Steve Janus
Creighton -7½
I look for Creighton to have no problem against Drake tonight in their first game of the Missouri Valley Tournament. Creighton had no problem against the Bulldogs in their two regular season matchups, beating Drake by 17 at home and 8 on the road.
Drake figures to have some tired legs after playing last night. They were able to come away with an impressive 65-49 win against Bradley, but Bradley is the worst team in the conference and nothing like what they will see tonight against the Bluejays.
A big factor in this game is how bad Drake has played away from home this season. They are 12-3 at home this season, but just 5-11 on the road. The Bluejays on the other hand are 11-3 in road games. I look for Creighton to jump all over the Bulldogs early and cruise to an easy double-digit win.
Creighton is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5, while Drake is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Rocketman
San Diego vs BYU
Play: BYU -13.5
BYU is 24-7 SU overall this year while San Diego comes in with a 13-17 overall record on the season. San Diego is 8-21 ATS the past 3 years when playing with 1 or less days rest. San Diego is 3-11 ATS last 3 years after allowing 60 points or less. BYU is 41-19 ATS last 60 after an ATS loss. BYU is 108-17 SU and 64-37 ATS since 1997, 31-0 SU last 3 years and 10-0 SU this year when playing against a team with a losing record. BYU is scoring 79 points per game overall this year. BYU is 4-0 SU and ATS overall vs San Diego since 1997. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. BYU needs a blowout win here to draw some attention to see possible NCAA Tournament Big Dance action. We'll recommend a small play on BYU tonight!
Craig Trapp
Miami Heat vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Miami Heat -5
Sometimes you just have to ride the hot team and their is no team playing better than the Heat. Wade and James dominated last night going for 60+ together blowing out a good home team in POR. Utah doesn't have the scoring ability to compete with the great on ball defenders of Miami and think this is another double digit victory.
Vegas Experts
Providence at Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame
The Irish return to South Bend Friday for Senior Night off back to back road losses, and we look for Mike Brey's team to bounce back nicely. We can't overstate enough how much better Notre Dame is at home. They are 15-1 straight up in South Bend this season, holding foes to 59 PPG. They are catching Providence off a SU dog win over UConn. Notre Dame has cashed 13 of their last 17 Big East home games and the "luck" returns to South Bend tonight!
SPORTS WAGERS
OTTAWA -½ +126 over Chicago
The Blackhawks have firepower. That's not their problem. Their problem is weak goaltending and a defense that gives up far too many quality scoring chances. That was evident again in their last game when Chicago had to rally from 3-1 down to beat the Maple Leafs. They took a 4-3 lead and were very fortunate to not allow the tying goal. That win was the Blackhawks’ first in four games. Now they'll take their 12-17-3 road record into Ottawa to face the relentless and talented Senators. The Sens have scored five goals or more in four of their past six. They've picked up points in eight of nine (7-1-1) and not only are they winning, they're doing it decisively. Chicago has played here once since 2007. They play Detroit at the Joe on Sunday afternoon and that's a game that definitely has its attention. In terms of current form, goaltending and desire, this one points in one direction only. Play: Ottawa -½ +126 (Risking 2 units).
New Jersey +120 over WASHINGTON
The Devils are enduring a rare slump right now that has them losing four straight, including an OT loss last night in Boston. We’ve expressed this ad nauseam but the fact remains that their biggest liability is between the pipes in the form of Martin Brodeur. A look at the Devils four game losing streak shows them outshooting Vancouver 31-16 and losing. In a subsequent pair, they allowed 15 and 16 shots on net to the Lightning and Rangers and lost both contests. Last night, they outshot Boston 31-25 and lost 4-3. When you allow an average of 18 shots on net, you're not supposed to lose four games in a row. The Devils have Adam Larsson back and they picked up Marek Zidlicky at the deadline. Despite losing, New Jersey is playing sound defense and tonight they'll turn the goaltending reigns over to Johan Hedberg. That works for us as Brodeur can use a rest and we get the better team taking back a tag. Play: New Jersey +120 (Risking 2 units).
JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
3 UNIT PLAYS
Norther Iowa -2.5 over Illinois State: Starting with an offseason trip to Brazil, in which the NIU Panthers went 5-0 and then taking on the 52nd ranked schedule, this Panthers squad has been tested and are ready for some success in the post season. The Panthers did struggle away from home vs the MVC as they went 2-8 in their conference road games, but then again the Redbirds also had a 2-8 road mark in the MVC. NIU did lose by just 4 at Illinois State, while the Panthers beat them by 15 at home. Illinois State has scored 65.6 ppg in their last 5 games, but just 54.5 ppg in their last 2 games. Their last game in which they scored just 54 points vs Bradley is a bit disturbing as the Braves have one of the worst scoring defenses in the MVC. It won't get much easier for them today as they will be taking on a Panthers team that has allowed just 63.2 ppg in MVC play. Defense has been a problem for the Redbirds this year as they have allowed 68.7 ppg in MVC play, including 75.9 ppg on the road in MVC play. NIU has not been great offensively as they have averaged just 65.3 ppg ovberall, but they have put up 71.5 ppg in their neutral games and overall they shoot the three ball well (39%) and hit their FT's ( 72.7 %). A slight edge on offense does go to the Redbirds, but they do come in slumping a bit at that end of the floor, while I give a pretty big edge to the Panthers at the defensive end. This team has been playing together since the summer and while they may not make it to the MVC finals they have more than enough, especially at the defensive end, to win this one with ease.
Detroit -5 over Youngstown State: Detroit has not been a great ATS team this year as they have gone just 9-19-1 ATS overall and just 1-6 ATS down the stretch, but this team is putting it all together at the right time and I feel they should come up with a solid win here. Detroit comes in having won 12 of their last 15 games and are just playing very well at the moment. The Titans may be 6-9 in all games away from home this year, but they have won 5 of their last 8 when venturing out on the road. Youngstown is heading in the opposite direction as they come in having won just 2 of their last 5 games, which has included a home loss to Detroit, a road loss to a mediocre Austin Peay squad and just a 7 point home win to a bad Wright State team. Detroit dose have a road wins over Butler, Youngstown State and they beat Wright State by 16 points on the road as well in their last 8 games, so this team can play away from home, while the Penguins are 4-10 away from home, with 6 of their last 8 road losses coming by 6 points or more. Detroit is playing better ball right now and should dispatch the Penguins rather easily in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
Appalachian State/ Charlotte Over 135: Appy State has allowed 74.3 ppg away from home, while Charlotte has allowed 68.3 ppg away from home this year. Both teams have the ability to hit the high sixties in this one and I expect the game in the 140's. KEY TRENDS--- APPALACHIAN ST is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season AND 22-9 OVER (+12.1 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent since 1997.
David Banks
Clippers / Suns Over
A Pacific Division rivalry closes out ESPNs Friday night double-header when CP3 and the Los Angeles Clippers (20-12, 17-15 ATS) invade the desert to battle Steve Nash and the Phoenix Suns (14-20, 14-20 ATS); tip-off from the US Airways Center is scheduled for 10:30 ET.
Though the Clippers closed out the first half of their regular season campaign with a 103-95 home win and non-cover against the Denver Nuggets, the triumph was only the teams first in its last four tries. After dropping its first game post All Star break against Kevin Love and the Minnesota Timberwolves, Lob City will stroll into Sacramento on Thursday night losers in each of their last four against the closing pointspread. This recent correction in their overall body of work now only has them a half-game ahead of the Lakers atop the Pacific Division standings. For Head coach Vinny Del Negros squad to be taken seriously as a viable contender out West, the team must start showing a penchant for being readily able to win away from the Staples Center. Of the Clippers 20 overall wins, 12 have come as a host, and the team checks in just 12-9 SU against the Top 16 teams in the Sagarin Ratings. That said; LA has been excellent for its backers on no rest to date going 6-2 both SU & ATS!
