Scott Rickenbach
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame
Pick: Over
The Irish have too many scoring options for the Badgers to completely shut them down. Wisconsin plays stellar defense and is built on frustrating opponents but Notre Dame has too many weapons and will be able to get their fair share of points in this one. Hence, going over the low posted total here should prove to be well worth it. The over is 6-3 this season in Notre Dame games with a posted total in the 130s. Also, the over is 3-1 the last three seasons in Wisconsin neutral court games where the Badgers line ranges from a pick'em to a +3. Wiscy has been on a phenomenal run of unders but the Fighting Irish do present some tough match-up problems for the Badgers defense that will prove to be a difference-maker here. The problem for Notre Dame is that their defense is truly nothing special and that keeps the Badgers in this game all the way. That makes the side "tricky" to call in this match-up but, as for the total, I expect plenty of points here. The over is 5-1 this season in Notre Dame's games against teams who are allowing an average of 64 points per game or less on the season. Translation: the Irish score well even against the most defensive-minded of teams!
Larry Ness
Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks
Pick: Atlanta Hawks
The Milwaukee Bucks went 41-41 last year, coming off a 29-win season the year before. However, this year’s team checks in at 30-42, putting them on pace to win just 34 games this season. The Atlanta Hawks won an Eastern Conference-best 60 games last season but at 42-30 are on pace to win a much more modest 48 games this year. However, after hovering around .500 through the season's first four months, the Hawks are playing their best basketball down the stretch. They've won 11 of 14 since February 26 to move a half-game ahead of Miami and Charlotte in a tight Southeast Division race and pull even with Boston for third in the East, overall. The No. 3 through No. 6 seeds in the Eastern Conference are separated by just a half-game.
Atlanta has limited opponents to 40.3 percent overall and 29.8 percent from three-point range, both league bests, during its 14-game run. The Hawks are allowing 99.1 PPG on the season (to rank 6th) with opponents shooting just 43.4 percent (2nd), including 33.6 percent on threes (5th). Offensively, the Hawks also have rediscovered their touch from the perimeter, having averaged 13.4 three-pointers per game over their last seven. Atlanta’s shooting from beyond the arc last year (ranked second in the NBA in three-point percentage and fifth in made three-pointers), led to what was a franchise-record 60 wins.
Milwaukee has won both previous meetings with Atlanta this season (each game went into OT) but the Bucks have had major problems stepping up in class lately, having won just THREE of their last 12 games when facing teams in playoff contention. In contrast, the Hawks enter 11-3 SU & ATS overall in their last 14 games.
GamePlan
Gonzaga vs. Syracuse
Pick: Under 135
Syracuse likes to slow the tempo and work the shot clock and shoots a lot of three's. Gonzaga is an underrated defensive team as they ranked #23 in defensive efficiency. Look for a low scoring game tonight.
Chase Diamond
Gonzaga vs. Syracuse
Play: Syracuse +159
This game features the 28-7 Gonzaga versus the 21-13 Syracuse. Syracuse barely got into the big dance and I believe it was based on how hard their schedule is the same can not be said for Gonzaga. Syracuse is coached by a legend and this could be his last March Madness. Gonzaga has not seen this kind of zone defense and I expect them to struggle big time. I think the players for Syracuse win this game for him and send him to the Elite 8.
John Ryan
Nuggets vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +2½
SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Lakers will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 8* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-18 ATS over the last 5 seasons good for 72% winners. Play On all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - after allowing 105 points or more against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is just 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after a game with 15 or less assists this season.
Sleepyj
Detroit -130
Detroit was given a gift the last two Bulls games...Bulls went down to the Knicks in both of the back to back games they played...Pistons sat on the sidelines and watched them jump into the 8th seed now...Detroit now hold a full game lead over the Bulls and only sit a half game away from the Pacers...Detroit has a tough stretch coming up and beating these kind of teams is a must...Now while most think the Hornets are red hot and beating teams rather easy, take a look at some of the bottom feeders they beat up on...Hornets haven;t beat many teams that are playoff teams over this big run of wins they have had in the last 3 weeks...Big key for Detroit is the fact that KCP will be DOUBTFUL of the lineup sick....They are saying KCP has a slight chance to play tonight, but it looks dim...This is another game in which the Pistons need to rattle off a win..The play two more games at home and the competition is going to be tough with ATL and OKC right after this game...They also finish up the final 7 games with 4 on the road...A must win game here tonight IMO for Detroit...Reggie Jackson and Drummond should get these guys over the hump tonight..Morris has been lights out the last few games and a big effort out of Harris will be need..I'll grab the home team here laying a short ML price.
