Telly
One of my Four Free Plays Tonight
Kentucky +6
Michael Alexander
Washington Wizards vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -15.5
Rating: 1 Unit
WASHINGTON is 8-27 ATS (-21.7 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season this season
WASHINGTON is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on New Orleans Hornets +5
The Hornets were pushed to the limit by Utah last night and could be without David West tonight, but I still like them catching 5 big points. The Hornets are playing really good basketball, and they don't want to give up any ground in the Western Conference playoff race. They have quietly won 6 of their last 9 with those 3 defeats coming to Chicago, Denver and Boston. The Hornets defeated the Suns by 5 points at home last week and they only lost by 2 in Phoenix in January. The Suns will be looking for a little revenge, but they have been terrible in such spots. Phoenix is just 2-10 ATS in home games when looking to avenge a loss to an opponent this season. It is only 1-8 ATS in home games when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent this season, losing these games by an average score of 108.6 to 99.6. The Hornets are an impressive 8-0 ATS in their last 8 Friday games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Chris Paul has been sensational against the Suns, averaging 26.5 points and 10.8 assists in his last four games against them. Expect the Hornets to get the cover behind a big game from Paul tonight.
Rocketman
San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -4
Portland is 7-2 SU and ATS overall vs San Antonio the past 3 years including a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS at home. Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Trail Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Trail Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Trail Blazers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest. Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Trail Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Trail Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Trail Blazers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Spurs are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Spurs are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Portland. We'll recommend a small play on Portland tonight!
Jack Jones
Orlando Magic -12.5
The Orlando Magic should run away with this game against New Jersey Friday for a number of reasons. The Nets are without Deron Williams, and they are also without Sundiata Gaines and Damion James who have each been playing quite a bit recently. Being short-handed is not going to help a New Jersey team that is simply exhausted right now. This will be the Nets 6th game in 9 days which is a very tough spot for any NBA team to handle, especially a short-handed one.
Orlando has won six straight meetings with New Jersey, with five of those wins coming by double-digits including a 104-88 road victory the last time these teams got together. The Nets are just 5-29 on the road this season and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games. Orlando is 14-3 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Nets are 17-37 ATS in their last 54 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Bet the Magic Friday.
David Chan
Florida Panthers @ Buffalo Sabres
PICK: Buffalo Sabres
I bet value where I see it. In some cases, like this one, that involves laying some extra "wood." Considering that Florida can't score, I expect the Sabres to be well worth the "price of admission."
The Panthers have been blanked in back to back games, getting outscored by a combined score of 5-0. They're averaging 1.8 goals per game their last five. For the season, they score just 2.2 gpg on the road.
Florida coach Peter DeBoer remarked: "You're not going to win any games unless you score a goal, and that’s been our problem here for a few games now."
The Sabres are off a 2-0 shutout win at Montreal. Ryan Miller, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, was excellent in goal. The Sabres scored 11 goals their last two home games. They're averaging 3.8 gpg their last five and 3.0 at home on the season.
With the Sabres fighting for the playoffs and the Panthers now "playing out the string," I'm backing Buffalo.
Teddy Covers
New Orleans @ Phoenix
PICK: Phoenix -5
New Orleans has three irreplaceable players on their roster. They were able to survive a couple of games without Chris Paul in the lineup earlier this month when Jarrett Jack stepped up with a enormous effort. But the Hornets had no success without center Emeka Okafor, a woeful 2-8 ATS during the ten games Okafor missed before the All Star break.
The third irreplaceable player for Monty Williams’ squad is their All Star power forward, David West. West went down with a serious knee injury in last night’s OT win at Utah. He was taken off the court in a wheelchair, and even though X-rays came back negative, he’s not going to see any floor time tonight. On a team that lacks low post depth and muscle, West’s injury is a major concern, even against a team like Phoenix.
The Suns are still fighting hard for a playoff spot. They’ve been an undervalued commodity in recent weeks since Channing Frye (their own under-the-radar pointspread sparkplug) returned to the lineup, riding a 5-0-1 ATS hot streak into tonight’s contest. The Suns have won three straight meeting with the Hornets in Phoenix and five of the last seven meetings overall, a good matchup for the home team. Facing a tired, banged up Hornets squad gives Phoenix another prime opportunity to make up some ground against a team that’s four games ahead of them in the standings. 2* Take Phoenix.