Its safe to say that the Phoenix Suns are going nowhere for the second year in a row. After winning 54 games and taking the Lakers to Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals back in 2010, the squad put forth a sub .500 overall record a year ago and looks to be well on its way towards doing so once again managing just 14 wins in 34 tries heading into Thursday nights home clash with the Timberwolves. On top of that, Head Coach Alvin Gentrys squad possesses 7-9 SU & 6-10 ATS records as a host and checks in as the 22nd ranked team on the Sagarin ratings. Phoenix has gone just 3-10 SU against the Top 10 teams on that list, and also sits under .500 when dogged by the oddsmakers with an 11-13 overall record. Tonights match-up will mark the eleventh time the Suns will have played on no rest; theyre 5-5 SU & ATS in the previous 10 instances getting outscored 98.0-97.0 in those contests.
These rivals have yet to square off against one another this season; theyre scheduled to do so three times in the month of March before closing the regular season series out in late April - Phoenix won three of these teams four overall clashes a year ago. The favorite has covered five of these teams L/7 meetings, but LA checks in just 3-7 ATS the L/10 times it opposed a divisional opponent. The Suns are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS the L/5 times it hosted the Clippers, but theyre just 2-8 ATS the L/10 times they opposed a +.500 adversary. The over is 9-3 in these divisional foes L/12 overall confrontations, and has cashed five of the L/6 times these teams went at it in the desert.
WUNDERDOG
Memphis at Toronto
Pick: Toronto +3.5
The Memphis Grizzlies have gotten used to playing with key injured players, and have maintained a winning record in spite of it all. While the home crowd has provided the adrenaline needed for overcoming the loss of Randolph, the road has not been easy where they have struggled to a 6-10 mark, losing six of their last eight. Toronto despite their last four home games vs. San Antonio and New York who have been hot, and Boston and the Lakers, they have gone 3-0-1 ATS and have been a tough out here. Overall, in their last six games in the role of a dog, they have not lost any of them against the number. Also, the home team has taken six of the last seven in this series ATS, so the play here is on Toronto.
Andrew Lange
Morehead State vs. Tennessee State
Play: Tennessee State -3.5
I don't typically like to lay points with these college basketball conference tournaments but I see some value supporting Tennessee State as a small favorite over Morehead State. Morehead somewhat lucked out with its conference schedule this year playing only one game apiece against the top two teams in the league, Murray State and Tennessee State. In five games against teams that finished with above .500 league record, Morehead went 1-4 with the lone win coming over Tennessee Tech who was playing the second leg of the very difficult EKU/Morehead road trip. Just based on the eye test, Morehead has the look of a mediocre OVC squad but because of the scheduled stumbled into the third seed. Tennessee State meanwhile played Murray and Tennessee Tech twice as well as SEMO. The Tigers have a lot of talent and should have decent fan support with the game being played in Nashville.
Jack Jones
New Jersey Nets +6
The New Jersey Nets are one of the more underrated teams in the league right now. They have played one of the toughest schedules in the NBA, which is a big reason for their poor record. Plus, the Nets have been battling injuries all season, but they are finally starting to get healthy.
New Jersey has a respectable 8-12 road record, going 12-7-1 ATS in the process. They are coming off a road win over the defending champion Dallas Mavericks, proving that they can play with anybody. The Nets just recently got back C Brook Lopez from injury, who is one of the more underrated players in the game. Lopez scored 38 points in their win over the Mavericks.
Boston is simply 'over the hill'. This team is in the midst of a bunch of trade rumors surrounding Rajon Rondo. That is going to be a huge distraction until the trade deadline. I can see why they want to trade Rondo considering this team is in shambles right now at 17-17. They clearly aren't a title contender any longer.
The Nets are 10-1 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=43% over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 9-22 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons. New Jersey is 11-3 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent this season. The Celtics are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games overall, and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Bet New Jersey Friday.
