EZWINNERS
Sienna Saints +4
This is a great match up for Sienna. Sienna should control the glass in this game. The Saints have out rebounded their opponents this season by almost five rebounds per game and since the loss of Robbie Hummel to a torn ACL, Purdue has been out rebounded 178 to 199 in five games. Three point shooting is also in favor of the Saints in this match up. The Boilermakers don't shoot the three very well nor do they defend the three point shot very well. Purdue only has one real threat from downtown in E'Twaun Moore while Sienna has several capable shooters that can drain some threes against Purdue's poor perimeter defense. Purdue is just not the same team without their star Robbie Hummel. The Boilermakers do not have an experienced true point guard to run the show, while Sienna has Ronald Moore who is the nations assist leader and will be playing in his fifth NCAA tournament game. That is a huge advantage for the Saints. Sienna is a very experienced team that comes into this tournament on a hot streak while Purdue is still trying to adjust to life without its star player. Wrong team is favored here, take the points.
Derek Mancini
Oklahoma City at TORONTO (+1')
Too much love for Oklahoma City here. Public is intoxicated by the Thunder in this match up, staring at their 21-12 record ATS away and happy to lay less than a basket to play them at Toronto... If only betting NBA games were that easy!
After a much-needed home win over Atlanta in their last contest, I'm projecting a more confident Raptors team, that'll do everything in their power to keep from starting another losing streak. Remember, the last time these two met in this building, the Raptors rolled to a 16 point victory. The time before that, they won by 8... Toronto is still a ver y respectable 23-10 at home (better than OKC's 22-11 home record).
Couple moves by coach Triano make sense, especially reinserting Calderon into the starting lineup. Jarret Jack is having a nice season, but he's better suited off the bench, Calderon is a playmaker when he's using his head. He also lit a fire under Bargnani's ass by pulling him the other day for failing to box out against the Blazers. If these two players can get going, Toronto will get back to being a decent team. In the meanwhile, they're playing hard (at least for now) and looking to build off their Hawks win. Raptors plus the points in this contest.
1♦ TORONTO
Florida State (-1') vs Gonzaga, at Buffalo, NY
Gamblers are counting on the Zags to bounce back from that St. Mary's loss here, but I'd be very careful with that line of thinking in this match up. Gonzaga lost that game because they faced a superior defense, and while they did shut down Samhan, it came at the cost of leaving the wings wide open all game.
Can see many of the same issues here tonight. Of course, FSU's Alabi is no Samhan, but the 7-footer makes up one half of the 'Noles excellent frontline, which features him and the 6'9 Singleton. Everyone loves talking about the Zags edge in the backcourt, but what about Florida State's edge upfront?
Its offense vs defense in a classic battle, but don't be so quick to dismiss the Seminoles offense. They played in a tougher league, and had a much tougher strength of schedule (FSU 59 vs Gonzaga 121)... Facing ACC defenses day in and day out, will limit your offensive stats. Unlike the Zags, who played some pretty awful teams and padded their stats accordingly (Pepperdine, Santa Clara to name a few). Lay the points, as Florida State's size and edge on defense are the difference tonight.
2♦ FLORIDA STATE
Matt Rivers
Siena +4.5 over Purdue
I do admit that backing the Saints and only getting about four points is not the greatest value ever. It is sort of like Murray State yesterday as you pretty much need to believe the dog is going to win the game (as the Racers did in the end) against the far bigger program but I’ll still scoop up the points here with Siena.
I don’t think that Purdue is a dead team even without Robbie Hummel and even with the struggles to end the season. But with that said Matt Painter’s team does have offensive issues right now for sure and against a fairly high flying Siena squad could allow that 11-2 type of a run and never recover.
I do love the Boilermakers’ experience as these guys are senior laden and normally play well as a team but they have literally been scoring in the 40’s recently and do not come into this thing with the confidence that we saw earlier in the season when there was talk about the Boilers being a one seed.
E’twaun Moore, Jajuan Johnson and the favorites will have a chip on their shoulder and play hard as everybody is talking negatively about them but Fran McCaffrey’s team is not your typical smaller MAAC type program.
Siena has been there and done that of late. They won each of the last few seasons in this spot and have been by far the best team in the MAAC for a while now. Kenny Hasbrouck is gone and therefore the team may not be as good as last season but the talent level is still high and in the end they will compete enough today to get it done.
