Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday March, 23

Hollywood Sports

Indiana at Kentucky
Prediction: Under

Indiana (27-8) reached the Sweet 16 after their 63-61 win over VCU as a 5.5-point favorite last week. The Total was 141 for that game which means the Hoosiers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when played on a neutral court. Indiana has also played 4 straight games Under the Total following a point spread loss. Additionally, the Hoosiers have seen the Under go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Now they face a Kentucky they upset earlier in the season by a 73-72 score. The Total was 147.5 for that game -- and expect this game to finish Under the Total as well. The Wildcats come off an 87-71 win versus Iowa State as a 12-point favorite. Kentucky has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Wildcats have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, in the Kentucky's last 12 games played on a neutral in the John Calipari regime when his team was favored, the Wildcats have seen the Under go 8-3-1. These team trends should continue in this between two teams that are already familiar with each other. This is my fourth favorite play on the Friday college basketball card. Take the Under in this one.

Marc Lawrence

Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves will look to bounce back up off the carpet and to avenge season opening 104-100 loss to the Thunder when they invade Oklahoma City Friday night. Minnesota enters off a 16-point loss at San Antonio knowing they are 16-8 ATS as a visitor in this series, including 10-3 ATS when off a loss and 9-2 ATS when the Thunder is off a win. More importantly, OKC arrives off a revenge win over the Clippers with a huge look ahead to a home game with the Heat this Sunday. With the Thunder 11018 SU and ATS in games before hooking up with the Heat, including 2-10 ATS when playing off a win, the dog becomes the play here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.

Rob Vinciletti

Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Denver Nuggets +2.5

Denver has home loss revenge here a role in which they have won and covered 4 straight. They fit a solid dog system that plays on road dogs with 1 day of rest at +4 or less off a home favored win at -5 or more while scoring 110 or more and shooting 50% or higher, vs an opponent that was a road dog of 4 or less last out. Denver is 15-5 ats on the road and 6-2 on Friday. Look for Denver to serve up revenge on an un rested Utah team that we had last night and provided a solid dog win in Sacramento, Take Denver.

Ben Burns

Carolina Hurricanes @ Columbus Blue Jackets
PICK: Columbus Blue Jackets

I like how this one sets up for the home underdog. While they won't be going to the playoffs, the Hurricanes have actually won four games in a row. However, three of those came against teams which were currently fighting for the the playoffs and/or fighting to improve their playoff positioning. "Getting up" for those meaningful games is generally fairly easy, particularly when the last of those came against division rivals.

Getting up for a game against lowly Columbus, a non-playoff team from the opposite conference, figures to be a little more difficult, potentially more so with a showdown with the Wings at Joe Louis looming on deck tomorrow.

Note that Carolina is only 14-22 (-7.6) against teams with a losing record. Worse, even with Wednesday's win vs. Florida, the Canes remain a terrible 4-17 (-13.4) when off a divisional game.

Playing at home (and with no game on deck tomorrow) the Blue Jackets should have an easier time getting motivated.

While they were outclassed by Chicago last time out, the Jackets have quietly gone a profitable 7-5 (+4.4) their last dozen games against teams with a losing record. They're now 25-18 (+10.5) the past couple of years, when facing a losing team during the second half of the season.

It should also be noted that the Jackets are a perfect 4-0 the last four in this series, winning by a combined score of 15-6. Looking for an underdog with a solid shot at an upset? Consider Columbus.

Dave Cokin

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs
Pick: San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are going to want this as they've lost the last two against Dallas. San Antonio is dynamite when rested, standing 24-5 on the year, as opposed to only 6-5 with no rest. Big effort forthcoming tonight by the hosts, so I'll give the points.

Jim Feist

Indiana vs Kentucky
Pick: Under

Indiana (27-8) loves to run for Tom Crean, tops in the Big 10 in scoring and shooting behind 6-11 freshman Cody Zeller and 6-9 freshman Christian Watford, but this game will be about defense. And that’s fine with the Hoosiers as they finished 4th in the Big 10 in field goal shooting defense allowing 41.9%. We saw that the last game, a 63-61 win over VCU, as VCU shot 40% for the game and had only 19 second half points. The Hoosiers are on a 7-2 run under the total, plus the under is 11-5 in their last 16 vs. the SEC. Kentucky is a dominant defensive team and the under is 18-7-3 in the Wildcats last 28 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. With so much at stake, look for a defensive duel. Play Indiana/Kentucky under the total.

