SPORTS WAGERS
Gonzaga -8½ over UCLA
Steve Alford's Bruins caught a big break in the first round when they upset SMU on a goaltending call on a shot that had no chance of falling through. Things subsequently fell into place for UCLA when UAB upset Iowa State to set up a good situation for the Bruins in the last round. They knocked off undersized UAB by 17 points as a six-point choice and now they’re getting far too much credit for doing so. Now the Bruins must take a major step up in class, as they face a true #2 seed in the tournament. There's a sense of accomplishment for the Bruins just having gotten this far because of the exodus of talent they lost with a team that reached this stage last season as well. So let us repeat that. Do-it-all swingman Kyle Anderson, potent scorer Jordan Adams, athletic specimen Zach LaVine and David and Travis Wear made the Bruins a monster last season and they didn’t get by this same round. None of those five are on this year's team.
By contrast,Gonzaga starts five upperclassmen. Kevin Pangos, fellow four-year starter Gary Bell Jr. and Przemek Karnowski have all been in those roles for three tournament runs. Besides sixth man Domantas Sabonis, a freshman, the newbies are senior transfer Byron Wesley (playing in his first NCAA tournament after three years at USC) and Kyle Wiltjer, who merely won a national championship as a freshman reserve at Kentucky. Gonzaga didn't just win their conference, they dominated it. Pangos is one of the most experienced guards in the country and he plays like it, controlling the action on offense and doing whatever is required for his team to win.Gonzaga's versatility starts with Wiltjer, who is a threat inside and out and is always a dangerous outside shooter (he's making nearly half his 3s). Gonzaga is a serious threat to become the first West Coast team in the Final Four since UCLA in 2008. It's easy to write the Zags off as products of a weak schedule but Sunday's dominating win over Iowa was a reminder that Gonzaga has played like a legitimate No. 2 seed this season. We also love the fact that this game will be played in a domed stadium. The ball just doesn’t bounce the same or sound the same off the rim. The Zags deep experience figures to give them a huge edge in that regard, which is just another nugget that convinces us to lay the points in this mismatch.
Utah +5 over Duke
The Blue Devils are 2-0 in this event and they didn’t just win, they crushed the opposition. We’ve seen some overreactions to teams that went 2-0 against the spread in the first weekend and under-reactions to teams that went 0-2 against the spread. Case in point was West Virginia/Kentucky last night. Bettors are not anxious to bet against Duke again after making that “mistake” not once, but twice in the last round. Combine the Dukies 2-0 against the spread record with 15 victories in their last 16 games, throw in their pedigree and popularity and what you have here is an inflated number that most will swallow. We also have the “double blow out angle” too. It applied to Arizona last night and it applies to the Blue Devils here. Like Arizona, Duke blew out its first two opponents in this event by 29 and 19 points respectively and now most bettors are getting behind them when it’s the wrong time to do so. We often say the best time to jump off a team is when everyone else is jumping on and that applies here. Oh, BTW, Arizona did not cover last night and never had the number covered once the entire game. Bettors should be aware that Duke’s offensive numbers aren't sustainable against Utah and the Irish aren't exactly a lockdown defensive club either. Aside from allowing 177 points in back-to-back games to NC State and Miami back in January, the Dukies also allowed and an alarming number of points to Syracuse, Va Tech and UNC. If Duke’s shooting is off, they are in serious trouble here.
