Free NBA Release for 3/23: Detroit Pistons +9 (-110, TopBet) over the Miami Heat. Nine points is just too many to be laying on the road with the Miami Heat. Miami got a little banged up in their last game against the Suns. Although Lebron James and Joel Anthony are probable tonight against the Pistons, Anthony suffered a mild ankle sprain and James banged up his head and elbow banging hard into Grant Hill. Although they have a losing record, Detroit has really improved their game over the past two months. In fact the Pistons enter tonights contest a very solid 17-6 at the window in their last 23 games. We're betting that they would love to pull off the big upset over the Heat in front of the Friday Night home crowd. The Heat have won five straight in this series and could very well be unmotivated and looking ahead to a big showdown with the Thunder on Sunday. Detroit plays their best basketball at home where they are 15-8 ATS and 12-11 SU. They're also 12-8 ATS vs winning teams this year, including one home cover against the Heat back in January. Miami has grabbed the money only once in their four games this year where they were coming off of two full days of rest. They're also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games laying points. The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with Miami. We'll grab the points with the home dog, Detroit +9. *Our free plays are now 187-103-1 (65%) all-time. Sign up today at iseewinners.com to get all of our free releases via email. Thank you, and best of luck at the window tonight.
Bryan Power
Dallas @ San Antonio
PICK: Under 201.5
If any NBA matchup on the Friday card is "due" to go Under, than it would be this divisional battle between the Mavs & Spurs. I say that because both teams enter tonight riding LONG consecutive game streaks of going Over the total. In fact, BOTH teams have gone Over in each of their last seven games! That includes a game against one another, played last Friday in Dallas w/ the defending champion Mavericks emerging victorious 106-99 as three-point favorites. Tonight in San Antonio should be a far different story as six of the previous eight meetings between these division rivals here in the Alamo have seen the Under cash. Dallas is the second lowest scoring team in the Western Conference at 95 PPG while also ranking #1 defensively at 93 PPG. They come off a bad home loss to the Lakers Wednesday night, but that will work to our advantage here considering the club's 15-3 Under mark on the road when coming off a double digit loss as a home favorite.
Jack Jones
Kentucky -9.5
The Kentucky Wildcats are out for revenge tonight against the Indiana Hoosiers in the NCAA Tournament. Indiana played a great game and beat the Wildcats 73-72 at home back on December 10th. They won't have the luxury of playing in front of their home fans this time around.
Kentucky will have the home-court advantage in Atlanta, Georgia, and I expect them to roll. The Wildcats have been the best team in the country all season. They are 34-2 on the year and outscoring opponents by 17.6 points/game.
The Wildcats are 36-19 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1997. Kentucky is 19-6 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite since 1997. The Hoosiers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. SEC foes, while the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Kentucky Friday.
Jimmy Boyd
Denver Nuggets +1.5
The Nuggets have struggled while laying points of late, but I won't hesitate to grab them in the road underdog role.
The Nuggets are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 road games, 26-8 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog, 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series.
The Jazz enter off a win and cover at Sacramento last night but are just 15-32 ATS in their last 47 games following an ATS win. They are also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Having had a day of rest, Denver will be the fresher side. It will also be lacking no motivation as it looks for revenge for a home loss to the Jazz in the most recent meeting. We'll bet Denver.
