of 13 points or more, but their also on “over” runs of 9-3 overall, 5-2 in neutral-site games, 8-0 in non-conference action and 7-3 after a straight-up win. Syracuse brings in “over” runs of 5-0-1 overall, 5-2 in non-conference action, 16-5 at neutral sites, 4-0-1 as a favorite and 4-1 as a neutral-site favorite. When these two met in the 2005 Big Dance, they stayed well below the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE
EAST REGION
(at Buffalo, N.Y.)
(15) Morgan State (27-9, 6-5 ATS) vs. (2) West Virginia (27-6, 13-19 ATS)
The Bears won seven straight (3-1 ATS) to close as both the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference regular-season and postseason tournament champions. They beat South Carolina State in the tournament final 68-61, but came up short as 10-point favorites.
The Mountaineers edged Georgetown 60-58 on Saturday to claim the Big East tournament title, but fell short as 2½-point favorites. Da’Sean Butler scored 20 points and grabbed six rebounds to lead the way for West Virginia. The Mountaineers are riding a six-game winning streak (2-4 ATS) but are just 7-11 ATS in games away from home this season.
Morgan State’s first invite to the Big Dance came last year (also as a No. 15 seed) and it didn’t go well, as it got destroyed by No. 2 seed Oklahoma 82-54 as a 15-point underdog.
West Virginia, which received its highest seed in school history this year, is making its third straight Tournament appearance and fifth in the last six years. The Mountaineers bowed out in the opening round last year as a six-seed, getting upset 68-60 by 11th-seeded Dayton as a nine-point favorite. Prior to that, the Mounties hadn’t dropped an opening-round game since 1992 (going 4-0 SU).
The Bears have cashed in four of five overall, but they are on ATS skids of 5-12 in neutral-site games, 1-4 as underdogs, 1-5 after a non-cover and 1-7 as a neutral-site underdog. West Virginia has cashed in eight of 11 NCAA Tournament games, but it is on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 1-4 non-conference games, 1-5 as a favorite and 0-4 as a neutral-site favorite.
Morgan State is on several “under” runs, including 6-1-1 overall, 12-5 at neutral sites, 4-1 as an underdog, 7-1-1 after a straight-up win and 7-1 as a neutral-site ‘dog. The Mountaineers have topped the total in four of five NCAA Tournament games and seven of nine Friday contests, but they are on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 as a neutral-site favorite, 5-2 as a favorite anywhere and 4-0 at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(10) Missouri (22-10, 14-12 ATS) vs. (7) Clemson (21-10, 14-14 ATS)
Finishing fifth in the Big 12, Missouri lost three of four (0-4 ATS) to close the season, including a 75-60 loss to Nebraska in the opening round of the Big 12 Conference tourney last week. Missouri was outrebounded 33-21 and shot just 19-for-56 from the field against the Cornhuskers.
Clemson tied for fifth in the ACC’s regular season standings after losing three of five to end the season (SU and ATS), including a first-round ACC loss to N.C. State, falling 59-57 as a seven-point favorite.
Missouri reached the Tournament last year for the first time since 2003, and it made the most of it, reaching the Elite Eight where it fell to UConn 82-75 as a six-point underdog. The Tigers have won four straight first-round games (3-1 ATS) going back to 2001.
Clemson has followed up a 10-year run without a Tournament appearance with three straight trips to this event. However, Clemson failed to hang around very long, suffering first-round upset losses to Villanova (75-69 as a six-point chalk) in 2008 and Michigan in 2009 (62-59 as a 4½-point favorite). Clemson’s last tourney victory came in 1997 (when it advanced to the Sweet 16), as it is 0-for-3 in first-round contests since.
Missouri has failed to cash in five of six as a ‘dog and four straight overall, but it is on ATS runs of 10-3 after a straight-up loss, 9-3 in Tournament games and 7-3 at neutral sites. Clemson is just 6-20 ATS in its last 26 neutral-site games as a favorite and 0-9 ATS in its last nine neutral-site contests overall, but currently rides positive ATS streaks of 11-4 as a favorite, 5-0 in non-conference games and 4-1 after a non-cover.
For Missouri, the over is on surges of 5-0 in non-conference action, 10-1 in the Big Dance, 8-0 as a Tournament underdog, 9-2 as a neutral-site underdog and 4-1 after a straight-up loss. Meanwhile, Clemson is on “under” streaks of 15-7 overall, 4-1 in non-conference action, 4-1 in neutral-site games (all as a favorite) and 6-2 after a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI
EAST REGION
(at Jacksonville, Fla.)