JR O'Donnell

Baylor -6.5

This is a extremely athletic Baylor team that sometimes has not played up to their potential. In their last game, Xavier came from behind to beat Lehigh as center Kenny Frease had a big time game for him vs. Lehigh's inside game. Well Kenny these guys are bigger, and FAR more athletic! Baylor has a major advantage on the glass, and takes better care of the ball, with freshman Perry Jackson who can score also. They won their first two games despite a lackluster performance from their star Perry Jones III. Their shooting guard Heslip can score from the locker room. They have too athletic a front line for the Musketeers.

AccuScore

Baylor -6 vs. Xavier
I don’t particularly like Baylor as a team. They are long and super athletic, and have plenty of depth and talent up and down the roster. But a team constructed as they are should be a dominant club. Perry Jones is emblematic of this considered to be a potential top 3 NBA draft pick, but producing like an average BCS conference starter with the odd productive outburst. Xavier however is a similarly frustrating team ranking 14th in the preseason but going just 15-12 since a December fight with Cincinnati. The road for the Musketeers to this point has been relatively easy getting to play 15-seed Lehigh instead of Duke. askthebookie favors Baylor by 8 points in this game, and with neither team being particularly great in my opinion the Bears are the choice based on overall talent.

North Carolina State +8 vs. Kansas
The Wolfpack couldn’t get it done against Duke or North Carolina in the regular season, but showed it was a quality team beating both SDSU and Georgetown to get to this point. They won’t be intimidated by Kansas given the quality opponents it has faced this season. NC State has been great attacking the glass the first two games, and must do so again to stick with Kansas. The Jayhawks needed a late run to get by Purdue, and NC St. does have enough talent and athleticism to make them pay if they are off again to start the game.

North Carolina -10.5 vs. Ohio
The Tar Heels will have a huge size and talent advantage going against 13th seeded Ohio, but the question of course is in the backcourt. They will more than likely be without consummate point guard Kendall Marshall, and he is what makes the engine go. Through points and assists he is responsible for more than half of Carolina’s points, and gets the ball to scorers where they need it. The Heels don’t really have any other playmakers off the dribble. Either a frontcourt player like Harrison Barnes will have to handle the ball or Stillman White and/or Justin Watts will have to step up big-time against D.J. Cooper. North Carolina is an odd position in that slowing down the game would make sense given its superior size advantage, but that runs counter to their core system of the secondary break. Despite the loss of Marshall, Carolina is still overwhelmingly talented compared to Ohio. The Bobcats are actually very poor (relatively) offensively and hang their hat on defense. Everyone will be against UNC without Marshall. I have a feeling this game goes the other way. There is plenty of potential for this line to get smaller as game-time approaches.

EFF BENTON

Your Friday freebie is the Kentucky Wildcats over the Indiana Hoosiers.

Kentucky has just two losses all season long, and by now you are well aware that Indiana is responsible for one of those losses, as the Hoosiers nailed a three-pointer as time expired for a one-point win in Bloomington back in December.

Revenge time for Kentucky, as this Sweet Sixteen meeting is taking place in "Catlanta", which has become Kentucky's home-away-from-home over years past when the SEC tournament was contested on the Georgia Dome hardwood.

Expect blue to be the color of the night in the crowd tonight, and look for the Wildcats who have been chomping at the bit to draw Indiana to deliver the decisive knockout punch.

The Hoosiers survived a scare versus VCU in the last round, and they have done an incredible job in turning things around this season, but Kentucky is clearly the team to beat now in this big dance, and I see Indiana losing touch with the mighty Wildcats as this game progresses.

No need to spit out a bunch of supporting stats for this one, just know that the Wildcats will be ready to run the score up tonight.

Lay the wood.

3♦ KENTUCKY

SCOTT DELANEY

I want you to play the Under in the Kansas/North Carolina State contest, as I fully expect to see a physical contest between a scrappy Wolfpack team that is playing with new life under first-year coach Mark Gottfried, and the second-seeded Kansas Jayhawks that is balanced at both ends, most importantly, that allows just 61.5 points per game.

Surprisingly, after watching last night's games and seeing what's on tap for tonight, this could very well be the most exciting game of the night. If the Wolfpack plays up to its potential, we could see a game come down to the end. I don't necessarily want to side against a Bill Self-coached Jayhawks team, since the Pack allows a bit more and ranks 197th in the nation with its D... it's simply too hard to endorse either side.

Instead, I think the under is the way to go.

