SPORTS ADVISORS
MIDWEST REGIONAL
(at St. Louis, Mo.)
(6) Tennessee (27-8, 14-16-2 ATS) vs. (2) Ohio State (29-7, 18-18 ATS)
The Volunteers posted a pair of victories in Providence, R.I., last week, barely holding off No. 11 seed San Diego State 62-59 as a three-point favorite in the first round then knocking out upstart and 14th-seeded Ohio 83-68 as a nine-point favorite. Tennessee has won nine of its last 11 overall (5-5-1 ATS), and though both losses were by double digits (74-45 to Kentucky in the SEC tournament and 75-62 at Florida), the nine wins were by an average of 9.8 points per game.
Ohio State rolled through the first two rounds of the Big Dance in Milwaukee, crushing U.C. Santa Barbara 68-51 (falling just short as a 17½-point favorite) and knocking out Georgia Tech 75-66 (barely cashing as a seven-point chalk). The Buckeyes have won nine in a row, 15 of 16 and 18 of 20, with both losses coming by a total of eight points to two teams (West Virginia and Purdue) that are also in the Sweet 16.
These teams met three times in a 51-week stretch in 2007 and 2008. Ohio State won the first two by a total of three points – 68-66 at home in January 2007 and 85-84 in the Sweet 16 of the 2007 Tournament – with Tennessee getting revenge 74-69 at home in January 2008. The underdog cashed in all three games, however.
The Vols are in the Sweet 16 for the third time in the last four years, suffering the narrow loss to Ohio State in 2007 and getting crushed by Louisville 79-60 in 2008. Tennessee has never made it past this round.
Ohio State – which lost in the opening round last year and failed to qualify for the Big Dance in 2008 – is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since reaching the national championship game in 2007. This is just the Buckeyes’ fourth Sweet 16 appearance since 1968, and it went 3-0 SU in the previous three, beating Tennessee in 2007, Auburn in 1999 (72-64) and North Carolina in 1992 (80-73).
Tennessee is now 7-2 at neutral sites this season (4-4-1 ATS), averaging 70.4 ppg while allowing 62.3 ppg. Ohio State is 6-1 at neutral venues (3-4 ATS), outscoring opponents by nearly 10 ppg (77-67.7).
The Volunteers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four as a neutral-site underdog and 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 after a spread-cover, but otherwise they’re on pointspread upticks of 4-0-1 in non-conference play, 4-1-1 versus the Big Ten, 4-1 on Friday and 22-9-1 as an underdog of less than seven points.
Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite of less than seven points and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 versus winning teams, but the Buckeyes also carry negative pointspread stretches of 4-11 in the Tournament, 3-10 as a Tournament favorite, 1-6 when laying less than seven points in the tourney, 1-6 in non-conference play and 2-5 on Friday.
It’s been all “unders” for Tennessee lately, including 21-8-1 overall, 8-3 in non-league play, 6-1-1 at neutral sites, 23-9 as an underdog, 19-7 when catching less than seven points, 4-0 as a neutral-site pup and 3-0-1 on Friday. Conversely, the Buckeyes sport a slew of “over” trends, including 4-1 overall, 7-2 in the Tournament, 6-1 as a tourney favorite, 4-1 at neutral sites and 11-2 as a neutral-site chalk, though the under is 13-6 in Ohio State’s last 19 on Friday.
Finally, when these teams met in the 2007 Big Dance, the 85-84 contest flew over the 144½-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
(9) Northern Iowa (30-4, 22-11 ATS) vs. (5) Michigan State (26-8, 13-20 ATS)
The Panthers pulled off the shocker of the Tournament – and one of the biggest in the history of this event – in upsetting top-ranked Kansas 69-67 as an 11-point underdog in Saturday’s second round in Oklahoma City. Point guard Ali Farokhmanesh, who hit a game-winning 25-foot three-pointer to beat UNLV 69-66 in the first round, drained the decisive three-pointer against Kansas with 34 seconds to play. Northern Iowa led wire-to-wire against the Jayhawks despite getting outshot (44.4 percent to 40 percent) and outrebounded (32-27), but the Panthers were able to force 15 Kansas turnovers.
