Chuck O'Brien
Purdue vs. Duke (-8'), at Houston
Take Duke and lay the points against Purdue in Friday’s Sweet 16 action in the Big Dance.
Credit to the Boilermakers for gutting out two victories last weekend over Siena and Texas A&M (in overtime). But this is the game where the absence of star forward Robbie Hummel will lead to Purdue’s downfall. Duke’s the type of team you simply cannot beat without all your bullets in the chamber. The Blue Devils can beat you inside and outside, they can succeed in a track meet, and they’re much more physical than past Duke squads.
Outside of maybe Kentucky, Duke was more impressive than any team in the opening weekend of the Big Dance, including dismantling Cal 68-53 on Sunday. Cal had entered that contest on a 10-2 SU and ATS run, and it had scored at least 71 points in five straight games (including a 77-62 rout of Louisville). But against the Blue Devils’ stifling defense, the Bears shot 39.6% overall, going 3-for-12 from three-point range.
That was the ninth time in the last 13 games that Duke held an opponent to 56 points or fewer. That’s significant since Purdue has been held to 64 points or less in six of eight games since Hummel went down (including games of 59, 44 and 42 points).s
Speaking of Hummel, last year when these teams met on Purdue’s campus, Hummel had 15 points and eight rebounds … and the Boilermakers got drilled 76-60. Now without Hummel, they’re facing Duke on a neutral court – and Duke’s much better than it was 15 months ago when it won by 16 in West Lafayette, Ind. Finally, of the Blue Devils’ 31 wins this season, 24 have been by double digits.
5♦ DUKE
Chris Jordan
Purdue vs. Duke (-8'), at Houston
Has everyone forgotten about the Duke Blue Devils?
That's a shame.
But from my understanding, their press conference yesterday was the least attended; instead everyone is more interested in Baylor's stunning run, and St. Mary's improbable run.
For me, if you saw my bracket at the beginning of this tournament, Duke was my choice as National Champion. And I'm not shying away from the Devils, and I think they're going to have a relatively easy time against the Boilers.
Purdue doesn't have the offense Duke does, particularly without Robbie Hummel, and it won't be able to keep up come the second half.
The biggest motivating factor for the Devils had to of come last night, when Kentucky roared to an easy win over Cornell. I think Duke will feed off of that and look to duplicate the feat with a blowout of its own.
Lay the chalk.
2♦ DUKE
Derek Mancini
Purdue (+8') vs Duke at Houston, TX
5-1 L6 Free Play releases! Going against the grain tonight, as there's just too much public love for Duke in this spot. The value got sucked out of this game the instant the Blue Devils routed the Golden Bears Sunday, and with literally everyone riding Duke, there's no way I lay this many points Friday.
Defense. That's the name of the game for the Boilermakers, as they'll slow down the pace, and count on their defense to keep this game close. Its the same formula they've used this postseason with a lot of success... Gamblers swore the Boilermakers would lose to Siena, and still they won and covered. Gamblers also swore they'd lose to Texas A&M, and this time Purdue got the outright win and cover... When are you gonna learn to stop fading Purdue based soley on the Hummel injury?
Duke is a very good team, but they enjoyed a favorable match up versus Cal. No such luck tonight, as Moore, Johnson, and Kramer match up particularly well with their Blue Devil counterparts. Of course, having Hummel to guard Singler would be ideal, but there's enough defenders on this Purdue roster that coach Painter can mix and match, and stick with what works best. Grab the points with Purdue, as this Boilermakers team is a lot more than just Robbie Hummel, and they'll be out to prove that tonight.
3♦ PURDUE
Karl Garrett
Atlanta (-5) at PHILADELPHIA
How in the world did the 76ers win at Milwaukee on Wednesday? Not only win, but dominate a red-hot Bucks team!?!?!
No sense in trying to figure it out, just know that the Sixers are still a lowly 4-10 against the spread their last 14 games, and an awful 17-35 their last 52 at home.
Atlanta has been money against the Atlantic Division, and against Philly in particular, as the Hawks are 14-3 against the spread their last 17 versus the Atlantic, and they are also 2-0 both straight up and against the spread versus Philadelphia this year.
Overall, the Hawks are on a 7-3-1 series spread run the last 11 series meetings.