(12) Cornell (27-4, 16-10 ATS) vs. (5) Temple (29-5, 22-11-1 ATS)
The Big Red won seven straight (3-4 ATS) down the stretch to claim the Ivy League title by two games. They won and covered in each of their last two on March 5 and 6, rolling to a 95-76 win at Brown as 14-point favorites and a 79-59 win at Yale as an 11-point chalk.
The Owls tied for the Atlantic 10 regular-season title with Xavier, but won the postseason conference tournament on Sunday with a 56-52 win over Richmond, pushing as four point favorites. Juan Fernandez led the way with 18 points for the Owls, who have now won 10 straight overall (8-1-1 ATS) and 12 of 13 (10-2-1 ATS).
Cornell has won three straight Ivy League titles to get the automatic Big Dance bid, but the Big Red flamed out quickly the last two years in noncompetitive losses to Stanford in 2008 (77-53 as a 16-point pup) and Missouri last year (78-59 as a 12-point pup). Cornell’s only other tourney trips came in 1954 and 1988, and it is still looking for its first victory.
Temple is making its 28th Tournament appearance and third in a row (all as the Atlantic 10 champion). However, like Cornell, the Owls haven’t hung around very long the last two years, bowing out early to Michigan State in 2008 (72-61 as a 6½-point pup) and Arizona State in 2009 (66-57 as a six-point underdog). The last time Temple scored a March Mayhem victory was in when it advanced to the Elite Eight in 2001.
Cornell is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 overall and 2-6 ATS in its last eight neutral-site games as a ‘dog, but it is on positive ATS runs of 10-0 against Atlantic 10 squads, 7-1 in non-conference action, 36-17-1 as a ‘dog and 5-2 in neutral-site games. It’s all positive ATS runs for Temple, including 57-28-2 overall, 40-17-1 as a chalk, 8-0-1 as a neutral-site favorite and 6-0-1 after a straight-up win.
The Big Red have topped the posted total in four straight against Atlantic 10 squads, but they are on “under” runs of 18-8 overall, 4-1 as a ‘dog and 3-1-1 as a neutral-site ‘dog. It’s been all “unders” for the Owls lately, including 6-1 overall, 12-4-1 in non-conference action, 6-1 as a favorite, 6-0 in neutral-site games, 6-1 after a straight-up win and 5-2-1 against Ivy League teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEMPLE and UNDER
(13) Wofford (26-8, 16-11-2 ATS) vs. (4) Wisconsin (23-8, 17-12 ATS)
The Terriers, who are riding a 13-game winning streak (6-5-2 ATS) and who have won 19 of their last 20 overall (10-8-2), captured the South Division of the Southern Conference and then swept through the postseason tournament to earn the automatic bid. They defeated North Division winner Appalachian State 56-51 in the title game back on March 8, barely cashing as a four-point chalk.
The Badgers closed the regular season with four straight wins (3-1 ATS) but got bumped off in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament by Illinois, losing 58-54 as 7½-point favorites. Wisconsin turned up the heat defensively late in the season, limiting the opposition to 52.8 points a game over the last five contests. For the season, the Badgers rank fourth in scoring defense (56.2 ppg).
While this is the Terriers’ first trip to the Big Dance, Wisconsin is making its 12th straight tourney appearance. In fact, after reaching this event just four times from 1941-1998, the Badgers have been here every year since 1999. They’ve also scored three straight first-round victories (2-0-1 ATS), including last year’s 61-59 overtime triumph over Florida State as a three-point underdog. Bo Ryan has led his squad to at least the second round seven times in the last eight years.
These teams met in the 2007 campaign with Wisconsin crushing the Terriers 70-43 but barely cashing as a whopping 26-point home favorite.
Wofford is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a neutral-site underdog, but otherwise is on positive ATS runs of 9-1 as an underdog, 21-7 in non-conference games and 5-2 against Big Ten opponents. Wisconsin is on ATS streaks of 4-1 against Southern Conference teams, 5-2 in non-conference games and 7-2 after a straight-up loss, but it has failed to cash in four of five neutral-site games and four straight as a neutral-site favorite.
For the Terriers, the under is on streaks of 12-5 after a straight-up win, 5-2 as an underdog and 5-2 in neutral-site games. The Badgers are also on several “under” runs, including 17-5 overall, 13-4 as a favorite, 4-1 in the Tournament and 5-2 in neutral-site games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WISCONSIN and UNDER
SOUTH REGION
(at Spokane, Wash.)