Northern Iowa has won six in a row, going 5-0 ATS in the last five. And despite yielding 66 points to UNLV and 67 to Kansas, the Missouri Valley Conference champs still have the second-best scoring defense in the country (55 ppg allowed). However, in their four losses, they scored 52, 51, 59 and 54 points.
Michigan State reached the Sweet 16 for the third year in a row, but it wasn’t easy, as it blew large second-half leads against New Mexico State and Maryland but pulled out both games by scores of 70-67 (as a 13-point favorite) and 85-83 (as a one-point underdog), respectively, in Spokane, Wash. In Sunday’s win over Maryland, the Spartans trailed 83-82 in the waning moments when reserve point guard Korie Lucious – in the game because starter Kalin Lucas suffered a first-half injury – drained a three-pointer at the buzzer to steal the win.
Since suffering a three-game losing streak in the middle of the Big Ten season, Michigan State has won seven of its last nine, going just 5-4 ATS during this stretch. On the downside for the Spartans, Lucas – who leads the team in scoring, assists and minutes played – suffered a ruptured Achilles in the win over Maryland is out for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, shooting guard Chris Allen, who missed much of Sunday’s game with a foot injury, is listed as probable.
This is unchartered territory for Northern Iowa, which was dealt a five-point first-round loss by Purdue last year and had just one Tournament victory (back in 1990) in five all-time appearances before last week. This is the first time a team from the Missouri Valley Conference has reached the Sweet 16 since 1979.
The Spartans edged Kansas 67-62 in the Sweet 16 last year en route to the national championship game. Prior to that, they hadn’t advanced to the Elite Eight since 2005. Still, going back to 1999, Tom Izzo’s squad is 6-0 SU in this round of the Tournament.
Northern Iowa is now 7-1 (6-2 ATS) at neutral venues this season, averaging 65.5 ppg and yielding 57.8 ppg. Michigan State has still only played five neutral-site contests (including the last three in a row), going 3-2 (2-3 ATS) while pouring in 80.4 ppg and surrendering 73.4 ppg.
In addition to cashing in five straight games overall, the Panthers are on pointspread surges of 38-17 overall, 7-0 in non-conference play, 9-2 versus the Big Ten, 54-24 as an underdog, 35-16 as a pup of less than seven points, 6-0 at neutral sites, 5-0 as a neutral-site underdog.
Michigan State is on ATS upticks of 3-1-1 against the Missouri Valley Conference, 21-6-2 as a favorite of less than seven points, 6-2 in the Tournament, 16-4-1 as a Tournament favorite and 4-0 when favored by less than seven in the Big Dance. Conversely, the Spartans are in ATS slumps of 1-4 in non-conference play, 1-4 as a chalk overall, 2-8 against winning teams and 0-5 on Friday.
Northern Iowa has topped the total in four of its last five non-conference games, and both of its games last weekend flew over the posted price. Still, the Panthers are riding “under” streaks of 21-8 overall, 4-1 versus the Big Ten, 37-16-1 as an underdog, 20-7 at neutral venues, 11-1 as a neutral-site pup and 9-3 on Friday. Meanwhile, the Spartans have stayed low in four straight against the Missouri Valley and four of five on Friday, but they’re also on “over” stretches of 5-1 at neutral sites, 5-2 as a favorite and 4-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
SOUTH REGIONAL
(at Houston)
(10) St. Mary’s (28-5, 21-10 ATS) vs. (3) Baylor (27-7, 17-10 ATS)
St. Mary’s was one of three double-digit seeds to advance past the first weekend of the Big Dance, and the Gaels did so rather easily. Playing in Providence, they defeated seventh-seeded Richmond 80-71 as a one-point underdog and shocked No. 2-seed Villanova 75-68 as a four-point pup. St. Mary’s, whose only previous Big Dance win came 51 years ago, outshot Richmond and Villanova by a combined 49.5 percent to 41 percent, and big man Omar Samhan was the difference-maker, tallying a total of 61 points and 19 rebounds in 60 minutes of action.