Have to lay it with Atlanta this Friday night in the City of Brotherly Love.
4♦ ATLANTA
Stephen Nover
Sacramento at BOSTON
The Boston Celtics are caught in a sandwich spot in this home matchup against Sacramento.
The Celtics are off an impressive 113-99 home victory against Denver on Wednesday. The Celtics host San Antonio in a big ESPN matchup on Sunday night.
In between is this game against the lowly Kings. The Celtics can't help but look ahead to the Spurs, especially after the Kings lost 93-79 on the road to New Jersey this past Wednesday. The Kings posted a season-low in points, shot just 35.8 percent from the field and turned the ball over 15 times.
It's tough to cover a huge pointspread in the NBA without playing your "A" game. It's especially tough to do so when you don't have your "A" game and are not interested in blowing out your opponent. Celtics coach Doc Rivers is more concerned with cutting down his veteran starter's minutes and working new players, such as Michael Finley, into the reserve rotation.
The Kings have been without their best player, guard Tyreke Evans, this week. He's been out since last Friday after suffering a slight concussion, chipped teeth, bruised jaw and gum lacerations after taking an elbow from Milwaukee's Ersan Ilyasova.
Evens, though, is expected back for this game. Even if Evans doesn't play, the Kings still have an underrated backcourt of point guard Beno Udrih and Francisco Garcia. Garcia missed the first 52 games because of a broken wrist and forearm. He's had more of an opportunity now to get the rust off with Evans out.
The Celtics have not been a good home team, going 8-20-1 ATS in their past 29 home contests.
The Kings have proven spunky when taking on strong teams away from Arco Arena. That, along with generous pointspreads, are key factors why they've covered the past five times as a visitor when meeting a foe with a winning home record.
5♦ KINGS
Bobby Maxwell
Cleveland (pk) at SAN ANTONIO
I'm on a huge 73-46-3 run with my FREE plays and tonight I'm delivering on the NBA hardwood as I play the Cavaliers on the road in San Antonio against the Spurs.
How good have the Cavaliers looked lately, just beating up every opponent that steps on the court? Now Cleveland takes its eight-game winning streak into San Antonio to face a Spurs team that was a little exposed in their Wednesday loss to the Lakers.
San Antonio lost 92-83 to Los Angeles and while Manu Ginobili delivered his normal strong game with 24 points, he was the only one who played decent. The trio of Richard Jefferson, Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess did absolutely nothing inside for the Spurs, finishing with a combined 14 points.
Cleveland was in New Orleans on Wednesday, winning 105-92 as a 5 ½-point favorite. LeBron James looked spectacular, pouring in 38 points, grabbing six rebounds and dishing out nine assists. He got his big man back in Zadrunas Ilgauskas who the Cavs re-signed after trading him away. He will deliver nicely with Shaq on the sideline with his thumb injury.
Cleveland has won three straight over the Spurs (2-1 ATS) and won four of five overall. They have cashed in four of the last six and last year they went to San Antonio and scored a 97-86 win as a four-point favorite.
The Cavs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 after a spread-cover and they will come in here tonight and take this one from the Spurs. Play the road team, who is 4-1 ATS in the last five series clashes, tonight.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Brett Atkins
I'm right back on the pro hardwood tonight with a free winner on the Cavaliers as they march into San Antonio to take on the Spurs.
Cleveland has won eight straight and looked fantastic in New Orleans on Wednesday as LeBron James poured in 38 points, grabbed six boards and handed out nine assists.
San Antonio couldn't get anything right in the fourth quarter of their loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, falling 92-83 as a two-point favorite. Only Manu Ginobili showed up for that one as the Spurs got nothing inside.
The Cavs have beaten the Spurs three straight times, including a 97-86 win in San Antonio last year as a four-point underdog. Cleveland has covered the number in 10 of their last 14 after a spread-cover and they'll get it done against the Spurs in this one.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Michael Cannon
Take Baylor over St. Mary’s.
The Bears have a big advantage inside and that’s going to be a problem for St. Mary’s.
The Gaels have gotten great production from center Omar Samhan in the first two rounds, but he’s going to have a difficult time making a difference tonight. Baylor has one of the biggest frontcourts in the nation with 6-10 Ekpe Udoh, 7-0 Josh Lomers and 6-10 Anthony Jones.