Scott Spreitzer
Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings
Pick: Phoenix Suns
The Suns have played better basketball of late, winning three of their last five games, outright, while covering four of their last six. They'll look to exact a little revenge for a 142-119 loss to Sacto on January 2. Phoenix actually led 49-48 at one point in the game, but the Kings made 53 FGs, while shooting over 60% for the game, dishing out 30 assists along the way. Things have changed quite a bit since then. Phoenix is no longer coached by Jeff Hornacek and have shown signs of life of late. The Kings were thinking playoff possibilities in mid-January, but their current 3-13 SU slide, coupled with a 1-8 SU slide from January 25 through February 8, have put an end to that dream. Sacramento is in a tough spot tonight, playing their first home game following four straight on the road, and while Cousins and Rondo are expected to play, both players are less than 100% healthy. The Kings have covered just 8 of their last 28 games, overall (one push), and they have dropped seven straight home games ATS.
Jesse Schule
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame
Both Wisconsin and Notre Dame needed a bit of luck to get to the Sweet 16, as each team rallied from behind in the dying seconds of their last games. The Badgers upset win over Xavier was particularly impressive, so much so that the bookmakers are putting them near level with a Notre Dame team that has a better record, and played a far tougher schedule. This is what we call "recency bias", as it appears the line reflects Wisconsin's recent performances, while ignoring the overall body of work. I think the Irish should be asked to cover at least 3-5 points here. Notre Dame won a dozen games in the ACC, while Wisconsin won 12 games in the BIG10. There's a big difference between beating up on the likes of Illinois, Rutgers, Minnesota, Penn State and Nebraska, or winning games against the likes of #9 ranked Duke at Cameron Indoor, and #2 ranked North Carolina at home. The Badgers are going to need to play a perfect game just to keep it close, and even that might not be enough. Notre Dame scores more points, shoots for a far higher field goal percentage, significantly better three-point shooting, and they've been better on the boards. The one stat that might kill Wisconsin more than anything else, is that the Irish have hit better than 75 percent of their free throws over their last five games, while the Badgers have hit just 66 percent during that span.
Wunderdog
Gonzaga vs. Syracuse
Pick: Syracuse +5
It appeared that neither of these teams had put together enough of a resume to make the NCAA Tournament field, but both of their names were called on selection Sunday, and both have survived with a chance to advance to the Elite 8 as double-digit seeds. Syracuse was given a lot of credit for a rugged ACC schedule, softening the fact they lost 13 games. It wasn't the losses that got the Cuse here it was the wins over Duke, UConn, Notre Dame, and Texas A&M. This is a tough matchup for Gonzaga which has been using its size to win games, which will be negated to an extent against the Syracuse zone, which allows 40% shooting and just 30% from deep. Gonzaga faced just four NCAA Tournament teams on the season and beat just one of them by three points, and just hasn't been the team most have become used to at Gonzaga, still good, but not good enough.
Greg Smith
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame
Play: Wisconsin +1
When comparing these two teams the Badgers really stick out defensively. In fact Wisconsin ranks 18th in the country in comparison to the Irish who rank an horrific 140. I expect Wisconsin to jump out to a lead early and not let go. Take Wisconsin in this tight spread match-up and look for a possible 7 to 8 point win.
Vegas Butcher
Wisconsin +1.5
Both teams are coming off games where their expected win-rate was ~ 10% with a few minutes left in the game. Both pulled out improbable wins. So who do you take here, an elite offensive team (ND - #9 in OffEff) or an elite defensive one (WIS - #11 in DefEff)? Notre Dame is excellent offensively but ranking 172nd in DefEff, they’re the worst defensive team left in the tourney. It’s important to note that Wisconsin knows how to play against teams with offensive prowess, as they’ve gone 2-2 against Indiana and Michigan State, two of the most prolific offenses in college basketball. One of the loses was by 1 point by the way. I think Wisconsin should be able to contain the Irish in this one. Offensively, Wisconsin has strong advantage in TO-rate and ORB-rate, two defensive aspects that Notre Dame struggles in. The game should be close but turnovers and rebounding should favor Wisconsin in this one, and I like their chances of pulling out a close win.
