Sam Martin
Virginia Commonwealth at Florida State
Prediction: Virginia Commonwealth
Despite beating both Georgetown and Purdue by 18 points each - while listed as medium-sized underdogs no less - Virginia Commonwealth has apparently not yet impressed the linesmakers as they are once again listed as an underdog here tonight against #10 seed Florida State. To the Seminoles credit, they have played very well themselves so far, beating Texas A&M in a virtual pick 'em spot and then upsetting Notre Dame their last time out.
Both of these teams have been very impressive defensively in this tournament, and while we consider both defenses a wash, we do give Virginia Commonwealth a big edge on offense. Florida State lured the Aggies and Irish out of their comfort zone offensively by slowing down the pace to low-scoring games, but the Rams are comfortable in a slow game pace. VCU pulls out another upset win! 5* Play on Virginia Commonwealth.
Marc Lawrence
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers
When the Sixers meet the Heat in Miami Friday night Philadelphia will take the court looking to avenge a pair of losses in the last two meetings in this series this season. Aside from being one the best road teams in the league this campaign, the Sixers are 7-1 ATS as dogs on Fridays whereas the Heat are a rather cool 0-4 ATS at home on Fridays. With Miami a money burner as home chalk this season behind the Three Egos (12-22-1 ATS), we'll side with the Sixers here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.
Frank Jordan
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -9.5
This is a battle between the two LA basketball teams with rising rookie star in Blake Griffin against the stud star Kobe Bryant. The Lakers are on fire with a current five game winning streak and have wins in nine of 10 as they host the team they share the building with. LA Clippers have won six of 10 so playing well of late and with this a road game they are just 8-27 on the road but 20-17 so should be decent game for first three quarters. Look for the Lakers to pour it on late in the fourth. Play LA Lakers
Cajun Sports
Sacramento Kings vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Sacramento Kings +7.5
The Kings travel to Indiana for a meeting against the host Pacers on Friday night. This will be the Kings fourth road game in the last six days. No real reason to worry some put too much emphasis on this particular situation even I have used it before but you should look at it on a case-by-case basis. Sacramento is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons. They are also 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) revenging a same season loss this season. Indiana went into Sacramento back on November 30 as a four-point road favorite and came away with a 107 to 98 victory. Our Play ON team qualifies in several key technical situations we found researching our powerful NBA database for tonight’s game. When the Kings are coming off a SU win as an underdog and are now playing in the current price range they are a blistering 18-2-2 ATS. If you put them on the highway in that same situation we find they are perfect at 10-0-1 ATS. Install them, as underdogs in the original situation the Kings are 11-1-1 ATS but make them a road underdog and they are perfect with an 8-0-1 ATS mark. If Sacramento is coming off a road spread win as an underdog and now play in the current price range they are 21-3-5 ATS their last 29 times to post. If the Kings won SU/ATS on the road as an underdog in their last game and now play in the current price range they are a money-making 14-1-2 ATS their last 17 qualifying contests. The database research also uncovered a league-wide system that tells us to Play AGAINST (Indiana) NBA teams coming off a spread victory as a road underdog in a game in which it went Over the posted total and are now installed as a non-conference home favorite. These home favorites are a miserable 97-148-4 ATS. Finally, we want to Play AGAINST NBA home teams that average between 98 and 102 points per game against a team that struggles on the defensive end of the floor allowing 102 or more points per game, after scoring at least one-hundred points in two straight games. Playing against these home teams has produced a record of 53-25 ATS for 68 percent winners the last five seasons. Take the generous points here as the Kings avenge that earlier loss to the Pacers.
BIG AL
San Antonio @ Portland
PICK: Portland
The Spurs are in real jeopardy of losing their top spot in the Playoffs, as they are now just six games ahead of the surging Lakers with 11 to play. And without their floor leader -- Tim Duncan -- that six game lead could evaporate rather quickly over the next 8 days, as the Spurs must play Portland (twice), Memphis, Boston and Houston. Tonight's game seems to be the toughest of the bunch, as Portland has covered the spread in 7 straight at the Rose Garden vs. San Antonio, and has won six of those seven games straight-up. Here, of course, Portland will be favored (and rightfully so), and I look for LaMarcus Aldridge to have a field day vs. the Spurs' depleted frontcourt. When these two teams met in early February, Aldridge had a great night, and poured in 40 points (then, a career high) against a Spurs team which had Duncan manning the middle. Against rookie Tiago Splitter and veteran Antonio McDyess, Aldridge should dominate. The Blazers also now have Brandon Roy back from injury, and have Gerald Wallace (acquired in a trade deadline deal) in the fold, as well. Take Portland minus the points.