Those three will make Samhan work on both ends of the court and I see them wearing down the Gaels’ big man.
Baylor also possesses a deadly backcourt combination in LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter. Those two combined for 38 points in the Bears win over Old Dominion.
Take Baylor minus the points as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ BAYLOR
Jay McNeil
L.A. Lakers at Oklahoma City
I know Kevin Durant is coming into his own, and has emerged as an outside MVP candidate, but he's no Kobe Bryant. And the four-time NBA champion and 12-time All-Star will make sure young Durant knows this tonight.
Bryant has outscored Durant in all three meetings this season, which is good news for this road game, since the Lakers are on a roll right now, having won seven straight overall, not to mention 12 in a row against this franchise.
Kobe generally has a big game against the Thunder, averaging 34.1 points per game in Los Angeles' 12 consecutive wins over the franchise, including a game-high 40 on Dec. 22.
The Lakers appear to be peaking at the right time, as there are 11 games left in the campaign with the Western Conference's No. 1 seed, the coveted No. 1 overall seed, still in question.
I'd give you some betting numbers related to this game, but based on the line, I only need pick the winner. And from what I can see, the team to beat is Los Angeles.
2♦ LAKERS
Joel Tyson
I am feeling that Duke's easy wins over Arkansas Pine-Bluff, and Cal have the price on tonight's game against Purdue just a little inflated.
Sure, if Robbie Hummel were in the Boilers lineup, this game could be closer to a pick'em, but the reality is Matt Painter's team has looked tough in wins over Siena, and Texas A&M, and I think they are going to be tough once again tonight.
Prior to the start of this tournament, Duke had gone just 2-5 against the spread their final 7 games of the season, failing 3 straight when laying points.
Gonna grab the points in this one, and look for the Boilermakers to stay close.
1♦ PURDUE
Matt Rivers
Take Michigan State for your Friday free winner.
You just can’t say enough about the job Tom Izzo does with the Spartans. They constantly overcome obstacles and rise up to the occasion.
How else do you explain eight Sweet 16’s, five Final Fours and two title games under Izzo?
I understand Northern Iowa has had a great run so far. Who out there had them knocking off Kansas in their bracket?
But the Spartans are going to rise to the occasion here. Michigan State kills its opponents on the boards and if Northern Iowa isn’t hitting all its 3’s then they aren’t going to get any second-chance points.
Take Michigan State as they get it done over Northern Iowa.
3♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Jeff Benton
That’s six straight free-play winners as Butler (6♦) upset Syracuse in the Sweet 16 on Thursday. So in addition to nailing the last six in a row, I’m now on runs of 45-22-2, 35-16-2 and 26-12-2 with plays that I’m giving away!
Let’s make it seven in a row Friday by playing Michigan State in a virtual pick-em spot against Northern Iowa. Not surprised that everybody and their mother is jumping on the darling Panthers, since they just knocked off the No. 1 seed in the entire Big Dance while the Spartans lost their top player in point guard Kalin Lucas (he suffered a season-ending injury in Sunday’s frantic buzzer-beating win over Maryland).
But the fact the general public LOVES the Panthers and running away from the Spartans is reason enough to take a shot with Michigan State. After all, there’s no question the Spartans are the deeper and more athletic squad. There’s also no question they’re more experienced to deal with the pressures of a Sweet 16 game – this is their second straight trip to the Sweet 16 (they beat Kansas last year on the way to the national title game). And going back to 1999, Michigan State is a perfect 6-0 in the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, prior to last weekend, Northern Iowa had just one Tournament win in school history, and that was back in 1990.
I love the fact Tom Izzo, as good a coach as there is in the game, has had several days to not only prepare FOR Northern Iowa, but prepare for Northern Iowa WITHOUT Lucas. He’s a master at covering up his team’s flaws – and his 6-0 Sweet 16 record proves he’s dangerous when given this much time to devise a game plan.
Bottom line: Northern Iowa’s upset of Kansas will go down as one of the biggest in Big Dance history. But that doesn’t mean they’re a lock to beat a more talented, more experienced team tonight. Plus, don’t forget the Panthers nearly didn’t get that opportunity to stun Kansas, as they needed a long three-pointer in the waning seconds to beat UNLV in the first round.
5♦ MICHIGAN STATE