Off all the teams in the Sweet-16, Utah’s first two games against Stephen F. Austin and Georgetown combined to be the lowest rated in terms of viewership. That makes the Utes far less appealing than a team that is the feature game almost every week throughout the entire year. Furthermore, Utah’s 57-50 win over Stephen F Austin was anything but a thing of beauty. Still, Utah is not a team you want to giving away points to because of their great defense and “Twin Towers”. Utah has two 7-footers in Jakob Poeltl and Dallin Bachynski. That takes away a lot of the effectiveness of Duke’s big man, Jahill Okafor. The Utes allowed an average of just 21 points per game in the paint this year, which is a remarkable number that the opposition has to deal with. The Utes held Arizona to just 63 points recently in a six point-loss and this isn’t step up in class. The Utes also have an outstanding guard in Delon Wright so the Dukies do not have an edge there either. Basketball at any level is all about matchups and here’s what we know for sure. Utah has an edge in defense, an edge up the middle and they’re equal to the Dukies in the all-important PG position. Duke has more shooters and can go off big time but it is rare to go off on this Utes defense. Distinct upset possibility.
Louisville -2½ over N.C. State
When a big underdog knocks off a #1 seed, the tendency is to overvalue that victory. Upsets happen in sports all the time for a variety of reasons. The Wolfpack’s upset win over Villanova as a 10-point pooch was impressive indeed but that was one game and too much emphasis is being placed on it. Villanova had a bad game and in these one and done situations, that’s all it takes to get eliminated. N.C. State looked great and that’s what the market remembers but you can't really apply much of it to this matchup. The Wolfpack play an attacking style of basketball and have decent size and length on the interior. However, State lives and dies by its trio of guards: Anthony Barber, Ralston Turner and Trevor Lacey. In its come-from-behind win over LSU, those three hoisted 45 of the team's 66 shots but hit on only 33 percent. That isn't going to work against Louisville’s defense. An ill-advised shot, and there will be plenty of those, or a costly turnover, and Louisville will assuredly make the Wolfpack pay on the other end. N.C. State went into Louisville on February 14 and won 74-65. That result also adds to the Wolfpack being overvalued here.
First, let us point out that when N.C. State went into Louisville back in mid-February it was at a time that the Cardinals were dealing with the disruptive Chris Jones. Ultimately Jones was suspended and subsequently given his walking papers. A week after being released by the team, Jones was charged with rape and sodomy of a woman and it rocked the University. We put no weight whatsoever on that loss by Louisville amid all the distractions. What sticks out about that game is that the Cardinals were a 10½-point favorite over the Wolfpack and now we get to spot a quarter of that price here on a neutral court at a time when Louisville’s focus will be much better. Furthermore, the top two seeds in the East region are gone and Coach Rick Pitino is at the helm. Pitino’s only loss in the Sweet-16 (11-1) came last year to Kentucky. Give Pitino a week to prepare, not to mention the last game film against N.C. State and he’ll make every necessary adjustment to punch his teams’ ticket to the Elite Eight. Once again we have to play the value. A month ago, Louisville was a 10-point favorite over N.C. State and today they are a 2½-point choice. That’s value.
SPORTS WAGERS
Calgary +155 over MINNESOTA
OT included. Minnesota remains one of the hottest teams in the league. The Wild have accumulated more points than any team in the league since the day they acquired Devan Dubnyk on January 15. That was 32 games ago and the Wild have picked up points in 25 of those contests. However, the Wild have been held to two goals or less in five of their last seven games. That includes their last two against Toronto and the New York Islanders. The Wild are only one of two teams to score two or less on the Maple Leafs in Toronto’s past 17 games. When a team is struggling to score goals, they are too big a risk when spotting significant weight. Although this is big game, the Wild host the Kings tomorrow night and that could take a little of their focus off of this one.
This bet isn’t about fading Minnesota. We were merely pointing out a couple of concerns regarding the Wild. This wager is about backing a team that has risen to the occasion every single time they have been written off. Once again the Flames are being written off, as they fell out of playoff contention when Los Angeles defeated the Islanders last night and leapfrogged over them. Don’t write them off just yet. The Flames are not only resilient, they’re dangerous as hell. Calgary is coming off a very uncharacteristic game against Dallas in which they lost 4-3 in OT. Uncharacteristic because they took seven minors and spent 14 minutes killing them. Dallas scored once in those seven PP opportunities, which ultimately was the difference between winning and losing. However, Calgary is the least penalized team in the NHL and we can assure you that 7 minors won’t happen again under Bob Hartley’s watch. Calgary’s playoff fate will be decided by what they do in their next five games. The Flames embark on a five-game trip beginning with this one. Calgary will leave nothing on the table here. What we’ll get out of them is a 110% effort, focus and hard work. The Flames have proven over and over again this year that they are very capable of competing with any team when it counts most so give them a seriously legit shot of emerging victorious here as well.
