Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisville -10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisville is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games so they obviously know how to prepare for their opponent. The Cardinals defense has been remarkable throughout the Big East Tournament and NCAA Tournament. In their last five games they have held opponents to 55.4 points per game while scoring 76.4 per game giving them an average margin of victory at 21 points.
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There are few teams in college basketball that can force turnovers like Louisville does. They average 20 forced turnovers per game while committing only 13 of their own. That should have this Ducks team scared coming into tonight’s matchup. Oregon has put together a solid season, but they have not been consistent. The Ducks are 3-11 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. They are outmatched from every angle against the best team in college basketball and it will certainly show tonight.
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Louisville -10 over OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In bringing Saint Louis' season to a surprising, abrupt end last Saturday, Oregon played one of the most impressive games of the entire tournament, dismantling the Billikens 74-57. The same fate does not await the Cardinals here in this nightmarish mismatch for the Ducks. Against Saint Louis, the Ducks made 8 of 11 3-point attempts (72.7 percent), a rate far better than they usually shoot from downtown (33.2 percent on the season). Furthermore, the Billikens grabbed just three of 33 missed shots (a ridiculously low number) but Louisville ranks 14th in the country in offensive rebounding (38.5 percent of missed shots). Moreover, the Cardinals rank second in the NCAA in steals and turnovers, which jacks their defensive efficiency all the way up to the top of the charts (81.1 points per 100 possessions).
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Overall, Louisville has outscored opponents by a whopping 34.5 points per 100 possessions, making it one of the most bulletproof teams in the tournament. And Russ Smith and Peyton Siva, both of whom rank in the top 30 in steal percentage, are going to have a field day with this matchup because the Ducks' point guard duo of freshman Dominic Artis and undersized junior Johnathan Loyd have struggled with turnovers all season. Oregon’s 21.6 percent turnover figure makes them the 263rd-worst team in the nation in coughing up the basketball. There’s a strong chance that Louisville gets out to a nice lead, forcing the Ducks to play catch-up and that’s only going to make things worse. Oregon is not a strong shooting team. In order for them to compete with Louisville, it is going to have to work the ball inside and we’re not sure they’re capable of doing so against this elite defense. Basketball is all about matchups and for the Ducks this is the worst possible draw in the round of 16.
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Michigan State +122 over DukeFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What an intriguing match-up. Coach K versus Tom Izzo. This is going to be one of the most watched NCAA games in history and it should be a great one. You’re going to read about how Coach K has won six of the last seven meetings against Tom Izzo, including relatively recent early season affairs in 2010 and 2011. That’s nice, it really is but Duke had the horses in those games and easy it was not, as State covered the number in five of those seven losses. This time around, the Spartans have some significant edges. Duke is not known for its physicality, particularly that of big men Mason Plumlee and the struggling Ryan Kelly. The Spartans' low-post trio of Adreian Payne, Derrick Nix and Branden Dawson, who combined for 65 points and 49 points in their first two tourney games, is as tough and physical as it gets.
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We always stress looking at value. This game is very likely going to be won or lost on the glass. In that respect, the Spartans have an advantage and could gain a huge edge if Plumlee gets into foul trouble. After all, should that come to pass, who is going to rebound for Duke? That’s not to say the Dukies can’t win this game. They have some edges too. The Blue Devils play tremendous defense and any one of a number of good shooters could go off for a big game. However, in an evenly matched contest, where either team could just as easily win as the other, taking back a tag is the prudent move. Incidentally, Spartans point guard Keith Appling looks like he's good to go here after suffering minor knee and shoulder injuries last weekend.
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Michigan +119 over KansasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The two key players in this matchup are lottery picks Trey Burke for the Wolverines and Ben McLemore for the Jayhawks. However, McLemore has all but disappeared with a series of poor showings, going just 4-for-21 from the floor over his past three games while taking only 10 free throw attempts. Bill Self benched McLemore down the stretch of Kansas' win against North Carolina. That’s not how you want to go into a game against the Wolverines. The Jayhawks are smart and experienced but they lack toughness and they have some disturbing losses this season, especially the one to TCU. Additionally, confident point guards have given the Jayhawks trouble. They were not able to sufficiently slow down the likes of Keith Appling (Michigan State), Marcus Smart (Oklahoma State), Korie Lucious (Iowa State), and Pierre Jackson (Baylor) and now they have to deal with the best of them all in the unflappable Trey Burke.