Dave Price
New Orleans Hornets +7
The Mavs have had problems in New Orleans where they are just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Also, the home team is 16-5-2 ATS in the last 23 meetings and the underdog is 5-2-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Hornets are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog, and I won't hesitate to ride this trend tonight. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
Sacramento Kings +10.5
The Kings are quietly playing some very good basketball and are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a result. The Kings won the season's first meeting by 9 points at home, but I don't expect the Lakers to be out for blood. They'll be much more concerned with being fresh for Sunday's showdown with the Miami Heat. The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 in this series in Los Angeles, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Take the Kings.
Teddy Covers
Denver @ Houston
Pick: Houston -3.5
The Rockets have come out of the All Star break with two flat performances, primed to take out some frustrations tonight against the banged up Nuggets. First, Houston looked lethargic for extend stretches against Toronto, escaping with a three point win and prompting this quote from head coach Kevin McHale: “We’re going to have to be much, much better than that starting really soon, like tomorrow night.” But the Rockets played even worse at Utah the following night, blown out by 21 in a non-competitive defeat.
These quotes tell the story of a team unhappy with their effort in recent games, primed to step up here. Point guard Kyle Lowry, following Wednesday’s defeat: “We definitely felt like we got outworked tonight. Those guys played with the intensity.” Forward Luis Scola: “There is no reason in the world why we should stop playing. We just got to keep playing hard. And if we lose, we lose. I don't care about losing; I care about not playing hard all the way to the end."
While Houston is primed for a step-up effort, Denver continues to suffer from a brutal barrage of injuries, expected to be without frontcourt starters Nene and Danilo Gallinari again this evening. The Nuggets are the worst defensive team in the NBA on the road, allowing more than 103 points per game in hostile environments. Those numbers have been even worse in recent weeks, allowing 108 per game while going 0-4 SU in their last four on the highway. Houston beat this team by nine in Denver last month; poised for a similar result tonight against their defensively weak foe. Take the Rockets.
Larry Ness
Houston Rockets -3
The Rockets go for their fifth straight home win when they face the Nuggets on Friday night. Houston is an impressive 15-4 SU at home while the Nuggets have lost four straight road games, giving up an average of 108.0 PPG over that span to raise their average to 103.6, the highest average on the road of any NBA team. Denver defeated Portland 104-95 on Wednesday, something which isn't exactly news, as the Nuggets have now won 22 their last 24 meetings with the Blazers in Denver. It marked the first time in SEVEN games in which Denver had held an opponent to fewer than 100 points. Martin (17.5) still leads the Rockets in scoring, although he had a tough February. That being said, Houston has an outstanding backcourt with fellow starter Lowry (15.8-5.2-7.5) plus reserves Lee (9.4) and Dragic (7.3-3.4 APG). Up front, Scola (15.2-6.2) has posted three straight double-doubles and starts with rookie Parsons (7.5-4.7) plus center Dalembert (7.2-7.4). Depth is provided by Budinger (8.1-3.4) and Patterson (7.3-4.2). The Nuggets are still without leading scorer Gallinari (17.0-5.2) and center Nene (13.4-7.8) but they did get Ty Lawson (15.5-3.4-6.2) back Wednesday, after he had missed two games with a sprained left ankle. More good news comes in the that Fernandez (9.3) is expected back tonight. Denver has excellent depth with Harrington (14.3-6.2), Faried (7.6-6.3), Mozgov (5.9-4.6), Koufus (5.3-5.3) and Andersen (5.2-45.) up front. In the backcourt it's Afflalo (12.7), Miller (10.3-3.6-6.8) and Brewer (10.0), now be joined by Fernandez. However, the Nuggets just haven't played well away from home or for that matter anywhere, since being 14-5 back on Jan 27. Wednesday's win was just Denver's FIFTH in its last 17 games. I'm sticking with the Rockets, who had little trouble with the Nuggets in 99-90 winning at Denver back on Feb 6. Déjà vu.