The Bears, who hadn’t won a Tournament game since 1950 and were making just their third Big Dance appearance since then, survived tough tests in New Orleans against a pair of double-digit seeds to earn this trip to nearby Houston. First, they got past Sam Houston State 68-59 (failing to cover as a 9½-point favorite), then eliminated Old Dominion 76-68 as a four-point chalk. Both games were tight in the final five minutes before Baylor pulled away down the stretch. Defense proved to be the difference, as the Bears held Sam Houston State and Old Dominion to a combined 46-for-121 from the field (38 percent).
The Gaels, who won the West Coast Conference tournament to secure their automatic bid, have won seven in a row (6-1 ATS). Meanwhile, Baylor is on a 10-2 SU run, going 4-2 ATS in the last six following a 1-5 ATS downturn.
St. Mary’s first appearance in the Big Dance came in 1959 and it won its first game, then suffered five straight Tournament defeats prior to last weekend’s 2-0 sweep. Meanwhile, the last time Baylor won consecutive games in the Big Dance was in 1948, and it has never gone farther in this event.
The Gaels’ spread-covers last weekend ended a 1-8 ATS slump as a neutral-site underdog. They come into tonight on pointspread runs of 4-0 overall, 21-5-1 in non-conference play, 5-0 at neutral sites, 5-2 as an underdog, 5-2 as a pup of six points or less and 4-1 on Friday.
The Bears sport ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 7-1 in non-conference action, 5-1 as a favorite, 5-0 when laying less than seven points, 19-7 at neutral sites, 4-1 as a favorite at neutral venues and 7-3 on Friday.
The under is 9-3 in the Gaels’ last 12 overall, 8-2 in their last 10 after a victory and 5-1 in their last six as a ‘dog at neutral sites, but St. Mary’s is also on “over” runs of 19-7 in non-conference action, 10-4-1 as a pup of less than seven points and 4-0-1 on Friday. Meanwhile, Baylor has stayed low in five of seven in non-league play, but otherwise is on “over” surges of 5-1 overall (1-1 in the Tournament), 14-2 after a SU win, 11-1 after a spread-cover, 4-0 as a favorite of less than seven points and 6-0 on Friday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(4) Purdue (29-5, 14-18-2 ATS) vs. (1) Duke (31-5, 20-13-2 ATS)
The Boilermakers needed a huge second-half rally to get past 13th-seeded Siena in round one last week (72-64 as a 4½-point favorite), then required overtime against Texas A&M on Sunday, winning 63-61 as a two-point pup. With the two wins in Spokane, Wash., Purdue erased the nightmare of their 27-point Big Ten tournament semifinal loss to Minnesota. Also, in cashing against both Siena and Texas A&M, the Boilers snapped an 0-6-1 ATS drought. Going back to mid-January, Purdue is 15-2 SU but just 7-9-1 ATS.
Duke toyed with its two first-round opponents in Jacksonville, Fla., hammering play-in-game winner Arkansas-Pine Bluff (73-44 as a 24-point favorite) and crushing eighth-seeded California (68-53 as a 6½-point favorite). The Blue Devils have won six in a row and 14 of their last 15, and of their five losses this season, four have come against teams that reached the Tournament (Maryland, Georgetown, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin).
These teams have met twice in the last six seasons, with the road team taking both contests. Purdue rolled 78-68 as a nine-point road underdog in 2003, while the Blue Devils cruised 76-60 as a two-point pup in December 2008.
This is the Boilermakers’ second straight trip to the Sweet 16, as last year it bowed out to eventual Final Four participant UConn, losing 72-60 as a seven-point underdog. That followed three straight second-round exits in 2003, 2007 and 2008. The last time Purdue made it through to the Elite Eight was in 2000 – the only time it has done so since 1994.