Tony Acosta
UCLA vs. Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga -8.5
UCLA has advanced to this game by beating the sixth-seeded SMU Mustangs 60-59 when guard Bryce Alford got credit for his ninth three-pointer of the game on the controversial goaltending call in the final seconds. The Bruins then faced a 14th-seeded UAB Blazers that had pulled the upset of the third-seeded Iowa State Cyclones. Tonight they face a far superior Gonzaga, a team that has already beaten them 87-74 at home. The slipper falls off Cinderella tonight. Give up the points as Gonzaga should win by double digits to advance to the Elite Eight.
AC Dinero
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +3.5
Not going to bore you with stats on this one. Golden St has the edge in them and is a very good team. Memphis is a solid team in thier home right. THis selection is totally based on the fact that Memphis was embarrassed at home by Cleveland in their last game. We expect a spirited effort in front of the home crowd for some redemption
Brian Hay
Michigan State vs. Oklahoma
Play: Michigan State -1.5
The only team left in the tournament from the Big 12 is Oklahoma and I feel the Sooners will be packing after tonight. OU has been a terrible investment recently going 2-8 ATS in their last 10. Mean while, Michigan State is peaking. The Spartans have won 6/7 with their only loss to Wisconsin in overtime. This team is big, physical, and athletic plus with Izzo you know they have a coach that knows how to win in March. They advanced here by beating the #1 defense in the country in Virginia. They have reached the round of 16 for the fourth consecutive year (7-of-8). They are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight out of conference. Oklahoma beat Albany and Dayton to get here. Big deal! The Sooners have covered just one of their last seven when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or higher. The Spartans are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 against the Big 12.
Dave Price
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Los Angeles Lakers +8½
The Lakers have quietly been one of the best teams at the pay window over the past month-plus. They have gone 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall, yet they continue to be undervalued because the betting public wants nothing to do with their 19-51 record on the season. It's clear that this team has not packed it in despite its record. The Lakers have only been beaten by double-digits once in their last 17 games overall. They even covered in that game in a 10-point loss at Oklahoma City as 10.5-point underdogs. Toronto has no business being this heavily-favored with how it is playing right now. It is just 5-13 SU in its last 18 games overall. It has been playing without its best player in Kyle Lowry over the last few games, and he is expected to miss tonight's contest as well with a back injury. The Lakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight against the West.
Jimmy Boyd
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio Spurs -9
First glance at this line and your instinct is to take the Mavericks and the points, as Dallas just beat San Antonio at home on Tuesday 101-94 as a 3.5-point dog. I however, believe the smart play here is to lay the points and back the Spurs at home, where they have won 7 of 8 with all 7 wins coming by at least 9 points.
In the last 68 games where you have two teams playing for the second time in less than a 5 day span, home favorites of 9 or more have covered the spread 60% (40-27-1) of the time if they lost the previous matchup on the road. This system tightens up to 63% (40-24-1) when the home favorite was listed as a road favorite in the previous loss.
It's also worth noting that the Mavericks are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games in the 2nd half of the season against up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots/game and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games in the 2nd half against teams scoring 99+ points/game. Spurs on the other hand are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games in the 2nd half against teams outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg and have won these by an average of 14.8 ppg.