Ray Monohan
Marquette vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -4½
Marquette the #11 seed looks to keep its postseason run going Friday when it faces #2 seeded North Carolina in an East Regional semifinal in Newark, N.J. North Carolina should be able use its advantage under the boards to create opportunities on both ends of the court to win and cover the 4.5 points. Here's why. Both teams can - and will - score in bunches, but the Tar Heels' size advantage in the paint should prove decisive. UNC has won 16 of its last 18 games since freshman Kendall Marshall took over as the starting PG. He absolutly is playing his best ball of the year. Throw in Harrison Barnes,a potent offense that has totaled 188 points in two tournament games, and junior forward Tyler Zeller's 15.2 points and you have a dynamic offense that Marquette just can't match. Trends I like in this one include, Tar Heels are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5, are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games, and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Jim Feist
Washington Wizards vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -15
Teams in Denver like to go uptempo to take advantage of the thin, mountain air on opponents. Into town come the lifeless Washington Wizards, a team on a 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS run playing no defense. This is the third straight road game for Washington, a long way from home, and they are 1-33 on the road! The Wizards are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games and 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games overall. While the Knicks are stumbling with Carmelo Anthony, Denver is thriving with a new faces, a young athletic team. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games overall. They returned home from an impressive 4-game road trip (4-0 ATS), which included close losses at Miami (85-82) and Orlando (103-98) by blowing out Toronto, 123-90. Nene had 18 points and seven rebounds, and J.R. Smith had a near triple-double: 13 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. Then the Spurs came to town and the Nuggets have had a day to rest after a thrilling come from behind 115-112 victory. The Nuggets are 11-4 since the Carmelo Anthony trade. Look for a superior effort by the young, hungry home team that continues to overachieve. Play the Nuggets.
Brad Diamond Sports
Kansas over Richmond
Would love to find reasons to support the Spiders of Richmond, however, must back highly talented and deep Jayhawks (34-2). No doubt the Spiders have NBA types, but the pressure is really on HC Chris Mooney this time around. In addition, the Southwest Region will end up bringing a huge array of Kansas fans to the battle with a bit of home court favoritism. The Jayhawks opened the tourney with a scary 72-53, but then put away the Illini 73-59. Here they face the talented Morris brothers who are difficult to stop. The aggressive youngsters managed 41 points in their battle with the Illini and will no doubt dent the Richmond interior. Technically, there are conflicts as Richmond is 41-14 ATS as an UNDERDOG in this price range and 7-0-1 ATS as a puppy at a neutral site. Kansas is a perfect 4-0 ATS versus the Atlantic-10 and 9-4 ATS as chalk in the NCAA within this price range. With the Morris brothers creating havoc, must back my tourney favorite here.
James Patrick Sports
Bobcats vs. Celtics
The Charlotte Bobcats are (7-15) ATS in their last (22) games following a double-digit loss at home while the Celtics check in at (23-9) ATS in their last (32) games following a straight up loss and the Shamrocks are (16-7-1) ATS in their last (2 4) when facing the NBA Southeast. Big Game James Patrick's Friday NBA complimentary selection is Boston Celtics.
JR O'Donnell
Kansas -10.5
34-2 Kansas Jayhawks - the points as the "END THE MAGIC RICHMOND RUN" tonight in the Big Dance @ San Antonio. The Power ratings check in here @ - 14.8 points in this battle. These Jayhawks are 18-8 in Sweet 16 battles and coach Self has them going!! The Jayhawks are making there 5th appearance in the Sweet 16 under Self. The Morris brothers will be to much here tonight and the capped #'s are strong. How about a + 17.1 margin as they light the lamp @ 81ppg and allow 64. Jayhawks have buzzed off 10 straight W's and they flat out clean the glass at a +8 rebound margin. Jr does not like to lay the chalk but the #'s are strong. The Spiders are 29-7 and have buzzed off 9 in a row, but the A-10 is NOT THE BIG 12!!!!!!!!! #'S here punch in @ Jayhawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6-12.5.
Craig Trapp
Va Commonwealth vs. Florida State
Play: Va Commonwealth +4
The uptempo style of VCU will be too much for the FSU team. Florida State can win if they can keep this in the half court but don't think they can do it. Well take the 2nd hottest team in VCU as they run and gun to another win and cover here. 4 1/2 star play here on VCU with the pts
Tom Stryker
Memphis vs. Chicago
Play: Chicago -9
Without question, Chicago is one of the hottest teams in the league right now. The Bulls have won 10 of their last 11 (9-2 ATS) including their last two by margins of 40 and 33 points respectively. Chicago owns a one-game lead in the race for the top spot in the East and they're not about to let up now.
This series between the Bulls and Grizzlies has been dominated by the home team. According to my NBA database, the host owns a respectable 17-4 SU and 16-5 ATS record in the last 21 meetings. Of course, playing well in the United Center is something Chicago has done well lately. In their last 28 in the Windy City, Da Bulls are a solid 26-2 SU and 21-7 ATS including a profitable 17-2 ATS in their last 19 in this role priced as an underdog or a favorite of -9' or less.
