Jason Sharpe
Iowa State / Virginia Under 142
No team in CBB knows how to create a slow tempo type game better than Virginia. They come in the slowest-paced team in all of CBB, ranking 351st overall out of 351 teams. The Cavaliers haven't played a single 70+ possession game this entire season, and you'd have to go all the way back to 2012 for the last time that Virginia did so during regulation time. They took a very fast-paced Hampton team and made them play their fewest-possession game of their season in the tourney opener. This is a well-coached team that knows it can't get into a track meet with Iowa State if they want to win this. Look for this game to be played in the mid 130s here.
Indian Cowboy
Washington (-) over Minnesota
Washington is beginning to roll, and we like them to keep it going here Friday. Notice that the Wizards have been on a streak, and they are gelling together at the right point to their credit. This is a Wiz team that understands that their entire coaching staff is on the rocks here, and they need to show improvement and seeding in the Eastern Conference is very tight at the current spot. Washington won by against New York, drilled Chicago by 21 as 5-point favorites at home (which was a 4-unit play for us), beat Detroit by a million (well, 43 points) and have been showing consistency with their guard play and with John Wall having a breakout season. Combine this with Minnesota struggling against teams with a strong interior presence and already having lost to this team by 6 points, look for the Wizards to continue to make their playoff push and make the adjustments for even a bigger blowout here behind a solid home crowd on Friday Night. We have the Wizards winning by double-digits this Friday evening.
Robert Ferringo
Memphis / San Antonio Under 201
I have been swimming upstream betting the Spurs over for the last month or so. But Pop's evil play revealed itself last week in a huge game against Golden State: the Spurs know they can't outscore the Warriors in the West so their entire focus is on being the best defensive team in the NBA. They are completely shutting opponents down and have only allowed over 100 points twice in their last 14 games. They are just 5-13 against the total in their last 18 games, and they should have no problem holding Memphis in the 80's here since the Grizz are still without Mike Conley. The 'under' is 5-2 in the Spurs' last seven home games and should come through again here.
Drew Martin
Iowa State vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia -5
Friday night’s Sweet Sixteen matchup between Iowa State and Virginia is a classic battle of contrasting styles. The Cyclones prefer to go at it with an up-and-down offensive style while the Cavaliers slow you down half court and force you to play at their speed. ISU beat two double-digit seeds in Iona and Arkansas Little-Rock to advance to the Round of 16. Their win over UALR is especially important because the Trojans and Virginia play a similar brand of basketball. Clearly fatigued after a double OT win over Purdue, Little Rock just couldn’t handle ISU’s balanced offense as the Cyclones shot well above 50% for the game. They won’t have nearly as many high percentage looks on Friday with Virginia boasting the fourth-best defensive efficiency rating in the country. And while everyone is focused on UVA’s defensive prowess, don’t forget that they posted near identical offensive numbers to that of Iowa State. The Cyclones averaged 1.20 points per possession this season while the Cavs produced 1.19. Meanwhile, ISU just hasn’t shown the ability to defend at a high level. They ranked seventh in the Big XII is points per possession allowed a 1.08. Winning games in March is all about defending and making life uncomfortable for the opposition. Virginia is too set in its way to allow ISU to control tempo. And I’m not sure the Cyclones’ offense, which is predicated on space and movement, will be able to adjust on the fly to what projects to be a half court game. Play the favorite.
Oskeim Sports
Indiana vs North Carolina
Play: Indiana +5.5
The Big Ten Conference is 7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament as underdogs of less than six points and my math model only favors North Carolina by three points. The Hoosiers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games off a win and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with North Carolina. Let's also note that the Big Ten is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in the Sweet 16 versus ACC opponents since 1992, while North Carolina head coach Roy Williams is just 6-11 ATS versus Big Ten foes off a SU and ATS win.
Indiana possesses an explosive offense that is ranked 1st nationally in field goal percentage (.505), 10th in scoring (82.5), 9th in scoring margin (+13.5), 5th in three-point field goal percentage (.416), 9th in total three-pointers made (332) and 24th in total assists. Overall, Indiana's attack is 11.3 points per game better than average (82.5 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 71.2 points per game), which is good enough to exploit a pedestrian Tar Heel defense that is only 3.7 points per game better than average (69.4 points per game to teams that would combine to average 73.1 points per game).