Larry Ness
LA Lakers -9
One can't argue that it wasn't a tough blow for the Lakers' locker room last Thursday when veteran Derek Fisher was traded to Houston. However, by year's end, the acquisition of Ramon Sessions (from Cleveland), may be the move that allows the Lakers to get back to the NBA Finals. The Lakers have been a three-man team all season with the PG spot being the team's glaring weak spot. Fisher could no longer guard anyone and he was averaging 5.9 PPG on 38.3 shooting (32.4% on threes). Blake averages 5.1 PPG on 36.1% (31.8% on threes) and has started the four games since the Fisher trade. He's scored a grand total of FIVE points, connecting on 2-of-12 shots (1-of-6 on threes). Sessions is coming off the bench, averaging 12.0 PPG while shooting 56.7% (42.9% on threes). He's scored 31 points on 13-of-17 shooting with 13 assists in LA's two-game road trip to Houston and Dallas. You do the math! The Blazers have sent Wallace (13.3) and Camby (best inside defender and top rebounder at 8.9) packing. The team's starting-five is solid at forward (Aldridge & Batum) and guard (Matthews & Felton) but weak at center (Przybilla). Crawford (14.1) scores off the bench but he's about it for the Blazers' reserves, although Portland is hoping JJ Hickson (4.7-5.1 with Cleveland) can help LaMarcus Aldridge in its frontcourt. However, the Blazers have dropped NINE of their last 13 to fall out of the playoff race, Yes, Portland won at home last night over Memphis (97-93) but the Blazers last won back-to-back games on Jan 23 and 24. Portland is just 7-1 SU (8-16 ATS) on the road TY while the Lakers are 19-3 SU (13-9 ATS) at home. This begins a stretch in which LA will play SIX of its next seven games at Staples Center, giving them great chance to open up a significant lead over the team's co-tenants (Clippers), in the Pacific Division. Lay the points.
Charlie Scott
Indiana vs. Kentucky
Play: Under 144
Indiana starts their games out at a fast pace and then during the game and second half settles down and really slows down the pace. Currently Indiana is on a 7-2 Under run. Make no mistake about it, both teams will give a good effort on the defensive end Tonight and there won't be many easy lay ups. Thursday's USA Today Sports had an article on how scoring is down big in the NCAA Tourney in games played in Domes, Tonight's game is in the Georgia Dome. I already knew this, and wish the article hadn't been published, although it doesn't seem to have effected the Total. When these 2 Teams played earlier this season, Indiana won 73-72 for a total of 145. Since then both Young teams have gotten better at half court defense, but haven't played in a pressure packed game like tonight's in a new large arena.
WUNDERDOG
North Carolina + Kentucky + Kansas ML Parlay
Pick: Parlay -145
While upsets occur often in the NCAA tournament in early rounds, once we get to this point, big upsets are rare. The teams that are supposed to win (big favorites) rarely lose after the first round. In the later rounds, certain favorites are very good bets to win straight-up on the moneyline. I have developed a system to identify these gems and over the past eight years, this system has gone 51-3 in predicting these late-round moneyline winners. Playing these teams individually on the moneyline is expensive (you have to risk a lot to win a little). But, if we parlay them together, we can get a decent price. The three qualifiers today are the Tar Heels, Wildcats and Jayhawks. The chances that any of these teams loses today, in my opinion, is very low (under 10%). The chance that all three lose I estimate to be around 30%. The "fair" odds on a bet that has a 70% chance of winning is -235. Yet, we get -145 on a parlay of these three teams to win straight-up (moneyline parlay). That's great value. Put these three teams in a moneyline parlay. If all three win (by any amount), we win this bet.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
NC State/ Kansas Under 143: Defense and more defense will be played in this one. The Wolfpack come in allowing just 62.6 ppg on 41.4% shooting in their last 6 games, while on the road this year they have allowed just 63.4 ppg on 38.5% shooting. Kansas had a great year offensively and they did enter the tourney scoring over 75 ppg and hitting over 48% of their shots, but they have been stymied in their two tourney games, putting up just 64 ppg on 39.2% shooting. On the flipside we have a NC State squad that has been solid offensively all year long and they have averaged 72 ppg in their last 7 games, but were able to put up just 66 in their last game vs a good Georgetown defense and tonight they will be taking on a very good Kansas defense. The Jayhawks have allowed 61.5 ppg on just 38.1 % shooting this year, while away from home they have been even better, allowing just 58.9 ppg on a mere 37.9% shooting. Kansas' last 5 games have averaged just 135.2 ppg, while their neutral games have put up just 133.4 ppg. For NC State their last 5 games have averaged 135 ppg, while their neutral games have put up 140.4 ppg. I really do not expect a full out run and gun game here, but what I do expect is a lot of defense from two teams that have been pretty good at that end of the floor. Mid 130's at best here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
NC State +8.5 over Kansas: Two real Cinderellas are left in the sweet 16 and this NC State squad is one of them. Kansas may be 7-1 SU in their last 8 games, but just 3-4 in those games and they did struggle with Purdue in their last game, plus the first half with Detroit. NC State comes in on a 6-1 SU run, while in those games they have gone 6-0-1 ATS. Their lone loss of the 7 games was by just 2 points to Carolina in the ACC tournament. NC State has really stepped it up on the defensive end of late as they have allowed just 62.7 ppg on 41.4 % shooting in their last 6 games, while on the road this year they have allowed just 63.4 ppg on a mere 38.5% shooting. Kansas came into the tourney averaging over 75 ppg, but in their 1st two games they have put up just 64 ppg on just 39.2% shooting. Kansas has played good defense this year and they have allowed just 58.9 ppg on 37.9% shooting away from home this year, but State has averaged 72 ppg in their last 7 games. Current form shows us that State is playing better ball and while they might not win outright they will still have enough on the defensive end to keep this one close.
