Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
BYU -13.5 over San Diego: (Added) The Toreros are off an impressive win vs Pepperdine, but now they take on a Cougars team that has crushed them in the two meetings this year. BYU has had a great year in the WCC as they have gone 12-4 overall and they have outscored their opponents by 16.6 ppg in their 12 WCC wins, which includes a 19 point and a 36 point win over these Toreros. Lets take that one step further. BYU has gone 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS vs the bottom 4 in the league and they have outscored those opponents by 20.5 ppg. The Toreros have gone 0-6 SU vs the top 3 teams in the league and while they are 4-2 ATS in those games, both ATS losses were vs BYU and they have been out scored by 16.2 ppg in those games. San Diego did play last night and they might stay in it for a little bit, but then the pace of BYU should really take over and tire this team out. BYU has owned this team this year and will take no chance in letting them hang around as they put the petal to the metal and turn a 15 point (or so) halftime lead into a 25 point+ win by the time its over.
4 UNIT PLAY
Creighton/ Drake Over 138.5: (Added) This game is on a neutral court floor, but still Creighton is the better team and they should have this game at their pace and that means run and gun. Creighton wants to push the pace and that has helped them score 79.7 ppg overall and 74.4 ppg when they have taken to the road this year. Drake has not been a bad defensive team this year overall, but when they have gone out on the road they have been hit for 72 ppg, while they have allowed 77 and 76 points to Creighton in the two meetings these teams have had this year. For much of the year the Blue Jays were a very good defensive squad, but they have struggled at that end of the floor as they have allowed 74.1 ppg in their last 8 games and that goes along with the 69.4 ppg when they are on the road. Drake isn't a great offensive team But they do score 66.6 ppg overall and they should be able to hit that mark. 66 should be a good number for Drak as I expect no less than 74 points form this high octane Creighton offense. 145+ points in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Norther Iowa -2.5 over Illinois State: Starting with an offseason trip to Brazil, in which the NIU Panthers went 5-0 and then taking on the 52nd ranked schedule, this Panthers squad has been tested and are ready for some success in the post season. The Panthers did struggle away from home vs the MVC as they went 2-8 in their conference road games, but then again the Redbirds also had a 2-8 road mark in the MVC. NIU did lose by just 4 at Illinois State, while the Panthers beat them by 15 at home. Illinois State has scored 65.6 ppg in their last 5 games, but just 54.5 ppg in their last 2 games. Their last game in which they scored just 54 points vs Bradley is a bit disturbing as the Braves have one of the worst scoring defenses in the MVC. It won't get much easier for them today as they will be taking on a Panthers team that has allowed just 63.2 ppg in MVC play. Defense has been a problem for the Redbirds this year as they have allowed 68.7 ppg in MVC play, including 75.9 ppg on the road in MVC play. NIU has not been great offensively as they have averaged just 65.3 ppg ovberall, but they have put up 71.5 ppg in their neutral games and overall they shoot the three ball well (39%) and hit their FT's ( 72.7 %). A slight edge on offense does go to the Redbirds, but they do come in slumping a bit at that end of the floor, while I give a pretty big edge to the Panthers at the defensive end. This team has been playing together since the summer and while they may not make it to the MVC finals they have more than enough, especially at the defensive end, to win this one with ease.
Detroit -5 over Youngstown State: Detroit has not been a great ATS team this year as they have gone just 9-19-1 ATS overall and just 1-6 ATS down the stretch, but this team is putting it all together at the right time and I feel they should come up with a solid win here. Detroit comes in having won 12 of their last 15 games and are just playing very well at the moment. The Titans may be 6-9 in all games away from home this year, but they have won 5 of their last 8 when venturing out on the road. Youngstown is heading in the opposite direction as they come in having won just 2 of their last 5 games, which has included a home loss to Detroit, a road loss to a mediocre Austin Peay squad and just a 7 point home win to a bad Wright State team. Detroit dose have a road wins over Butler, Youngstown State and they beat Wright State by 16 points on the road as well in their last 8 games, so this team can play away from home, while the Penguins are 4-10 away from home, with 6 of their last 8 road losses coming by 6 points or more. Detroit is playing better ball right now and should dispatch the Penguins rather easily in this one.
Missouri State/ Evansville Under 129 (Added): Im gonna cheat a bit on this write up as I just copy an pasted my response that I gave Pool. Evansville had back to back OT games so some of their recent numbers may be skewed a bit, but if we go back to their 5 games before the two OT games then just 120.5 ppg have been scored in their games. Evansville has been weak on defense most of the year, but in their last 5 non OT games they did allow just 59 ppg. MO State has had problems of scoring of late as they have averaged just 58 ppg in their last 7 games, and those game have averaged just 120.5 ppg. Mo State has been weak on defense of late, but Evansville has averaged just 60.4 ppg in their last 5 non-OT games. This is actually a good play and I don't expect either team to hit the 65 point mark. Both games though hit OT this year and as long as that doesn't happen again we should be safe.
Georgia State/ Hofstra Over 126: (Added) These teams combined for just 102 points in the first meeting, but that was when Hofstra was not playing good offense, but boy have they played well of late. Hofstra has averaged 65.8 ppg overall this year, but in their last 3 games they have opened it up with an average of 81.7 ppg over that stretch. at the other end of the Floor Hofstra has allowed 66.6 ppg overall, but in their last 5 games they have allowed 71.4 ppg, while away from home this year they have allowed 71.7 ppg. Overall this year Georgia State has averaged 67.4 ppg, but in the last 5 games they have averaged 70 ppg and should be able to come up with a strong showing vs Hofstra tonight. GSU has allowed under 60 ppg overall for the year, but in their last 5 games (regulation only) they have allowed 64.2 ppg, so I expect this improved Hoftsra team to put up some points on them tonight.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Appalachian State/ Charlotte Over 135: Appy State has allowed 74.3 ppg away from home, while Charlotte has allowed 68.3 ppg away from home this year. Both teams have the ability to hit the high sixties in this one and I expect the game in the 140's. KEY TRENDS--- APPALACHIAN ST is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season AND 22-9 OVER (+12.1 Units) revenging a same season loss vs opponent since 1997. Yes
Notre Dame/ Providence Over 130.5: NOTRE DAME is 41-19 OVER (+20.1 Units) in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games since 1997. Yes the Irish slow the game down, but they need to get their offense going a bit and that may mean they have to open it up a bit in this one. Providence will run some and that will also allow plenty of points in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
Furman -2 over Samford: (Added) FURMAN is 12-3 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) over the last 2, while SAMFORD is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
New Jersey Nets +6
Boston has been overvalued by odds makers all season. It has lost 13 of its last 16 ATS, including 7 in a row. The Celtics are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.
The Nets have been undervalued of late and have covered the number in 4 of their last 6 as a result. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Boston won the season's first meeting by 19 points but New Jersey is 11-3 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss this season. It has only lost by an average of 1.2 points in this situation. We'll bet the Nets.