Brandon Lee
UCLA vs. Gonzaga
Play: UCLA +9
The public still can't get over the fact that they feel UCLA doesn't belong in the tournament. That combined with Gonzaga coming off one of their best performances of the season in their win over Iowa in the Round of 32 and we find an inflated line here on the Bulldogs. UCLA isn't just capable of keeping this game close, they have what it takes to pull off the upset. The Pac-12 has been better than anyone expected in the tournament and 9-points is simply too much. An interesting note to make about Gonzaga's win over Iowa is they shot a ridiculous 61.5% from the field. The Bulldogs are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after a game where they connected on 55% or more of their shots from the field.
Jack Jones
Utah vs. Duke
Play: Duke -5
Duke (31-4, 15-3 ACC) has been the single-most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament up to this point. After destroying Robert Morris 85-56, the Blue Devils took a big step up in competition against San Diego State in the Round of 32. They passed with flying colors in a 68-49 victory over the Aztecs.
Known as a potent offensive team, the Blue Devils won their game with San Diego State because of defense. They limited the Aztecs to just 19-of-58 (32.8%) shooting for the game. They proved they could win a different style, making 30-of-55 (54.5%) from the field in a game that was played at a snail’s pace. All-American Jahlil Okafor led the way with 26 points, Justice Winslow had 13 points and 12 rebounds, and Quinn Cook added 15 points in the win.
Utah is a team that played a similar style to San Diego State. It relies on defense to win game, and I just don't believe it has the kind of offensive firepower that will allow it to hang with the high-octance Blue Devils in this one. Duke also showed what it was capable of defensively against SDSU. This is a reasonably low number (-5) for the Blue Devils to have to cover given how well they are playing right now.
Duke is now 14-1 in its last 15 games overall. Each of its last six wins have come by seven points or more, including five by 19 or more as it is clearly playing its best basketball of the season. The Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in non-conference road games this season. Duke is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. The Blue Devils are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. Pac-12 foes.
Will Rogers
Dallas at Edmonton
Play: Over 5½
The Dallas Stars have picked up pace at the end of the season, winning four straight and seven of their last eight. They've had little trouble finding the net in recent games and are visiting an Edmonton Oilers team that has lit up the lamp plenty of late as well. The Stars are coming into this game as a massive favorite, but I think the hosts will give them a run for their money in a high-scoring affair.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Offensive Qualities - Dallas has scored four goals in each of its last three games. Jamie Benn is on a four game point-streak over which he has notched four goals and four assists and he has one goal and two assists over the first two meetings with Edmonton on the season. Edmonton has won three of its last five while totaling 17 goals, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has four goals and three assists in those games. The last time Dallas and Edmonton faced off was on Dec 21st here in Edmonton in a game the Stars walked away as a 6-5 winner in a shootout.
2. Special Teams - The Stars have scored four goals over their last 13 opportunities to play with the man advantage and will be up against one of the worst penalty kill units in the NHL here. Edmonton was a perfect 1-for-1 on the power play its last time out, and has 12 goals over its last 38 chances.
3. X-Factor - Seven of the Stars last eight away from home have gone over the total.
Bryan Power
Sacramento vs. New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans
These teams have been trending in opposite directions lately w/ the Kings winning four straight and the Pelicans losing that many in a row. But what both have in common is that they'll be watching the playoffs, like you and I. That all being said, look for New Orleans (at home) to bounce back w/ a big win tonight.
The Kings' four game win streak has really come out of nowhere and in handicapping this particular matchup, I was shocked to find they are 5-0-1 ATS/5-1 SU this season as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. A couple things to consider here: (1) the four-game win streak saw them win three times at home over Eastern Conference foes and (2) this team has only 10 road wins all year while giving up 107.8 PPG.
Anthony Davis is too good to let the Pelicans go on losing for this long and two of the team's recent defeats have come by just two points, including Wednesday at home to Houston. But this is a drop in class that they should handle w/ ease considering they are 7-3 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss this season.
