DUNKEL INDEX
Minnesota at LA Lakers
The Timberwolves look to take advantage of a Lakers team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite of 11 points or more. Minnesota is the pick (+15 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by only 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+15 1/2)
Game 801-802: Detroit at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.149; Indiana 116.700
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 2 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-2 1/2); Over
Game 803-804: Oklahoma City at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 118.314; Toronto 115.335
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-1); Under
Game 805-806: Charlotte at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 118.098; Atlanta 125.777
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 7 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 5; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-5); Under
Game 807-808: Philadelphia at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 112.263; New York 113.997
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 3 1/2; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Over
Game 809-810: Cleveland at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.897; Chicago 114.707
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 9; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 10 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+10 1/2); Under
Game 811-812: Boston at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 120.040; Houston 119.687
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 2 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Under
Game 813-814: Golden State at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 114.842; San Antonio 125.225
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 10 1/2; 222
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 11; 220 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+11); Over
Game 815-816: Utah at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 121.800; Phoenix 127.974
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 235
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 222 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3 1/2); Over
Game 817-818: Washington at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 111.662; Portland 124.512
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 13; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 12; 191
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-12); Under
Game 819-820: Milwaukee at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 125.562; Sacramento 117.002
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 8 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-3); Under
Game 821-822: Minnesota at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 110.830; LA Lakers 123.111
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 12 1/2; 213
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 15 1/2; 216
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+15 1/2); Under
NCAAB
Vermont vs. Syracuse
The Catamounts look to build on their 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 games against teams with a winning SU record. Vermont is the pick (+17 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Orange favored by only 13. Dunkel Pick: Vermont (+17 1/2)
Game 823-824: Vermont vs. Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: Vermont 58.266; Syracuse 71.037
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 13
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vermont (+17 1/2)
Game 825-826: Florida State vs. Gonzaga
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 67.966; Gonzaga 67.275
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 1
Vegas Line: Florida State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (+1 1/2)
Game 827-828: Morgan State vs. West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 54.356; West Virginia 71.744
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 17
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-17)
Game 829-830: Missouri vs. Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 65.655; Clemson 71.628
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 6
Vegas Line: Clemson by 1
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-1)
Game 831-832: Cornell vs. Temple
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 61.561; Temple 66.009
Dunkel Line: Temple by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Temple by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-3 1/2)
Game 833-834: Wofford vs. Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 60.304; Wisconsin 69.945
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 10
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (+10)
Game 835-836: AR-Pine Bluff vs. Duke
Dunkel Ratings: AR-Pine Bluff 48.109; Duke 76.435
Dunkel Line: Duke by 28 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 837-838: Louisville vs. California
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 68.711; California 70.630
Dunkel Line: California by 2
Vegas Line: Louisville by 1
Dunkel Pick: California (+1)
Game 839-840: UC-Santa Barbara vs. Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Santa Barbara 57.543; Ohio State 73.486
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 16
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 17
Dunkel Pick: UC-Santa Barbara (+17)
Game 841-842: Georgia Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 66.698; Oklahoma State 70.002
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-1 1/2)
Game 843-844: Oakland vs. Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 58.574; Pittsburgh 68.319
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+10 1/2)
Game 845-846: Minnesota vs. Xavier
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 69.748; Xavier 69.314
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (+1)
Game 847-848: New Mexico State vs. Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 62.288; Michigan State 70.730
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+13 1/2)
Game 849-850: Houston vs. Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 62.501; Maryland 71.952
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 9
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-9)
Game 851-852: Utah State vs. Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 69.819; Texas A&M 73.405
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-2 1/2)
Game 853-854: Siena vs. Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 63.290; Purdue 68.089
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 5
Vegas Line: Purdue by 4
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-4)
NHL
San Jose at Calgary
The Sharks look to take advantage of a Calgary team that is 1-5 in its last 6 against the Pacific Division. San Jose is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Sharks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+110)
Game 51-52: Minnesota at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.720; Columbus 11.945
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-150); Under
Game 53-54: San Jose at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.171; Calgary 10.376
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+110); Under
Game 55-56: Detroit at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.434; Edmonton 11.983
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+210); Over
Game 57-58: NY Islanders at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.632; Anaheim 11.941
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Nelly
Houston + over Boston
Don't count out Houston just yet. The Rockets have picked up four consecutive wins including impressive home wins this week over Denver and Memphis. The Rockets maintain a solid 20-14 S/U record at home and this season Houston is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog. There have been some impressive home wins for Houston this season, including wins over Portland, Denver, Milwaukee, Dallas, Cleveland, and Oklahoma City, as well as a one-point OT loss against the Lakers. Boston remains a lousy ATS performer and this team has lost S/U and ATS in each of the last two road games. For the season the season the Celtics have 22-12 road record but Boston is just 3-3 in the last six games as road favorites. Boston has also had a lot of travel in the last two weeks while Houston will be playing a fourth straight home game as the team appears to be finding its comfort zone.
