Dave Price
Phoenix Suns +7
The Phoenix Suns have quietly been a solid bet here of late now that they have gotten some guys healthy. They are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall. I think they are catching too many points tonight against the Sacramento Kings, who appear to have packed it in. The Kings are just 3-13 in their last 16 games overall. The Kings definitely shouldn't be laying 7 points to anyone. They are just 12-22 ATS in all home games this season. Sacramento is 1-11 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.
Jack Jones
Washington Wizards -7.5
The Washington Wizards get the nod Friday as 7.5-point home favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Wizards have a lot at stake here as they are currently in 10th place in the East, 2.5 games behind the 8th-place Pistons.
The Wizards have been playing with a sense of urgency of late to try and make the playoffs, and the result has been impressive. They are 5-1 in their last six games overall, which includes four victories by 10 points or more, so rarely have they even been close.
The Timberwolves come in a bit overvalued in my opinion because they have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They are coming off a home win over the Kings, but haven't won back-to-back games since February 3-6. They are still just 23-48 on the season with little to play for.
The Timberwolves are 2-11 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in five straight games over the last three seasons. Minnesota is 6-18 ATS off a home win where it scored 110 points or more over the last three years. The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 trips to Washington. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Tony Karpinski
Iowa State vs. Virginia
Play: Iowa State +6½
A big key for Iowa St. is 6-4 G, Deonte Burton , who has great versatility and leads the second unit to get the team moving. He gets the Cyclones rocking the moment he comes off the bench. He gives them a solid 10 ppg and chips in with 4 boards as well, he is a monster momentum changer for Iowa St. Virginia is fun to watch, but I am just not sure how good they really are, they just don't seem to be able to close out with foot on the pedal, when they need to. They struggle defending the low post and they don't clear a lot off the offensive glass that well, either. Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Chip Chirimbes
Iowa State vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia -6
Contrast is styles here as the No. 1 seed Virginia Cavaliers like to make every possession count and pressure the ball where as Iowa State would prefer to run you out of the building. When it comes to match-ups like this it is the team that can impose their 'will' and control the tempo will win the game. That brings it down to coaching and is their an advantage here with one side of the other. The Cyclone are under first year head coach JOS while the Cavaliers are led by buddy holly. Virginia is 2nd nationally in defense allowing just 59.5 points and 71.8 possessions per game, while Iowa State is ranked 248.
Brandon Lee
Raptors vs. Rockets
Play: Rockets +1
Houston comes into this game in desperate need of a win, as they have dropped 3 straight, including a heartbreaking 87-89 loss at home to the Jazz in their last game. Toronto has without a doubt been the better team this season, but their focus right now is more about getting healthy for the playoffs. That was evident in their 79-91 loss at Boston in their last game, which star point guard Kyle Lowry sat out to rest. I just don't see the Raptors matching the intensity of the Rockets in this one. Keep in mind that Houston won 113-107 in Toronto earlier this season and have won 8 straight at home in the series. Raptors are just 5-16 ATS in their las t21 when revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, while Houston is 22-11 ATS in their last 33 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.
Jimmy Boyd
Magic/Heat Under 210.5
The books have set the bar too high for tonight's division matchup between the Heat and Magic. While Orlando is out of playoff contention, I expect them to come out extremely motivated against the Heat, as they try to snap a 5-game losing streak and avoid losing a fourth straight in the series.
Miami also figures to bring the intensity, as they were embarrassed last time out in a 88-112 loss at San Antonio. The Heat come in allowing just 98.1 ppg at home and only 97.8 ppg against division opponents.
The UNDER is 20-8 in Miami's last 28 games over the last 2 seasons when facing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), 24-9 in their last 33 off a blowout loss by 15 or more points and 40-16 in their last 56 after playing their previous game against a team from the Western Conference. UNDER is also 31-16 in Orlando's last 47 road games when revenging a home loss.
Ray Monohan
Hornets vs. Pistons
Play: Hornets +2
The Hornets head into Detroit on Friday night and right now this team is unstoppable. Charlotte has surged up the standings in the East and is now in a 4 way race for the 3rd seed. While Kemba Walker is dominating, it was Jeremy Lin who stepped up last game. It's been that kind of run for the Hornets, as everyone is contributing.
For the Pistons, they've been able to survive through Andre Drummond. However, this is a case where the Hornets defense is good enough to slow him down. If Drummond isn't able to control the paint, this Pistons team is in trouble.
Some trends to consider. Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit. Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Charlotte.
Look for Charlotte to control this game and shut down Drummond, as they come into Detroit and even win this one outright. Take the points.
Hollywood Sports
Iowa St at Virginia
Prediction: Over
Iowa State (23-11) will look to push the pace in his game after their 78-61 win over Arkansas-Little Rock last week, they have played 8 of their last 11 NCAA Tourney games Over the Total. The Cyclones have also played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. Virginia (28-7) shot 73% from the field in the second half in their 77-69 win over Butler to advance to the Sweet 16. The Cavaliers have played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total against a non-conference opponent. And while Virginia shoots 49.1% from the field, Iowa State has played 19 of their last 25 road games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams that shoot at least 48% from the field.