Pick: Siena
Tom Freese
Houston at Maryland
Prediction: Maryland
Houston is 15-15 this year. Guard Aubrey Coleman scores 25.6 and 7.4 rebounds a game. Guard Kelvin Lewis scores 15.3 points a game. No other players score double digit points. The Cougars score 78.6 points a game. Houston is 7-16 ATS their last 23 games off a straight up win and they are 4-9 ATS last 13 Non-Conference games. Maryland is 23-7 this year and they are led by guard Greivis Vasquez and his 19.5 points and 6.3 assists. Landon Milbourne scores 12.5 points a game. Guard Eric Hayes scores 11.1 points a game. Guard Sean Mosley scores 10.5 points a game. The Terps score 79.3 points a game. Maryland is 12-4 ATS their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 9-2 ATS their last 11 games as favorites. PLAY ON MARYLAND -
Larry Ness
Georgia Tech @ Oklahoma State
PICK: Oklahoma State -1.5
Ga Tech was just 7-9 during the regular season in the ACC but won three tourney games before falling to Duke 65-61 in the ACC title game. Tech (22-12) got an at-large bid while Va Tech, 23-8 (including 10-6 in the ACC), got stuck in the NIT. The Yellow Jackets have excellent size, with vets like the 6-9 Lawal (13.1-8.7) and the 6-8 Peacock (8.7-4.1) being joined by 6-10 freshman Favors (12.5-8.5). Favors leads the nation in FG percentage (61.2) and has topped double digits in nine straight games (16.7 per in that stretch). The backcourt is big as well, as guards Shumpert (10.1-3.5-4.0) and Bell (6.3-2.6) are 6-5 and 6-6, respectively. They get help on the perimeter from two freshman, 6-5 guard Rice (5.2-3.) and 6-6 swingman Oliver (7.0). The Cowboys own the Big 12's p-o-y in the 6-6 Anderson (22.6-5.8), who gets plenty of help from the 6-5 Muonelo (13.4-5.1) and sophomore guard Page (10.7). The 6-7 Moses (8.7-8.2) came into his own the second half of last year and has been solid this year, helped put front by 6-8 Hampton transfer Pilgrim (8.3-6.8). Pilgrim will have to slow down Favors and he's known that since the matchups were announced last Sunday. The Cowboys will have to shoot well from outside to win but there is no reason to think they won't. Anderson, Muonelo and Page have combined for 223 three-pointers this season, with all three shooting 35 percent or better from beyond the arc. Tech has been inconsistent all season and off four tough ACC games, could easily fall prey to Anderson and Company's fast-paced perimeter game. Expect the Cowboys to advance.
BIG AL
Georgia Tech @ Oklahoma State
PICK: Oklahoma State -1
Okie St is a terrific 27-5 ATS since 1991 vs. non-conference foes off a loss, if the game is being played in Stillwater, or on a neutral court. Take the Cowboys.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on FSU/Gonzaga UNDER 132
Bottom Line: Plays Under on neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (GONZAGA) - in a game involving 2 slow-down teams (<=55 shots/game), after 15+ games, are 126-62 since 1997 for a 67% win rate. Gonzaga averages 77.6 ppg on the season because it is able to shoot a ridiculous 49.4% from the field against weaker competition in the WCC. The Zags won't come anywhere near that against a Florida State squad that leads the country in field goal percentage defense, allowing its opponents to shoot just 37.4% from the field. With this in mind, combined with the pace each of these teams prefer to play, we'll take the Under.
THE PREZ
Louisville vs California
It was not a stellar day for the Big East yesterday in the NCAA Tournament, but we see that changing here in this favorable matchup between the Louisville Cardinals and the California Golden Bears.
The Pac-10 was terrible this season, and although California won the regular season title, that is not saying much in a conference that was not as good as some mid-majors this year, and we also do not like the way the Golden Bears finished the season. Cal had every chance to win the Pac-10 Tournament Final vs. Washington, but for lack of a better word, they choked down the stretch, and we feel the pressure will be too much for them vs. a stiff Louisville defense.
Granted, the Cardinals are not one of the upper echelon Big East teams, but they did sweep the season series from Syracuse, and though inconsistent, they have proven that they can beat anyone when they come to play. As erratic as they were, Louisville still finished 21 in the country in offensive efficiency and 76 in defensive efficiency, and they have been toughened by the nightly Big East Wars.
The bottom line here is that California represents a step down in class from the teams Louisville usually faces, and we look for the Cardinals to take full advantage with a rather safe win.
Pick: Louisville +1
LT PROFITS
Utah State vs Texas A&M
While there is no doubt that the Big12 is better than the WAC, the Utah State Aggies are the best team in the WAC and we give them the edge here over the other Aggies from Texas A&M.