Syracuse +5
Gonzaga is 4-3 this year against teams that primarily play ‘zone defense’. But that could be a bit misleading. All 4 wins came against Loyola Marymount and Santa Clara, team ranked in the bottom-third of college basketball. All 3 losses came against top-75 teams: Texans A&M, UCLA, and SMU (one at home, one away, and one neutral). So against top-75 opponents who apply zone-D, Gonzaga is 0-3. Will they go 0-4 after tonight? I think they very well could. There’s probably no team in college basketball that runs as prolific zone-defense as Syracuse. I think their ability to force TO’s (50th in TO-rate), especially via steals (7th in Steal%), will cause some issues for Gonzaga. In addition, Syracuse ranks 11th in 3PT% allowed. Syracuse is one of a few teams that has the size to potentially neutralize Sabonis and Wiltjer and disrupt Gonzaga’s offensive flow. I expect a very close game here, and think Syracuse is getting too many points in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW JERSEY +160 over Washington
OT included. The Capitals are the class of the East but we have to question what is motivating them as the finish line approaches. The Capitals are in first place by a landslide. They will get home-ice throughout the playoffs and have absolutely nothing to play for right now other than trying to stay healthy and sharp, as the monotonous wait for the post-season continues. The Caps are coming off games against Pittsburgh and Ottawa in which they fired away just 18 and 22 shots on net respectively. That shot output against two teams that generally give up a slew of shots tells us plenty about the Capitals mindset. The Caps defeated the Senators on Tuesday, 4-2 but again, they mustered a mere 22 shots on net while creating just six high quality scoring chances. This is a team that is playing for nothing that will host the Blue Notes at home tomorrow night. It’s the Caps third road game in a row on the road so if they are going to get up for a game, it is far more likely to be against the Blues at the Verizon Center tomorrow than against the Devils at the Rock tonight.
The Devils aren’t going to outshoot many teams. This is an offensively challenged host that is tooth and nails to score any goals. However, what the Devils do well is play sound positional hockey, limit the oppositions chances and compete right until the final whistle. The Devils are also one of the speediest teams in the NHL and they are not so easy to defeat. The Devils have several wins this year against elite competition too. They are 0-3 against the Caps this season but one of those games went into OT, one was a one-goal decision and the other was a two goal decision way back in the second game of the year on October 10. New Jersey has recent wins over Pittsburgh, San Jose, Los Angeles (x2) the Rangers, Philly and Nashville among others. The Devils are generously priced at home here against a rather disinterested guest and it’s a wager we are not going to miss based on the value alone. Add in the motivation levels of these two teams, which absolutely favors the Devils and it seals the deal for us. Big time overlay here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Virginia -6 over Iowa State
This is another contrast in styles that features Iowa State’s offense against the great defense of Virginia. Virginia runs the slowest pace of any team left in the field, while Iowa State plays at the fastest pace. Iowa State ranked fourth in points per game this season, thanks to their fast pace and high offensive efficiency. They also own the best shooting percentage, 50 percent, among teams in the field. While dominant offensively, the Cyclones will have a tough task ahead of them to find holes in the stingy Virginia defense.
The Cyclones can shoot from anywhere. All seven Iowa State players who get significant playing time have an effective field-goal percentage of 54.8 percent but they pretty much have to. Steve Prohm’s crew doesn’t rebound at either end and they don’t force turnovers, either. That’s a bad combination against the Cavaliers. Iowa State has to execute at the very highest level for an entire game otherwise they are ripe to get blown out. Even when the Cyclones are in super sharpshooting mode, they can’t always blast out of the hole bored by losing the possession battle. The Cyclones always give the opposition more possessions than they get. Always, which is not a team we want to get behind in this round.
The Cavaliers' defense benefits from the slower pace, but contrary to popular belief, their offense is quite efficient. Virginia ranks 14th in offensive efficiency, meaning this game will come down to more than Iowa State’s offense versus Virginia’s defense. The X-factor will most likely be Virginia’s ability to pick apart Iowa State’s poor defense, as the Cyclones rank 156th in defensive efficiency and allow 75 points per game. If Virginia scores 75 points or more here, and there is a good chance they will, they should blow by this opponent. Remember, the Cyclones got by Iona and Little Rock in the first two rounds of this event and one could develop some very bad habits when playing those two teams before playing this juggernaut. The #1 seeds won big yesterday and this one seems like the biggest mismatch of the group. Virginia should win big too.
Wisconsin +111 over Notre Dame
This is quite a contrast in style, as the Badgers are all about defense while the Irish are all about offense. When those two contrasting styles clash, the equation is a simple one that says Wisconsin can withstand a poor shooting night but the Irish cannot.