(13) Siena (27-6, 16-14-1 ATS) vs. (4) Purdue (27-5, 12-18-2 ATS)
Siena captured its third straight Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference championship, going 20-1 in league play, but it needed overtime to get past Fairfield in the tournament title game on March 8, prevailing 72-65 but falling short as an 8½-point favorite. The Saints have won five in a row (four by double digits) and since the MAAC season started in late December, they’re on a 21-2 SU run. However, both defeats (87-74 at conference foe Niagara; 70-53 Bracket Buster loss at Butler) were blowouts.
The Boilermakers are still licking their wounds after a disastrous showing in the Big Ten tournament semifinals Saturday, as they got clobbered by Minnesota 69-42 as a 2½-point favorite, scoring just 11 first-half points. The defeat snapped a three-game winning streak for Purdue, which also had separate winning streaks of 14 in a row (to start the season) and 10 in a row. However, the team suffered a major blow on Feb. 24 when junior forward Robbie Hummel (second-leading scorer and rebounder) suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Siena has qualified for the Big Dance for the third straight year, and it has pulled off a first-round upset each of the last two, knocking off Vanderbilt in 2008 (83-62 as a 6½-point underdog) and Ohio State last year (74-72 in overtime as a 2½-point pup). In fact, the Saints are 4-1 all-time in first-round tourney games.
Purdue is making its fourth straight trip to the Tournament, and last year it advanced to the Sweet 16 where it lost to eventual Final Four participant UConn, 72-60 as a seven-point ‘dog. The Boilermakers have won 11 consecutive first-round games dating to back to 1994, including last year’s hard-fought 61-56 win over Northern Iowa, just missing as an 8½-point favorite.
Siena played just one neutral-court contest, losing to St. John’s 77-68 as a 4½-point favorite. However, the Saints are still 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral outings, and they’re on additional positive pointspread streaks of 4-1-1 in the Tournament, 4-1 as a Tournament ‘dog and 35-17 after a non-cover. However, they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven after a victory and 1-4 ATS in their last five versus winning teams.
Prior to Saturday’s ugly loss to Minnesota, Purdue had won all five of its neutral-site games this season, but after covering in the first two, it has gone 0-2-2 ATS in the last four. Additionally, the Boilers are in ATS funks of 0-6-1 overall, 5-15-1 as a favorite, 0-4 when laying less than seven points and 0-4-1 versus winning teams.
The under is on runs of 7-0 for Siena overall, 5-1 for Purdue overall, 5-2 for Purdue at neutral sites, 5-1 for Purdue as a favorite, 4-1 for Purdue when laying points at neutral sites. Conversely, the over is on stretches of 7-2 for the Saints as an underdog, 20-8 for the Saints on Friday, 7-3-1 for the Boilermakers in the NCAA Tournament, 5-1 for the Boilermakers in non-conference play and 7-0 for the Boilermakers on Friday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SIENA
(12) Utah State (27-7, 18-11 ATS) vs. (5) Texas A&M (23-9, 18-10 ATS)
Utah State’s 17-game winning streak ended with Saturday’s 69-63 loss to New Mexico State in the Western Athletic Conference tournament championship game in Reno. The Aggies, who fell as a 10-point favorite, ended up being one of the last teams to receive an at-large berth. During the lengthy winning streak, Utah State posted 14 double-digit wins and went 14-3 ATS.
Texas A&M reached the Big 12 tournament semifinals, eventually bowing out to Kansas 79-66 last Friday as a nine-point underdog. The Aggies went 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS to finish the regular season, but failed to cover in both conference tourney contests. Also, Texas A&M played a slew of tight games down the stretch, with nine of its final 16 games decided by five points or less.
Utah State is in the Big Dance for the 19th time in school history and the fifth time since 2005, but it has gone one-and-done in each of the last four occasions. Last year, the Aggies suffered a heartbreaking 58-57 first-round loss to Marquette (covering as a six-point ‘dog), and they have just one tourney victory against 13 losses since 1970.
Texas A&M ended a 19-year NCAA Tournament drought in 2006 and has since qualified for this event every year, making this its fifth straight appearance. Not only that, but the Aggies are 4-0 SU and ATS in opening-round action since 2006, knocking off BYU each of the last two years (67-62 as a one-point favorite in 2008; 79-66 as a three-point ‘dog in 2009).
Utah State’s only neutral-site contests this year came in Reno last weekend for the WAC tournament, and it easily won and covered the first two against Boise State (84-60) and Louisiana Tech (85-55) before tumbling to New Mexico State. Meanwhile, A&M split its six neutral-site affairs both SU and ATS, though the underdog went 5-1 ATS.