Ohio +10.5 over North Carolina: The Heels have had all week to prepare for the loss of Marshall, but I'm not sure it will help them pull a blowout here. This Ohio team is good as they come in 29-7 overall and 10-1 in their last 11 games. Defense has been the name of the game for this Bobcat team as they have allowed just 61.8 ppg on 41.8 % shooting this year and just 58 ppg on just 42% shooting in their 1st 2 tourney games. Carolina likes to get out and run, but the key to their running game is Kendall Marshall and his 9.8 apg so they may struggle in the transition game a bit here, plus the Bobcats really have the ability to get back and stop the break. Carolina has not played all that bad defensively as they have allowed 66.8 ppg on just 39.4% shooting, but in their last 5 games they have allowed 70.4 ppg on 44.3 % shooting, while on the road tis year they have allowed 69.2 ppg. OHIO puts up a solid 68.9 ppg on the road this year, while overall they have averaged 69.8 ppg and they should have success vs this mediocre Carolina defense. Not saying that the Bobcats can win outright, but the loss of Marshall will hurt the Heels running game and that will allow this solid Ohio defense to keep this one close. Carolina by no more than 5 points.
2 UNIT PLAY
Kentucky -9.5 over Indiana: Gonna go the square rout in this one. I just feel the Cats are still smarting from that last second loss to the Hoosiers earlier in the year and they would like some payback in this one. I feel that ISU may be a bit better that the Hoosiers and Kentucky waxed them by 16 and that was with no payback in mind. 8 of Kentucky's last 9 wins have been by at least 9 points, while their two tourney wins have been by DD. Kentucky has put up 81 and 87 points in the tourney thus far and while Indiana has played good defense in the tourney, this is still a team down the stretch has allowed 74 points to a mediocre offensive team in Purdue and 79 points to a weak scoring Wisconsin team in the Big 10 tournament.Indiana can score and Kentucky has has allowed 71 points in 3 of their last 4 games, but they have still allowed just 59.5 ppg on 37% shooting on the year. Still 71 points by Indiana may not be all that bad as I expect at least 82 points from the Cats here. Kentucky by 12+ in this one.
Dave Price
Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5
The Timberwolves are showing value as a double-digit dog considering they are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. They fact they're coming off a double digit loss and OKC is coming off a double digit win also bodes well for us. The Timberwolves are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Thunder, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
Portland Trail Blazers +9
The Lakers are one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA year after year because of the betting attention they receiver. They certainly aren't deserving of this much respect against a team they have only defeated by more than 9 points once in the last five meetings. The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Bet the Blazers.
Jimmy Boyd
Denver Nuggets +1.5
The Nuggets have struggled while laying points of late, but I won't hesitate to grab them in the road underdog role.
The Nuggets are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 road games, 26-8 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog, 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series.
The Jazz enter off a win and cover at Sacramento last night but are just 15-32 ATS in their last 47 games following an ATS win. They are also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Having had a day of rest, Denver will be the fresher side. It will also be lacking no motivation as it looks for revenge for a home loss to the Jazz in the most recent meeting. We'll bet Denver.