The Hoosiers' prolific long-range shooting should feast on a North Carolina squad that ranks 232nd in three-point field goal defense (.354). Indiana's defense is mediocre at best, but the Hoosiers are limiting opponents to 70.6 points over the last five games (29.9% 3-PT). The Hoosiers forced Kentucky into sixteen turnovers and rank 63rd nationally (351 schools ranked) in total steals and 72nd in steals per game (7.0). I also like the fact that Indiana is 25th in the country with a +6.9 rebound margin.
Finally, this game involves two of the worst college basketball coaches in Division I, but my rankings still put Tom Crean ahead of the grossly overrated and often times incompetent Roy Williams. Grab the generous points with the Hoosiers!
DAVE COKIN
INDIANA VS. NORTH CAROLINA
PLAY: INDIANA +5.5
I have a choice to make here. I can write several paragraphs of extraneous observations that will probably read pretty well as far as making a case for the Hoosiers is concerned.
Or, I can simply cut right to what I feel are the two big keys in this game and leave it at that. Full disclosure? I’m hungry and I want to watch Stephen Colbert. Olivia Munn is the guest and truth be told, I’d much rather spend time gawking at her as opposed to a lengthy dissertation here.
So here are the keys as I see them. Thomas Bryant and turnovers. Bryant is the Indiana freshman big man who was absolutely great against Kentucky. I’m not expecting Bryant to outperform Brice Johnson. But if Bryant can come close to equalling the North Carolina star’s production, I really like Indiana’s chances here. Bottom line, and I’m sure I’ll catch some resistance on this, is that I like the Yogi/Williams Hoosiers combo more than the Tar Heels Paige/Jackson pairing.
As for the turnovers, that’s simple enough. If Indiana takes good care of the basketball and doesn’t hand North Carolina more than say, three extra possessions, I think I’m in good shape. If the Hoosiers end up north of 15 turnovers, I can probably just grab the red ink writing instrument and move on to the next game.
North Carolina has the big expectations here and it’s not going to be the shock of the century if they dispatch the Hoosiers by a margin. But I really like the way the underdog is playing and I believe their confidence level is sky high after the very impressive win over Kentucky. Following the lopsided Thursday results, I’m hoping for more excitement this evening, and Indiana plus the points looks like a good possibility to provide some.
Rob Vinciletti
Iowa State vs. Virginia
Play: Iowa State +5
Iowa St is has won both meetings vs ACC Teams and is 4-0 ats in March while covering their last 5 tournament games. They are 8-1 on Fridays and 3-0 vs teams who allow 65 pr less points per game. Virginia is 0-6 ats with 5 or 6 days rest and #1 seeds have failed to cover 8 of 9 in this round off a win and no cover if they are laying 5 or less points. Iowa St has won 2 of the 3 meetings in the series and we will back them tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Nuggets vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +2½
Edges - Lakers: 10-3 ATS off a loss in this series when Denver is off a win, including 6-1 ATS when Lakers are off a DD loss. Nuggets: 1-4 ATS last five games overall; and 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in games before facing the Clippers. With Los Angeles 13-7-1 ATS with double-digit loss revenge in this series, including 5-1 ATS when playing off a loss of 12 or more points, we recommend a 1* play on the Lakers.
Mike Lundin
Magic vs. Heat
Play:Heat -8½
The Miami Heat fell 112-88 at San Antonio Wednesday but I like their chances of bouncing back with a big win when hosting the Orlando Magic Friday night.
Miami had recorded back-to-back dominant wins against Cleveland and New Orleans prior to the setback and it has plenty of motivation trying to claim third place in the tightly-clustered Eastern Conference. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points and 5-0 ATS in their last five Friday night games.
The miserable Magic have allowed opponents to average 110.5 points on 48.8 percent shooting during a 5-13 stretch and they've lost five straight. Each of the last two defeats, at Boston and Detroit, have come by 11 points or more. They're 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings with the Heat.
Dwayne Wade's 27.2 career scoring average against the Magic is shy of only his 27.3 mark against Golden State. He was held to 16 points on 8-of-13 shooting against San Antonio and I expect a big game from Wade and the rest of the Miami players tonight.