Duke has made 34 Tournament appearances in school history, including 14 in a row, and it is a No. 1 seed for the 11th time overall and the sixth time this decade. However, last year the Blue Devils got blasted by Villanova 77-54 in the Sweet 16, their third consecutive SU and ATS loss in this round. The last time Duke reached the Elite Eight was in 2004 (also its last Final Four appearance).
Purdue is 7-1 (3-3-2 ATS) in neutral-site action (the only blemish being the ugly loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament). In the seven wins, the Boilermakers averaged 72.1 ppg and given up 61.4 ppg. Meanwhile, Duke has won all nine of its neutral-site contests this season (6-3 ATS), outscoring opponents by 15.3 ppg (70.4-55.1).
The Boilermakers’ pointspread numbers are all over the map, as they’re on positive ATS runs of 4-1 as an underdog, 8-3 as a ‘dog at neutral venues, 7-3 when catching points in the Tournament and 4-1-1 on Friday. However, they’re also in ATS ruts of 2-6-1 overall, 2-5 versus the ACC, 1-5-1 after a SU victory, 6-13-1 after a spread-cover and 7-16-1 as an underdog of seven to 12½ points.
Duke has cashed in five of seven versus the Big Ten and six of eight on Friday, but prior to last weekend’s easy spread-covers against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Cal, the Devils had failed to cover in 10 of 12 Tournament games overall and 11 of 13 Tournament contests as a favorite.
Purdue has gone over the total in eight straight Friday contests and six of eight outside the Big Ten, while the Blue Devils have hurdled the total in five of seven against the Big Ten. After that, though, the Boilermakers are on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 6-0 versus the ACC, 5-1 after a SU win and 5-2 as an underdog, while Duke carries “under” trends of 5-1 overall (all as a favorite), 18-6 at neutral sites (all as a favorite), 8-3 in the Tournament, 12-4 when laying points in the Big Dance, 4-1 on Friday and 26-12 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
L.A. Lakers (53-18, 30-38-3 ATS) at Oklahoma City (43-27, 41-29 ATS)
The surging Lakers shoot for their eighth straight win as they trek to the Ford Center in Oklahoma City for a matchup with the Thunder.
Los Angeles opened a five-game road trip on Wednesday with a 92-83 win in San Antonio, cashing as a two-point underdog. The Lakers got 24 points and six assists from Kobe Bryant and the trio of Ron Artest, Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol combined for 45 points and a whopping 33 rebounds. L.A. has cashed in just four of its last 10 overall but it has covered four of its last five roadies.
Oklahoma City snapped a two-game losing streak on Wednesday with a 122-104 home win over the Rockets as an eight-point chalk. Kevin Durant, the NBA’s top scorer, had 25 points and Jeff Green added 19 points, five rebounds and five assists. The Thunder have averaged 105.2 points a game over their last five, five points better than what they’ve done the rest of the season.
The Lakers have won 12 straight over the Thunder, including three this season. Back in November, Los Angeles went to Oklahoma City and scored a 101-98 overtime win, but failed as a seven-point favorite.
Los Angeles has cashed in four of five on the road and four straight on the highway against teams with winning home records, but it is on ATS slides of 5-11-1 overall, 1-4 on Fridays, 0-5 after a spread-cover and 2-6-1 against Northwest Division squads. The Thunder are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 8-1 on Fridays, 5-1 against Western Conference teams, 13-5 against winning teams, 5-2 after a day off and 14-6 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
The Lakers bring in several “under” streaks, including 4-0 overall, 4-0 on Fridays, 4-0 after a straight-up win, 5-1 on the road, 10-2 against Western Conference teams, 7-3 after a day off and 13-3 on the road against teams with winning home records. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is on “over” runs of 5-1-1 overall, 6-2 against Pacific Division teams, 5-1 after a day off, 11-1 after a straight-up win, 7-1 after a spread-cover and 3-0-1 at home.