Utah State is on ATS runs of 13-4 overall, 4-1 at neutral sites, 9-2 as an underdog, 8-2 as a pup of less than seven points, 4-0 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 7-2 against winning teams and 23-9-2 after a non-cover.
Likewise, A&M is on a plethora of pointspread surges, including 10-2 overall, 20-8 at neutral sites, 26-8 after a SU loss, 14-6 after a non-cover, 7-2 in the Tournament, 6-1 as a chalk, 25-10 when laying less than seven points, 4-1 as a Tournament favorite and 8-1 versus winning teams. The only downside: a 1-4 ATS mark both in non-conference games and as a favorite at neutral sites.
Utah State carries “under” trends of 5-2 overall, 7-3 outside the WAC, 5-0 in the Tournament (all as a ‘dog) and 4-1 on Friday, while Texas A&M is on “under” runs of 6-2 in non-conference play, 6-1 after a SU loss and 6-2 on Friday.
However, the over is on streaks of 5-2 for Utah State as a pup, 19-7 when Utah State is catching less than seven points, 5-0 for Utah State after a SU defeat, 9-2 for Utah State after a non-cover and 4-0 for Texas A&M when favored on a neutral floor.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
SOUTH REGION
(at Jacksonville, Fla.)
(16) Arkansas-Pine Bluff (18-15, 2-4 ATS) vs. (1) Duke (29-5, 18-13-2 ATS)
Arkansas Pine-Bluff advanced to this contest by pounding Winthrop 61-44 as a 3½-point underdog in Tuesday’s “play-in” game in Dayton, Ohio. The Golden Tigers led by just a point at halftime then rolled in the second half, outscoring Winthrop 37-21. Arkansas Pine-Bluff did it with defense, holding Winthrop to 29 percent shooting overall, including 2-for-21 from three-point land.
The Golden Lions, playing in their first-ever NCAA Tournament, have now won five in a row and 12 of their last 13, and their only two losses since mid-January came against Jackson State, which won the SWAC regular-season title.
Duke captured a record 18th ACC tournament title Sunday, barely sneaking past Georgia Tech 65-61 to get the league’s automatic bid. The Blue Devils won their three ACC tourney contests by a total of 18 points, but they failed to cover in all three, including as an 8½-point favorite against Georgia Tech. It’s the first time all season Duke has had three straight non-covers. On the bright side, coach Mike Krzyzewksi’s troops have won four in a row and 12 of 13, with eight of those being double-digit victories.
Duke has made 33 Tournament appearances in school history, including 14 in a row. The Blue Devils, who are a No. 1 seed for the 11th time overall and the sixth time this decade, got blasted by Villanova 77-54 in the Sweet 16 last year. However, they’re 12-1 SU in first-round Tournament action since 1996, including an 86-62 rout of Binghamton last year, barely cashing as a 23½-point chalk.
Arkansas Pine-Bluff, which rarely is involved in games that have a betting line, has followed up an 0-5 ATS slump with back-to-back spread-covers. Meanwhile, Duke’s current 0-3 ATS drought is part of a 2-5-2 ATS slump that goes back to Feb. 17. Additionally, the Blue Devils have failed to cover in six of their last seven Tournament games and 16 of 22 on Friday, but they’re 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a non-cover.
The Golden Lions stayed under the total in Tuesday’s “play-in” game, making the under 4-1 in their last five lined contests (all at neutral sites). Similarly, Duke is on “under” runs of 9-3 overall, 6-2 at neutral venues, 5-2 on Friday, 8-3 after a SU victory and 4-1 after an ATS setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(9) Louisville (20-12, 10-17 ATS) vs. (8) California (23-10, 19-13 ATS)
The Cardinals alternated wins and losses in their last six games. They closed the regular season with a 78-68 upset victory over top-ranked Syracuse as a one-point home underdog, but failed to capitalize on the momentum, getting knocked out of the Big East tournament with a 69-66 opening-round loss to Cincinnati as a six-point favorite. Rick Pitino’s squad has cashed just six times in 18 games since the calendar flipped to 2010.
Cal scored an at-large Tournament bid on the strength of a season-ending 9-2 SU and ATS run. However, one of those losses came in Saturday’s Pac-10 tournament title game, a 79-75 setback to Washington. The Bears lost outright as a two-point favorite, ending a six-game SU and ATS winning streak.
The Bears will be without starting forward Omondi Amoke (4.5 points, 4.6 rebounds per game), who has been suspended indefinitely for violating team rules.
Louisville made a run to the Elite Eight last year as a No. 1 seed, but with a ninth Final Four appearance on the line, the Cardinals were upset by Michigan State 64-52 as a 6½-point favorite. Louisville has made the Tournament seven of the last eight years dating to 2003, getting at least to the second round each of the last four seasons. This is the school’s 36th Big Dance appearance.