John Ryan
Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Houston Rockets
3* graded play on Houston as they take on Boston set to start at 8:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Houston will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and also has an excellent chance to win the game. Model shows that Houston will shoot between 43 and 47% in this game. Note that Boston is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game this season. Based on the sound shooting, Houston is also goig to score between 99 and 104 points. Note that Houston is 27-14 ATS in past games scoring between 99 and 104 points. Boston has won 3 of 4 games and scored 119 and 109 in the last 2 games. Note that Boston is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season. Take Houston.
SPORTS WAGERS
SACRAMENTO +1.53 over Milwaukee
The Bucks bubble burst on Wednesday night and in a league of real peaks and valleys, all signs of the Bucks coming back down to earth are there. We saw a similar pattern with the Raptors when they were scorching hot and then barely beat the Wizards in Toronto before they went on that ugly losing streak. The Bucks barely hung on to beat the Pacers by four on Sunday and followed that up with a loss at the Clip Joint last night. Now they’ll play in Sacramento against a Kings squad that is playing well again and it’s worth noting that Arco can be very tough on opponents. The Bucks are simply not that dominant a team to sustain a run like the one they just came off of and it’s safe to say that the Kings chances of winning this one is better than the visitors chances. The Kings come to play every single game at home and will be ready once again to play against a team from the inferior conference. Play: Sacramento +1.18 (Risking 2 units).
Scott Delaney
Missouri vs. Clemson, at Buffalo
Got a pair of teams that like to play an aggressive style and that force a lot of turnovers. And though Missouri is a well-balanced team that has a lot of depth, something tells me the ACC entry in this showdown is going to pull one out.
The problem I have with Missouri is because of the advantage it has from beyond the arc, it could very well get carried away from three-point land, and stray from its game plan.
Live by the three and die by the three ... I talked about that yesterday.
And if the Tigers from the Big 12 start missing shots, I am going to bank on Clemson's biggest advantage, which is Trevor Booker, a low post force who will windex the boards for me at free will.
Believe me, Mizzou doesn't have anyone who can handle Booker one-on-one.
He is undoubtedly my X-factor in this game, as Missouri's frontcourt is dinged up with forward Justin Safford done for the season courtesy of a knee injury and fellow forward Lawrence Bowers headed for postseason surgery after suffering torn ligaments in his wrist. Bowers will play, but I doubt he'll be effective.
Looking at the ATS numbers, Missouri is mired in skids of 1-5 as an underdog, 0-5 after a double-digit home loss and 0-4 overall. On the flipside, Clemson is on winning streaks of 5-0 in non-conference play, 4-1 after a spread setback, 11-4 as the installed chalk and 5-2 on Fridays.
Take the ACC Tigers in this one.
1♦ CLEMSON
Craig Davis
Today's complimentary play is on Oakland PLUS the points over Pittsburgh.
No disrespect to the Panthers and head coach Jamie Dixon; shoot, what they've done this year has been nothing short of remarkable. But be honest: when he lost Fields, Blair and Young, did you see them as a three-seed in this tournament? I didn't. Dixon has taken this young team and put them in a position to make some noise after playing a brutal regular season schedule.
But for all the accolades Pitt deserves for the year, they are the reason I'm selecting Oakland as my comp play. I don't really trust young teams in the tournament, and for everything the Panthers accomplished in the regular season, it all starts over today, and I'm not sure they are quite ready for the pressure that comes along with this post-season dance.
Oakland, on the other hand, enters tonight's game having won 11 straight and 20 of its last 21, and despite not playing the same caliber teams Pitt has, 20 wins is still 20 wins no matter how you slice it.
Oakland is averaging 75 ppg. That's fairly impressive no matter what conference you play in, especially when you consider they scored more than 80 points 13 times. I don't think Pitt should be laying this many points to anyone, let alone a team that can score like this.
I like Oakland PLUS the number as your free play of the day.
3♦ OAKLAND
Michael Cannon
Missouri (+1) vs. Clemson, at Syracuse, NY
I am 14-5 with my last 19 overall free plays.
Take Missouri as the small dog over Clemson.
I don’t trust Clemson at all. They suffered first-round exits at the hands of Villanova in 2008 and Michigan in 2009. In fact, Clemson hasn’t won a Tournament game since 1997.
Missouri made it to the Elite Eight last year where it fell to UConn, 82-75. The Tigers have won four straight first-round games (3-1 ATS) going back to 2001.
Clemson is on pointspread slides of 6-20 in its last 26 neutral-site games as a chalk and 0-9 in its last nine neutral-site games overall.
Missouri is on ATS streaks of 10-3 after a SU loss, 9-3 in Tournament games and 7-3 at neutral sites.
Take Missouri as they get it done over Clemson.
3♦ MISSOURI
Florida State vs. Gonzaga (+1'), at Syracuse, NY
Take Gonzaga plus the small number over Florida State.