Finally, four of the last six Lakers-Thunder clashes have stayed under the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER
Cleveland (57-15, 36-35-1 ATS) at San Antonio (42-28, 36-33-1 ATS)
LeBron James and the red-hot Cavaliers take an eight-game winning streak into the AT&T Center for a matchup with the Spurs.
Cleveland dumped New Orleans 105-92 on Tuesday, winning its eighth in a row and easily cashing as a 5½-point chalk. James was unstoppable, scoring 38 points, pulling down six rebounds and delivering nine assists to lead the Cavs, who are still just 4-4 ATS during their current surge. Cleveland has been tough to beat on the road, going 26-11 this season, 21-15-1 ATS.
San Antonio has alternated wins and losses in its last six overall (3-3 ATS), losing at home Wednesday to the Lakers, 92-83 as a two-point favorite. Manu Ginobili had 24 points against Los Angeles, but the Spurs got nothing inside as Richard Jefferson, Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess combined for just 14 points. The Spurs had won six straight at home (5-1 ATS) before Wednesday’s loss to Los Angeles.
Cleveland has won three straight (2-1 ATS) and four of five (3-2 ATS) against San Antonio dating back to 2008. The Cavs scored a 97-95 home win back on March 8, but came up short as 5 ½-point favorites, as the road team improved to 4-1 ATS in the last five series clashes.
The Cavaliers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday contests, but they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 after a spread-cover. San Antonio is on positive ATS streaks of 10-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-1 after a non-cover and 4-1 after a straight-up loss.
For Cleveland, the under is on several streaks, including 4-0 overall, 11-3-1 on Fridays, 5-0 against Southwest Division teams and 7-3-1 against teams with winning records. The Spurs have topped the total in five of seven Friday contests and three of four after a non-cover, but they are on “under” runs of 11-5-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 7-3-1 against winning teams and 3-0-1 at home against teams with winning road marks.
In this series, the under has been the play in seven of the last 11 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
Utah at Indiana
The Jazz look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Utah is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has Utah favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Utah (-5)
Game 851-852: Minnesota at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 106.613; Orlando 128.419
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 22; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 14 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-14 1/2);
Game 853-854: Utah at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 126.016; Indiana 119.572
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 6 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 5; 210 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-5); Over
Game 855-856: Denver at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 118.842; Toronto 113.176
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 5 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 4 1/2; 217
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-4 1/2); Under
Game 857-858: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 122.086; Philadelphia 117.974
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 196
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 859-860: Washington at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 111.180; Charlotte 123.051
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 12; 179
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 10 1/2; 181
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-10 1/2); Under
Game 861-862: Sacramento at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 111.263; Boston 125.783
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 14 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 863-864: LA Lakers at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 121.558; Oklahoma City 121.138
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 204
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+1 1/2); Over
Game 865-866: Detroit at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 110.585; New Jersey 112.073
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-1); Over
Game 867-868: Miami at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.138; Milwaukee 126.345
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 8; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 4 1/2; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-4 1/2); Under
Game 869-870: Cleveland at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.287; San Antonio 124.999
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 200
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 871-872: New York at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: New York 116.399; Phoenix 127.916
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 11 1/2; 223
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 10 1/2; 224
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-10 1/2); Under
NCAAB
Tennessee vs. Ohio State
The Buckeyes look to take advantage of a Tennessee team that is 0-3-1 ATS in its last 4 neutral site games as an underdog. Ohio State is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Buckeyes favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-4 1/2)
Game 873-874: Northern Iowa vs. Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 68.950; Michigan State 70.494
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (+2)
Game 875-876: Tennessee vs. Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 69.386; Ohio State 74.523
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 5
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-4 1/2)
Game 877-878: St. Mary's (CA) vs. Baylor
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 65.631; Baylor 73.884
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Baylor by 4
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-4)
Game 879-880: Purdue vs. Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 68.089; Duke 77.558
Dunkel Line: Duke by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 8
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-8)
NHL
Minnesota at Detroit
The Wild look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 2-5 in its last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Minnesota is the pick (+220) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+220)
Game 1-2: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.251; Detroit 11.109
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-260); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+220); Under
Game 3-4: Ottawa at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 12.019; Buffalo 11.590
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+145); Over
Game 5-6: Anaheim at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.062; Edmonton 12.313
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
John Ryan
Tennessee at Ohio State
Prediction: Ohio State
3* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Tennessee in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Ohio State will win this game by more than 5 points. Ohio State matches up very well against UT and have done well against similar teams on an ATS basis. Note that OSU is a solid 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team winning between 60% to 80% of their games this season; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing shooting <=42% after 15+ games this season. Model also projects that OSU will shoot between 47 and 53%. Note that UT is just 1-5 ATS this season and 4-14 ATS over the past 3 seasons when allowing opponents to shoot within this range. Take the Buckeyes.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Utah Jazz at Indiana Pacers
We look for the Jazz to destroy the lowly Pacers here. Our side has been money in the bank this season when favored, going 32-15 ATS, including 8-1 when laying six or less on the road. Utah has also won four straight times vs. Indiana by an average of 12.5 points per game. This is clearly a case of playoff-bound team vs. lottery-bound team. Let's take advantage.