Don't read into North Carolina State's 11 seed in the Midwest Region, since it came into the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the nation, and continues to look like a threat to any top seed.

Mark Gottfried’s squad beat two solid opponents in San Diego State and Georgetown to make it this far. And even though this is a team that predicates itself on athleticism and scoring, we're going to see things a bit differently, as Gottfried has had plenty of time to get his team ready to play defense on a Kansas team that ranks 38th in the nation with 74.3 points per game.

And believe me, Kansas is on alert, and will be playing conservatively and very carefully. Think about this, as the Jayhawks eye their 30th win of the season, they haven't played a team seeded better than No. 9 since losing to second-seeded Michigan State in the Midwest Regional semifinals three seasons back. That includes this year's dance, which saw the Jayhawks score a blowout win over No. 15 seed Detroit and a back-and-forth affair with 10th-seeded Purdue.

Again, I'm not endorsing either team - though it may sound like I'm favoring the Wolfpack - my point is that N.C. State has to dictate a stringent pace if it wants to stay in this game. If it doesn't achieve that, Kansas will run away with this, and it could still stay low, as the Jayhawks could keep Gottfried's boys off the scoreboard.

Look for a tighter-than expected ball game, one that either Kansas will win and cover late in the final minutes with free throws, or that N.C. State challenges for an outright. Bottom line, this game stays low.

3♦ N.C. STATE/KANSAS UNDER

CHRIS JORDAN

Not going to lie, though I'm giving you the North Carolina State Wolfpack plus the points against Kansas, as my complimentary winner on day 2 of the Sweet 16, I wouldn't mind seeing coach Mark Gottfried's bunch win this one outright. Presuming the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels are getting past the Ohio Bobcats, I'd love to see an all-ACC final between the Carolina-rivals.

And beyond the dream of running around aimlessly on the court like the late-Jim Valvano did when he led the Wolfpack to the National Championship almost 30 years ago, I'm sure there's a part of Gottfried that would like to get through North Carolina to make it to the Final Four.

First things first though, and that's by dealing with Kansas.

Quite frankly, that's exactly how the Wolfpack got here - by looking at games as 'first things first' and taking it step by step, without sounding too cliché. Gottfried has not only turned things around with this program, but he's turned it into a legitimate threat, much like the ones we saw in Louisville and Florida last night.

The key has been momentum, something that plays the biggest pivotal role for a team in the dance. Think about it, just one month ago, North Carolina State barely resembled a team that had the kind of the résumé the Selection Committee would even consider, as it has lost four straight games. One would have thought the Pack was headed to the NIT.

Then the light came on, and N.C. State scored regular-season wins over Miami and Virginia Tech, and ACC tournament victories over Boston College and Virginia. In the semifinals, Gottfried's troops almost scored an upset of North Carolina. That's when it was evident N.C. State was deserving of a bid.

And even though Gottfried has to be well aware his biggest obstacle since that semifinal loss is a team that has won more games the past 10 years than any other program in the country, he has to have plenty of confidence with how well his players have responded. Especially plus the points.

NC State is in on a 6-1 SU run, and a 7-0-1 ATS streak. They come in on additional ATS streaks of 5-0 versus non-conference teams and when catching points, 5-2 in the dance an a perfect 7-0 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the No. 2-seeded Jayhawks are in on ATS runs of 2-5 ATS after a straight-up win and 1-4 against winning teams.

2♦ N.C. STATE

John Ryan

Phoenix Suns vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Phoenix Suns +4

5* graded play on Phoenix as they take on Indiana in NBA action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Phoenix will lose this game by fewer than four points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 37-12 ATS for 76% winners since 1996. Play against home favorites that are extremely tired teams playing nine or more games in 14 days and is a marginal winning team (posting a win percentage of between 51% to 60% of their games and now facing a losing team. The sim projects that Indiana will struggle against the Phoenix defense and general fatigue and score between 93 and 98 points in this game. Indiana is just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games when they score 93 to 98 points in a game over the last three seasons. Moreover, Indiana is just 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Take the Phoenix Suns.