Off three straight wins and covers against Indiana, Utah and Boston, this will be a tough encore for Memphis. As a road dog priced at +8 or more checking in off a straight up win, the Grizzlies have lost their growl notching a weak 1-22 SU and 7-16 ATS record including 0-14 SU and 2-12 ATS in this set if they were priced as an underdog last.
In order to hold on to the No. 1 spot in the East, the Bulls need to win games like these. Surprisingly, the Grizzlies were victorious in their last trip to the United Center picking up a 105-96 victory back on March 4th, 2010. Not this time. Take Chicago.
Ben Burns
Detroit @ Cleveland
PICK: Under 197.5
This O/U number has climbed a bit from its opener. I feel its providing us with solid value on the "under."
I successfully played on the Pistons "over" in their last road game, a 104-96 loss at Atlanta. However, even with that result, the "under" is still a lucrative 22-13 when they've played away from The Palace. That includes a 4-2 "under" mark, when they've played a road game with an O/U line in the 195 to 199.5 range. For the season, Detroit road games are averaging 191.1 combined points, far less than their home games.
The Cavaliers have quietly been on quite the "under" streak. In fact, they've now seen six straight games fall below the total. Their last game went to OT and still stayed below the total, finishing with 192 combined points.
After that effort, coach Byron Scott was quoted as saying: "Our guys really battled and did a real good job defensively, and that is something that we have been talking about - trying to establish that as our foundation..."
Consider the Under.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida St –4 over VCU
The Rams finished fourth in the Colonial Athletic Association behind Hofstra, George Mason and Old Dominion. Hofstra didn’t make this event and GMU and ODU were both one and done. VCU has won three games in this year’s tourney and its smallest margin of victory has been 13 points. They whacked both Georgetown and Purdue and now its stock is soaring off the charts, which is the wrong time to wager on them. The Rams went 12-6 in the CAA, they rank 301st in the country in rebounding and they haven’t come close to facing a defense like the one they’ll see here. The Seminoles have a stronger pedigree on all counts including defeats of Texas A&M and Notre Dame, the latter by 14, in this tournament. FSU plays a suffocating defense that completely frustrates and alters the opposition’s comfort level. You would have to go back more than a decade to find a defense that allowed a lower shooting percentage than FSU’s. The Seminoles offense is a lot better than advertised too. The so-called experts (the same one’s that suggested Arizona had no chance against Duke) are suggesting that Florida’s offense can’t keep up with VCU. Baloney. They won’t need to and they won’t need to score 75 or more, although against the Rams defense they might put up 80+. The Rams are a nice story but what we have here is a hugely overvalued pooch against a very undervalued favorite and it wouldn’t surprise us to see a 15-point victory or more by the superior Seminoles. Play: Florida St –4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Richmond +10½ over Kansas
Unlike the Rams, the Spiders have proven all season long that they’re for real. They played in the very credible A-10 Conference and they also played a credible non-conference schedule. Richmond’s non-conference games featured victories over Purdue (65-54), VCU (72-60) and Seton Hall (69-61). They’ve now won nine in a row and 13 of their last 14 games. This seed makes you wonder if anyone on the Committee saw Richmond play. The Spiders have a dynamic point guard in Kevin Anderson and a solid 6’ 10” forward in Justin Harper, with that latter tabled as an NBA draft pick. Few teams in college basketball have a one-two punch quite like this duo. There’s also stalwart Dan Geirot who led the league with 248 made 3’s. Kansas makes this event every year. The last time they missed it was in 1989 and just like they are this season, they’re commonly seeded as a #1 or #2. The Jayhawks are also winning at pace that would make Charlie Sheen envious. However, their tournament résumé is a weak one. They beat Boston U in round one and Illinois in round two. They have a very shaky history of struggling in these rounds and truth be told, it’s been difficult all season long identifying the best team in the country. Make no mistake, the Jayhawks are very good but once again you’re going to have to pay a premium to wager on this very popular program against a relative unknown. It’s also worth noting that the Spiders have not been a 10½-point pup all year and spotting this very dangerous doggy these generous points is likely to be detrimental to your bankroll. Play: Richmond +10½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Red Dog Sports
John Henson (UNC) Over 10 rebounds (+100)
John Henson of UNC has been a nice rebounder for the Tar Heels. He averages about 10.1 per game but he has 10 or more in his last 10 games. He has 10, 11, 18, 11, 13, 12, 12, 15, 15 and 12 in recent games. The Tar Heels face Marquette on Friday night and are one of the best rebounding teams in the country. The over/under is set for 150 points so there should be plenty of shots missed and opportunities for Henson to grab some miscues to get over 10.