Scott Spreitzer
Northern Iowa v. Michigan State
Pick: Under
If ultra-athletic UNLV and top-ranked Kansas could not get Northern Iowa to stray from their deliberate game plan, it's hard to imagine Michigan State will be able to do so without the services of Kalin Lucas. No doubt Tom Izzo will still try to quicken the tempo with Korie Lucious taking over at the point. After all, he can't afford to let UNI run their style of play, or MSU will be back in East Lansing by Saturday morning. But when teams have tried to run against the Panthers, it has led to turnover after turnover. Even Kansas lost the handle 15 times last weekend. UNI has the unique ability to shut off the paint with an outstanding zone on the defensive end, yet still put endless pressure on the ball handler. Coach Ben Jacobson diagrams the team's offensive sets and plays for the entire first half. The team doesn't look to run. They're incredibly disciplined, and will force their game on MSU. UNI possessions on the offensive end will go deep into the shot-clock. At the same time, when UNI misses, they're not likely to get many second chances. MSU crushed Maryland, 42-24 on the glass last weekend, and they rank 3rd in the nation in rebounds per game allowed, at 26.1. Both teams are outstanding on the defensive end, and I believe we received nice value on the Under thanks to MSU's 85-83 win over the Terps, and also with UNI's first two tourney games topping 130 points. Northern Iowa's neutral court tilts have played to the Under 20 of the last 27 times. They're also 6-0 to the Under as a dog (+1 at the time of this release). I believe we're in for a deliberate, well played defensive tilt, and I'm playing the Under on Friday.