Cal returned to the Tournament last year for the first time since 2006, but made a quick exit falling to Maryland 84-71 as a 1½-point favorite in the first round. The Bears haven’t won a tourney game since 2003, and going back to 1994, they’re 3-5 in opening-round action.
The Cardinals have failed to cover in five of their last seven overall, four of their last five Tournament games and five of six non-conference contests. On the positive end, they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Pac-10 and 4-0 ATS in their last four after a defeat.
Cal’s negative ATS trends of 2-7 at neutral sites, 1-4 in the Tournament and 1-4 versus Big East foes are offset by positive pointspread surges of 6-1 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 5-2 after a SU loss, 5-1 after an ATS setback and 4-1 on Friday.
The over is on runs of 6-1 for Louisville outside the Big East, 4-1 for Louisville versus the Pac- 10, 13-6-1 for Louisville after a SU loss, 7-3 for the Bears overall, 5-2 for the Bears in the Tournament and 19-7 for the Bears at neutral sites. However, the under is 4-1-1 in the Cardinals’ last six overall and 7-0-1 in Cal’s last eight after a SU defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAL and OVER
Red Dog Sports
Duke/Ark PB Over 57.5 (1st Half)
In Thursday's first round games 14 of the 16 went over the 57.5 mark, all except ND/ODU and Robert Morris/Villanova as both games were close at the half. Ark Pine-Needles played many road games to start the year vs. decent big conference teams. Here were the scores:
Colorado 65
Denver 76
UTEP 68
Akron 61
AZ St only 54*
Ga Tech 62
Mich 64
Ok State 76
MO 69
KSU 73
Oregon only 51*
In Duke's opening round games in the NCAA's as a top seed they have easily reached the 60's. Duke will have plenty of fans and their talent should help them jump out to an early lead. Ark PB does have 4 players in the 10 ppg range but they have been playing some very low scoring games in the conference.
Duke should be happy to get out of the ACC after a tough game vs. Georgia Tech on Sunday. Their defense should lead to easy hoops and let's hope Scheyer can get hot outside as well as Singler. Look for Zoubek to score a few put backs too. The night game crowd should help get the players pumped.
The #1 seeds on Thursday played halftime scores that reached 80 (Ky) and 64 (Kansas).
Look for a 40-22 type of game that goes over the 57.5.
Karl Garrett
Boston (-1') at HOUSTON
In the NBA, don't mind laying a point or two with the visiting Celtics, as Boston does bring a little momentum into the start of this quick 3 game road swing.
The Celtics have won and covered their last pair of games, and will face a Houston team that is on a 4-game winning streak of their own. The Rockets however are just 5-14 against the spread their last 19 at home, and this series has been road-oriented.
The road team has won the last 3 series meetings, and 7 of the last 10 overall.
With stops at Dallas and Utah still to come on this trek, it is important for Boston to target this game as the one to get, and get it they will.
Take the Celts to get the win and cover.
4♦ BOSTON
New Mexico State (+13') vs. MICHIGAN STATE - at Spokane, WA
Gotta grab the points with the Aggies as they take on the Spartans who are definitely laying an inflated number tonight.
Remember, Michigan State went just 5-5 straight up over their closing 10 games leading into this first round matchup, and their 5-10 spread mark over their last 15 games doesn't bode well for laying double-digits tonight against the red-hot Aggies from Las Cruces.
New Mexico State has 5 double-digit scorers in their lineup, and they come into this one having won their last 3, and 7 of their last 9 straight up.
The Aggies did dump Utah State in the WAC tourney, and if they find their mark from long range, will be in this game until the bitter end.
Take the points and New Mexico State in this one.
1♦ NEW MEXICO STATE
Bobby Maxwell
Cornell vs. Temple (-3'), at Jacksonville, Fla.
I'm on a 68-41-3 streak with my FREE plays and today I've got a college hoops winner for you in the Big Dance as I lay the chalk with Temple in its matchup with Cornell.
Not quite sure why people think Temple is going to struggle today against Cornell. The Owls haven’t struggled against anybody lately, winning 10 straight and they have been a money-making machine, going 8-1-1 at the betting window in those 10.
Temple has been favored in all of those 10 games and come through eight times. The Owls blew out the competition in the A-10 tourney, until Richmond was able to sneak in the back door in the title game and get the push at 56-52.