Play on: Utah
Craig Trapp
Northern Iowa vs. Michigan State
Play: Northern Iowa +1
What are the oddsmakers thinking?? MSU was never the same this year playing without Lucas going 0-3 straight up and ATS. This NIOWA team is a deeper more skilled team. Yes MSU is stronger and more athletic. Ask Kansas how good this NIOWA team is, they can score from inside and out, and can lock down on defense as good as any team left in the Tournament. For you bettors that like records then take a look at MSU 13-20 ATS record compared to NIOWA 22-11 ATS. Really don't think this one will be quite as close as people think, only Izzo's great coaching keeps this one under 10. Late NIOWA very skilled offense will knock down some key threes and win by 7!
Marc Lawrence
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Miami Heat
The Heat meets the Bucks with triple revenge on their minds from a trio of losses they've suffered this season against Milwaukee. That sets the table for the fray at Miami enters the game with a solid 21-12-1 ATS ledger on this floor. They are also 11-6 SU and 11-5-1 ATS when playing with same season triple revenge against an opponent off a loss, including 8-2 ATS when taking points. With added value in the play with the Heat off a road game at Chicago last night, look for the points to become the play here this evening.
BIG AL
Detroit @ New Jersey
PICK: Detroit +1.5
With KiKi Vandeweghe's men closing in (possibly) on the worst season record in NBA history, it's awfully hard to back them as a favorite even against this dreadful Detroit Piston club. New Jersey did win its last game, 93-79 vs Sacramento, but dating back 20 years, NBA teams with a win percentage less than .300 off a win in the last 24 games of the season, are a poor 56-112 (33% ATS) at home. Take the Pistons on Friday night.
JIM FEIST
LOS ANGELES LAKERS / OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
TAKE: LOS ANGELES LAKERS
The Lakers are 3-0 against Oklahoma City this season, winning by 3, 16 and 3 points. They had their game face on to start this road trip, winning at San Antonio as a dog, playing great defense. Oklahoma City has been overvalued by oddsmakers, on a 2-3 SU/ATS run, losing all three games as a favorite. They don't have anyone to play defense on Kobe Bryant and can be vulnerable to teams with big frontcourts. Oklahoma City has allowed 101, 101 and 111 points in three games to the Lakers. Play the LA Lakers.
James Patrick Sports
Purdue vs. Duke
The Blue Devils are playing the best defense in the NCAA Tournament to date allowing just (48) points per game and since Boilermaker star Robbie Hummel's injury Purdue is averaging just (60.9) points per game. Big Game James Patrick's selection in Friday NCAA Tournament action is Purdue - Duke Under the Total in Sweet Sixteen action.