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Denver/ Houston Under 204: Theses teams have been in some high scoring games in years past, but in their only meeting this year the teams combined for just 189 points, and on Denver's home floor where you would expect a high scoring game. Houston was involved in higher scoring games earlier in the year, but lately that has not been the case as their last 5 games have averaged just 183.2 ppg. At home the Rockets have been playing some solid defense as they have allowed just 92.3 ppg on 43.1% shooting on the home floor, plus teams have been able to hit a mere 27.4% from long range on their home floor. Denver does come in averaging 103.8 ppg in their last 5 games, but 2 of those games were in OT and if ya just count regulation then they have averaged 100.4 ppg in those last 5 games. It's still over 100, but Houston's defense should be able to hold them to 95 or less in this one. No Denver doesn't play much defense as they have allowed 103.6 ppg on the road, while Houston has scored 98.7 ppg at home, but just 90.2 ppg in their last 4 games overall. Houston for the longest time was tops in the league in shots per game, but they have since dropped to 4th in the league (83.4 spg) and in their last 3 games they have thrown up just 78.3 spg, which is 26th in the league during that time frame. Despite all the points in Denver games they are still middle of the pack in shots per game at 81.4 spg. 204 points is just to high for this one especially the way the Rockets have played defense at home. I don't see either team topping 100 points in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
LA Clippers -2.5 over PHOENIX: Google News Play. When teams play on back to back nights, you must look at the younger team, especially when taking on an older team an the Suns are just that as Starters Nash and hill are both in their high 30's, while the average age of the Clippers is 26 yrs. That youth has shown up this year when they are playing on Back to back nights as they have a 6-2 ATS mark in such situations, while the Suns have gone just 5-5 when playing with no rest, but two of those wins were vs Washington and Charlotte and the Clippers are much better than both those teams. Phoenix has taken 8 straight at home vs the Clipps, but they didn't have Chris Paul in those games and his 24.6 ppg and 10.9 apgin his last 12 matchups with the Suns could be the difference maker here. The Clippers are the better team and the younger team here and they should break their nlong losing streak in this building by pulling away in the 4th quarter.
Golden State/ Philadelphia Over 189.5: A rather high OU line for a Philly home game this year, as their home games have averaged just 177.1 ppg, but the Warriors are in town, with their bad defense and uptempo in an ESPN game, so I expect a lot more points to be scored. Golden State is starting to look like the team of years past as they are pushing the ball with better than average offense and terrible defense.The warriors come in averaging 96.7 ppg on the road and 95. 2 ppg in their last 5 games. Granted putting up numbers like that won't be easy tonight vs a Sixers team that allows just 84 ppg at home, but the Warriors uptempo style should create many scoring chances for them here. On the other side the Sixers have struggled at the offensive end, but they do have some scorers on their team and will be taking on a GS team that has allowed 101.6 ppg on the road, including 103 ppg in their last 8 away from home. The tempo, the ESPN cameras and bad defense from the Warriors should be more than enough to get this game in the mid 190's.
2 UNIT PLAY
Boston/ New Jersey Over 185.5: I know I said to take the Under in any Boston home game, but I will go against that here. Defensively the Celts have been solid, especially at home where they have allowed just 84.1 ppg on the year, but in their last 3 at home they have allowed 95 ppg, while in their last 5 overall they have allowed 96.6 ppg. The defense has gone down some for Boston, but their offense has picked up as they have averaged 97 ppg in their last 3 games and should be able to pick apart a NJ team that allows 98 ppg on the road. The Net's have not been a great offense this year, but they do average 93.5 ppg on the road and have averaged 93.2 ppg in their last 5 overall and I expect them to hit 92 or 93 in this one, while Boston should get the rest.
1 UNIT PLAY
Memphis -3.5 over TORONTO: Play on road favorites off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This play is 44-17 the last 5 seasons.