The Owls’ Juan Fernandez is a tough matchup for anybody and point guard Lavoy Allen is the player that makes this team go. If he’s on his game and finding the open teammates, he will make it a long game for Cornell.
The Big Red’s Ivy League resume is impressive, but it is the Ivy League and it was a down year for that league. They ran away winning 15 of their last 16 games, but they were just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. Their non-conference losses this season were to Kansas, Syracuse and Seton Hall. That Seton Hall loss is ugly as they fell by 10 at home.
Temple will get the tempo in their favor, slow things down, execute and force Cornell into turnovers. The Owls allow just 49.2 points a game on a neutral court and limit the opposition to 33.8 percent shooting. They are money at the window, on ATS runs of 57-28-2 overall, 40-17-1 as favorites, 3-0-1 in neutral site games and 8-0-1 as a neutral site favorite.
Lay the small chalk and play Temple today.
5♦ TEMPLE
Louisville (pk) vs. Cal, at Jacksonville, Fla.
I nailed it with Murray State on Thursday in the opening round of the Big Dance, improving my free play record to 68-41-3 as the Racers nailed the buzzer-beater to take down Vanderbilt. Today I have another Big Dance winner for you as I go with Louisville to get the win and cover over California.
The Golden Bears are not exactly “tournament tough” as they showed last year when they were 1 ½-point favorites over Maryland and lost 84-71. They haven’t won a game in the Big Dance since 2003 and they are just 3-5 in their last eight first-round games.
Meanwhile, Louisville struggled to a mediocre regular season, but showed last year it is a tournament team, getting to the Elite Eight before losing to Michigan State. Each of the last four years, the Cardinals have gotten to the second round with coach Rick Pitino knowing how to get a team ready for this opening matchup. Give him time to dissect an opponent and he’ll have a gameplan in place.
Louisville beat then top-ranked Syracuse in the regular season finale, guaranteeing themselves a bid to the Big Dance. The Cardinals come into this one on ATS runs of 4-1 against Pac-10 teams and 4-0 after a loss.
Cal isn’t much at the betting window, going just 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, 1-4 in its last five NCAA tourney games and 1-4 against Big East opponents.
The Cardinals’ Edgar Sosa is a beast and Reginald Delk and Samardo Samuels know what it takes to win in the dance. Play Louisville tonight to win this one by 8 to 10 points.
4♦ LOUISVILLE
Chuck O'Brien
Oakland (+10) vs. Pittsburgh, at Milwaukee, WI
Take Oakland plus the points against Pittsburgh in Friday’s first-round Tournament action.
Last year, with a much more veteran, well-rounded team that included senior stars Levance Fields (guard), Sam Young (shooting forward) and DeJuan Blair (dominant center), Pitt captured a No. 1 seed and went all the way to the Elite Eight before suffering a heartbreaking two-point loss to Villanova with a trip to the Final Four on the line. However, the Panthers didn’t cover in any of their four Tournament games (all as a favorite), with their three wins coming by margins of 10, 8 and 5 points.
Last year’s run started with a scary 72-62 first-round victory over No. 16 seed East Tennessee State. Not only did Pitt never come close to covering as a 21-point chalk, it was anyone’s game with five minutes to play. And despite the veteran presence, the Panthers – coming off an eight-day layoff after losing in the first round of the Big East tournament – were sloppy (18 turnovers).
Well, this year, Pitt again lost in the first round of the Big East tournament and again is dealing with an eight-day layoff. The big difference between this year and last? The Panthers simply aren’t as good (and they certainly aren’t as experienced). And if last year’s veteran squad struggled with a 16-seed in the first round, it’s not a stretch to predict Pitt will have its hands full with 13th-seeded Oakland, which has won 20 of its last 21 games, including the last 11 in a row.
Going back to 2008, Pitt has actually failed to cash in five straight Big Dance games, all as a favorite. The Panthers are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site games. By comparison, Oakland has covered in five straight at neutral sites, and it is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six when catching points on a neutral floor.
3♦ OAKLAND
Brett Atkins
I handed out a free winner on Thursday's opening day of the Big Dance as Northern Iowa scored the outright upset of UNLV just like I said they would. Today I have another winner in the Big Dance as I go with Louisville in their matchup with Cal.
Louisville made it to the Elite Eight last season, and while I know it's a completely different team, they still have tournament experience and know how to win in this thing. On the other side, Cal hasn't won a tourney game since 2003 and the Bears are just 3-5 in their last eight first-round games.
The Cardinals have guys who know how to win, inlcuding Edgar Sosa, Samardo Samuels and Reginald Delk. They are on ATS runs of 4-1 against Pac-10 teams and 4-0 after a loss.