The Zags rank 6th in the nation in shooting percentage (49 percent), and can attack from the inside or from the perimeter. It’s going to be tough going against Florida State’s stingy defense, but I feel like the Bulldogs run their offense well enough that they will create the necessary open looks.
Florida State doesn’t have a good perimeter game, so it will be up to the Seminoles frontcourt to get the job done. But Gonzaga has enough size inside with Robert Sacre and Elias Harris that they won’t allow Florida State to dominate on the offensive glass.
The Seminoles have been a money-burner at the betting window lately. Florida State is on ATS slides of 8-20 overall, 6-18 against teams with a winning record, 1-4 in non-conference games, 1-5 after a non-cover and 0-4 as a chalk.
Gonzaga is on pointspread streaks of 4-0 in non-conference games, 6-1 as an underdog, 4-1 after a SU loss and 8-1 against teams with a winning record.
Take Gonzaga as they get it done over Florida State.
3♦ GONZAGA
Chris Jordan
Louisville vs. California (E), at Jacksonville
Going to play the Pac 10 entry in this one, as the Golden Bears will roll past Rick Pitino's boys tonight.
I'll be real honest with you, as much as I like Pitino, I haven't been too fond of what his team has been doing the entire season. And I think the Selection Committee gifted him a bid, and was likely thankful the Cardinals got a 20th win by knocking off Syracuse, so they could invite Pitino.
He's a colorful character and always good to have in the Big Dance.
That being said, the Cardinals will get bounced out of this one. Eight teams out of the Big East, and yesterday the first four went 1-3? Yeah, the Cardinals got to go.
Louisville's last three losses: Cincinnati (playing in the Little Dance); Marquette, which lost to Washington yesterday; and Georgetown, which was swatted from the Dance by lowly Ohio. And let's not forget this is the same Cardinals team that was knocked off by Charlotte, Western Carolina and Big East lightweights St. John's and Seton Hall.
Sorry, but the Cardinals are going to lose badly to the Pac 10 regular season champs. Cal played a decent non-conference schedule that included Big Dance teams Murray State, Syracuse, Ohio State, New Mexico, Kansas, Santa Barbara and Washington (twice).
The Bears steamroll into the Big Dance on ATS runs of 5-1 off an ATS loss, 4-1 in non-conference play and 6-1 overall. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are in on ATS setbacks of 1-4 in the Big Dance, 1-5 in non-conference play and 2-5 overall.
All Cal, as the Pac 10 makes it 2-0 against the Big East.
3♦ CALIFORNIA
Siena vs. Purdue, at Spokane
Barack likes Siena.
So even though I could care less about the Prez's picks, I give him props that he's on the right side of this viable underdog.
Thirteenth-seeded Siena should be able to follow in Murray State's footsteps, by challenging and scoring the outright upset win by a double-digit underdog.
Purdue's Robbie Hummel injured his knee on Feb. 24, and the Boilermakers' hopes for a run to the Final Four were sidelined just the same.
Let me put this in perspective for you:
With Hummel, the Boilermakers raced out to a 24-3 record and averaged 73 points per game thanks to a 46 percent shooting edge from the field. Without him they were 3-2 and averaged a mere 59 points per game behind 38 percent shooting.
Even worse, the Boilermakers are in after scoring a season-low 42 points in a Big Ten tournament loss to Minnesota, as their 11-point first half was their lowest output since the school began keeping records 60 years ago.
Now they have to face a hungry and experienced Saints team that joins Xavier as the only two tournament teams from a "mid-major" conference to win in the Big Dance in each of the last two seasons. The Saints start three seniors and two juniors, and they know how to win in the Dance.
That's enough for me. Take the Saints.
2♦ SAINTS
O.C. Dooley
Utah State/Texas A&M UNDER 125
The key to this selection is that it is the main goal of the Texas A+M defense to force Utah State into the lane more often. The reason for this is because Utah State is hitting 42% of their “three point” long range opportunities this season even though one has to keep in mind that the Western Athletic Conference has never specialized in defensive intensity. Today marks just the THIRD time this entire season that we have seen a Utah State total in the 120’s which gives you an idea just how high scoring a league the Western Athletic is. The last time Utah State was involved in a contest with this low of a total was back on the very first day of March when they held an opponent to just 39 POINTS for the entire game. That particular Utah State game ended up staying UNDER the total by a “double digit” margin and I am looking for more of the same late this afternoon. As for the Texas A+M Aggies today marks just the SECOND time all season that they have had one of their totals posted in the 120’s range which reflects just how high scoring the Big 12 Conference is. Texas A+M has been playing without one of their better shooters since he suffered a season-ending injury way back in December. More recently Texas A+M guard Dash Harris (wrist) did NOT play in the Big 12 postseason tournament and is not 100%. In the past couple of years Utah State is 21-9 UNDER when facing a solid ball handling opponent who on average commits less than 15 turnovers per contest. My database research also indicates that in the past dozen years Texas A+M is a resounding 14-4 UNDER when facing an excellent “three point” shooting opponent who averages at least 41% from long range.