Jesse Schule
UCLA vs. Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga -8½
According to Bookmakers, the UCLA Bruins are the least likely of the remaining teams to win the NCAA Tournament. You can still get the Bruins at 100-1 odds at Westgate Superbook. The Bruins were very lucky to have even qualified for the tournament, and many experts were critical of the committee for selecting them. UCLA came into the tournament with a 2-8 record versus the RPI Top 50, and 4-11 away from Pauley Pavilion. If you look at the Bruin's schedule, the most impressive thing they've done is lose to Arizona. Some might say they finished the season strong by winning four of five prior to the tourney, but it's worth pointing out that all four of those wins came against bottom feeders of the Pac-12. They beat Washington and Washington State, and USC twice. The Trojans finished dead last in the conference with a record of 3-15.
After being gifted a one-point victory on a controversial goaltend call in their first round match versus SMU, they got a lucky draw against minnows UAB in the second round. I think their luck is going to run out here in the Sweet 16 against Gonzaga, a team with a lot to prove. Perhaps the fact that the Bulldogs have a history of early exits has contributed to why the line in this game is still in single digits. This year's team is even stronger than it was in past season's though, as evidenced by their 87-68 win over a very solid Iowa team in the second round. The two teams that eliminated Gonzaga in the last two years have each gone on to the Final Four (Wichita State and Arizona). UCLA doesn't come anywhere near either of those teams in terms of talent. When these teams met during the regular season, the Bruins lost to Gonzaga by 13 points on their home court. I see no reason why they should expect a better result here in Houston.
Tony George
UCLA vs. Gonzaga
Play: UCLA +8.5
No Cinderella this year in March Madness, but UCLA remains the highest seed in this tourney (#11) and Vegas oddsmakers know they are going to get a ton of action on the Zags here and have inflated this line to take advantage of that, and also the fact these are west coast teams which also attract attention at the counter in Vegas money-wise. Vegas opened with Gonzaga as a point favorite and the line has dropped to 8.5 as of Tuesday.
UCLA gave highly respected and highly touted Arizona team all they wanted in the PAC 12 Tourney, losing by 6 to one of the nations best teams. They beat a solid SMU team on a gift from the refers no doubt, but the fact remains they won and beat a damn good 4 loss team there and also they just flat out beat up UAB in the round 2 and did not spend and extraordinarily amount of energy to do so. Any Steve Alford coached team as we all know is going to be fundamentally sound and have good guards.
Gonzaga is a damn good team, I have no doubts about that at all, but the fact remains when they step up in class and have to play someone above the pay grade of a St. Marys they struggle, and their record against PAC 12 teams is not impressive going just 3-7-1 ATS their last 11 against PAC teams. In comparison to their round 1 game laying 17 points to North Dakota State, a game they won by 10 points, laying over 8 here against a team who has nothing to lose and is a well coached and battle tested team, I will take the points all day long. Nothing comes easy this time of the tourney.
Scott Spreitzer
Michigan State vs. Oklahoma
Play: Michigan State -2
I'm laying the points with Michigan State on Friday. Tom Izzo once again has his team peaking at the right time as Michigan State has won six of its last seven games, including an upset win against Virginia on Sunday. The Spartans held the Cavaliers to just 29 percent from the floor while Travis Trice led MSU with 23 points. Oklahoma is only 2-8 ATS its last 10 games and is one of only two teams out of seven remaining from the overrated Big 12 conference. The teams have similar defensive stats but the Spartans, nailing 47 percent of their shots, are a better shooting team. And if you blindly played on Michigan State with Tom Izzo as coach in the month of March, you have amassed nearly 15 units of profit. His team has allowed just 63 ppg in 122 March tilts. I'm recommending a play on Michigan State minus the points.
Vernon Croy
Michigan State vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma +116
This pick falls into one of my NCAA-B systems and the Sooners should be favored in this game however public perception says that the Spartans are the better team so the books have adjusted the line accordingly. The Sooners play out of the toughest conference in the country while the Spartans play out of the 4th toughest conference according to the RPI ranks. Michigan State has played solid defensively so far and that is why they made it to the Sweet 16 however Virginia should have beat them by double digits is you watched the game and looked at the game recap. Virginia had 17 more shots than Michigan State but they shot just 29.8% from the field and went just 2-17 from beyond the arc. Virginia just had an off game offensively and that will not happen against this Sooners team that averaged 71.9 ppg this season and has time to prepare for the Spartans. The Sooners will dominate the boards like they have done over their last 5 games averaging 40.6 rpg compared to their opponents who are averaging just 32.8 rpg against them. Defensively the Sooners have allowed an average of just 63 ppg over their last 5 games which is good enough to beat any team. The Sooners are the better FT shooting team hitting 73.8% on the season compared to Michigan State who shot just 63% from the line and this is a huge advantage for the Sooners if the game is on the line. The Sooners also happened to play a pretty darn good Wisconsin Badgers team earlier in the season and they out-rebounded the Badgers but turned the ball over 21 times against a Badgers team that averaged just 7 turnovers per game this season. The Sooners would have won that game if it was not for so many turnovers as they trailed by just 1 point at the half against the best team in the Big Ten Conference and now they face the 3rd best team in the Big Ten. The Sooners are 15-6 SU in their last 21 games when playing a good defensive team like the Spartans who allow less than 64 ppg and I do not anticipate this game to be close Friday night. Look for this line to move to favor the Sooners before Friday so get your wagers in now.