SPORTS WAGERS

Xavier +6 over Baylor Pinnacle

Xavier is here only because Lehigh upset the Blue Devils. At least that’s what most people are claiming but we aren’t buying into that theory so quickly. The Musketeers appeared to be sloppy on many nights this season. They did just enough to make this NCAA tourney but have displayed little if any of the typical Xavier swagger since that infamous December brawl vs. Cincinnati. But since the start of the Dance, it appears the swagger is back. What folks forget or ignore is that Chris Mack and company ripped through their non-conference schedule to the tune of a #8 ranking and a 9-0 start, including wins over Purdue, Vanderbilt and Cincinnati. Xavier boasts one of the best backcourts in the country, paced by former A-10 player of the year Tu Holloway. A suffocating man-to-man defense holds most opponents to less than 68 points per game. The Musketeers’ outstanding pedigree in this event sure doesn’t hurt either. Baylor is an incredibly athletic and dangerous team. Few teams possess the kind of individual talent, depth and length up front that Baylor does. However, every time one thinks the Bears are ready to take it to the next level, they disappoint. Perhaps it was the 0-4 record against Kansas and Missouri that made it feel like the Bears came up short. The Bears suffer through too many defensive lapses, they should be a better rebounding team and they commit unnecessary turnovers. These are all things that contribute to an upset and while wins over SDSU and Colorado to get here were efficient, they were just a little too easy for Baylor. This is simply too many points to be spotting a quality program that could just as easily win it outright. Play: Xavier +6 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

Indiana +9½ over Kentucky Pinnacle

The Wildcats are obviously of championship calibre. They have size, speed, quickness, athleticism and shooting ability. Above all, they defend at a high level. All of this is no secret to anyone but there is always a price to pay for wagering on a #1 seed and this contest is no exception. We saw it yesterday when both #1 seeds failed to cover, as the Orange won by a point and MSU lost outright. The Hoosiers are a dangerous #4 seed. They are here for the first time in four years and many thought that just getting to this event was going to be good enough for them. They were targeted to get upset in both rounds but they got over that hump with a pair of solid wins over New Mexico State and VCU. They are no longer “just happy to be here”. Indiana's scoring balance is its secret strength. Cody Zeller gets most of the hype but the Hoosiers have three other double-figure scorers in Christian Watford, Victor Oladipo and Jordan Hulls. Coach Tom Crean is a Tom Izzo disciple so his half-court defense requires great on-the-ball pressure, an unwavering commitment to running opposing shooters off the 3-point line and a five-man commitment to defensive rebounding. The Hoosiers' scoring balance, mental toughness and top-notch coach will make them a tough out in this bracket. Kentucky could get a serious scare here after two easy wins. Play: Indiana +9½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Buffalo +145 over N.Y. RANGERS

The Sabres are currently ninth in the East, one point behind Washington for the final playoff spot. Stellar goaltending by Ryan Miller has helped the Sabres climb back into playoff contention. He is 11-1-3 with a 1.89 goals-against average in his last 15 starts. Buffalo has picked up points in six straight and they offer up too much value here to pass up on. The Rangers are headed to the playoffs. They’ll finish either as the #1 or #2 seed in the East. The Sabres’ situation is much more urgent than the Rangers’ and they’ve responded well so far. New York has defeated Buffalo three times this season and they’ll go for the sweep here. However, it’s very difficult to beat the same team four times in a season and a close look reveals that Miller was in net for each of the last two losses to the Rangers despite limiting New York to three goals on 57 shots. His career numbers remain excellent at Madison Square Garden, where he’s 6-2-2 with a 2.35 goals-against average in 10 starts. Play: Buffalo +145 (Risking 2 units).

NEW JERSEY -½ -108 over Toronto

The Maple Leafs are a mentally drained hockey team. They’ve had to endure a serious onslaught from the Toronto media and fans after losing 17 of their past 21 games. They’ve been outscored 13-2 over their last two games while mustering up a measly 13 and 14 shots respectively in those two contests. Toronto’s four wins during this ugly time have come against Edmonton, Montreal, Tampa Bay and Ottawa. There is simply nothing to motivate them anymore and an unmotivated, broken down team is one that is easy to pull the trigger against. The Devils are comfortably in sixth spot in the East. They’re too far behind to finish in fifth and too far ahead to wind up in seventh. What that means is the Devils are heading for a matchup with the #3 seed in the playoffs and that’s good news for them because the #3 seed will be the winner of the Southeast division, currently appearing to be Florida. Things really couldn’t have worked out better for them. They’ve been gaining steam for weeks now and the last thing they want is any sort of setback, especially against a hapless squad like these Leafs. In Toronto’s only visit to Newark this season, back in November, the Buds managed to beat the Devils 5-3. Much has changed since then. The Devils are a contender, the Leafs are anything but and the short price is just too attractive to pass up on. Play: New Jersey -½ -108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).