Cal comes in just 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, 1-4 in its last five NCAA Tourney games and 1-4 against Big East squads.
Cal has some internal problems while Louisville has had plenty of time to prepare for this one. Go with the Cardinals in this one.
4♦ LOUISVILLE
Jay McNeil
Cornell vs. Temple, at Jacksonville
Both 13th-seeded Murray State and 11th-seeded Old Dominion advanced yesterday, while 15th-seeded Robert Morris pushed Villanova into overtime.
And we all know how the 5 vs. 12 games have evolved into an upset benchmark in this Big Dance.
You think Cornell is motivated for its chance at making headlines?
I'm betting this could come down to the wire with how well Cornell shoots from the perimeter, ranking No. 1 in the country in three-point shooting. The Ivy League entry shoots 43.4 percent from the arc.
And while I know Temple opponents have averaged 28 percent, and the Owls rank fourth in three-point field goal defense, they haven't faced a team that can bury the trey like the Big Red, whose 27 wins tied the '98 Princeton team for second-most in a season by an Ivy League school.
The most impressive number I see, though, the one that solidifies it for me is that Cornell is on a 10-0 ATS run versus Atlantic 10 teams.
Take the pup.
2♦ CORNELL
Jeff Benton
Nailed a free-play winner with Northern Iowa (5♦) over UNLV in the opening round of the Big Dance. I’m now on runs of 39-21-2 and 29-15-2 with plays that I’m giving away! For Friday’s first-round Tournament freebie, I’ll lay the points with Michigan State against New Mexico State.
The Spartans spent the majority of the regular season in the Top 10/Top 15 of the national polls, and although they suffered an early exit in the conference tournament (72-67 overtime loss to Minnesota), I’m not about to write this team off. For one thing, losing in overtime to Minnesota (which went on to beat Purdue and reach the Big Ten tournament title game) was hardly an embarrassment. For another thing, many of the parts that were in place for last year’s run to the national championship game are still there, including the most important of all: veteran coach Tom Izzo, who knows how to navigate the Tournament.
With Izzo leading the way, the Spartans have at least advanced to the Sweet 16 eight times in the last 12 years, including five Final Four appearances. Over the past three years, Michigan State has scored three straight double-digit first-round victories, going 3-0 ATS. During this three-year stretch, Michigan State is 8-3 SU and ATS, with the winner covering the spread in all 11 games.
New Mexico State is a nice team. But if it hadn’t upset Utah State in Saturday’s WAC tournament title game, it would be playing in the NIT right now. Clearly, the Aggies had a matchup edge against Utah State, as they won two of three this year (two of only three losses Utah State suffered in its final 20 games). Aside from Utah State, the only other quality opponents NMSU faced were New Mexico (twice), UTEP (twice) and St. Mary’s. It went 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in those five games, losing by margins of 32, 10, 21 and 17 points. They also lost by 32 points at UCLA!
This is just the Aggies’ second Big Dance appearance this decade, and they haven’t won a Tournament game since 1993. Since that win, NMSU is 0-4 in the tourney, losing by margins of 37, 10, 22 and 12 points. Lot of value with Michigan State, which will be out to make a statement tonight and record another double-digit first-round win.
5♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Joel Tyson
Early Friday release, as I back Temple minus the points over Cornell.
The Owls are humming with 10 straight wins, and they have also gone a positive 8-1-1 against the spread in that span.
Big Red no slouch either, winning 7 straight, but they were ALL against Ivy competition, and I have my doubts about that talent level.
The Ivy League rep has not won a Big Dance game since 1998, and with this spread being so low, Cornell almost has to win in order to cover.
Prior to Friday's Richmond loss, the Atlantic 10 was on a 5-0-1 spread run since 2005 in the Dance.
Take Temple minus the short number.
4♦ TEMPLE
Golden Contender
Minnesota at Xavier
Pick: Xavier
The Musketeers have several solid angles in their favor today. They are 9-1 off a conference loss,32-7 after allowing 80 or more, 2-0 as a n-dog of 3 or less, 16-8 vs winning teams and 6-1 ats in the NCAAB Tournament the past few years. Minnesota is one of the few teams that are actually below .500 vs winning teams and they are 0-3 in this Tournament. Look for Xavier to get the cash today.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors
The Thunder come off a disappointing loss to Charlotte on Wednesday in this very price range. Can't see lightning, let alone Thunder, striking twice, so to speak. They have been a great bet all season off all year off a loss (19-5 ATS), particularly if it came on the road (11-2 ATS). Toronto has been terrible against the pointspread for a month (1-10-1 ATS L12) and was lucky to beat Atlanta at home last time out. The Raptors are 6-16 ATS as a home dog of six points or less.