Mike Davis
Kent State (+1) over Northern Arizona
My spreadsheet has Kent State winning this game by a final score of 70-63. The key components in this matchup are: Recent form and Kent State's offensive efficiency. Kent State played a much tougher schedule than Northern Arizona, and the Golden Flashes beat some solid teams during the season. They have played really well in this tournament, and I'm confident that trend continues Friday night vs. a marginal Northern Arizona team. Kent State ranks 80th in the country in offensive efficiency, and I look for them to get very good looks at the hoop vs. the Lumberjacks. The Golden Flashes are a little better at every position, and I look for them to go on the road and win, again.
Allen Eastman
Atlanta over Miami
I have posted six straight winning baseball seasons, and MLB Opening Day is right around the corner! I want to get lucky No. 7 in a row this year, and you can take advantage of our 3-for-1 MLB Specials and our Early Bird Pricing. I am still focused on the NBA as well. And Atlanta is focused on closing down a record-breaking season. The Hawks were blown out at home recently, and that won’t happen again twice in the same week. Atlanta has gone 13-6 ATS against the rest of the Eastern Conference, and they won’t hold back going up against one of their most hated rivals. Miami is just 15-20 on the road this year, and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games overall. This will be their fourth road game in six days, and Atlanta is just too tough of a place for opponents to win. The Hawks won the last meeting in this series last month even though they rested three starters. Everyone should play and play well tonight. Atlanta will win this one by double-digits.
Strike Point Sports
UCLA / Gonzaga Over 144
We have a big 6-Unit Game of the Month available from one of Saturday's Elite Eight games, but first have a look a the total from Friday's Sweet 16 match-up between the Bruins and Bulldogs as a free play. Both these teams want to get up and down the court. But more importantly for UCLA, if they have any hope of upsetting the ‘Zags and moving on, they need to have a strong offensive performance. Gonzaga scores the ball at an efficient rate. UCLA, too, is capable of creating a fast tempo and will look to match Mark Few's pace. I think the Bruins will find it tough to get enough key stops to win this game. However, I expect the momentum earned from their first two wins in the tournament to propel them forward enough to help cover this number as well as make it a fairly high-scoring game that goes over the posted total.
Dave Cokin
Duke -5.5
Let's get the obvious out of the way here. Duke will be public chalk in this game and that's not something that thrills me from a wagering standpoint. But while I'm one who prefers to go against the grain when I can, if I think the popular favorite is the right side, I'm generally going to go ahead and play it regardless.
Larry Krystkowiak has done a truly phenomenal coaching job at Utah. He took over a program that has absolutely bottomed out and getting the Utes to this level so rapidly is nothing short of incredible. Make no mistake, there's nothing fluky about Utah. They're balanced, they're big and they're legitimate.
However, I'm liking this Duke entry more and more. It really has become a true addition by subtraction scenario for the Blue Devils. Since Coach K decided to give Rasheed Sulaimon the boot, Duke has become a better basketball team. They're 14-1 since his departure and that record has been achieved against some very talented opposition.
My key for this game is not in the numbers. Fact is, I think I could use the math to build a case for the underdog if I was inclined to. My take is that Duke is playing such good offense right now, I believe they can get good looks and cash in regularly, even against a very tough Utah defense. If that happens, I don't see Utah keeping pace for 40 minutes.
I'll also toss in the moment as a potential factor. I'm certainly not going to say with any degree of certainty that Utah gets overwhelmed by the pressure that comes with playing in the Sweet 16. But I think it's a possibility. Duke has been prepping for this moment all season, and I will speculate that this could be an advantage for the Blue Devils.
Is this as strong an opinion as a typical regular season game where I can implement all kinds of variables? Nope. That's one of the things that, at least for me, makes the post season less of a certainty than the regular season. The numbers are razor sharp and the spread is frequently a coin flip right to the finish. So yeah, there's a grain of salt recommendation here. But I'm seeing Duke as the winner here and while the line is surely no bargain, I prefer the Blue Devils minus the points.
Art Aronson
Kent State vs. Northern Arizona
Play: Northern Arizona -1
The Lumberjacks have a clear advantage in hosting this CIT quarterfinal matchup in front of the home town crowd. Northern Arizona opened the Tournament with a 75-70 win at Grand Canyon and then followed it up with a 78-73 victory over conference foe Sacramento State in the second round. Kent State would beat Middle Tennessee State 68-56 in the first round and then would use a late rally to beat the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders 69-65 to advance to this point. KSU has won two straight on the road, but I think will run into a buzzsaw today as the Lumberjacks have won seven straight in front of the home town crowd. Also note that Northern Arizona is 9-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season, while Kent State is just 4-5 ATS when playing the role of underdog. I definitely feel that the LUMBERJACKS have enough significant advantages working in their favor today to warrant them a second look in this matchup.