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Michigan is wrongly billed as the dog in this game and it’s because it is considered too inexperienced with an eight-man rotation consisting of four freshmen, two sophomores and two juniors. We say, “big deal”. Michigan didn’t look so inexperienced against “Havoc” and one could argue that was a coming of age game against a very aggressive defense. Michigan made Shaka Smart’s group look silly. The Wolverines are second in the nation in offensive efficiency and first in turnover percentage. John Beilein's offense utilizes three and four guards at once and relies heavily on the 3-point shot and creating mismatches by setting ball screens. In Burke, Michigan has arguably the most dynamic offensive player in the country. Beilein can X-and-O with the best of them. Guards are of the utmost importance in a one-and-done setting like the NCAAs and Beilein has three sweet-shooting ones on his roster in Burke, Nik Stauskas and Tim Hardaway Jr. Despite what the numbers say and after seeing other Big-12 teams in this event tank badly, we’re not convinced that the Jayhawks are that strong. And after playing for two straight weekends in front of friendly crowds at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo., this trip to Arlington, Texas, might not be quite so friendly for Kansas. Wolverines move on.
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Florida 12½ over Florida Gulf CoastFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Teams that win its conference get an automatic bid into the main event. A bunch of weak clubs won this year, bumping FGCU from a likely 16-seed and an opening round date with Kansas to a 15-seed and a date with Georgetown. Many people believed that Georgetown was seeded too high and as it turns out, they were right. That was the Eagles first break. Then FGCU went up against San Diego State, which just fell apart, uncharacteristically running at a desperate tempo, hoisting 3-pointers and coughing up the ball on about one out of every four possessions. The Aztecs performance was a joke. Take nothing away from FGCU’s run to the Sweet-16 but this is the round where Cinderella stories come to die and we have no interest in wagering against a team that is going to win outright like the Gators will here.
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Florida is one of the three best teams in the nation on offense and defense, outscoring opponents by a gigantic 36 points per 100 possessions. The Gators shoot well from everywhere and they have firepower. Eight players average between 5.5 and 12.5 points per game. There are five legitimate 3-point shooters, including two game breakers, Erik Murphy and Michael Frazier II. All four players in the frontcourt rotation shoot at least 53 percent from the field. The Gators rebound strong on both ends of the floor. In short, they are an elite squad that had no sympathy for Northwestern State in their 79-47 opening round blowout. They followed that up with a 14-point win over a tough Minnesota outfit. Florida is most assuredly a blowout team. Incredibly, 26 of its 28 wins have come by 13 points or more. The Gators' only two "close" wins all season both came against Alabama by 10 and 12 points. The Eagles are a nice story but we’re sorry to say it all ends here and it ends in another Gator blowout.
Bob Balfe
Kansas -1.5 over Michigan
For me this game comes down to one solid fact. Michigan is very young. This line up is made up mostly of freshman and I think the stage is too big tonight. Kansas has the best freshman in the country, but other than that they are a veteran team. Even more mind boggling is McLemore has been struggling and Kansas still has been rolling. Tonight he will matchup with other freshman classmates on the Michigan side which will fuel him to prove he is the best freshman in the country. Take Kansas
Vegas Sports Informer
Florida (-13) over Florida Gulf Coast
Sorry FGCU, but your glass slipper falls off Friday night! Look for the Gators to play some tough in-your-face defense against FGCU, and if the Gators slow down the Eagles I believe this game gets out of control early in the second half. Florida just too good to be dominated by these young Eagles, and the feel-good story of Florida Gulf Coast comes to an end again Friday night. Florida is 18-5 ATS in their last 23 NCAA Tournament games, and this streak continues Friday. There are some very heavy hitters out here in Vegas that are putting big money down on the Gators. That is the side we want to be on, and right now this looks like one of the few teams that might be able to challenge Louisville for the National Championship. Go with the Gators.
Indian Cowboy
New Orleans over Miami
If there was ever an upset to happen or a giant killer that can take down the Miami Heat, it is these New Orleans Hornets. How lovely does it set up for the NBA. Think about it. You have the young and athletic Hornet team that has won 25 games already this year (as of Wednesday afternoon of this week). This is the same team that just took down Denver's winning streak at home and now they get to take down the defending champs at home as well. New Orleans is a very talented team both down low and in the guard spot. This is the same team that has beat the likes of Denver by 24, Memphis by 7 at home, Boston by 1 as they have won 3 straight games as outright underdogs. Note that all of these teams are playoff-caliber teams and are teams that considered the NBA's elite. Look for New Orleans to once again step up with great defense, a wild atmosphere as New Orleans will ! be a solid active underdog as they likely cover this game and, yes, have a shot at winning as well as if they can take the down the Nuggets by a wide margin, they can be competitive against the Heat as well.