Play on: Oklahoma City
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Minnesota pk
With the 11-seed Minnesota favored by 1 point when the line opened before the public started pounding Xavier, I believe the odds makers were tipping their hand. Minnesota is the more experienced team, and it gained a ton of confidence when it defeated both Michigan State and Purdue in the Big Ten Tourney. But the fact that the Gophers were absolutely drilled by Ohio State in the Big Ten Tourney title game leaves them hungry. In fact, Minnesota is 11-3 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win in these spots by an average score of 68.9 to 58.7. The Golden Gophers are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss of more than 20 points. Xavier is still a good ball club, but not the same team we saw last year when it made a little run in the tourney. The Golden Gophers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for Minnesota to get the job done.
Sac Lawson
NMex St +13 vs Michigan St.
To me, this game is very very similar to the Montana game last night. You've got a team that most people didn't think had a chance at making the dance, and they go out and grab the conference title in tournament time. NMSU is flat out hot right now, simple as that. Michigan St. is one of those teams that was on everyone's radar early in the year, as they are every year, and has flat out underperformed. In my estimation, their struggled have been in large part to their lack of frontcourt efficiency. Every year it seems MSU has a couple big bodies down low that pound the offensive boards and make it extremely tough on the opposition, this year they simply don't have that force. In fact, NMSU is actually the taller team in the frontcourt with 7-footer Hamidu Rhaman in there.
The thing about Michigan State is that they have really never been a great three point shooting team, and this year's club is no exception. They love to get to the lane, knock down 12 foot jumpers, penetrate and dish, etc. and that's why the frontcourt presence is usually so huge, any missed shot comes off soft and is ripe for a put back. They still do a fine job on the offensive glass, statistically, but this is one of those situations where people that go by stats don't know the whole story. Having watched this team play a few times this year, it was apparent that teams with size (North Carolina, Illinois, Wisconsin, Florida) all kept MSU off the glass, and as a result the Spartans struggled. NMSU has the one big body down low that i eluded to earlier, and they've also got very athletic forwards/guards that can hold their own on the glass as well.
Fact is, NMSU can shoot their way into any game. This is a team that can heat up from deep in an instant, and as a result, no Spartan lead will be large enough. Michigan St. has a long travel to this one, and just as we backed a Montana team that can shoot the lights out last night, we'll back an NMSU team that can shoot the lights out tonight. Upsets in the tournament are stemmed from three pointers, take the points with teams that can knock em down fellas, especially when they're having to do no more traveling than they do for their standard conference trip. 1 unit on NMSU!
Maryland -9.5 vs Houston
This one should be a shootout guys, and the reasoning behind this game is pretty simplistic, so I'll be brief.
Both these teams can score in bunches so what we're looking for is the team that will sustain consistent scoring, play better defense, rebound better, and make their free throws. It just so happens, Maryland is the better team in each category.
I'll be the first to admit just how much I love this Houston team. Kelvin Lewis and Aubrey Coleman are really something else, but their shot selection is piss poor. Both of these guys can get to the rim like it's nothing, yet both of them are content with 15 foot jump shots over a defenders hand. Their shooting percentage has been low all year because of that.
On the other side of the ball you've got a Maryland team that is literally in the top 10 defenses in the nation. They give up points, but only because their games are so fast.. they actually defend very well, and we see that in the field goal percentages their opponents shoot. Houston on the other hand is one of those defensive teams that goes for bust every possession. They take a ton of chances to force turnovers, and in the mean time they allow easy buckets. Maryland has played some of the best defensive teams in the nation out in the ACC, any sort of pressure defense from Houston will be a cake walk in terms of what the Terps have seen this year.
In the other areas, it's simple.. Maryland has a better FT%, and Houston is flat out one of the worst rebounding teams in the tournament.... This line is quite high, and I think it's just begging for those folks that watched Houston in the Conference USA tourny to jump on the bandwagon... In reality, it's the perfect time to jump off! 1 unit on Maryland!
Great Lakes Sports
Siena vs Purdue
Play: Purdue
The Purdue Boilermakers are a solid 3-1-1 ATS their last five Friday night encounters, and the Purdue Boilermakers are 3-1-1 ATS their last five games following a straight up loss of more than twenty points. Siena is a terrible 1-4 ATS their last five games vs a team with a winning straight up record, and they are a dismal 1-6 ATS their last seven games following a straight up win. We look for the Purdue Boilermakers to grab the NCAA tournament ATS Win&Cover tonight.
arrow