SPORTS WAGERS
Gonzaga -8½ over UCLA
Steve Alford's Bruins caught a big break in the first round when they upset SMU on a goaltending call on a shot that had no chance of falling through. Things subsequently fell into place for UCLA when UAB upset Iowa State to set up a good situation for the Bruins in the last round. They knocked off undersized UAB by 17 points as a six-point choice and now they’re getting far too much credit for doing so. Now the Bruins must take a major step up in class, as they face a true #2 seed in the tournament. There's a sense of accomplishment for the Bruins just having gotten this far because of the exodus of talent they lost with a team that reached this stage last season as well. So let us repeat that. Do-it-all swingman Kyle Anderson, potent scorer Jordan Adams, athletic specimen Zach LaVine and David and Travis Wear made the Bruins a monster last season and they didn’t get by this same round. None of those five are on this year's team.
By contrast,Gonzaga starts five upperclassmen. Kevin Pangos, fellow four-year starter Gary Bell Jr. and Przemek Karnowski have all been in those roles for three tournament runs. Besides sixth man Domantas Sabonis, a freshman, the newbies are senior transfer Byron Wesley (playing in his first NCAA tournament after three years at USC) and Kyle Wiltjer, who merely won a national championship as a freshman reserve at Kentucky. Gonzaga didn't just win their conference, they dominated it. Pangos is one of the most experienced guards in the country and he plays like it, controlling the action on offense and doing whatever is required for his team to win.Gonzaga's versatility starts with Wiltjer, who is a threat inside and out and is always a dangerous outside shooter (he's making nearly half his 3s). Gonzaga is a serious threat to become the first West Coast team in the Final Four since UCLA in 2008. It's easy to write the Zags off as products of a weak schedule but Sunday's dominating win over Iowa was a reminder that Gonzaga has played like a legitimate No. 2 seed this season. We also love the fact that this game will be played in a domed stadium. The ball just doesn’t bounce the same or sound the same off the rim. The Zags deep experience figures to give them a huge edge in that regard, which is just another nugget that convinces us to lay the points in this mismatch.
Jim Feist
Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans
Pick: Sacramento Kings +7½
Sacramento is 12th in the NBA in scoring, 8th in assists and playing hard for the new coach, winning 4 in a row. DeMarcus Cousins scored 24 points, all but four coming in the first three quarters, and grabbed 11 rebounds to help the Kings beat the Phoenix Suns 108-99 on Thursday night. George Karl, hired last month during the All-Star break, said his players have been learning his system on the fly the past six weeks. New Orleans is 16th in scoring and has lost 4 in a row. The Pelicans are on a 1-5 ATS ATS run, as well as 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Kings are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, the road team is 5-1 ATS and the Kings are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in New Orleans.
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets
Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +12½
Edges - Timberwolves: 13-7 ATS as a double-digit dog when seeking same revenge from three losses-exact. Rockets: 4-7-1 ATS after facing New Orleans; and 6-9 SU and 5-10 ATS home before facing Washington. With Houston off a revenge win over the Pelicans and looking ahead to a revenger with the Wizards, look for the Rockets to fall to 2-6 ATS in their last eight games versus foes playing with same season triple revenge-exact there tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.
Rob Vinciletti
Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic +2
The Magic will look to rebound after losing here to Atlanta and welcome in a Toronto team that has failed to cover 10 of 13 times on the road off a home dog win after scoring 100 or more. Toronto has struggled failing to cover 8 of 12 this month. Conference home teams off a straight up and ats home dog loss where they score 90 or less and allowed 90 or more are 15-2 ats vs an opponent off a home dog win that scored 100 or more. Look for Orlando to get the cash tonight.
Soccer Authority
Spain vs. Ukraine
Pick: Spain -1.5
It's true that Spain were the biggest underachievers at last yeas world cup, but with a lot of "the old guard" now retired from International Football we should start to see the new generation gel.
We're playing Spain -1.5 (Asian Handicap) this means we need Spain to win by 2 clear Goals for the bet to pay.
If you look through Ukraine's recent form you may be fooled into think they have a chance in this game, we don't feel that's the case. They've had a string of easy games against the likes of Luxembourg, Belarus, Lithuania and Macedonia.
Today's match-up will be a serious test for Ukraine.
Spain come into this game with a very strong squad featuring some of the best players on the planet.
GK - De Gea (Arguably the best Keeper in the World)
Defenders: Pique, Sergio Ramos, Alba, and Carvajal
Midfield: Busquets, Isco, Iniesta, David Silva, Fabregas and Koke
Forwards: Morata, Alacer
Key Stat: Spain have won their last 14 Euro qualification games at home, scoring an impressive 39 Goals in the process
Verdict: Against higher ranked teams the Ukraine struggle on the road, expect Spain to dominate this one
Brad Diamond
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors -9½
Hard to believe the Lakers will have much engery left after their recent tussle. In the series last encounter the Lakers won at home 129-122 in OT...REVENGE TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TORONTO. Granted the Raptors have looked horrible recently vs. Chicago and Detroit both losses. Both this foe will invoke a tenacious approach for four quarters. Toronto has covered 7-of-10 in the series..