Notre Dame ranks 193rd in defensive efficiency by giving up an adjusted 104.7 points per 100 possessions. A team can get away with bad overall defense if it finds ways to minimize opponents’ possessions but the Irish don’t force turnovers—like, ever—with a 14.8 rate (337th in the nation). Nor do they do a particularly good job cleaning up after their opponents miss a shot, allowing a 30.3 percent offensive rebounding rate. In other words, Notre Dame is much more vulnerable in a one-and-done situation than the Badgers are. Mike Brey's crew is back in the second weekend as one of six ACC squads to make the Sweet 16. The Irish came out on top in one of the most thrilling outcomes of the Round of 32, albeit at the expense of Thomas Walkup and beloved 14 seed Stephen F. Austin. The Irish needed a last second bucket to escape the Lumberjacks and they were in trouble against Michigan too in the round of 64. You would be hard-pressed to find a team that’s had an easier path to this round than Notre Dame.
Though Wisconsin is too big of a brand to carry the "Cinderella" torch for this year's Sweet 16, you'd be hard pressed to find many better "feel good" stories than the one that continued unfolding as Bronson Koenig's buzzer beater sent the Badgers to the second weekend. Head coach Greg Gard has led a phenomenal turnaround, taking over a team that, in December, was a longshot to make the tournament, and leading them to a Sweet 16 in what could have easily been written off as a transition year for Wisconsin basketball. The Badgers are certainly capable of challenging their prospective opponents in Philadelphia with their "grind it out" style and the offense of Koenig and Nigel Hayes. The Badgers exhibited their defensive strength and has coupled that with timely shooting to knock off Pittsburgh and Xavier so far. Wisconsin will look to remain one of the hottest teams in the country since mid-January, winning 13 of their last 16 games. It is the Irish here that are taking a step up in class, not the Badgers and it's also the Badgers that should be favored here.
Big Al
Islanders vs. Lightning
Pick: Over
The Lightning would love to get back to the Stanley Cup Finals this year, and the way they've been playing lately they have a great shot at another deep playoff run. They came off of a tough four game road trip (2-2) and thumped the Red Wings here at Amalie Center 6-2. They need more offensive displays like that one heading into the post-season and they need goaltender Ben Bishop to continue his hot play (2.02 GAA; .928 Sv Pct). The goal scoring usually ramps up a bit when the Bolts are playing inferior competition at home as the over is 8-3-1 in the Lightning's last 12 home games against teams with a losing record. And the Isles have a dangerous offense at times as well, led by superstar C John Tavares (27 goals). But their defense has been lacking lately - especially on the road - as the Islanders have allowed 23 goals in their last seven games away from Brooklyn. The over is 3-0-1 in the Bolts' last four games following a win and 9-3 in their last 12 vs. teams from the Metropolitan.
Teddy Covers
Raptors vs. Rockets
Play: Raptors
It’s not hard to make a case for betting against the Houston Rockets in any pointspread range where they’ll need to win the game in order to cover the number. It’s been a long, disappointing season for the JB Bickerstaff’s squad, fighting for the #8 seed in the West just one year after reaching the Western Conference Finals.
Wednesday Night’s home loss to Utah was the latest frustrating defeat for Houston, as they blew an 18 point second half lead, losing on a last second dunk by Derrick Favors. The loss marked Houston’s third consecutive defeat, and fifth in their last seven games. Their only two wins during this two week span have come against lowly Minnesota (they still didn’t cover the spread in victory) and Memphis when the Grizzlies had only one starter healthy enough to play. This is not a confident team; nor are they a good team. Bickerstaff’s post-game quote following the meltdown against the Jazz didn’t inspire much confidence in this bettor either: “The season’s not over …we have no more excuses.” I’ve heard similar quotes from Bickerstaff for the better part of the last three months….
And frankly, I’m not convinced that there’s any sort of internal motivation for these Rockets to reach the playoffs. This team is likely to get blown up in the offseason. Bickerstaff is likely to be looking for a new employer as well. Their ‘reward’ for making the playoffs would be a matchup against Golden State or San Antonio, two series where Houston could very easily suffer an embarrassing sweep. It was very clear on Wednesday – the Jazz cared more about reaching the playoffs than the Rockets did!
Meanwhile, Toronto is coming off a poorly played loss at Boston; a game where the Raptors were without starting point guard Kyle Lowry and it showed! Ice cold backup Cory Joseph was a -22 in his 36 minutes of playing time. Lowry is expected back in the lineup here, fresh and rested, an absolute difference maker against a shoddy Houston defense.
Last, but not least, the Raptors have been very good off a loss. Their only two game losing streak since the first week of January came immediately before and after the All Star break, excusable defeats. Dwane Casey’s squad is 6-1 SU in their last six tries coming off a single defeat; primed to earn another victory in that role tonight.