Harry Bondi
INDIANA +5.5 over North Carolina
The key for the Hoosiers in this game is to not turn the ball over and for talented freshman big man Thomas Bryant to hold his own down low against North Carolina superstar Brice Johnson. Bryant played great against Kentucky and a similar effort tonight will have Indiana in the Elite 8. As great as the Tarheels are, Indiana has the better guards, has a better bench, and the Hoosiers are the best shooting team in the country. Give me all those factors and 5 points to start and I'll take it every time!
Brad Wilton
Talk about playing them close, both Wisconsin and Notre Dame are coming off buzzer-beater wins over the weekend, the Badgers getting an unlikely three from the corner to win their game against Xavier, the Irish getting a tipin at the buzzer to take their game against a tough Stephen F. Austin team.
Accordingly, the oddmskakers have price this game right around a pick, as the Irish are the small -1 point favorite at the time I type my analysis.
My feeling is that we will not see a third game in a row that comes down to the wire bewteen the teams. Oh, it may be close and it may take a long while to decide, as I do not see either team pulling away, but in the end I like the leftover pieces from last year's Irish team that made it to the Elite Eight before bowing out to Kentucky.
Zach Auguste has really come on for Mike Brey's team, and while new coach Greg Gard does have a few leftover pieces of his own from last year's runner up team, I think the Badgers road to Houston gets derailed in this meeting in Philadelphia where the Irish figure to have a few more fans in the seats than the Badgers.
Notre Dame the call.
2* NOTRE DAME
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 32-20 runwith complimentary play: Indiana vs. North Carolina(-5, 159), at Philadelphia
The STORYLINE in this game today - The total is high for a reason - these teams like to shoot, and they can score. But that doesn't mean the teams are going to push the total high. I think Indiana and North Carolina are teams that like to utilize the entire shot clock, and like to play selfish basketball. That said, this number is too high, and the under is the play.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Defense is my factor, specifically because the both average more than 80 points per game. Just like with last night's freebie I gave you, we have the same scenario. Looking at what these teams produce, I think the oddsmakers have overcompensated and we're going to see a lower-than expected score with both teams stepping up their defensive efforts - more so with UNC. The Hoosiers make an average of nine 3-pointers a game, almost double North Carolina's five. So the Heels will be pressuring the ball.
BOTTOM LINE is - Don't be surprised if turnovers are a big difference in this one. The Hoosiers have averaged 12.5 in the tournament, one below their season average, so you're going to see a lot of pressure on the ball, at both ends of the floor.
3* Indiana/North Carolina Under
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Wizards to get back on track at the expense of the Timberwolves.
Washington just split a home-and-home with Atlanta, and their loss on Wednesday stopped a 5-game win and cover streak for the Wizards.
Look for Washington to get back on track tonight at home as they play a Minnesota team that they have knocked off 3 of the last 5 times the teams have met both straight up and against the spread.
The Wizards domination goes a little deeper than that, as they are on a 9-1 spread run the last 10 meetings in D.C.. They are also 13-6 against the spread the last 19 overall series meetings with Minny.
Minnesota is playing decent ball right now, but Washington has designs on grabbing a playoff spot still, so inclined to lay it with the Wizards at home here on Friday night.
4* WASHINGTON
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Atlanta Hawks, who finally look like a resurrected team that are resembled the same team that produced the Eastern Conference's best record last season. They're not as good as they were, but they're much better than they were two weeks ago.
Tonight they're going to roast the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season, as they've won 11 of 14 since Feb. 26 to move a half-game ahead of Miami and Charlotte in an unexpected tight Southeast race.
They're also tied third overall in the East with Boston.
Atlanta is in after Wednesday's 122-101 victory at Washington. The Hawks held Washington to 42.4 percent shooting and scored 25 points off 18 turnovers in a rematch from Monday.
The Hawks have limited opponents to 40.3 percent overall and 29.8 percent from 3 - both league bests - during this 14-game winning run.
Look for a swarm of 3s from Atlanta, as the Hawks roll.
2* HAWKS
Chris Jordan
Four nights ago the Washington Wizards opened the week by stifling the Atlanta Hawks. Two nights later the Hawks went into D.C. and returned the favor.
The Wizards are pissed. Poor Minnesota.
I will steadily back John Wall, one of my favorite point guards in the NBA. It's always been a shame he stays in the shadows of so many. And he, nor Bradley Beal, don't take losing too well.
I expect the Wizards to bounce back strong tonight, against a Minnesota team that is 4-8 in its last 12. Tonight Washington will use momentum to win its 11th in 12 home games after having a season-high five-game win streak snapped in that 122-101 loss to Atlanta on Wednesday.
The loss dropped the Wizards to 2 1/2 games behind Detroit for the Eastern Conference's final playoff spot, and they desperately need to win games right now. They've won four straight over the Timberwolves.
3* WIZARDS