LT PROFITS
St. Mary's vs Baylor
The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 St. Mary's Gaels games overall, and we look for that pattern to continue tonight vs. a Baylor Bears team that has the best defense that the Gaels have seen in quite some time.
After all, remember that St. Mary's comes out of a West Coast Conference where defense is generally an afterthought, and their two NCAA Tournament wins have come vs. a mediocre Richmond team and a Villanova team that plays at a fast pace. And yet the Gaels have had their remarkable Under run in spite of all that, and all of their road games are averaging a combined 145.1 points this season.
We feel that it is safe to shave points off of that season average here as Baylor presents a toughness that the Gaels are not accustomed to. After all, the Bears are ranked fifth in the country in defensive efficiency according to the Pomeroy Ratings, allowing only .871 points per possession.
Baylor is surrendering just 66.4 points per game on a miniscule 38.8 percent shooting in all games vs. Division I schools this season, and remember that the play in a Big 12 Conference that has some high-powered offenses such as Kansas, Kansas State and Texas, all ranked in the top 25 nationally in offensive efficiency by Pomeroy. Sure, St. Mary's ranks sixth in the land in effective field goal percentage, but again, consider the defenses that thay have faced all year.
We look for Baylor to slow down the St. Mary's offense probably better than any other team has done all year, and the end result should be a safe Under here.
Pick: St. Mary's/Baylor Under 142
Wunderdog Sports
Sacramento Kings vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Sacramento Kings +12
The Sacramento Kings have played well at home. And looking at the ledger, it may appear that they are a horrible road team with only seven road wins on the season. That is true from a win/loss perspective but not ATS. Put this team on the road taking double-digits and they are 8-1 ATS this season, with the lone loss occurring all the way back in October! The Celtics are just the opposite as they have gotten crushed as double-digit chalk, with the last win coming before Christmas, and are 0-6 ATS since as a chalk of 10+. I'll go with Sacramento here.
LARRY NESS
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
PICK: Atlanta -5
Atlanta has clinched its third consecutive postseason trip but remains in a dog fight with the Celtics (both are 46-25) for the third-seed in the East. The team which gets the No. 3 seed would avoid a second round matchup with the Cavs and what team wouldn't want to avoid that? As for the 76ers, the team is a woeful 5-14 SU since the All Star break, including a 2-8 home mark (one win coming vs the Nets). Williams (14.4-3.1-4.0) is doubtful with a back injury and forward Young (13.8-5.2) questionable with a thumb injury. Crawford (17.8) has been a HUGE addition for the hHwks this year, joining the team's already very talented starting-five of guards Johnson (21.4-4.7-4.8) and Bibby (9.0-4.0 APG) plus frontcourt players Smith (15.7-8.7-4.3), Horford (14.2-9.7) and Williams (10.2-5.3). The Hawks are just a mediocre road team but the 76ers have "packed it in." Lay it with Atlanta.
TEDDY COVERS
Tennessee @ Ohio State
PICK: Tennessee +4.5
Ohio State and Tennessee met here in the Sweet 16 three years ago. The Vols raced out to a 17 point halftime lead, but they let it slip away, eventually losing to the Buckeyes by a single point. Vols head coach Bruce Pearl has seen his team reach the Sweet 16 three times in the last four years, but they’ve yet to win a game on the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. These are two legitimate motivating factors for the underdog tonight.
Tennessee also has some matchup edges against the Buckeyes. Tennessee is the much deeper team. Bruce Pearl routinely uses five players off his bench. Meanwhile, Thad Matta played Evan Turner, Will Buford and Jon Diebler for the full 40 minutes against Georgia Tech last Sunday, getting a grand total of 13 minutes, 0 points, 0 assists and 2 rebounds from his bench. In a tight, tense, uptempo game, against a defense that likes to press, don’t be shocked if the Buckeyes run out of gas at some point down the stretch.
Tennessee has other edges here as well. The Vols are playing tremendous defense; holding foes to 39 percent shooting for the season; 29 percent from beyond the arc, while forcing more than 16 turnovers per game. Those are all better statistical numbers than Ohio State brings to the table. The deeper underdog is also the better defensive team.
Ohio State does have the best player on the court, lottery bound Evan Turner. But they aren’t big enough in the paint to take advantage of the Vols relative lack of size. They aren’t deep enough to wear down Tennessee. And, with signature wins against the likes of Kansas and Kentucky from the Vols already this year, there’s certainly no class difference between these two squads. Expect a tight game, right through the final buzzer. 2* Take Tennessee.