Wunderdog
Boston @ New York
Pick: Boston -9.5
Danny Ainge pretty much waved the white flag on this season, dealing his top two players in Green and Rondo, and has stockpiled draft picks in an effort to secure a bright future for the Celtics. Surprisingly, the deep cast of average players have responded to a soft NBA Eastern Conference. If the season ended today, Boston is a playoff team. They have a good chance to enhance that position tonight against a New York Knicks team that has certainly packed it in for the season. The Knicks' woeful offense has topped the 100-point mark just two times in their last 24 games in regulation minutes, while their last eight opponents have averaged 105 points per game. Boston has played well over the line at 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33, while the Knicks have laid down after a 10+ point home loss, having gone 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 following one.
Chris Jordan
Taking a look at UCLA tonight in the bigger dance, as I like the Bruins plus the points against Gonzaga.
I've seen Gonzaga play, and I wasn't impressed. I didn't get a chance to see the Bruins when they played in Vegas, but I'm still impressed. Just proving to all the big mouths who said they didn't belong that they do has been a treat, as it's always hilarious to see those who think they know everything put in their place.
The Bruins are doing just that in this tournament.
They started by shutting down SMU and legendary coach Larry Brown, and before you start clamoring about a goaltending call, let's look at the fact UCLA was in that position to win in the first place. If it wasn't good enough for an at-large bid, why was it able to stay that close?
Next up, the Bruins made the UAB Blazers look like a team that didn't belong in the event, routing them, 92-75, as Tony Parker scored 19 of his career-high 28 points in the first half and grabbed 12 rebounds to lead the charge. Bryce Alford had 22 points and Normal Powell finished with 15 for 11th-seeded UCLA, which has the shooters and overall talent to win this game outright.
UCLA has proven the Pac 12 didn't have a down year, but that the conference simply had a very competitive year. And other than the Arizona Wildcats, the rest of the pack was very close.
These two, by the way, met in December and Gonzaga won, 87-74. Doesn't mean much to me, as the Bruins have improved since then, and they're playing for purpose - and their lives - right now. And if we're going to bring up earlier-played games, there were non-conference contests agasint Oklahoma, North Carolina, Kentucky and Alabama to consider.
Believe me, the Bruins are going to contend for the W in this one, and if Gonzaga isn't careful, it might let UCLA steal this one outright with a late surge, while once against silencing the big mouths.
5* UCLA
Scott Delaney
My free winner is on Duke tonight, laying the points to Utah in what should be a rather easy win.
I'm not one of those people who is impressed by the Pac 12, thinking the members who opened this event 7-0 are proving a damn thing. Doesn't matter to me. Not when you're talking about the ACC. Big difference in college basketball.
Duke has seven wins against the remaining tournament field, with five of the seven wins coming by 10 points or more. And, Duke is 7-2 on the year against ranked opponents, including a 4-1 mark against teams ranked in the top 10 of the Associated Pres Poll.
The Blue Devils are in this round because of a solid win over a well-coached San Diego State team, as Jahlil Okafor scored 26 points on 12 of 16 shooting from the field, while adding six rebounds, two assists and three blocks in the win. Quinn Cook added 15 points and five rebounds against the Aztecs.
Duke shot a blistering 54.5 percent (30 of 55) from the floor as Okafor, Cook and Justise Winslow combined to shoot 24 of 39 (.615) from the field.
Okafor, Winslow and Tyus Jones comprise one of the top trios in the country, and I just don't see Utah matching the talent of the Blue Devils in this game.
Lay the points with the Blue Devils.
2* DUKE
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Friday night is the Charlotte Hornets plus the points at Washington.
Charlotte may own just 2 straight up wins over their last 9 games, but Washington is currently mired in a 4 game straight up and against the spread slide, and Washington has certainly struggled in recent series meetings against Charlotte.
The Hornets have won and covered 5 of the last 6 series meetings, and they have also gone 6-2 against the line the past 8 times they have faced the Wizards.
Grab the points with the road dog here, as the Washington series slide continues.
3* CHARLOTTE