MATT RIVERS
Not at all buying the fact the Celtics were able to defeat the Cavaliers, as Boston still is just 1-5 straight up their past 6 contests.
Atlanta comes into Boston with wins in 6 of their last 9 games, and covers in 7 of those 9. The Hawks have an ax to grind with the Celtics since Boston did eliminate them from the postseason last May, but thus far the Hawks have dropped 2 of the 3 regular season meetings versus the C's.
With Kevin Garnett watching from the sidelines, I will give the nod in this one to the visiting Hawks to square the season series at 2-2.
Take Atlanta as your free play winner.
2* ATLANTA
CRAIG DAVIS
Today's free play is on the Atlanta Hawks over the Boston Celtics.
Boston was on a roll, then all of a sudden fell apart for a while before getting right back on track, courtesy of Jeff Green.
Green drove the lane with two seconds left, hitting the game-winning layup as time expired to beat the Cavs, 93-92... and that win snapped a five-game losing streak.
Now Boston does lead this season series, 2-1, and Paul Pierce apparently loves playing them as he's averaged 26 PPG in the two wins. But Atlanta has also had their fair share of success, not only vs. opponents but against these Celtics.
Boston has some ground to make up in the East because of their sloppy play over the past week-and-a-half. They'll get a team that sits in front of them currently.
Atlanta grabbed themselves a playoff spot Wednesday nigth with their sixth straight win of the season, beating Toronto 107-88. Though no one is talking about them, the Hawks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA and should keep it going tonight vs. Boston.
Take the Hawks as your free play of the day.
2* ATLANTA
WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami at New OrleansFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Under 190.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Heat take the floor for the first time after their 27-game winning streak was snapped in Chicago. It woulld not be surprising to see LeBron and company getting rest time here. Playing reduced minutes, will hamper the offensive ability of the Heat. New Orleans will be focused against the World Champs, and like to play a slow tempo. New Orleans has scored 100+ just one time in their last 10 games, and allowed 100+ just twice in their last 10, so the points will not come easy here from either side. The Hornets' extra slow on the pace vs. elite teams has resulted to a 9-2 mark to the UNDER in their last 11 vs. a team with a road winning percentage gretaer than .600. This one stays UNDER.
NellyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn / Denver OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver has lost back-to-back games after the long winning streak but now back at home the Nuggets should be poised for a rebound performance. Denver has shown some signs of trouble defensively however, allowing triple-digits in five of the last six games. This is a Brooklyn squad that is hitting its stride offensively having topped 100 points in five of the last seven games despite a grueling schedule with the last five on the road. Brooklyn will be comfortable running with the up-tempo Nuggets and these teams locked into an entertaining high-scoring game when they met in February, with Brooklyn winning 119-108. The 'over' is 30-23 in Nuggets games with a total posted at 2000 or higher and while this is a high number for a Nets team that has leaned 'under' on the season, Brooklyn has been a much worse defensive team statistically playing against Western Conference teams. This is a Nuggets team that has scored 105 points per game on average this year and this will be a hungry squad off back-to-back losses including a questionable finish against the Spurs. Only one time all season has Denver been held below 100 points in three consecutive games and after low-output games this week this could be a breakout opportunity.
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Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland CavaliersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that the 76ers will win this game by 5 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-9 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2007. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a losing record on the regular season. Philadelphia has struggled to find a consistent offensive presence, but will have an easier time against Cleveland tonight. SIM projects that they will score between 93 and 98 points and in past games they are 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when they score 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Moreover, the 76ers are a solid money making 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) versus poor teams being outscored by their opponents by 3+ points per game over the last 2 seasons. Take Philadelphia.
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Calgary Flames -145FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These two are close in the standings in the Western Conference, as they both still have hopes to get into the postseason this year. The Columbus Blue Jackets are 13-14-7 on the season, but the are just 3-10-2 on the road. After a very solid stretch of games where the Blue Jackets were winning a lot of games (and getting points in games they lost) they have now lost 2 straight road games. They've been outscored 12-6 in losses to Nashville, Vancouver, and Edmonton last night. The Blue Jackets will be playing their 3rd in 4 nights here in Calgary before heading home. The Calgary Flames are 13-15-4 on the season and a pretty solid 10-5-2 at home. Although they lost their captain in a trade the Flames pulled off a 4-3 victory against Colorado on Wednesday night. That win was their 8th straight home victory. The Blue Jackets are 15-46 in their last 61 road games dating back to last season. They've met twice this season splitting their meetings which were both in Columbus, but the Flames are 11-5 in their last 16 meetings in Calgary with the Blue Jackets. Columbus is in their final road game of their 4 game trip, and they are winless so far. The Flames have won 8 straight home games and I think they make it number 9 tonight.