Black Widow
1* on Denver Nuggets -5
Off three straight losses, there's no question the Denver Nuggets are going to bring their "A" game to the floor tonight in Toronto. The Raptors are just 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. The Raptors have been crushed in their last 2 home games against excellent shooting teams, losing to Oklahoma City by 26 and to Utah by 26 as well. Denver is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. They usually respond with a great defensive effort after a string of bad defensive play. Toronto is 2-17 ATS (-16.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. The Raptors are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against Northwest division opponents this season. The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Toronto, winning each time by 7 or more points. Take the Nuggets and lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -5
I expect a big letdown from the 76ers here after such a big win over the Bucks. While you could argue that the Hawks are primed for a letdown as well after a big buzzer-beater win against the Magic, I just don't see it happening. Atlanta is still playing for the No. 3 seed in the East, and that should provide plenty of incentive to get up for this one. Philly is just 10-25 ATS at home this season, 6-24-2 ATS in its last 32 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS win. Take the Hawks as they improve to 7-1 ATS in their last 8.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Northern Iowa/Michigan State UNDER 122
System Play: Plays Under on neutral court teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, against an opponent that has gone over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, are 30-6 since 1997, including a perfect 1-0 this season. We are only seeing an average of 116.2 points scored in this situation. Expect an ugly defensive battle to result in the under tonight.
Info Plays
3* on Detroit Pistons +1.5
Reasons why the Pistons cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Any team (DETROIT) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest. This is a 40-13 ATS System hitting 75.5% over the last 5 seasons. How can an 8-63 Nets' team actually be favored in any game this season? The Pistons do not want to let New Jersey get their ninth win of the season tonight and they won't allow it to take place on their watch. Detroit has won 7 of their last 9 meetings with the Nets, including both meetings this season. Bet Detroit on the road.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Tennessee/Ohio State UNDER 134
Expect both of these teams to really get after it on the defensive end tonight to keep this one under the number. Tennessee played to the Under in 5 straight games before shooting a ridiculous 56.7% from the floor last game to go Over the total. Recent history tells us not to expect another shooting performance like that from Tennessee as it is 8-0 Under after a game where it made 55% of its shots or better over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee is a relentless defensive teams, and has especially proven to be so when well rested. In fact, the Vols are a 10-2 Under run when playing away from home on 5 or 6 days rest. Tennessee was 20-8 Under in all lined games this season and 13-3 Under as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Tennessee is a good defensive team that often doesn't shoot very well from the field. In fact, it has shot below 40% in 4 of its last 5 games. Sounds like a good Unders situation to me.
Jack Jones
St. Mary's +5
The Gaels have the guards and the big man to match-up very well with Baylor in this one. Omar Samhan down low is leading all scorers in the NCAA Tournament, scoring over 30 PPG on 24-32 shooting from the field. He is an unstoppable force in the paint. The Gaels are making their outside shots as well which is an excellent compliment to Samhan. St. Mary's is shooting lights out in postseason tournament games, hitting 49% of their shots or better for four straight contests.
This is also a team that takes care of the ball behind tremendous guard play. Baylor is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games vs. excellent ball handling teams, committing 12 or less turnovers/game. On that same line, St. Mary's is 16-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Baylor is not a team that forces a lot of turnovers, and St. Mary's thrives against these teams and have all season. The Gaels are a superb 14-2 ATS in non-conference games this season. Take St. Mary's.
Scott Spreitzer
Northern Iowa v. Michigan State
Pick: Under
If ultra-athletic UNLV and top-ranked Kansas could not get Northern Iowa to stray from their deliberate game plan, it's hard to imagine Michigan State will be able to do so without the services of Kalin Lucas. No doubt Tom Izzo will still try to quicken the tempo with Korie Lucious taking over at the point. After all, he can't afford to let UNI run their style of play, or MSU will be back in East Lansing by Saturday morning. But when teams have tried to run against the Panthers, it has led to turnover after turnover. Even Kansas lost the handle 15 times last weekend. UNI has the unique ability to shut off the paint with an outstanding zone on the defensive end, yet still put endless pressure on the ball handler. Coach Ben Jacobson diagrams the team's offensive sets and plays for the entire first half. The team doesn't look to run. They're incredibly disciplined, and will force their game on MSU. UNI possessions on the offensive end will go deep into the shot-clock. At the same time, when UNI misses, they're not likely to get many second chances. MSU crushed Maryland, 42-24 on the glass last weekend, and they rank 3rd in the nation in rebounds per game allowed, at 26.1. Both teams are outstanding on the defensive end, and I believe we received nice value on the Under thanks to MSU's 85-83 win over the Terps, and also with UNI's first two tourney games topping 130 points. Northern Iowa's neutral court tilts have played to the Under 20 of the last 27 times. They're also 6-0 to the Under as a dog (+1 at the time of this release). I believe we're in for a deliberate, well played defensive tilt, and I'm playing the Under on Friday.