Larry Ness
Santa Clara @ Southern Methodist
PICK: Santa Clara +4
SMU’s Matt Doherty has had a checkered coaching career but he’s done a terrific job with this year’s SMU team. SMU had no “Big Dance” aspirations but was thrilled to get a CIT bid with a 17-14 record and has made its visit ‘count.’ The Mustangs ‘limped into the C-USA tourney with five losses in their last seven games and then lost a one-point game to Rice. The Mustangs escaped with an OT win at home vs Oral Roberts and then got a one-point win over Jacksonville before surprising Northern Iowa 57-50 on the road. Not it’s back home where the team has gone a solid 15-5 SU. The 6-9 Dia (18.7-9.7) and the 6-8 Nyakundi (14.3-4.1) are a nice frontcourt pair but while the team has depth on the perimeter (six guards play), there are no stars (that’s being nice). The starters are Smarrippas (7.5-3.5 APG), Walker (6.9) and Mangrum (5.8). As for Santa Clara, the Broncos are coming off an 11-21 season last year but returned all five starters. Santa Clara went 8-6 in the WCC this season and home wins over Northern Arizona and Air Force plus a 95-91 win at San Francisco here in the CIT gets this year’s team to 22 wins (one more win than the team had losses LY). The return to health of guard Foster (19.9-3.8 APG), who missed all but six games last year with a foot injury, plus the play of freshman guard Roquemore (12.2-3.8 APG) has made the biggest impact on the team's major improvement this year. However, don't dismiss the importance of 6-9 junior Trasolini (13.0-6.0) inside. Starting up front with Trasolini are the 6-7 Dowdell (8.1-4.6) and the 6-6 Payne (5.2-5.9). That trio must somewhat neutralize Dia and Nyakundi, while Foster and Roquemore take the SMU guards ‘to school.’ Foster has averaged 31.5-4.0-5.0 the last two games with Roquemore netting 30 points at San Francisco, after averaging 13.0 PPG in the Broncos’ first two CIT wins. I’m betting on Santa Clara’s two guards to control the flow of this game. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Memphis +9½ over CHICAGO
The talk this week regarding the Bulls is that they’re good enough to win the East and perhaps an NBA Championship. No team in the league is playing better than these Bulls. The problem with all that exposure and positive press is that inflated lines tend to tag along. To heighten matters even more, the Bulls are coming off back-to-back 30-point wins and that has bettors taking notice. Enter a very gritty but unheralded Grizzlies club that just went into Boston and beat the Celtics by three. The Grizz are 18-8 over their last 26 games, they’re 40-32 overall and they’re fighting to hold onto the final playoff spot. Memphis has been bringing it almost every game recently and chances are they’ll bring it here too. Also worth noting is this very low posted total of 186. When a total is that low and you’re taking back 9 points against an inflated line, you’re going with the best of it. Play: Memphis +9½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
CLEVELAND +4½/+171 over Detroit
It’s not easy pulling the trigger on the pitiful Cavaliers but the Pistons are coming off a game against Miami in which they played their hearts out and one must wonder how they’re going to bring anything remotely close to that intensity in the most meaningless game of the Pistons’ season. Detroit has pulled a whole slew of no-shows this year and this one has that same stench. Adding to this fade is Detroit’s 7-26 road record. Cleveland is short on talent, we all know that, but they come to play, especially at home and they are playing better as of late. The Cavs’ last two games have come against Orlando and a much-improved Nets squad. They hung with the Magic, eventually losing by nine and then took the Nets to OT. This is a Cleveland team that surely can sense a win here and when wins have come at a premium, you can expect a very spirited effort from this host. Same can’t be said for Pistons in this spot. Play: Cleveland +4½ (Risking 1.05 units). Play: Cleveland +4 (Risking 1.05 units). Play: Cleveland +171 (Risking 2 units).