Gabriel DuPont
The SMART INTANGIBLE working with Cleveland - Cleveland (47-26) is in on a four-game win streak, a run that began with a 117-92 home win over these same Brooklyn Nets. The Cavs have also won four straight in this series, having won those games by an average of 20 points - and three of those victories came this season.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against Brooklyn - The Nets (30-40) are driven right now, I understand that, as they're a half game behind Boston for the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference. But while they play nine of their final 12 in Brooklyn, make note the team's 4-12 home record leaves one to wonder if they'd be better served traveling. Homecourt is not an edge with this team.
Why CLEVELAND is my SMART PLAY in this game - The Nets have lost five of six at the Barclays Center, while the Cavs have won five of six on the road as well as four straight overall. Cleveland is playing the best basketball in the NBA right now, as it's off on an NBA-best 28-6 run dating back to Jan. 15.
After Wednesday's 111-89 thumping in Memphis, the Cavs have now outscored opponents during their the winning streak by an average magin of 17.0 points, while limiting foes to just 90.8 points per contest.
1* CLEVELAND
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Kings plus the points at New Orleans.
This is too many points for the playoff-seeking Pels to be laying to a Kings team that did beat them the last time they came to the Crescent City back in November. It is also a Kings team that has won their last 4 games straight up.
New Orleans has lost 4 in a row, and they have also dropped 5 of their last 6 against the spread.
Pelicans stop their slide, but they don't do it by enough points to get the cover against the spread.
Take the Kings plus the points.
1* SACRAMENTO
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks. At the time of this writing, the Spurs are laying around 8 or 8 1/2 points in Vegas and offshore. And why shouldn't they be? I actually listed the Spurs as 10-point favorites in my initial point spreads, so 8 or 8 1/2 is just the break I was looking for.
There are a number of reasons the Spurs are the right play here. For starters, they have a HUGE home court advantage. They are 27-6 at home while the Mavs are a mere 20-15 on the road.
The Mavs are also struggling ATS recently, posting just a 2-8 record ATS in their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Spurs are 7-3 ATS in that same span and seemingly getting better with each home game. In fact, their last home game was probably their most complete of the year.... a 40-point win over the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Dallas is struggling to gain any ground on the Spurs or any other team in front of them in the west for that matter, so they're going to have to be content with the #7 seed, unless they fall so flat on their face than they slip behind OKC into the 8th seed.
Regardless, the Spurs are nearly unbeatable at home and have already beaten Dallas there once. This game probably won't be a 40-point beatdown, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was at last a 15 point win.
Take the Spurs as your free play of the day.
1* SAN ANTONIO
Harry Bondi
GONZAGA (-8.5) over UCLA
We had another winner on Wednesday with Wisconsin running our record too 13-4 the last 17 days. Tonight we look at the NCAA Tournament game between Gonzaga and UCLA for your FREE Winner. Where Gonzaga has a huge advantage in this game is that all five guys that start as well as their top two guys off the bench are capable of scoring 15+ points a night. Only Kentucky can match that kind of scoring depth. The Zags lead the country in field goal percentage at 54% and they should shoot even better than that tonight against a porous Bruins defense that is giving up almost 70 points per game! UCLA couldn't keep pace with Gonzaga in an 87-74 loss in December at Pauley Pavillion ans will fare no better tonight. ZAGS!
Dr. Bob
Opinion - Detroit (-2) over ORLANDO
Detroit is playing well without leading scorer Greg Monroe, which doesn’t surprise me based on the plus-minus analysis I’ve done on the current rotation without Monroe. The Pistons are 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS the last 5 games, all without Monroe, while Orlando continues to struggle with just 1 win in their last 9 games. My ratings favor Detroit by 3 points and the Magic are just 12-24 straight up and 14-22 ATS at home. I don’t have enough line value to make this a Best Bet but I’ll consider Detroit an opinion at -2 or less.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Utah / Denver Under 189: Utah is not a team that gets sped up, no matter what venue they are playing at, while their defense has been excellent this year. The Jazz are first in the league in points allowed and have allowed 84.9 ppg in their last 15 games, allowing more than 92 points just twice in that stretch. Now they face a Denver team that was held to just 85 points in their last home game to a Sixers squad that was playing on the 2nd of BB nights. Denver will find it tough to score here and while their defense is nothing special they will be facing a Utah squad that really slows the pace on offense and they do average just 93.4 ppg on the road. The last 6 games played here between these teams have all gone Under the total and I expect this one to follow suit.