Jim Feist
Nuggets vs. Lakers
Play: Nuggets -1½
Denver has had a nice run in March, winning two of three, part of a 6-4 run the last 10. The Nuggets are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games playing on one day of rest. Emmanuel Mudiay (27 points and 11 rebounds) made a 35-foot rainbow at the buzzer and give the Denver Nuggets a 104-103 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday night. The Nuggets are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver is also 7-1-1 ATS on the road vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400 and they face a terrible LA Lakers squad on a 1-5 spread run. The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. And the Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
Art Aronson
Islanders vs. Lightning
Play: Lightning -150
The Isles are set up for a letdown here as they come in off a 3-1 win over the Sens, which broke a four-game losing streak. The Lightning come in off a commanding 6-2 home victory over the Red Wings and have won two in a row. Important to note for sure that the home team has won four of the last five in this series. New York now faces a Tampa Bay team that’s fighting for a division title and which will be eager to take care of business in its own barn where it is 56-28 in its last 84 games played there. New York on the other hand is just 17-20 on the road, including 0-5 its last five. With an extra days off of rest, we think the LIGHTNING are indeed worthy of a second look in this particular matchup.
Darryl Tucholski
Nuggets vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +2½
The Nuggets enter the contest against the Lakers 1-4 in their last 5 on the road. Julius Randle, and Deangelo Russel have shown that they are going to be the future of the Lakers. Kobe Bryant wants to ride off into the sunset with some wins, he gets one here. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5
Bob Harvey
Nuggets vs. Lakers
Play: Nuggets -2½
A pair of lottery bound teams--The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers collide tonight in downtown LA. The Nuggets have won two of this season's three meetings and the last five in Los Angeles.
The Nuggets (30-42, 38-32 ATS)were on the verge of losing to the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday before rookie Emmanuel Mudiay drained a game-winning buzzer beater for a 104-103 victory.
The Lakers (15-56, 32-39 ATS)dropped a 119-107 decision to the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday for their fifth loss in six games. Retiring Kobe Bryant averaged 18.5 points in the past two games while playing through shoulder pain and is expected to play against the Nuggets. D'Angelo Russell suffered a shin injury that proved to be minor but his game is hurting. Since his stretch of seven 20-point outings in eight games, he’s averaging 10.4 points on 33.3 percent shooting over the last five contests.
The Lakers franchise has lost five of six, including a 119-107 defeat in Phoenix on Wednesday put them one step closer to the worst record in franchise history. They won 19 games in 1957-58 while in Minneapolis and had a .256 winning percentage last season by going 21-61.
Denver is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in Los Angeles and 4-1 vs. the number in the last five meetings overall.
The OVER IS 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings and 5-1 in the Nuggets last six overall. The Lakers are 3-0-1 in their last four against Northwest Division completion.
Ben Burns
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame
Pick: Under
Of Friday's four Sweet 16 games, the Notre Dame/Wisconsin matchup is projected to be the closest. The other three all have a clear favorite (UNC, UVA, Gonzaga) but the Irish/Badgers line suggests a game which could go either way. Interesting matchup, indeed. Lets take a look at the total. The ND/SFA game finished well above the total, as the teams went "shot-for-shot." While that game remains fresh in bettors' memories, lets not forget that Notre Dame limited Michigan to 63 points in the first round, a game which fell below the number. As for the Badgers, they held Xavier to 63 after giving up a mere 43 against Pittsburgh in the opening round. They've seen the "under" go 15-6 when the O/U line was listed in the 130s and 10-4 when they were listed as underdogs. Take a look at the "under" again here.
Will Rogers
Gonzaga vs. Syracuse
Pick: Over
The Gonzaga Bulldogs will be a favorite in their Sweet 16 match-up versus Syracuse. Gonzaga is coming off a pair of impressive double-digits wins over Seton Hall and Utah, and they look poised to keep the ball rolling against a Syracuse team that many feel didn't deserve to be in the tournament in the first place. The Orange are coming off a blowout win over Middle Tennessee in in their last game, but they can expect a much tougher game against a superior Bulldogs team tonight. The total for tonight's game looks a little low, and I expect both teams to get their fair share of points.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Orange came into the tournament as losers of five of six. They did not play particularly well defensively in those games, surrendering an average of 71.5 points in those games. They are going to have a tough time stopping a Gonzaga team that comes in averaging 83 points on 51.8 percent shooting over it's last five games.
2. Three-Point Shooting - Both teams are a threat from beyond the arc, and Syracuse was 8-of-20 (40%) from three-point range in their win over Middle Tennessee. The Bulldogs are hitting 42.6 percent of their three-point attempts over their last five games.
3. X-Factor - The over is 17-7 in the Bulldogs last 24 NCAA Tournament games, and the Orange have gone over in 12 of their last 15 games at neutral sites.