Hollywood Sports
Fla Gulf Coast at Florida
Prediction: Under
Florida Gulf Coast is the toast of this Big Dance after upset wins against Georgetown and San Diego State as a 15 seed last week. This is a great time to look to history to see what happens with these lower seeded teams do in the Sweet 16 -- and the empirical evidence is that these games go Under the Total. The Eagles have won seventeen of their last twenty-one games -- and since 1997 in games played on a neutral court, when a team seeded in the 13-16 range enters the game having won at least fifteen of their last twenty games, these games have then gone Under the Total in 119 of the last 183 situations where these conditions applied. Take the Under.
Joe Gavazzi
Oregon vs. Louisville
Play: Oregon
No one is going to want to stand in the way of Louisville, expect you, me, and the Lone Ranger tonight. This is a very contrary selection. For, under veteran HC Pitino, Louisville enters on runs of 12-0 SU, 9-0 ATS as they seem destined to reach the Final Four. This year’s post-season success now runs Pitino’s record to 13-0-1 ATS the last two years in post-season play. Siva, Smith, and Ware will hawk the ball with defensive pressure on perimeter. Siva will run the attack with Smith scoring virtually at will. Tuhey would appear to greatly outman the Oregon backcourt of still less than 100% PG Artis, Dotson, and Lloyd. In Louisville’s 82-56 victory vs Colorado St, they had a 20/9 assist to TO ratio and shot 56% from the field, led by 27 points from Smith. They even outrebounded the best boarding team in the land, with a +3 margin. Up front, Behanan has teamed with Dieng to control the paint. Not sure, however, that they offer much of an edge against an Oregon front line that features Kazemi (Rice), who has averaged over 16 boards in first two games. And Singler, who plays with that winning pedigree. Most importantly, perhaps, is that the Ducks come in here flying under the radar as a shocking #12 seed. After sweeping a trio of games to win PAC 10 CCT, the Ducks have now gone 5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS of late, including consecutive upsets of OK St, 68-55, and St Louis, 74-57, each as 3 point dog. That was a very good St Louis team who they held to 38% from the floor and just 3-21 from the arc. Behind Kazemi, they recorded a +14 rebound edge. Most impressive, however, was an offense who against one of the best defensive teams in the country shot 53% from the field and 73% from the arc, knocking down 8/11 triples. Historically, in Sweet Sixteen, teams seeded 9 or worse following consecutive underdog victories are a very high percentage play against superior opponents who have covered their first two tourney games. Not easy to fade Louisville but Oregon is clearly the value side.
Dave Price
Boston Celtics -3
The Celtics got a much-needed win in Cleveland on Jeff Green's last-second layup to snap a five-game skid. That victory gives them something to build on as they head back home where they have won 11 of 13. Atlanta has been mediocre on the road, and this will be its fourth away contest in six days. In other words, I expect the Hawks to be rather road-weary this evening. Atlanta has had no success lately in Boston where it has dropped six in a row by an average of 8.3 points. Lay the points.
Tom Stryker
Brooklyn Nets vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets
Back on February 13th, Denver (+3) traveled to the Big Apple and got rocked by Brooklyn 119-108. It's time for the Nuggets to return the favor.
For those of you that plan on fading Denver on its homecourt, you better proceed with caution. Since the end of March last season, the Nuggets have ripped off an impressive 40-5 SU and 30-15 ATS record in their own backyard including a jaw-dropping 21-1 SU and 17-5 ATS in this set matched up against a foe that enters off a straight up win. With those two parameters live and Denver taking on an opponent that holds a won/loss percentage of .400 or better, this situation jumps to a profitable 17-1 SU and 16-2 ATS!
Off a pair of road wins at Phoenix and Portland, this will be a tough encore for visiting Brooklyn. Quietly, the Nuggets have won 17 straight inside the Pepsi Center and have dominated the Nets on this floor in the last five meetings winning all five by an average of 13.2 points per game.
Off road losses at New Orleans and San Antonio, the Nuggets will bounce back in a big way on Friday night against the overachieving Nets. Take Denver.