Cajun Sports
Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers
Selection: Utah Jazz -5
The Jazz were able to put an end to a three-game road losing skid when they defeated Toronto on Wednesday night north of the border 113 to 87 and cashed for us as another complimentary selection winner. Utah is battling with the Phoenix Suns for home court in the first round of the playoffs so they need to take advantage of every single opportunity. The Pacers provide the Jazz with one of those much needed opportunities as they have won four straight in this series covering the spread in three of those affairs. Indiana shoots only forty-four percent from the field and that puts them very near the bottom of the league in that department while Utah is the league’s best shooting team. The reason for much of Utah’s success against the Pacers has been the fact they provide matchup difficulties and it doesn’t appear that Indiana has solved the riddle. With that in mind we will once again back the Jazz as they roll past an overmatched Pacers squad on Friday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Utah Jazz 106 Indiana Pacers 94
Tom Freese
Northern Iowa vs. Michigan St
Michigan St is 26-8 this year. They took a bad hit when guard Kalin Lucas tore his Achillies. Forward Raymar scores 11.6 points a game. Guard Durrell Summers scores 10.7 points a game. Forward Draymond Green scores 9.8 points and 8.1 rebounds a game. Guard Chris Allen scores 8.6 points a game. The Spartans scores 72.9 points a game. Michigan St is 2-8 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 2-7 ATS their last 9 games vs. team with a win percentage of over 60%. Northern Iowa is 30-4 this year. Center Jordan Eglseder scores 12 points and 7.3 rebounds a game. Forward Adam Koch scores 11.6 points a game while shooting 35% from behind the arc. Guard Kwadzo Ahelebge scores 10.6 points a game. Guard Ali Farokhmanesh scores 9.7 while shooting 38% from behind the arc. The Panthers score 63.6 points a game. Northern Iowa is 7-0 ATS their last 7 Non- Conference games and they are 54-24 ATS their last 78 games as underdogs. PLAY ON NORTHERN IOWA +
EZWINNERS
Tennessee Volunteers +4.5
I like the depth of Tennessee to wear down the Buckeyes in this match up. The Vols have a very well balanced front line, as there are seven Tennessee players that are scoring at least five points per game. The Buckeyes rely heavily on their starting five. Gaurds David Lightly, Jon Diebler, and Evan Turner combined to score 62 points in the Buckeyes’ 75 points in their win over Georgia Tech on Sunday. Tennessee has used its depth to win games in this tournament and I expect that depth to pay off for them once again. The Vols have a lot of very athletic players on their team and I expect them to do a good job on player of the year candidate Evan Turner who scores 25% of Ohio State points. This one should come down to the wire and Tennessee is 22-9-1 against the spread in their last thirty two games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Utah –5½ over INDIANA
The best time to play against a team is when its stock is high and the Pacers stock is at its highest point of the season after they beat the Wizards on Wednesday to extend its current run to five wins in six games. Indiana’s only loss over that stretch came against the Cav’s and over that span they also have a 20-point win over the Thunder. However, they’re now going to face a team that has made bad Eastern teams look like they don’t belong on the same planet with them. The Jazz come to play and they come to play every single night. No team is as well prepared night in and night out as Jerry Sloan and the Jazz. Utah is coming off a game against the sinking Raps in which they looked like they were playing a scrimmage. It was basically a practice for the Jazz, that’s how bad they made Toronto look. The Jazz, too, has won five of six but the difference is they’re a great team while the Pacers are not even close. Indiana’s defense is a complete disaster and the Jazz will exploit that all night. Furthermore, Utah is not only winning but its last five wins were by margins of 26, 13, 20, 22, and 23. That 13-point win in that group was over the Celtics. This one should be no different. Play: Utah –5½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Miami +4½/+1.62 over MILWAUKEE
The Heat barely broke a sweat last night in a complete romp over the Bulls that was basically over at halftime. They used up very little energy so playing back-to-backs here is not a big deal. The Heat held the Bulls to 74 lousy points last night and they held the Bobcats to 71 last Friday. Playoffs are fast approaching and the Heats terrific defense could take them a long way. Now they’ll play the red-hot Bucks, a team that continues to win but signs are pointing to an end to that. They were very fortunate to beat the Hawks on Monday, as they trailed throughout and they followed that up with a home-loss to the 76ers. The Bucks last six have all been extremely close and in fact, they could’ve went winless over that stretch. They beat the Kings in OT, they beat the Pacers by four, they beat Denver by five, they beat Atlanta by three and they lost to both the Clip Joint and the 76ers. They’re slowly but but definitely surely cooling off while Miami is heating up big time. Play: Miami +4½ (Risking 1.05 units to win 1) Play Miami +1.62 (Risking 1 unit).