In fact, Utah State is ranked higher overall in the Pomeroy Ratings (17) than Texas A&M is (24), which should give you an idea of just how talented the boys from Logan are. They are also one of the most fundamentally sound and well coached teams in the country.
This can be seen with just a quick glance at Pomeroy, as Utah State turns the ball over on just 16.3 percent of offensive possessions, ranking 13 in the country in that category, and they are also second in the land in three-point shooting at an amazing 42.1 percent. They rank 13 in offensive efficiency overall, as well as a very good 52 in defensive efficiency, so their 27-7 record is definitely no accident.
Now Texas A&M finished at 23-9 while playing in possibly the best conference in the country, but unlike Utah State which went 10-6 away from home, A&M did not travel as well, going just 8-8 away from College Station. Perhaps most telling is the fact that they were outscored by -1.2 points per game away from home compared to a +4.5 AMOV for Utah State, and their underrated opponent here is at least on par with the lower echelon teams of the Big 12.
We will side with better traveling Aggies team with more to prove in this spot, and that would be Utah State.
Pick: Utah State +3
Stan Lisowski
OKLAHOMA CITY
The Thunder have been resilient off of a loss this year covering at a 79% clip after a beat. They have won 8 of their last 10 games outright while Toronto has dropped 8 of 10. The Raptors are 18-32 ATS their past 50 games against Western Conference teams while they are only 11-26 as an underdog this season.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Philadelphia 76ers +3.5
The 76ers will be out for revenge tonight after falling to the Knicks Monday, and I expect them to get it. From a point spread perspective, this series has been dominated by the road team. In fact, the road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the 76ers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New York. Plus, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Also, the Knicks have not proven that they can be trusted laying points as they are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll take the 76ers in this one.
Info Plays
3* on Purdue -4
Reasons why the Boildermakers cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PURDUE) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 80%). This is a 61-20 ATS System hitting 75.3% since 1997. This system has gone a superb 19-2 over the last 5 seasons.
2.) The books have set this line so low due to the injury to Robbie Hummel for Purdue. The Boilermakers still have plenty of playmakers to get the job done, and this is still a team that went 27-5 with one of the toughest schedules. The Boildermakers are 13-2 in their last 15 games overall. Their bad loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament serves as motivation heading into the Big Dance, and Purdue comes out angry this afternoon. Bet Purdue.
Black Widow
1* on Temple -3.5
The Owls have been disrespected all season long. This line has steadily been dropping, with the public pounding Cornell. But the Ivy League is one of the worst conferences in the country, while the Atlantic-10 is one of the stronger conferences we have. Temple stormed through it, going 29-5 overall to win the regular season and A-10 Tournmanet titles. Temple also did some damage out of conference which really shows how good this team is. They beat Virginia Tech, Villanova and Seton Hall and lost by just 1 point to Georgetown on the road. Everyone is putting a lot of stock into Cornell's slim loss at Kansas earlier this season, but the fact of the matter is they really don't have any impressive out-of-conference wins this season. Temple is 22-12 ATS in all games this season. Temple is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games this season. Cornell is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Take Temple and lay the points.
Wunderdog
Minnesota U vs. Xavier Total
Play: Under 143
This total is very high looking to me with a Big-10 team and the defensive nature of the conference, so it's surprising to see this one in the 140s. Minnesota may not fit that form as well as other Big-10 teams, but it is still a team that has failed to get out of the 60s in 11 of their last 16 games, and 12 of 16 if you don't include overtime. The Musketeers played all three of their tourney games a year ago to the UNDER with no game totaling more than 136. On a neutral court, the Musketeers have also turned in a 10-3 mark to the UNDER in their last 13 and vs. Big-10 teams, they are 5-2 to the UNDER as well. The Golden Gophers have been slowed down by good teams where they are 9-4 to the UNDER vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600. I'll ride with the UNDER in this one.
Jack Jones
Siena vs. Purdue Purdue
Pick: Purdue -4
The odds makers are putting too much emphasis on the injury to Robbie Hummel of Purdue, and thus the Boildermakers are showing tremendous value Friday. Purdue is still a senior-led team with plenty of talent to get by a Siena team from the weak MAAC conference. They have also had extra time to practice playing without Hummel after losing early in the Big Ten Tournament to Minnesota. That was an embarrassing loss for the Boilermakers, and I strongly feel that kind of a loss will re-focus this group and they'll come out with their best effort today.
This play also falls under a system that is 61-20 (75.3%) since 1997. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PURDUE) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 80%). The value is clearly with Purdue Friday. Take the Boilermakers.