Sac Lawson
Michigan St. / Northern Iowa Under 122
Not too often would I recommend going against such a blatant line move, but I feel like this two point raise in the total was 100% driven by public money. Fact is, not many people can picture a Sweet 16 game played in the 50's. People associate good basketball with high scoring, and that's nothing but a false perception. Fact is, both of these teams win games with defense, and by finding the best shot possible on each possession. MSU has played some decent scoring games of late, and there's no doubt they're fully capable of running with the faster paced teams in the nation. But they're also a team that has deep defensive roots, and they'll return to that facing a snails-paced UNI team.
I'd be an idiot if I didn't mention, or admit, that the MSU injuries play a roll in this bet. Numerous times on the Pregame Forums we've talked about the "injured star theory." This theory definitely holds weight, and the specific reason why is because the team with the injuries pumps up the defensive intensity. When you're without two top scorers.. Yes, Two. Lucas is not the only guy out for MSU, Chris Allen is out as well (I'm not sure people remember that).. Anyways, being without two scorers leaves tons of pressure on a team. The easiest way to coach/play through this is not to put the added offensive pressure on your guys, it's to transfer the focus to defense. It's unrealistic to tell guys that score 5 or 6 a game to now put up 15-20. But it's fully realistic to tell a guy that he'll have to make up for that 10 point loss by holding the guy he's guarding to fewer buckets. You need skill to play offense, you only need heart to play defense.
I have no doubts that Michigan St. transfers some of their focus to the defensive end tonight, and I also have no doubts that they'll struggle late in the shot clock to find guys willing to penetrate and create as Lucas does so well. Obviously if they shoot threes like they did the other night, we're in trouble. But I fully expect UNI's tempo to be the name of the game tonight, and if that's the case.. these teams will be in the 50's. Take the UNDER for 1 unit!
Scott Delaney
Purdue vs. Duke, at Houston
The Blue Devils have been playing great defense, giving up just 97 points in easy wins over Arkansas-Pine Bluff and California in the first two rounds.
And though neither of those opponents might compare to Purdue's gritty and aggressive defensive tactics, I don't believe the Boilers have what it takes to challenge the Blue Devils outside of JaJuan Johnson.
Duke was probably the quietest and most underrated No. 1 seed this year, and was the most under-the-radar Blue Devils entry in quite some time.
We all know about Jon Scheyer, who averages 18.1 points per game, and Kyle Singer, who contributes with 17.7; but there's also junior guard Nolan Smith, whose 17.2 per game ranked sixth in the ACC.
Three players - all more than 17 points.
Overall, this might be Coach K's best team in about six years, and I think the Devils have plans of making it to the title game.
Purdue is mired in ATS slides of 6-14 after an ATS cover, 7-17 when catching points in this range, 2-5 versus ACC teams, 1-6 off a straight-up win and 2-7 overall. On the other hand, Duke has covered six of its last eight on Friday nights and five of its last seven against Big 10 teams.
Lay it.
4♦ DUKE
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the OKC Thunder. It's just another one of those gut feelings I have. Obviously by their records the Lakers are a better team than the Thunder, but it's not by as big a margin as you might think. OKC is head and shoulders better than they were a year ago and they are clearly more youthful than the Lakers, so I have no doubts they can run with L.A. for the entire 48 minutes. The Thunder just got done disposing of Houston by double digits the other night and they have some unfinished business to take care of with the Lakers tonight. The last time L.A. came to Oklahoma City, the young Thunder (who still weren't being taken seriously) took the Lakers to overtime and missed a three-pointer that would have sent the game to double OT. In their two trips to Los Angeles the Thunder lost by 16 the first time but only by 3 in their next meeting. Still in the playoff hunt, the Thunder know this game means a lot more to them than it does Los Angeles, and they're playing with triple-revenge on their minds. The crowd will be large and loud at the Ford Center tonight. I like OKC in the SU win.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Michael Cannon
St. Mary's vs. Baylor (-4'), at Houston, TX
Take Baylor over St. Mary’s.
The Bears have a big advantage inside and that’s going to be a problem for St. Mary’s.
The Gaels have gotten great production from center Omar Samhan in the first two rounds, but he’s going to have a difficult time making a difference tonight. Baylor has one of the biggest frontcourts in the nation with 6-10 Ekpe Udoh, 7-0 Josh Lomers and 6-10 Anthony Jones.
Those three will make Samhan work on both ends of the court and I see them wearing down the Gaels’ big man.
Baylor also possesses a deadly backcourt combination in LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter. Those two combined for 38 points in the Bears win over Old Dominion.
Take Baylor minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ BAYLOR