Northern Iowa –1.02 over Michigan St.
The Spartans have overcome adversity before and as far as preparation goes, not many can argue that Tom Izzo is the master of that trait. His Spartans always have a strong game plan and they usually execute it well. MSU also has a strong pedigree but this is by far its biggest challenge of the event and they might not have the horses to pull this one out. The Spartans barely squeezed by New Mexico State (70-67) and needed a miraculous shot to overcome Maryland (85-83). They lost Kalin Lucas in that game and although they hung on, his absence will absolutely be felt here. Furthermore, both Chris Allen and Delvin Roe are not near 100% and both could see limited time in this one. In order for the Spartans to pull this one out they’re going to have to be near flawless and even then, they still could lose. The Spartans are a poor, free throw shooting team and in this tournament that’s a killer. These Panthers from Northern Iowa are the real deal; make no mistake about that. Its win over #1 Kansas was no fluke at all. They have everything it takes to win it all and they have far too much for the undermanned and banged up Spartans. The Panthers have a great defense and could be considered one of, if not the best in the country. They get outstanding play from its point guard, Ali Farokhmanesh, one of the hottest shooters in the tourney. They have a big man in the middle that can not only scoop up everything and make life miserable for the opposition but he can also block shots and can score points. The Panthers three-point shooters are all very warm at the moment as well and most importantly the Panthers are soaring with confidence. The Panthers get closer every year but this is the year they take the next step and after beating Kansas, they’re not taking a step up in class and should they get off to a good start they may just bury this beatable foe. Play: Northern Iowa –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Nelly
Indiana + over Utah
Few are paying attention but the Pacers have been an incredibly profitable team of late, covering in ten of the last eleven games. Indiana has won four consecutive games S/U and after a season marred with injuries the Pacers are starting to reach the potential they have. The playoffs are not a possibility for this team but that does not mean that the Pacers can't play spoiler and be a tough out the rest of the way. Indiana is 20-games below .500 but this is a winning team at home and there have now been six consecutive home wins for Indiana. Utah won the only other meeting this season but the Jazz have been a suspect road performer. The Jazz are playing a second straight road game and Utah has endured a challenging schedule of late. The big difference for the Pacers has come on defense, allowing just 93 points per game over the last five contests, down from a season average of 104 points per game. Indiana still has a potent offense led by Danny Granger and this looks like a serious upset possibility.
THE PREZ
Minnesota Wild vs Detroit Red Wings
The Over may be 3-0 in the three head-to-head meetings between the Minnesota Wild and the Detroit Red Wings this season, but we expect a different type of game this time around.
The Red Wings are 6-1 in their last seven games, as they are finally making their playoff push after being in danger of missing the post-season for the first time in over a decade. This turnaround has been sparked by an improved defense that has seen the Wings allow three goals or less in each of those last seven games, and in the lone loss, Detroit really only allowed two goals through regulation time and overtime before losing in a shootout.
It is fairly apparent right now that there will be no post-season for the Wild this year, and part of the reason is their inability to score on the road, where that are averaging a pathetic 2.14 goals per game for the entire season. As you might expect, the Under is 19-17 in Minnesota road games this year, a far cry from the 22-14 mark for the Over when the Wild play at home.
Finally, Minnesota played at Philadelphia last night, and the Under is 8-4, 66.7 percent when the Wild have played with no rest this season.
Pick: Wild/Red Wings Under 5.5