Memphis / Golden State Under 198.5: In their last game the Memphis Grizzlies allowed 111 points on this floor to the Cleveland Cavaliers. That is way out of character for this team and i look for them to really look to clamp down on the defense end of the floor. This is a team that allows just 94 ppg at home and they will be angry after allowing Cleveland 111 in their last game. The Warriors are a team that has been playing excellent defense of late as they have allowed just 93.2 ppg in their last 5 games and they have the best defensive FG% in the league. I know that Golden State can score, but with added importance on defense for the Grizzlies I see them holding the Warriors in check here, while on offense the Grizzlies will really look to slow the game down and not make this a track meet. Lower 190s at most here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Arizona -10.5 over Xavier: I know that Sean Miller has some ties with the Musketeers and some think he may not run up the score here, but still this Arizona team is much better than a middle of the pack Big East squad that really didn't have too tough a slate to get here. Xavier played well down the stretch and to get into the Big Dance, but still this was just a 9-9 team in a mediocre Big East conference this year and they did lose by 17 points in a step up game vs Villanova in the Big East finals. Arizona come sin having won 13 games in a row and have outscored their opponents by 25 ppg in their last 7 games. This is a team that went 19-2 vs Pac-12 competition this year and we have seen just how good this conference has been in the Big Dance. The Pac-12 is clearly better than the Big east and Arizona really dominate their conference this year and they should dominate a Xavier team that just doesn't have the offense or the defense to keep up in this one. Arizona moves on with ease here.
NC State / Louisville Under 130: Earlier in the year these teams put up 139 points, but i see this one much lower scoring than that. Louisville has really been an offensively challenged team down the stretch as they have averaged just 60.2 ppg in their last 5 games and just 60.9 ppg in their last 9 games. I see them having trouble scoring vs an NC State squad that has allowed 67.4 ppg on just 40.1% shooting in their last 5 games. The Wolfpack have been a rather average offensive squad down the stretch, averaging just 66.1 ppg in their last 8 games and I will expect them to struggle vs a Louisville team that has allowed just 54 ppg in the first 2 games of the tourney and just 59.5 ppg overall for the year. This is a tough defensive team that will not give up much here. This game should be a slow paced game especially down the stretch of it and with two poor shooting team vs two solid defenses teams this one should stay in the lower 120s.
Ian Cameron
UCLA vs. Gonzaga
Play: UCLA +8.5
This Sweet Sixteen contest is a rematch from a regular season meeting back in December at Pauley Pavilion when the Bulldogs easily defeated the Bruins 87-74 while covering as 5.5-point favorites. However, it is impossible to categorize the UCLA team that Gonzaga dominated in December with the UCLA team we are seeing here in March. The Bruins have grown up since then and played with much greater poise and both ends of the court. The Bruins are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games and the only defeat was a competitive 6-point loss to Arizona in the semifinals of the PAC-12 Tournament. UCLA has displayed versatility in the fact they can win with the offense and/or defense. They smothered SMU 60-59 in the first round and then rolled to a 92-75 blowout win over UAB.
It’s not easy to step in front of Gonzaga right now as the Bulldogs are a terrific and well balanced squad with four starters -- Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell Jr., Byron Wesley and Kyle Wiltjer -- who are all elite scorers. The Bulldogs played a solid opening game against North Dakota State and followed that up with a near perfect outing against Iowa in a 87-68 rout. Gonzaga shot 61.5% from the floor including 62.5% from the perimeter. They dominated the rebounding battle on the glass to the tune of 31-19 and only committed 11 turnovers. Often times, instead of looking for that same degree of dominance in a team’s next game, I like to look for a bit of a regression to the mean especially when the numbers were so off the chart. Gonzaga can’t play much better than they did against Iowa and now they must face what I think is a better opponent tonight and a higher pointspread. Take the underdog.